油價的變化——電池代替石油？

08-02

油價的變化——電池代替石油？

來自專欄國外新聞

Delta Air Lines (DAL) cut its full year earnings outlook Thursday, a day after American Airlines (AAL) warned that its costs and sales would be lower than expected last quarter. The culprit: Deltas fuel cost $654 million more in the second quarter than a year ago, and American said the increase in its fuel costs would be about $50 million more than it had expected.

Higher oil prices lifted the average price of Deltas jet fuel by 39% during the spring. Prices are expected to continue to climb another 6% this quarter.

To avoid a massive dent in earnings, airlines are all doing what they can to hold the line on spending on non-fuel items, including capital spending. Lower profits would also mean smaller profit sharing bonuses for employees

Strong demand for air travel is lifting fares, which has helped offset some fuel costs. A key measure of Deltas fares was up 4.6% in the just completed quarter. Delta said it expects a similar increase in third quarter.

Deltas second-quarter earnings fell, but profit wasnt as bad as Wall Street expected in part because of higher fares.

Higher fuel prices can make fares more expensive because some airlines operate fewer flights when it costs more to fly them. Delta said it would cut some less profitable flights, even as it increases its overall capacity.

"We will continue to adjust capacity in markets we cannot recapture higher fuel costs," said Delta President Glen Hauenstein.

But not all airlines fares are increasing as much as Deltas. American predicted fares rose around 1% last quarter.

The high fuel prices are worrying investors. Delta shares were slightly higher in pre-market trading Thursday on its earnings report, but the stock still down more than 10% for the year. Shares of other airline stocks were also slightly higher on Deltas fare outlook.

一是石油無機成因學說的研究力度逐年加大，對有機成因構成的威脅也逐年增大。一旦石油無機成因被證實，將改變油氣勘探開發格局，甚至人工合成都將變為現實，石油資源儲量很可能大幅上升，對石油價格造成衝擊。
二是以美國為主導的頁岩油開發技術革命並未停止，新一輪的頁岩油技術革命正蓄勢待發，到那時將會進一步拉低油價。
三是2017年6月美國二疊紀盆地淺層稠油開採技術獲得突破，成功把每口油井的盈虧平衡油價降至20美元/桶以下，該技術的推廣應用也將對油價造成衝擊。

四是隨著人類社會的發展，越加意識到綠色清潔能源的重要性。英國、法國、中國等國紛紛提出燃油汽車禁售時間表，石油行業面臨著需求端逐年下降新的困境。
面對這些不利的石油前景，國內油田企業經營壓力將隨之大增，需進一步加大改革與創新力度。
國內油田企業面臨新的發展困境（金山銀山不如綠水青山）
一是優質石油資源逐年減少，可采儲量采出程度不斷上升，提高採收率技術難度大，企業如何提質增效發展突圍，面臨著供給端量質下跌新的困境。
二是石油行業屬於傳統企業，其組織架構複雜、人員隊伍龐大，在企業轉型升級過程中存在較大壓力，如何負重前行，面臨著組織機構瘦身減肥新的困境。

石油能源進入工業應用已有一百餘年，面對石油供需關係的改變以及新能源的衝擊，需要深度挖掘石油更深更高更廣的資源應用價值，拓寬應用領域，石油將在深度應用方面扮演新的歷史角色。
傳統石油企業進入轉型升級改革深水期，需要重新優化調配現有資源，充分發揮國企的人才優勢，再一次揚帆起航。石油人需抓住這轉型升級的大好機遇期，發揮個人和集體的智慧和力量，實現人生跨越。
電池未來會引發一場革命
新能源是電子消費品廠商探索的關鍵方向之一，縮減電池尺寸、提升續航能力對硬體有限的內部空間至關重要。

革命式電池又稱超級電池，是麻省理工學院的科學家成功研製出一種可以在短短十秒鐘內，為手機完成充電程序，把充電時間大幅減省數小時。如果大量生產的話將大大的提高工作效率和生活節奏。與傳統電池相比，革命性電池無疑是會給人們的生活帶來很大的便捷。
電動汽車的發展，也是正在發展。中國準備實行不限速的高速充電公路。