雙語閱讀｜區塊鏈和加密貨幣：少點改變世界的雄心 多腳踏實地做應用

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A FAVOURITE comparison drawn by cryptocurrency and blockchain enthusiasts is with the early world wide web. These technologies are only a decade old, they say. Trying to predict how they might change the world in the future is next to impossible. Who could have known in 1998 that there would be such a thing as Facebook?

加密貨幣跟區塊鏈粉絲喜歡與早期的互聯網做對比，認為這些互聯網技術都是十年前才出現的。要預測這些技術如何改變未來世界近乎不可能。誰能在十年前的1998年預料到Facebook這樣新事物呢？

The comparison is carefully chosen. The web has been remarkable for the speed with which it has conquered the world. The first web page appeared on the internet in 1991. A decade later Amazon was booking revenues of $3.1bn a year; America Online, an early internet-service provider, had more than 20m customers; and half of Americans had internet access.

這種對比是經過精心挑選的。網路的神奇之處在於征服世界的速度。1991年首個網頁問世，僅僅十年，亞馬遜年的預期收入達31億美元；早期的網路服務提供商美國在線擁有逾2000萬用戶；近半數美國人上網。

By that yardstick, cryptocurrencies have made very modest progress. But then it is highly unusual for a technology to fare as well as the web has done. A rule of thumb for venture capitalists is that nine out of ten projects they back will fail. Not every new thing is the next big thing.

照此標準，加密貨幣的進步可算是四平八穩了。其技術就像網路一樣不同尋常。風投家的一個經驗法則是，他們投的項目里有90%都成功不了。並非所有新事物都能成為下一個奇蹟。

Better, then, to evaluate cryptocurrencies and blockchains on their own merits. Start with cryptocurrencies. It is clear that, a decade after they were invented, their use for their ostensible purpose—as a means of exchange—is negligible. A lot of work is being done to fit them better for this task, so that could change. But if their use is to become widespread, they will have to offer something that existing currencies do not. Bitcoin』s original selling- point—freedom from any kind of central control—holds little appeal for ordinary people, says Gary Barnett of GlobalData. Most of them just want a payment system that is safe and easy to use. And given cryptocurrencies』 shortcomings—the lack of consumer protection, dizzying price fluctuations, fiddly software, slow throughput and a voracious appetite for electricity—at the moment they fail that test.

因此，不如就加密貨幣及區塊鏈自身優點來作評價。先說說加密貨幣。顯而易見，面市十年後，用作表面上想達到的目的——作為交換中介——微乎其微。為了讓它更好地達成這個目標，技術人員做了大量調整工作，因而也要進行改變。 不過，要想實現大規模應用，加密貨幣必須擁有現有貨幣所不具備的東西。GlobalData的加里?巴尼特表示，比特幣最初的賣點——擺脫任何形式的集中控制——並沒有吸引到普通用戶。大多數人不過是想要個安全易用的支付系統。想想加密貨幣的系列問題：用戶數據保護不足，價格波動異常，軟體複雜難用，數據處理緩慢，過度耗電——當前這些問題都過不了關。

One thing that might help, despite bitcoin』s anti-establishment roots, is more attention from regulators, to combat the epidemic of fraud and sharp practice in the field. Some cryptocurrency firms are focused on exactly that. Chainalysis, for instance, hopes to help firms analyse their clients』 cryptocurrency trading to comply with anti-money-laundering rules.

有一點或許管用，更吸引監管機構——儘管比特幣的本性是反建制的——打擊金融普遍存在的欺詐和不正當行為。

Some think a more radical approach is needed. Despite the absence of a centralised operator, says Angela Walch, a lawyer and member of the Centre for Blockchain Technologies at University College London, the coders whose efforts establish the system in the first place and the miners who maintain a cryptocurrency』s ledgers do hold power. So she thinks there is a case to be made for treating both coders and miners as fiduciaries, imposing a legal requirement on them to act in the interests of the system』s users.

