5個來源於軍事戰爭的思維啟發

09-17

5個來源於軍事戰爭的思維啟發

來自專欄 Farnamstreet精選

1. Seeing the Front

1、親臨前線

One of the most valuable military tactics is the habit of 「personally seeing the front」 before making decisions – not always relying on advisors, maps, and reports, all of which can be either faulty or biased. The Map/Territory model illustrates the problem with not seeing the front. Leaders of any organization can generally benefit from seeing the front, as not only does it provide firsthand information, but it also tends to improve the quality of secondhand information.

最有價值的軍事戰術之一是養成「親臨前線」的習慣，別總是依賴顧問，地圖和報告，因為這些東西有可能是錯的，也有本身就帶有偏見的。領域依賴模型說明了「忽視親臨前線」存在的問題。任何組織的領導者都可以從「親臨前線」中受益，這樣做不但可以獲得一手信息，同時也能夠提高二手信息的質量。

2. Asymmetric Warfare

2、非對稱作戰

The asymmetry model leads to an application in warfare whereby one side seemingly 「plays by different rules」 than the other side due to circumstance. Generally, this model is applied by an insurgency with limited resources. Unable to out-muscle their opponents, asymmetric fighters use other tactics, as with terrorism creating fear that』s disproportionate to their actual destructive ability.

非對稱模型在戰爭中的應用：在戰爭中，由於環境的原因，作戰的其中一方以區別另一方的方式展開作戰。一般來說，這種作戰方式通常為資源有限的一方所採用（叛軍或者反政府軍）。採取非對稱作戰方式的戰士，無法有效打擊另一方，所以採取其他戰術，比如恐怖主義者製造的其實際破壞力不成正比的恐懼。

3. Two-Front War

3、兩線作戰

The Second World War was a good example of a two-front war. Once Russia and Germany became enemies, Germany was forced to split its troops and send them to separate fronts, weakening their impact on either front. In practical life, opening a two-front war can often be a useful tactic, as can solving a two-front war or avoiding one, as in the example of an organization tamping down internal discord to focus on its competitors.

二戰就是關於兩線作戰的極好的例子。當蘇聯向德國宣戰之日起，德國便被迫將軍隊拆分，將其送往不同的戰線，從而削弱了德國在東西兩個戰線的影響。在實際的生活中，「兩線作戰」通常都是很有效的策略，就像解決兩線作戰或者避免一場戰爭一樣，為了專註觀察競爭對手必須著手組織內部的不和。

4. Counterinsurgency

4、鎮壓叛亂

Though asymmetric insurgent warfare can be extremely effective, over time competitors have also developed counterinsurgency strategies. Recently and famously, General David Petraeus of the United States led the development of counterinsurgency plans that involved no additional force but substantial additional gains. Tit-for-tat warfare or competition will often lead to a feedback loop that demands insurgency and counterinsurgency.

儘管非對稱作戰方式很有效，但是隨著時間的發展，對手也會發展出反制手段。最近也是最著名的是，美國的彼得·雷烏斯將軍領導制定了反對叛亂（伊拉克戰場）的計劃，在沒有增加軍隊的情況下取得了持續不對的額外勝利。以牙還牙式的戰爭或競爭需要一個類似叛亂與反叛亂雙方存在的反饋迴路。

5. Mutually Assured Destruction

5、互相確保摧毀

Somewhat paradoxically, the stronger two opponents become, the less likely they may be to destroy one another. This process of mutually assured destruction occurs not just in warfare, as with the development of global nuclear warheads, but also in business, as with the avoidance of destructive price wars between competitors. However, in a fat-tailed world, it is also possible that mutually assured destruction scenarios simply make destruction more severe in the event of a mistake .

可能有點矛盾，但是當對抗的雙方同時變的更強大的時候，一方摧毀另一方的可能性就越小。這種互相確保摧毀的情形不僅常出現在戰爭中，全球的核戰爭的發展也是一樣。在商業中也一樣，正如在避免競爭對手破壞性的價格戰一樣（比如可口可樂和百事可樂的競爭）。然而，在厚尾現象存在的現實世界中，相互確保摧毀會使錯誤事件帶來的破壞更加嚴重（黑天鵝事件或者極端事件將出現）。