【紐約客】大選預告？希拉里和特朗普紐約獲勝 | 取經號

4月19日紐約初選，特朗普和希拉里沒有多大懸念的分別戰勝各自對手，拿下紐約州。紐約人總愛說：「如果你能在這裡成功，就能在任何地方成功。」希拉里和特朗普在紐約大勝，獲得黨內提名的幾率從而大增，不過並非定數。接下來的賓夕法尼亞、加利福尼亞等大州選舉也舉足輕重。

正文

APRIL 20, 2016

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump』s New YorkWins: A Preview of the General Election?

大選預告？希拉里和特朗普紐約獲勝

BYJOHN CASSIDY

The 2016 general-election campaign may wellhave started in midtown Manhattan on Tuesdaynight.CREDITPHOTOGRAPH BY SPENCERPLATT/GETTY

也許，2016年美國大選早在周二晚曼哈頓的市中心就開始了。

Primary season is far from over. Neither Donald Trump nor Hillary Clinton is fullyguaranteed to win the parties』 respective nominating contests. And both major parties willbe doing a lot of politicking, voting, and arm-twisting between now and the conventions inJuly. But, when all is said and done, it may well turn out that the 2016 general-electioncampaign began in midtown Manhattan on Tuesday night.

初選還遠未結束。唐納德·特朗普和希拉里·柯林頓都還不敢勝券在握地表示自己能贏得各自黨內的總統候選人提名。從現在起到7月份兩黨的全國代表大會，民主、共和兩黨內部都還會進行眾多拉攏、投票和角力活動。但說到底，2016年大選也許早在周二晚的曼哈頓市中心就開始了。

The polls closed at 9 P.M., and before long Donald Trump was addressing the press at TrumpTower. Either he had just popped a sedative or he was trying to appear Presidential. He wascalm and talked slowly, by his standards—and, rather than rambling on interminably, whichis his regular speaking style, he spoke for fewer than ten minutes. He hailed theRepublican voters who had delivered him a big victory in New York, thanked his staff (someof whom had only recently been hired), and claimed that Ted Cruz, who came in a distantthird, was 「just about mathematically eliminated」 from the race. For one night, anyway,it was a quieter, gentler Trump. Even when he complained about efforts by other Republicansto deny him his elected delegates and force a brokered convention, he avoided shouting.

當日的投票在晚間9時結束，隨後特朗普在以其本人名字命名的特朗普大樓召開記者招待會。會上，他若不是事先服用了鎮靜劑，就是在努力做出總統的樣子。和往常相比他更鎮定，說話也不似他以往喋喋不休的風格，反而不急不緩，發言時間也沒有超過10分鐘。他向幫助他在紐約取得壓倒性勝利的共和黨選民致敬，同時感謝了他的競選團隊（有一些人剛被僱用沒多久），宣稱和一、二名票數相去甚遠的泰德·科魯茲「無疑已經被淘汰」。總之，那晚的特朗普很安靜，也很溫和。就連在抱怨其他共和黨人圍攻自己、力主召開協商會議（譯者註：brokered convention, 當黨內候選人比較多，大家的支持率又比較平均導致票數分散，沒有一人得票超過半數時，美國政黨內部比較常規的做法。所謂黨內協商，讓願意犧牲的候選人做出退讓，把自己的支持者讓給更有勝算的候選人，以便其票數超過一半拿到競選資格。因此，協商會議又被稱作「討價還價會議」。）來擠掉自己時，他也沒有大喊大叫。

About half an hour after Trump wrapped up, a beaming Hillary Clinton addressed a rapturous crowd at the Sheraton New York Times Square. 「In this campaign, we』ve won in every region of the country, from the North to the South to the East to the West,」 she said. 「But this one』s personal.」 She reached out to Sanders supporters, saying, 「I believe there is much more that unites us than divides us,」 and looked ahead to the convention. 「The race for the Democratic nomination is in the home stretch, and victory is in sight,」 she said. With that, she pivoted to the general election, portraying herself as a progressive problem-solver, describing the Republican candidates as extremists, and stealing a quote from her husband, Bill, who was standing behind her. 「There』s nothing wrong with America that can』t be cured by what is right with America,」 she said.

