雙語閱讀｜區塊鏈和數字貨幣：豐滿的理想與骨感的現實

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JOSEPH KENNEDY, John F. Kennedy』s father, supposedly said that when he started getting share tips from his shoeshine boy, he knew it was time to sell. That was in the late 1920s. One investor in cryptocurrencies recalled that remark when he saw advertisements on the London Underground that seemed to suggest pensioners invest in bitcoin. 「Be More Brenda,」 said the poster, featuring a white-haired lady claiming to have bought bitcoin in under ten minutes.

據說，在20世紀20年代末期，約翰·肯尼迪的父親約瑟夫·肯尼迪曾說過，當他開始從給自己的擦鞋男孩那裡得到股票消息時，他知道是時候拋了。一位數字貨幣投資者看到倫敦地鐵上的廣告似乎在暗示退休人士投資比特幣，這時他想起了這件事。「比布倫達更快，」海報上寫道，配圖是一位白髮老婦人聲稱在10分鐘內買到了比特幣。

Cryptocurrencies are everywhere. According to one survey, 5% of Americans hold some cryptocurrencies—not bad for a financial product that is only a decade old. Bitcoin is the best-known, and in 2017 the dramatic rise in its price—from $3,000 in September to almost $19,000 by December—made headlines.

數字貨幣如今無處不在。一項調查顯示，5％的美國人擁有各種數字貨幣——這對於只有十年歷史的金融產品來說很不錯了。比特幣是其中最有名的數字貨幣，2017年價格大幅上漲 ——從9月的3,000美元增加到12月的近19,000美元 —— 一時間成為熱門。

It was invented in 2008 by a reclusive cryptographer going by the name of Satoshi Nakamoto. He was dissatisfied with the conventional financial system, so he wanted to create an electronic version of cash that did not rely on a central operator and was free from direct control by a government or central bank. The idea took off. These days anyone who wants to get into cryptocurrencies can weigh the relative merits of bitcoin, ether, Monero, Dash, Litecoin and thousands of others. Many of those who bought in early have, on paper at least, made astonishing gains. Bitcoin』s price in 2010 was around 6 American cents. Even at its current price of $6,470, it would provide an early investor with a handsome profit—though not nearly as handsome as if he had sold at the peak last December.

比特幣是由一位名不見經傳的密碼學家中本聰在2008年的概念。他不滿意傳統的金融制度，就想創建一個數字的現金交易制度，不依賴於集中式管理者，不受政府或中央銀行的直接控制。這個想法迅速風靡。如今，想要購買數字貨幣的人都會看重比特幣、門羅幣、達世幣、萊特幣等等數千種數字貨幣的相對優勢 。許多早期購買數字貨幣的人已取得了驚人的收益，至少在賬面上是如此。比特幣在2010年的價格約為6美分， 即使目前的價格為6470美元，也為早期投資者帶來高利潤 ——在去年12月在賣出，所獲利潤就不那麼可觀。

In keeping with their do-it-yourself image, cryptocurrencies have given rise to initial coin offerings (ICOs), a way for cryptocurrency companies to crowdfund themselves. Cash is pouring in. According to one estimate, from Coinschedule, a firm that tracks such things, by early August 706 ICOs had raised almost $18bn from a mix of institutional investors and individuals this year. That compares with just 221 ICOs in the whole of 2017, raising $3.7bn.

為了能夠「自食其力」，首次代幣發行（ICO）作為加密貨幣投資早期項目的一種方式開始興起，企業通過這種方式進行眾籌，得到滾滾財源。研究ICO事件的機構Coinschedule表示，到今年8月初，已有706起ICO融資，從機構投資者和個人投資者中籌集了近180億美元。相比之下，2017年全年僅有221起ICO融資，籌資37億美元。

Chain reaction

連鎖反應

Many of those startups hope to capture the benefits of blockchains, the technology that underlies cryptocurrencies. In essence, a blockchain is a database designed to be distributed among many users, to be immutable, to work without oversight from any central authority and to dispense with the need for its users to trust each other. These qualities, it is argued, make it suitable for a huge variety of new and exciting business applications, which many companies are now trying to explore.

