7月31日 日本央行利率決議投行前瞻

ANZ:

Recent media speculation about a change in policy - owing to concerns over the sustainability of the BoJs current policy framework - has turned next weeks monetary policy meeting into a market event. We dont expect any change, given that the Bank is set to downgrade its inflation view. Moreover, any policy tweak could be misinterpreted as a step toward normalisation. A signal the BoJ would be reluctant to send now, with inflation far from target. The issue of policy sustainability remains, but the Bank has time to take a considered approach on how best to manage any policy adjustments to address these concerns.

澳新銀行：日本央行料將按兵不動

日本央行或將對通脹的觀點表達出不滿，這會是日本央行按兵不動的最大原因。除此以外，本次日本央行在政策上的任何調整都將會被市場解讀為邁向常態化的步伐。其中有一個信號可能會是日本央行最不情願發出的——「通脹距離目標還比較遠」。雖然日本央行政策可持續性仍然存在問題，但日本央行有足夠的時間去研究一切可以解決憂慮的政策調整方式。

An inert Bank of Japan policy decision could prompt the yield curve to flatten with any unwinding of the yens strength, says Rabobanks senior strategist for Asia, Michael Every. "I would bank on the Bank of Japan not to do anything other than an elegant ikebana-like rearranging of monetary deckchairs on what is still a policy Titanic." To buttress his claim, Every cites consumer price inflation which is still at 0.7% on-year and at zero when food and energy prices are stripped out, instead of the BOJs 2% target. He also notes June industrial production collapsed 2.1% on-month and 1.2% on-year.

荷蘭合作銀行高級策略師Michael Every：日本央行或將缺乏調整政策的刺激因素

日本央行在政策決定上會呈現出「惰性」，將會進一步削去近期日元走強的勢頭，促使收益率曲線趨平。本人會押注日本央行按兵不動。從近期的數據上看，消費者物價通脹年率為仍0.7%，剔除食品和能源價格後為0%，遠低於日本央行的2%的通脹目標；6月工業產出年率和月率均出現不同情況的下滑，而這些都將支持本人的觀點。

Amid many central bank decisions this week, the Bank of Japan "may carry the most-significant influence," says Hussein Sayed, chief market strategist for online brokerage FXTM. Investors started pricing in changes to interest rates as yields rose to 18-month highs in recent days on 10-year JGBs. But he thinks theres a "higher chance that the BoJ will not make any significant changes" and instead try to calm markets by bringing the 10-year yield back to 0%. "If this is true, expect USD-JPY to strengthen again toward 113." The greenback remains around Y111.

富拓市場策略師Hussein：若日本央行按兵不動 美元兌日元USD/JPY將升至113水平

在本次的超級央行周之中，日本央行所帶來的影響將會是最廣泛而深遠的。近期日本10年期政府債券收益率漲至18個月以來高位，使得投資者開始為日本央行調整政策進行定價。但本次日本央行將不會進行顯著的政策調整，而是使10年期國債收益率回到0%，嘗試以此來安撫市場。如果與預期相符，美元兌日元USD/JPY將會再度走強，升向113.00的水平。

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