當特朗普發言結束半個小時後，喜氣洋洋的希拉里在謝拉頓風格的紐約時代廣場對狂喜的選民說：「在初選中，不論東西南北，我們都所向披靡。但在紐約的獲勝是私人的。」她對桑德斯的支持者說：「我相信，我們的共同點多過我們的分歧。」她還展望協商會議，「民主黨提名戰已經接近尾聲，勝利在望。」她藉此進一步談到大選，說自己是一個善於解決問題的、進步的人，而共和黨的候選人都是極端分子，她還借用站在她身後的丈夫比爾·柯林頓的話，說道：「美國可以憑藉自己的優勢，解決一切存在的問題。」

Trump and Clinton both had ample reason to celebrate. Both were heavily favored to win inNew York, but, after a string of defeats in other states, they needed decisive victories intheir own backyards. Trump crushed his two opponents, getting slightly more than sixty percent of the vote. John Kasich came in second, with about twenty-five per cent, and Ted Cruzfinished third, with just under fifteen. Clinton』s margin of victory wasn』t quite thatlarge, but it was impressive nonetheless. She got nearly fifty-eight per cent of the vote,and Sanders got forty-two.

特朗普和柯林頓的確有充分的理由去慶祝，他們均在紐約州取得了壓倒性的勝利，繼在他州一系列的敗北後，在自家後院贏得這樣決定性的勝利是十分重要的。特朗普獲得了60%以上的票數，擊敗了他的兩個對手——贏得25%選票的約翰·卡西克（John Kasich）和獲得不到15%選票的泰德·科魯茲。柯林頓和桑德斯的差距沒有那麼大，她獲得了近58%的選票，而後者獲得了42%，但這成績也已經十分不俗。

On this occasion, the opinion polls broadly got it right. (Not the network exit poll, whichinitially showed Clinton defeating Sanders by just four percentage points: that was wayoff.) Going into Tuesday, most polls had indicated that Trump and Clinton were headed forbig wins. In the event, Trump carried every county in the state, except, ironically, hisown, Manhattan, where Kasich edged him out. Clinton trailed Sanders in almost all the ruralcounties upstate, but she won almost all of the state』s major population centers: New YorkCity, Long Island, Westchester and Rockland Counties, Syracuse, and Rochester. (The resultin Buffalo was very close.)

這一次，民調對紐約初選的預測大致正確（但不包括在網路上進行的選後民調，其最開始顯示，希拉里會僅以4%的差距擊敗桑德斯，這和實際情況相去甚遠。）大多數民調對周二情況的預測都顯示，特朗普和希拉里會取得巨大勝利。在初選中，特朗普在紐約州都取得了勝利，諷刺地是，只在他自己的主場曼哈頓以微弱的差距敗給了卡西奇。民主黨方面，桑德斯在幾乎所有紐約北部的鄉村都領先，但希拉里在紐約州人口最為密集的紐約城、長島、韋斯切斯特、羅克蘭郡、錫拉丘茲和羅切斯特市領先。(兩人在水牛城的得票十分接近。)

It wasn』t just Trump and Clinton』s handsome victories that brought a possible general-election showdown between the two into view, although, clearly, that was part of it. Insweeping almost all of the ninety-five delegates available on the Republican side, Trumpextended his lead over Cruz to about three hundred, according to the Times』 count. On theDemocratic side, where two hundred and forty-seven delegates were up for grabs, Clintonmade a net gain of about thirty delegates, and extended her lead among pledged delegates totwo hundred and forty-five. Strictly as a matter of arithmetic, neither front-runner』slead is insurmountable. But, practically speaking, it is now hard to see how either Cruz orSanders could get enough delegates to win. Their hopes rest on turning things around at theconventions.

儘管兩人並非是因為在紐約州不俗的成績才有可能最後進入大選，但很顯然紐約的勝利起到了一定作用。根據《時代周刊》的計算，特朗普已經贏得了共和黨內95%選舉代表的支持，和科魯茲之間的差距在300人。民主黨247個選舉代表中，希拉里在紐約凈入約30票，從而將她宣示代表(pledged delegates)票的領先優勢擴大到245張。單從演算法來看，兩黨的領跑者都還沒有穩贏，但科魯茲和桑德斯獲勝的希望已經很渺茫。他們只能寄希望於協調會議。

Should Clinton and Trump emerge victorious, the election will be a New York affair. And, if you look at the breakdown of the votes on Tuesday, the state』s primary was a microcosm of what we could see in November. Trump, if he gets the G.O.P. nomination, will be seeking to mobilize disgruntled white suburban voters, some of whom are traditional Republicans, while others are what were once called Reagan Democrats. Clinton, on the other hand, will be seeking to recreate the multiracial Obama coalition, which brought the Democrats to victory in 2008 and 2012. In New York, on Tuesday, we saw the makings of both sides taking the field.