區塊鏈是加密貨幣的基礎技術，許多創業企業希望能夠從中獲益。從本質上講，區塊鏈是一個資料庫，分布在許多用戶之間，是不可變的，不受任何中央機構的監管而獨立運行，也不需要用戶相互信任。有人認為，這些特點使其適用於各種新的業務應用程序，也許多企業正在努力探索開發這些應用程序。

For example, a blockchain』s immutability and distributed nature would seem perfect for streamlining supply chains. A widget manufacturer in one country, its shipping agent, its customer in another country and customs authorities on both the sending and the receiving end could all use the same database to track the widget. Another promising idea might be to provide an incorruptible record of transactions covering anything from property deeds to the provenance of diamonds.

例如，區塊鏈的不變性和分散式性質非常適合簡化供應鏈。一個國家的部件製造商，運輸代理商，其在另一個國家的客戶以及發送和接收端的海關當局都可以使用相同的資料庫來跟蹤。另外，區塊鏈在未來很可能會提供不可銷毀的交易記錄，涵蓋從房契到鑽石來源等所有物品。

According to Crunchbase, an industry consultancy, in the first five months of this year a total of more than $1.3bn of venture capital was invested in blockchain startups. KPMG, a large consultancy firm, reckons that the amount of money venture capitalists want to invest in such things outstrips the opportunities to do so. Established companies are rushing to catch up. Technology firms such as IBM, Oracle and Amazon are giving their customers the chance to experiment with blockchains. KPMG offers a service to advise clients on blockchains, as do most of its rivals. Diar, a consultancy specialising in cryptocurrencies, lists dozens of blockchain-related patent applications, filed by companies as diverse as Bank of America, Intel, a chipmaker, RWE, an electricity firm, and British Telecom.

根據行業諮詢機構Crunchbase的數據，今年前五月共有超過13億美元的風險投資用於區塊鏈創業企業。大型諮詢機構畢馬威（KPMG）估計，風投機構想要投資的金額遠遠超過這一類的投資機會。一些知名企業正在急於趕上時機。 IBM、甲骨文和亞馬遜等科技企業正在為其客戶提供試驗區塊鏈的機會。與大多數競爭對手一樣，畢馬威為客戶提供區塊鏈諮詢服務。加密貨幣專業諮詢機構Diar列出了數十項與區塊鏈相關的專利申請，申請的企業包括美國銀行，晶元製造企業英特爾，電力公司RWE和英國電信等。

A bit of a let-down

些許瑕疵

This Technology Quarterly will take a more sceptical view. It will point out that, despite a decade of development, bitcoin has failed in its stated objective: to become a usable currency. Security is poor (according to one estimate, around 14% of the supply of big cryptocurrencies has been compromised); its decentralised nature inevitably makes it slow; there is no consumer protection; and the price is so volatile that not many people would want to use it as a means of exchange for goods and services. Other cryptocurrencies suffer from similar problems. Few merchants accept them.

本期的技術季刊更多的是對其持懷疑態度。季刊的文章認為，儘管經歷了十年的發展，但比特幣的既定目標卻未達成：成為一種可用的貨幣。安全性很差（根據一項估計，大約14％的大型加密貨幣供應受到攻擊）; 它的去中心化不可避免地會造成運算速度緩慢; 沒有消費者保護機制;價格非常不穩定，沒有多少人願意將來交易商品和服務。其他的加密貨幣也存在類似的問題，很少有商家接受它們。

At the same time the technology』s built-in antipathy to regulation has attracted plenty of people who feel the same way for the wrong reasons. Some cryptocurrencies amount to Ponzi schemes, and unscrupulous ICO operators have swindled investors. America』s authorities are investigating allegations of widespread price manipulation. Social-media firms have banned advertisements for ICOs amid concerns about fraud. Anyone thinking of investing in such instruments will need to do a lot of homework first.

