Quora機翻系列A-1: 一戰為何爆發？

08-26

來自專欄 Quora機翻系列2 人贊了文章

「二德子（德意志第二帝國）啊，你管管你家威廉二世，別東征俄羅斯西討法國了，也別老跟隔壁奧匈糾纏不清，這樣下去歐洲藥丸的。」

Why did World War One happen? No matter how much I read on the subject, I cant figure it out. It makes absolutely no sense to me.

為何一戰會爆發呢？不論我在這方面看了多少資料，總是沒有辦法搞清楚這個問題。這對我來說簡直是沒有任何道理。（「我」指Quora上的提問者，從下文開始「我」指回答者）

I』m going to be a bit mean here and pull a Treaty of Versailles guilt clause and point the finger of blame at the German Empire. But only after 1890, prior to that they were the glue that held Europe and the world together.
However, there are multiple and complex reasons to WW1 sparking, books and careers have been dedicated to answering this question, not to mention this cool cartoon:

我會在這裡變得刻薄一些，把凡爾賽和約（根據上下文，應該是1871年普法戰爭結束的那次）認為是一戰爆發的罪魁禍首之一，並且對德意志帝國批判一番。但那時1890年之後的事情了， 1890年之前，是它們把世界和歐洲黏在一起。

然而，有很多的原因導致了一戰的爆發。很多書籍都對此有描述，更不要說多少學者畢生研究這項事業。還有一幅關於這件事的漫畫：

圖中的文字，從最左邊的人（國家）到最右邊的人（國家）：
你敢動我我就****
你敢動一下我就****
你揍了那個小孩（小國）你就等著吧
你敢打我朋友我就****
如果你打他....
嘿，等下，如果你們這幫人（國家）.....

Prior to 1890 the Chancellor of Germany was Otto von Bismarck, an utterly brilliant politician who kept Europe perfectly balanced. Germany was friends with Russia, France was isolated from all other powers and unable to do anything, Britain was completely unconcerned with the continent and to the south they had Italy and the Austro-Hungarian Empire on side and keeping the Balkans stable.

在1890年之前，德國總理奧托·馮·俾斯麥（Otto von Bismarck）是一位極其出色的政治家，他讓歐洲保持完美平衡。德國是與俄羅斯的朋友，法國與其他所有國家都是孤立的，無法做任何事情，英國完全不關心大陸和南方，他們擁有義大利和奧匈帝國，並保持巴爾幹地區的穩定。

奧托·馮·俾斯麥，自1871年德意志帝國成立至1890年下台擔任德意志帝國總理

After 1890 he was removed and under Kaiser Wilhelm II the German Empire began to desire more power, a place on the world stage, colonies throughout the world, an imposing navy, in short they wanted 『a place in the Sun』. The aggressive posturing of the German Empire began to upset the status quo that Bismarck had planned.

1890年之後，他被開除，在威廉皇帝二世時期，德意志帝國開始渴望更多的權力，世界舞台上的一個地方，世界各地的殖民地，強大壯觀的海軍，簡而言之他們想要「在太陽下的一個地方（殖民地）」。德意志帝國的激進姿態開始打破了俾斯麥計劃的現狀。

德皇威廉二世沉浸在德國即將獲得的光芒中

德皇微量

In 1890 Kaiser Wilhelm II did not renew the Reinsurance Treaty with the Russian Empire, a treaty that would keep the other neutral if they were attacked. Russia after this went on to befriend France, immediately ruining the efforts that Bismarck had made to keep France weak and isolated (please rembemer that France still hated Germany for the annexation of Alsace-Lorraine region to Germany in 1871).
Germany then decided to antagonise the British and the French on the world stage, resulting to bullying tactics to undermine colonial efforts. The United Kingdom fell victim to the Germans ambisions first, where Kaiser Wilhelm II sent a telegram to Paul Kruger, President of the Transvaal Republic that had just resisted an attempted raid by pro-British forces in South Africa, which was perceived as an attempt to expand British colonial holdings.

1890年，威廉二世沒有與俄羅斯帝國續簽「再保險條約」，這條條約如果受到攻擊，將使另一方保持中立。此後俄羅斯與法國建立了聯繫，立即破壞了俾斯麥為保持法國弱勢和孤立所做的努力（請記住，法國仍然憎恨德國於1871年將阿爾薩斯 - 洛林地區吞併到德國）。

德國隨後決定在世界舞台上對抗英國和法國，導致欺凌手段破壞殖民地的努力。英國首先成為德國人行動的受害者，威廉皇帝二世致電德蘭士瓦共和國總統保羅克魯格，該公司剛剛抵制了南非親英部隊的突襲行動，這被視為企圖擴大英國殖民地的財產。