如果希拉里和特朗普最終勝出，那大選將會和紐約初選的情況差不多。並且，周二紐約州初選的票數分布也許會是十一月份大選的縮影。如果特朗普獲得共和黨的提名，那他一定會去調動不滿的郊區白人選民，這些選民有一部分是傳統的共和黨人，另外一部分是曾被稱作里根派民主黨人的選民。而希拉里會去重新建立曾幫助民主黨在2008和2012年獲勝的多種族聯盟。在周二的紐約，這兩派的形成已初見苗頭。

Since Trump won virtually everywhere, it』s difficult to pick out trends in particular areas. But his huge margins of victory on Long Island, where he picked up about seventy per cent of the vote, and on Staten Island, where he got eighty-two per cent, confirmed his strength in communities that are predominantly white and middle-class. In these places, which include areas that were once referred to as 「white flight」 destinations, the billionaire』s nativist rhetoric, populist economic message, and criticisms of career politicians resonate strongly with many inhabitants, be they Republicans, independents, or even Democrats. By contrast, Trump』s weakness in Manhattan and in wealthy, mostly white parts of Brooklyn, such as Brooklyn Heights and Cobble Hill, confirmed the difficulty he may encounter in attracting affluent, educated Republicans.

特朗普幾乎在紐約各地都大獲全勝，所以也很難看出他在特定區域的趨勢。但他在長島取得的70%和在斯塔頓島82%的大比分勝出證明了，在主要由中產階級白人構成的社區中，他是佔有優勢的。這些地方包括白色居民從非白人聚居地撤出後重新定居的地方，在這些地方，特朗普這位億萬富翁的本土主義說辭，平民主義的經濟主張和對職業政治家的批評引起了許多居民的共識，這其中既有共和黨人，也有無黨派人士，甚至還有一些民主黨人。相反，特朗普的弱點在曼哈頓和布魯克林中富裕白人聚居的地方，比如布魯克林高地和科布爾山，這證明他未來在吸引受過教育的富裕共和黨人方面可能會碰到困難。

On the Democratic side, the exit poll, which was updated later in the night to more closelyreflect the actual votes, showed that Clinton had defeated Sanders by appealing to, andturning out, core Democratic groups, particularly women, who made up fifty-nine per cent ofthe electorate, and minorities, who comprised forty-one. The two candidates split malevoters and white voters just about evenly. But Clinton carried female voters by sixty-threeper cent to thirty-seven per cent, a huge gap. Seventy-five per cent of black voters wentfor her, as did sixty-four per cent of Hispanics. The former Secretary of State also didvery well among affluent and highly educated Democrats, another important component of theObama coalition. People with a post-graduate degree represented about a quarter of theParty』s primary electorate in New York, and fifty-eight per cent of those people voted forClinton. Three in ten voters came from households earning more than a hundred thousanddollars a year, and sixty per cent of them went for Clinton.

民主黨方面，周二晚些時候根據實際得票情況更新後的選後民調顯示，希拉里擊敗桑德斯主要依靠核心民主黨團體，尤其是佔到全體選民59%的女性選民和佔到41%的少數民族選民。希拉里和桑德斯在男性選民和白人選民的得票上平分秋色，但希拉里贏得了63%的女性選票，而桑德森只有37%，這就拉開了兩人的差距。希拉里還獲得了75%的黑人選票和64%的西班牙裔美國人選票。

The broad nature of her support was also clear from the New York City neighborhoods whereshe performed best. According to the Times, these were the Upper East Side, which is verywhite and very affluent; Rugby-Remsen Village, in Brooklyn, which is a poor blackneighborhood; and Eastchester, in the Bronx, which is a poor, racially mixed area.

希拉里得票最高的幾個紐約社區也清楚地體現出了她的根基。根據《時代周刊》的統計，這些社區包括主要由白人和富人組成的上東區，主要由窮人和黑人組成的布魯克林以及主要由窮人、多種族人口混居的布朗克斯。

The exit poll also illustrated which issues are animating the voters as we get closer tothe general election. Among Republican voters, eighty-eight per cent said that they wereangry or dissatisfied with the federal government, and sixty-four per cent said that theywanted an outsider as President. Democrats, perhaps unsurprisingly, were happier with thepolitical status quo. More than half said that the next Commander-in-Chief should continuePresident Obama』s policies. Strikingly, however, both Republicans and Democrats picked theeconomy and jobs as the biggest issues facing the country. Terrorism and other concernsranked lower.