與此同時，該技術天然地不受監管特徵讓從多居心不良者覬覦。如一些加密貨幣變成了龐氏騙局，不擇手段的ICO運營商欺騙投資者。美國相關部門正在針對大範圍操縱價格的指控進行調查。由於擔心欺詐，社交媒體企業禁止ICO廣告。想要投資這些工具的人都必須先做很多功課。

Other drawbacks of bitcoin and such like are becoming increasingly apparent, too. The 「mining」 process required to verify all transactions is hugely power-hungry. Data centres have sprung up from Mongolia to Quebec, collectively consuming as much electricity as entire countries to run a system that cannot manage more than a handful of transactions per second.

比特幣以及其它數字貨幣的一些其他缺點也日益凸顯。驗證所有交易所需的「挖礦」過程非常耗電。從蒙古到魁北克，數據中心如雨後春筍般湧現，就算其系統每秒消耗一個國家所需的電量，也不足以完成幾筆交易。

The potential applications for the underlying blockchain technology look rather more attractive, but progress in developing them has been slower than hoped, and some apparent successes turn out to have been exaggerated. Because they are power-hungry and slow, the blockchains that drive cryptocurrencies have to be remodelled for use in business, which can make them less distinctive and more like other databases. Though the excitement surrounding the technology has provided a useful push to get interested parties around the table and start talking, most blockchain projects are still at the exploratory stage.

當前區塊鏈技術的潛在應用看起來更具吸引力，但開發的進度比預期要慢，一些明顯的成果最終看來是誇大其辭了。由於它們耗電，速度慢，支撐加密貨幣的區塊鏈必須進行改造才能用於商業，這使它們更像別的資料庫，無特別之處。雖然人們認為這項技術令人興奮，推動了感興趣的各方坐下來開始討論，可是大多數區塊鏈項目仍處於探索階段。

Putting a business on a blockchain is as complicated as any other big IT project. Those involved in the planning stage still have to ask the usual questions. What exactly is it meant to do? Why would an individual company want to sign up to such a shared venture? Who will design the system? Who will be in charge if things go wrong? And once a decision is made to build such a system, there will still be a lot of grunt work to be done. All this suggests that, whatever the benefits of blockchains, they will not arrive overnight.

區塊鏈業務就像任何其他大型IT項目一樣複雜。那些參與規劃階段的人仍然需要提出常見的問題。它究竟是什麼意思呢？為什麼一家公司想要投入這種合資企業？誰來設計系統？如果出現問題，誰將負責？一旦決定建立這樣一個系統，仍然會有很多繁重的工作要做。所有這些都表明，無論區塊鏈能帶來多少利益，它們都不會在一夜之間到來。

One problem, says Gary Barnett, an analyst at GlobalData, a consultancy, is mutual incomprehension between insiders and outsiders. 「There』s a 『two tribes』 vibe about a lot of this,」 he says. Because blockchains and cryptocurrencies are notoriously complicated, non-experts from other industries can end up confused by techno-speak, whereas advocates of the technologies are so excited by the potential that they give insufficient attention to important details of the industries they are aiming to revolutionise.

諮詢機構GlobalData的分析師加里·巴內特表示，其中一個問題是內行人和外行人之間的隔膜。 「這經常出現雞與鴨講的情況，」他說。由於區塊鏈和加密貨幣非常複雜，其他行業的非專家人員最終可能會被技術語言弄糊塗，而區塊鏈技術的擁護者對其潛力過於興奮，未能充分關注他們要顛覆的行業的一些重要細節。

To understand the pros and cons of cryptocurrencies and blockchains, the best way is to start with bitcoin itself.

要了解加密貨幣和區塊鏈的利弊，最好的方法是從比特幣本身開始。

編譯：王丹丹

編輯：翻吧君

來源：經濟學人（2018.08.30）

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