退隱前放點煙火:笑談丁香醫生說一口唾液測不出孩子的天賦智商如何。

@丁香醫生 最近工作太忙,所以我考慮逐漸淡出知乎,在此之前,有些事還是得做的。首先就是教育一下丁香醫生101條謠言一次全辟掉文章里的狂妄態度, 見下面的鏈接。

丁香醫生:101 條謠言,一次全辟掉(詳解版)?

zhuanlan.zhihu.com圖標

「事實上,我們的每條內容,都有寫過詳細的解釋,並且經過了醫學團隊的專業審核,對於科學性大家可以放心。」---丁香醫生

49. 一口唾液也測不出孩子的天賦智商如何。

當心!這種高科技騙局,你身邊肯定有人中招?

mp.weixin.qq.com圖標

我其實很好奇, 到底是誰給了丁香醫生醫學團隊如此大的信心,讓他們可以宣稱自己的科學性可以讓人放心, 對於不熟悉的領域,我一般都是先通過PubMed查詢文獻,然後才敢發表意見。

這個所謂第49號謠言的核心內容,是唾液裡面細胞 DNA通過高通量SNP晶元檢測後是否可以預測孩子的智商。我沒有丁香醫生那麼託大,所以我先查查文獻, 然後找到一篇靠譜的。

https://www.nature.com/articles/nrg.2017.104?

www.nature.com

The new genetics of intelligence

https://www.nature.com/articles/nrg.2017.104?

www.nature.com

The new genetics of intelligence

  • Robert Plomin
  • & Sophie von Stumm

Nature Reviews Genetics volume19, pages148–159 (2018) | Download Citation

Abstract

Intelligence — the ability to learn, reason and solve problems — is at the forefront of behavioural genetic research. Intelligence is highly heritable and predicts important educational, occupational and health outcomes better than any other trait. Recent genome-wide association studies have successfully identified inherited genome sequence differences that account for 20% of the 50% heritability of intelligence. These findings open new avenues for research into the causes and consequences of intelligence using genome-wide polygenic scores that aggregate the effects of thousands of genetic variants.

下面說說這文章說的什麼,首先,智商可以測量, 見下圖:

其次,研究發現受教育的年限是群體遺傳學中預測智商最好的因子。

2016年前,尋找聰明基因和預測智商的GWAS研究均宣告失敗, 結果無法重複。但是從2016年到2018年,這個領域取得重大進展,縱軸是對智商差異的影響百分比,橫軸是人群樣本的大小,具體見下圖:

究其原因,是因為研究智商時取樣的人群樣本數目低於20萬時效果很差,之前從幾萬人的研究中找出的IQ1隻能預測1%的智商差異, 圖中可以預測3%智商差異的EA2是從27萬人群樣本中分析得出的, 而今年從110萬人中找出的EA3, 可以預測11%的智商差異。

The current limit for the variance that can be predicted by GPSs is SNP heritability, which estimates the extent to which phenotypic variance for a trait can be explained by SNPs across the genome without identifying specific SNP associations. For intelligence, SNP heritability is about 25%. It is safe to assume that GPSs for intelligence using current SNP chips can approach the SNP heritability limit of 25% by amassing ever-larger GWAS samples and by using multi trait GWAS that include traits related to intelligence, such as years of education.

這段話的背景和大意是智商的一半是遺傳決定的,而SNP晶元最多能預測智商差異的25%,我引用這段話只是想說明,一口唾液是可以用來檢測孩子的智商差異的。不要期望是100%準確,因為遺傳因素僅僅決定智商的50%, 而這50%使用全基因組測序才能完全確定, 只覆蓋基因組一部分的高通量SNP晶元理論極限是可以預測25%的智商差異。

上面這篇文章是一篇綜述,27萬人具體的科研文獻可以參考下面這篇Nature Genetics文章。

Nat Genet. 2018 Jul;50(7):912-919. doi: 10.1038/s41588-018-0152-6. Epub 2018 Jun 25.

Genome-wide association meta-analysis in 269,867 individuals identifies new genetic and functional links to intelligence.

Abstract

Intelligence is highly heritable1 and a major determinant of human health and well-being2. Recent genome-wide meta-analyses have identified 24 genomic loci linked to variation in intelligence3-7, but much about its genetic underpinnings remains to be discovered. Here, we present a large-scale genetic association study of intelligence (n?=?269,867), identifying 205 associated genomic loci (190 new) and 1,016 genes (939 new) via positional mapping, expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) mapping, chromatin interaction mapping, and gene-based association analysis. We find enrichment of genetic effects in conserved and coding regions and associations with 146 nonsynonymous exonic variants. Associated genes are strongly expressed in the brain, specifically in striatal medium spiny neurons and hippocampal pyramidal neurons. Gene set analyses implicate pathways related to nervous system development and synaptic structure. We confirm previous strong genetic correlations with multiple health-related outcomes, and Mendelian randomization analysis results suggest protective effects of intelligence for Alzheimers disease and ADHD and bidirectional causation with pleiotropic effects for schizophrenia. These results are a major step forward in understanding the neurobiology of cognitive function as well as genetically related neurological and psychiatric disorders.

各位讀者,相信你們看到這裡的時候應該可以得出一個結論,那就是丁香醫生的專家團隊根本就沒有就這個問題查閱醫學文獻, 否則僅僅使用"智商「和 "遺傳」這兩個關鍵字,他們就能找出上面的綜述和研究文章,不會匆匆做出一口唾液無法檢測孩子智商的結論。

神鵰俠侶裡面楊過給郭襄過16歲生日的時候放了煙火, 這篇文章算是妖怪退隱之前給你們放個煙花, 讓你們看看丁香醫生所謂專家團隊的科學性是如何可笑,大家齊樂。

當然,我說的結論是國際研究團隊使用的SNP晶元,支持丁香醫生的人可以說丁香醫生闢謠文章裡面說的是淘寶上的SNP晶元,這就像以前的一個笑話里說的,井外的人跟井裡的人說天空好大,井裡的人說井外的人胡說, 從井裡看,天空就鍋蓋那麼大。和稀泥的人就說,別吵了,你們都對。


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