選後民調還顯示了隨著大選的逼近，選民最關切的問題是什麼。88%的共和黨選民說他們對聯邦政府感到很不滿甚至憤怒，64%稱他們想要一個局外人出任總統。不出所料，民主黨人對政治現狀比較滿意。一半以上的選民表示下一任總統應當延續奧巴馬總統的政策。但讓人吃驚地是，兩黨都認為經濟和就業是國家面臨的最大問題，恐怖主義和其他關切排名則相對靠後。

These preferences could change, of course, or could prove less influential among theelectorates in other states. But for now, at least, it appears that the election will befought on the traditional issues of prosperity and employment. Clinton, as she made clearin her speech, has a laundry list of detailed policy prescriptions, including investmentsin infrastructure, paid family leave, and equal pay for women. Trump, for now, is relyingon exhortations and vague promises. At his victory event, he introduced Carl Icahn, thefamed corporate raider, and Steve Roth, a real-estate investor, and said, 「We are going touse our great business people to negotiate unbelievable trade deals.」 A quick list ofother pledges ensued.

在其他州的選民心中，這種排名可能會有變化或者會變得不是那麼重要，但至少截至目前，這場選舉仍然是圍繞著發展和就業兩個傳統問題的戰爭。希拉里在演講中明確詳細地列出了她的政策清單，包括在基建上投資、帶薪家務假和同工同酬等。特朗普則一直靠著振奮人心的話和空頭支票。在勝利之後的演講中，他向選民介紹了以知名的蓄意收購者卡爾·伊坎和房地產投資商史蒂夫羅思，他說：「我們將利用我們優秀的商界人士來達成不可置信的貿易協定。」隨即他又很快做出了一系列其它承諾。

「We are going to be strong again—really, legitimately, so great again,」 Trump said.「And I just can』t wait.」

特朗普說：「我們會再次強大起來，真正地，合法地，再次變得強盛。我等不及要看到那一天了。」

外媒簡介

《紐約客》（The New Yorker），也譯作《紐約人》，是一份美國知識、文藝類的綜合雜誌，內容覆蓋新聞報道、文藝評論、散文、漫畫、詩歌、小說，以及紐約文化生活動向等。《紐約客》現由康得納斯出版公司出版。《紐約客》不是完全的新聞雜誌，然而它對美國和國際政治、社會重大事件的深度報道是其特色之一。他一方面保持了輕鬆幽默的主題風格，另一方面它也很快成為嚴肅新聞報道和文學創作的一處顯要出版窗口。

學習筆記

① Interminably all the time; seemingly without stopping 沒完沒了地

原文：rather than rambling on interminably 說話也不像他以往喋喋不休的風格

② Rapturous A rapturous feeling or reaction is one of extreme happiness or enthusiasm.狂喜的；興高采烈的；歡天喜地的

原文：a beaming Hillary Clinton addressed a rapturous crowd at the Sheraton New York Times Square. 喜氣洋洋的希拉里在謝拉頓風格的紐約時代廣場對狂喜的選民說。

③ home stretch The home stretch or the home straight is the last part of a race.最後階段，衝刺階段

原文：The race for the Democratic nomination is in the home stretch, and victory is in sight

她還展望協商會議，「民主黨提名戰已經接近尾聲，勝利在望。」

④ insurmountable A problem that is insurmountable is so great that it cannot be dealt with successfully. 無法解決的;難以克服的;不可逾越的

原文：Strictly as a matter of arithmetic，neither front-runner』s lead is insurmountable.

單從演算法來看，兩黨的領跑者都還沒有穩贏

⑤ exhortations persuade or encourage規勸;勸誡;勸告

原文：Trump, for now, is relying on exhortations and vague promises. 特朗普則一直靠著振奮人心的話和空頭支票。

翻譯：楊雪

校對：王卓

筆記：田陽

策劃：毛燏

取經號Journey To West

我們選取來自世界頂級英文媒體的熱點內容，精心翻譯，並整理出學習筆記。

取經號是你在外語外媒學習之路上的忠實伴侶，給你帶來最棒的學習體驗。

取經路上，你不再一個人。

微信號:JTWest

Attention

這裡每周發布《經濟學人》原版PDF，音頻；更有取經號資深譯者坐陣；歡迎讀者來探討翻譯問題，分享讀譯心得~

加入方式：

推薦閱讀：