雙語閱讀｜市場上「千禧年論」思想橫行

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A SKIT in the 1979 film, 「The Secret Policeman』s Ball」, features Peter Cook, a revered British comedian, as the leader of a cult whose members have gathered on a mountain to watch the end of the world. His followers are full of questions. How will the Earth perish? Will there be a mighty wind? What will happen to homes? 「Well, naturally they will be swept away and consuméd by the fire that dances on the Jeroboam,」 he replies. 「Serve them bloody well right!」

1979年電影《秘密警察的舞會》有一幕滑稽片段，著名英國喜劇演員彼得·庫克飾演邪教頭目，邪教信徒們聚集在一座山上觀看世界末日。信徒們疑問重重：地球將如何毀滅?會起大風嗎?家裡會有什麼變化?「他們肯定會被耶羅波安所跳動的火花吞噬。」他回答說，「活該!」

The skit sends up the millenarian sects of medieval Europe whose adherents believed they were living in the 「end times」 or 「last days」. It could as fittingly be aimed at many investors today. A strain of millenarian thinking has been common since the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers ten years ago this month. Its devotees, too, rail against a discredited priesthood and its vices—in this case, central bankers and quantitative easing (QE). They also maintain that a reckoning is due.

這部滑稽短劇讓人想到歐洲中世紀的千禧年教派，其信徒認為他們生活在「最後一天」或者是「末日」。如今，這種想法也出現在很多投資者身上。在十年前的這個月雷曼兄弟破產以來，這種千禧年的想法一直普遍存在。信徒們也譴責神職人員及不可信，即中央銀行官員和量化寬鬆政策。他們還認為應該對銀行進行清算。

Perhaps it is. As the crisis that followed the collapse of Lehman brought home, it is a mistake to be complacent about what may happen next. Extreme economic and financial events are far more likely than investors had believed. But the real lesson of Lehman is not so much that very bad things can occur. It is that anything might. Investors should of course be mindful of the risk of further crises. But they should also keep in mind the possibility that things might turn out just fine.

也許確實該如此。雷曼破產後，金融危機捲土重來，對未來過度樂觀是錯誤的觀點。經濟和金融極端現象發生的可能性比投資者預期的大。可是，雷曼事件給人的教訓並僅僅是糟糕的事會爆發，是任何事都有可能發生。投資者當然會對發生更多經濟危機風險有警覺。可是，他們也應警惕危機好轉的可能性。

Admittedly, this is hard. It is far easier to think of ways that things might soon go wrong. America』s stockmarket is pricey. Its economy has enjoyed a long expansion. Perhaps the Federal Reserve will tip it into recession. The trouble in emerging markets may worsen. The euro zone is accident-prone. It still lacks a shared mechanism for propping up the economy by fiscal means. Meanwhile, China』s economy has slowed. Its debt mountain looms large. President Donald Trump』s numerous trade wars present another threat.

誠然，這很難做到。想辦法比控制事情態勢變差要容易一些。美國股市價格昂貴，它的經濟長期走高，也許美聯儲會使其陷入衰退危機。新興市場的困境可能會惡化。歐元區很容易發生意外，仍然缺乏通過財政手段支撐經濟的共同機制。與此同時，中國經濟放緩，債務高企。美國總統唐納德?特朗普的屢次發起的貿易戰是另一個威脅。

Moreover, the origins of a crisis can often be found in the response to the previous one. The Fed』s interest-rate cuts following the East Asian and Russian crises helped blow up the dotcom bubble. When that burst, the Fed slashed interest rates and fuelled a housing boom and bust that did for Lehman Brothers. There is good reason to worry that the end of QE in Europe, and its reversal in America, will unsettle financial markets.