I express to you my sincere congratulations that you and your people, without appealing to the help of friendly powers, have succeeded, by your own energetic action against the armed bands which invaded your country as disturbers of the peace, in restoring peace and in maintaining the independence of the country against attack from without』.
我向你表示衷心的祝賀，你和你的人民，在沒有求助於友好勢力的情況下，通過你自己的積極行動，成功地打擊了侵略你們國家作為和平擾亂者的武裝團伙，恢復和平和維持國家的獨立性不受攻擊。

『Friendly powers』 is evidently Germany, and the suggestion made by Kaiser Wilhelm II is that he was prepared to directly intervene with Britain, which was a pretty daft thing to do. Within the U.K. the public were outraged by this, and within Germany the public were outraged that they were seen as having so little power. These issues all stem back to the German change in policy, going from being the peacemakers within Europe to a nation stepping on everyone』s toes.

「友好勢力」顯然是德國，威廉二世的建議是他準備直接干預英國，這是一件非常愚蠢的事情。在英國境內，公眾對此感到憤怒，在德國境內，公眾對他們被視為擁有如此少的權力感到憤怒。這些問題都源於德國政策的變化，從歐洲的和平締造者變成了一個踩到人人憎恨的國家。

Similar behaviour was exhibited by a Germany and again specifically by Kaiser Wilhelm II in the First and Morocco Crisis. Rebellion in Morocco in 1905 gave the French an excuse to intervene in Morocco to expand their colonies in Africa, however Kaiser Wilhelm II openly gave support to the Sultan of Morocco, thus defying France to simply antagonise them and their allies while increasing German prestige. The political bullying of Germany failed, and again failed in the Second Moroccan Crisis of 1911 when they demanded part of Morocco after another rebellion broke out, France however established a full protectorate over Morocco and the British, French and Russians were driven closer together through anger over the recklessness of Germany. The security of Germany, and the rest of Europe, and the position of Germany the peacemaker it had been under Bismarck was ruined by a blundering, and aggravating foreign policy which made the Great War an inevitability.

德國和威廉二世在第一次和摩洛哥危機中再次表現出類似的行為。 1905年摩洛哥的叛亂使法國有借口干預摩洛哥擴大其在非洲的殖民地，但威廉二世公開支持摩洛哥蘇丹，從而無視法國在增加德國聲望的同時簡單地對抗他們及其盟友。德國的政治欺凌行為失敗了，並且在1911年第二次摩洛哥危機中再次失敗，當時他們要求摩洛哥部分地區再次爆發叛亂，但是法國建立了對摩洛哥的全面保護，英國，法國和俄羅斯通過憤怒更加緊密地聯繫在一起因為德國的魯莽。德國和歐洲其他國家的安全，以及它在俾斯麥之下的和平製造者德國的地位，被一種浮躁和加劇的外交政策所破壞，這使得大戰成為必然。

The German Empire was stepping on everyone』s toes, getting in everyone』s business and simply angering the world. Prior to 1890 they had no interest in colonialism, while coming late to the game Bismsrck had recognised it as something that would only spell ruin for Germany, unfortunately his hotheaded successors were much less caring.

德意志帝國惹怒了每一個人，干涉所有人的實物，激怒了整個世界。在1890年之前，他們對殖民主義毫無興趣，而在遊戲中遲到的時候，俾斯麥（原文中可能是拼寫錯誤）已經認識到它只會給德國帶來毀滅，不幸的是，他性急的繼承者不那麼關心。

Germany also began to threaten its neighbours militarily. The construction of a large fleet that began in 1897 under Admiral Alfred von Tirpitz who hoped to pose a challenge to British naval supremacy, a supremacy simply born from the need to safeguard the world』s largest empire, a justification which Germany lacked. In 1902 the British grew concerned with the open provocation by Germany, with Lord Selborne, the First Lord of the Admiralty, stating that German fleet building was a direct threat to British security. A military threat was also posed to France and Russia who Germany had antagonised and failed to keep friendly. Because of the risk of a two front war that Germany had forced upon itself the military developed the Schlieffen Plan, an offensive strategy in which Germany would attack France through the Benelux region. For this potential attack the military was increased in size to match the land forces of France and 300,000 men short of matching Russia. While Germany had once found its position of power through diplomacy, it was now reliant upon attempting to build up its military strength, which ultimately brought closer the inevitable war that would spark.