有人認為可以更進一步。倫敦大學學院區塊鏈技術中心律師兼職員安吉拉?沃爾奇表示，儘管缺乏集中操控系統，起初負責構建系統的程序員和操控加密貨幣總賬挖礦工手握大權。因此，她認為，不妨將程序員跟挖礦工視為委託人，依法要求其維護系統使用者的權益。

Going round in circles

原地打轉

Even a well-regulated cryptocurrency, though, would be subject to the 「network effects」 that have led to an oligopoly in social media. New users tend to choose the biggest firms because everyone else is already subscribing to them. In the same way, a currency』s utility depends on other people using it. 「In order for merchants to start accepting cryptocurrencies, there needs to be demand [from customers],」 says Kim Baeur at Chainalysis. 「But in order for customers to want to use it, they have to expect to be able to spend it.」 Cryptocurrencies would have to offer a compelling advantage over other payment mechanisms to break that logjam. But since speculators love them, they are not likely to disappear either.

然而，即便監管良好的加密貨幣也必將受到「網路效應」影響，因為社交媒體存在壟斷。新用戶傾向於選擇業界龍頭企業，因為其他人早註冊了這些企業。同理，對某種貨幣的選用取決於其他使用者。「要使商家開始接受加密貨幣，就必須讓用戶對其有需求。」Chainalysis分析師金姆 鮑爾說道，「但為了讓用戶有使用慾望，他們必須指望能用的上它。」要打破這種僵局，加密貨幣必須相比其它支付機制具絕對優勢。可是，架不住炒家的喜歡，其他的支付機制也不太可能消失。

Blockc hains could be a different matter. Like cryptocurrencies, they have been oversold. Because of its decentralised nature, a blockchain will always be slower and more cumbersome than a standard database. But blockchain developers are trying to minimise those problems by doing away with features such as proof of work, which is necessary in a public system open to anyone but superfluous in a system designed for private use. As with cryptocurrencies, a sensible attitude to regulation helps. The most credible actors cite their compliance with regulations around finance, personal data and the like as a selling-point.

區塊鏈就要另當別論了。與加密貨幣一樣，區塊鏈也是被賣瘋了。由於它的去中心化特徵，相比標準資料庫而言，區塊鏈耗時長，過程也繁瑣。不過，開發人員試圖通過取消核實工作等方式，儘可能地弱化這些問題。核實工作在對外開放的公用系統中很有必要，但對個人用戶沒有價值。與加密貨幣一樣，對監管的明確態度是有益的。最可信的企業會表示他們遵守金融、個人數據等方面的規定。

For now, however, almost all blockchain projects remain experimental. Most will fizzle out. The less world-changing a proposed use, the better its chance of success. For example, the cryptographic structures that make data in a blockchain hard to change are fairly easy to introduce. When they add an extra layer of security to things like financial accounts or official documents, they could be useful.

然而，就目前而言，幾乎所有區塊鏈項目仍處於試驗階段，大多數項目會無疾而終。少去放眼於改變世界，這樣成功幾率就會大些。例如，加密結構能防止區塊鏈數據遭輕易篡改，就很容易獲得採用。如果加密結構能在財務賬戶或官方文件等數據上，另行增加安全層，那麼這種項目就很有實用價值。

A bigger prize awaits in the back office, reducing the time-consuming administration required for firms to talk to each other by providing a shared database which everyone can use. This may be easiest where existing systems are minimal and there is no incumbent centralised regulator. Two examples commonly cited are trade finance and international money flows.

後台需要有更多的投入，以人人可用的共享資料庫來減少企業之間對話所需的耗時管理問題。現有系統是最小的，又沒有集中監管機構，這實施起來應該是最容易的。貿易融資和國際貨幣流動就是常提不衰的兩個經典案例。

Other compelling uses may yet emerge. But it is worth bearing in mind that big IT projects—which is what blockchains amount to—tend to be cumbersome and slow even if they are undertaken by a single company. If they require several companies to work together, they will take even longer. So whatever happens, blockchain』s backers will need patience.

或許還會出現其他不同凡響的用途。值得注意的是，大型IT項目(區塊鏈實際也屬這類) 往往複雜繁瑣，發展緩慢，就算單由一家公司負責也是如此。如果需要多家公司合作，則耗時更長。因此，不管怎樣發展，區塊鏈支持者都得耐住性子。

編譯：李圓敏

編輯：翻吧君

來源：經濟學人（2018.09.01）

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