此外，危機的根源往往來自對前一場危機的反應。在東亞和俄羅斯危機之後，美聯儲的降息幫助吹起了互聯網泡沫。當危機爆發時，美聯儲大幅降息，並推動了房地產市場的繁榮和蕭條，對雷曼兄弟造成了影響。有充分的理由擔心歐洲量化寬鬆政策的結束，以及美國量化寬鬆政策的逆轉，將會擾亂金融市場。

Deliver us from salvation

脫離苦海

The possibility that markets might be surprised by good news may seem absurd. It is natural to respond to trauma with caution. But this caution can be so extreme that it impairs people』s judgment. In 「The Pursuit of The Millennium」, first published in 1957, Norman Cohn showed that outbreaks of millenarianism often followed a big disruption of some kind—a plague, a famine or even a sharp increase in prices. Prophets of doom tend to spring up after disasters. When you have just lived through one trauma, another seems more plausible.

市場會出現令人驚喜的好消息，這種可能性甚小。自然要痛定思痛。可是，太過謹小慎微，也會影響人們的判斷。在1957年首次出版的《千禧年的追求》一書中，諾曼?科恩指出，千禧年爆發往往伴隨某種大破壞——瘟疫、饑荒，甚至是物價的急劇上漲。災難過後，末日預言家往往會湧現出來。當你剛剛經歷了一次創傷後，下一次可能就見慣不怪了。

But disaster can breed so much caution that a crisis becomes less likely, says Eric Lonergan of M&G;, a fund-management group. He cites the example of the East Asian crisis in 1997-98. The countries it affected went on to make sure they would not be at risk of another balance-of-payments crisis. Likewise, after a crisis as far-reaching as the most recent one, levels of watchfulness among rich-world policymakers militate against the risks of a global recession. 「Your prior [assumption] should be for a very long expansion,」 says Mr Lonergan.

但是，M&G;基金管理公司的Eric Lonergan說，災難逼迫人不得不謹慎，危機好像再也發生不了。他以1997-98年東亞危機為例。受影響的國家繼續前進，力圖避免另一場國際收支危機。同樣的，在經歷了最近一次影響深遠的危機之後，發達國家的政策制定者保持警惕，對全球衰退的風險產生了不利影響。洛內甘說道:「前任 (假設有)應有一定做了長期經濟增長的打算。」

So how might it all go right? It is encouraging that a number of Fed governors seem anxious about the risk of tightening monetary policy too much. Emerging markets may be out of favour, but only a handful are plagued by the old evils of inflation and over-reliance on foreign financing. The chance of progress on fiscal risk-sharing in the euro zone is higher than is generally appreciated. Daniele Antonucci of Morgan Stanley notes the promising noises coming out of Germany. The threat of a trade war has reduced the likelihood of global recession, reckons Mr Lonergan. It has spurred the Chinese authorities to stimulate the economy sooner than they would have otherwise.

那麼，這一切會如何順利進行呢?令人鼓舞無人心的是，許多美聯儲理事似乎對過度收緊貨幣政策的風險感到焦慮。新興市場可能不受歡迎，但只有少數國家存在通貨膨脹和過度依賴外國融資的困擾。歐元區在財政風險分擔方面取得進展的可能性比普遍預期的要高。摩根士丹利的丹尼爾?安東努奇指出，德國傳來了的消息鼓舞人心。洛內甘認為，貿易戰的威脅降低了全球經濟衰退的可能性。這刺激了中國當局快速地刺激經濟，否則別無他法。

Optimists can seem naive. Looking on the bright side does not have the same intellectual cachet as forecasting calamity. Prophets of doom know they will eventually be proved right. It is the nature of business cycles that recessions happen. Good news is just bad news postponed. When the doomsayer played by Peter Cook is forced to recognise that the Earth has not been consumed by flames, he is phlegmatic. 「Never mind, lads,」 he tells his followers. 「Same time tomorrow?」

樂觀主義者可能看起來很天真。樂觀地看待問題，並不像預測災難那麼睿智。末日預言家知道他們最終會證明是正確的。經濟衰退的發生是商業周期的本質。好消息只是壞消息遲來了而已。當由彼得?庫克扮演的末日預言家不得不承認，地球並沒有被火焰吞噬時，他異常冷靜。他告訴他的追隨者，「沒關係，夥計們，」 「在明天同一時間再會來嗎?」

編譯：王丹

編輯：翻吧君

來源：經濟學人（2018.09.13）

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