德國也開始在軍事上威脅其鄰國。建於1897年的海軍上將阿爾弗雷德·馮·提爾皮茨（Alfred von Tirpitz）領導下建造了一支大型艦隊，希望對英國海軍的至高無上的地位構成挑戰，這種優勢僅僅源於保護世界上最大帝國的必要性，這是德國所缺乏的理由。 1902年，英國人開始關注德國的公開挑釁行為，海軍上將率領塞爾伯恩勛爵表示德國艦隊建設是對英國安全的直接威脅。對法國和俄羅斯也提出了軍事威脅，德國曾反對並未能保持友好。由於德國強迫自己進行兩場前線戰爭的風險，軍方制定了施利芬計劃，這是德國將通過比荷盧地區攻擊法國的進攻戰略。對於這次潛在的攻擊，軍隊的規模增加，以匹配法國的陸軍並比俄羅斯的陸軍少30萬人。雖然德國曾經通過外交找到了自己的權力地位，但它現在依賴於試圖建立自己的軍事力量，這最終使得不可避免的戰爭更加接近。

In response to the German』s expansion of their navy the British were forced into an arms race. Britain decisively won this race when they unveiling the world』s first Dreadnought, a hugely powerful ship that rendered the German navy and the plans of Admiral Alfred von Tirpitz useless, in 1906

為了應對德國海軍的擴張，英國人被迫參加軍備競賽。 1906年，英國揭開了世界上第一艘無畏艦，一艘巨大的船隻，使得德國海軍和阿爾弗雷德·馮·蒂爾皮茨海軍上將的計劃毫無用處，英國決定性地贏得了這場比賽。

Not only did Germany antagonise much of Europe, it also drove its few allies to become more aggressive, especially the Austro-Hungarian Empire. While Austro-Hungary wanted to preserve that status que in Eastern Europe and the Balkans for its own security the Germans were drawn in to close ties with Germany for who it had to undertake a more aggressive stance. Indeed after the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria by Serbian nationalists it was Kaiser Wilhelm II who promised the Austrians they 『might in this case, as in all others, rely upon Germany』s full support』, a promise dubbed the 『blank cheque』 which was in fact made solely by the Kaiser without the knowledge of the German Chancellor. Austria was then pressured to take action against Serbia by a Germany bent on war. Even when Serbia accepted but one the demands put to them by Austro-Hungary (the one being Austria-Hungary』s participation in any internal inquiry, which Serbia was willing to compromise on) there was no desire for peace from Germany. The action that would then be taken against Serbia would be the final antagonising act that Germany could commit, and the Great War began a month later.

德國不僅對抗歐洲的大部分地區，而且還使少數盟友變得更具侵略性，特別是奧匈帝國。雖然奧匈帝國希望保留東歐和巴爾幹地區的自身安全地位，但德國人卻被迫與德國建立密切聯繫，因為德國必須採取更積極的立場。事實上，在塞爾維亞民族主義者暗殺奧地利大公弗朗茨·費迪南德之後，威爾海姆二世曾向奧地利人承諾，在這種情況下他們可能會像其他所有人一樣依賴德國的全力支持，這一承諾被稱為「空白支票」。實際上是在沒有德國總理知情的情況下由凱撒完全製造的。隨後，奧地利向一名反對戰爭的德國採取行動對塞爾維亞採取行動。即使塞爾維亞接受了奧匈帝國提出的要求（其中一個是奧地利 - 匈牙利參與任何內部調查，塞爾維亞願意妥協），德國也不希望和平。對塞爾維亞採取的行動將是德國可能犯下的最後對抗行為，一個月後開始了第一次世界大戰。

The assassination of Franz Ferdinand by a group of Serb nationalists was condemned by Serbia who promised cooperation with Austro-Hungary. War was still declared.

一群塞族民族主義者暗殺弗蘭茲·費迪南德受到塞爾維亞的譴責，塞爾維亞承諾與奧匈帝國合作。即便如此，戰爭仍然爆發了。

Europe since 1890 was a continent destined for an inevitable and German manufactured war.

1890年後的歐洲註定要有一場不可避免的且是德國製造的戰爭。

With the restrained hand and policies of Otto von Bismarck over and a new German desire to stand as a world power the nation frequently bullied and antagonised other nations on the world stage. The activity of the German government and particularly that of Kaiser Wilhelm II lead to unnecessary and easily avoidable clashes with France, Russia and Britain, and the pressurising of allies to take aggressive stances was inherently going to lead to war.
If the Great War had not have happened on 28th July 1914 it would have inevitably occurred at a later date.

隨著奧托·馮·俾斯麥的剋制和政策以及德國希望成為世界大國的新願望，德國經常在世界舞台上欺負和對抗其他國家。德國政府的活動，特別是威廉二世的活動導致了與法國，俄羅斯和英國的不必要和容易避免的衝突，並且盟友採取激進立場的壓力本來就會引發戰爭。

如果1914年7月28日沒有發生過一場偉大的戰爭，它將不可避免地在以後發生。

End of Translaton

翻譯結束

原作者：

Samuel Raynes, studied Classical Civilisation & Philosophy

原貼地址：

https://www.quora.com/Why-did-World-War-One-happen-No-matter-how-much-I-read-on-the-subject-I-cant-figure-it-out-It-makes-absolutely-no-sense-to-me?

www.quora.com

（需要翻牆）