中國急需一輪嬰兒潮來避 免經濟蕭條？

文章來源| 華爾街日報Baby Boom or Economy Bust: SternWarnings About China"s Falling FertilityRate中國急需一輪嬰兒潮來避免經濟蕭條？China needs a baby boom--and badly,researchers say.研究人員說，中國需要一個生育高峰，並且是急需。"Get married soon and have lots ofchildren." That"s the advice that 49-year-old Huang Wenzheng gave to collegestudents at a recent forum in Beijingabout China"s population and urbanpolicy.49歲的黃文政在最近北京舉辦的一個中國人口和城市政策論壇上向大學生提出的建議是：早結婚，多生孩子。Mr. Huang, one of the most outspokenone-child policy opponents in China,along with other activists andeconomists, said at the forum that Chinaneeds babies more urgently than everbefore, and the country"s economic fatedepends on whether Beijing can do moreto encourage child births.黃文政是中國反對計劃生育政策呼聲最高的人之一。他與其他活動人士和經濟學家在這個論壇上說，中國比以往任何時候都需要孩子，中國經濟的命運取決於政府能否進一步採取措施鼓勵生育。A shirking population would bedetrimental to China"s development,"leading to a drop of China"s nationalpower and even a decline of thecivilization, " said Mr. Huang, a co-founder of the website Population and theFuture, which promotes the right to havemore than one child.黃文政說，人口規模衰減對中國根本也不是一個好事情，中國的發展會釜底抽薪，導致中國國力下降，甚至整個中華民族的衰敗。他是人口與未來網站的聯合創辦人，這個網站倡導生育權。China"s total population continues togrow, but the nation"s working-agepopulation--those between the ages of16 and 59--has dropped two years in arow, raising concerns about a shrinkinglabor force and economic growthprospects. The share of the elderly, orthose who are more than 65 years old,was 9.7% in 2013, up from 9.4% in 2012,official data showed.中國的人口總數仍在增長，但勞動年齡人口（16到59歲之間）已經連續兩年下降，這引發了對勞動力萎縮和經濟增長前景的擔憂。官方數據顯示，2013年65歲以上的老年人占人口總數的比例從2012年的9.4%升至9.7%。A labor shortage in the short run wouldbe followed by diminishing demand,which in the long run will likely hurtChina"s job market and decrease thenumber of jobs being created, said Mr.Huang, who received a PhD inbiostatistics at John Hopkins University.黃文政說，勞動力缺乏只是一個短期現象，人減少了以後，社會需求也在減少，長遠下去人口衰減帶來的是今後中國就業問題更加的嚴重。黃文政獲得了約翰·霍普金斯大學(Johns Hopkins University)生物統計學博士學位。Such a message isn"t falling on entirelydeaf ears: late last year, Beijing moved toease its decades-long one-child policy byallowing couples to have two children ifone spouse is an only child.這樣的信息並非完全無人理睬：去年年底，中國政府採取行動放鬆其持續了數十年的計劃生育政策，允許一方為獨生子女的夫妻生育二胎。But the policy"s impact has been limited.By the end of May, only 271, 600 coupleshad applied for permission to give birth toa second child, with 241, 300 coupleshaving been given the permit, YangWenzhuang, a director overseeing familyplanning at the National Health andFamily Planning Commission, said at abriefing in July.中國國家衛生和計劃生育委員會計劃生育基層指導司司長楊文庄在7月的一個新聞發布會上說，但這項政策的影響有限。截至今年5月底，只有271,600對夫妻申請生二胎，有241,300對夫妻已經獲准。Economists and researchers say suchsmall steps are far from enough.經濟學家和研究人員說，這類小規模措施遠遠不夠。"I"ve been traveling to different parts ofthe country in recent months to find outexactly what changes are taking place inour society...but wherever I go those whoactually qualify [to have a second child] isless than 5%, " said Gu Baochang, aprofessor at Renmin University. Thereason why that figure is so low is in partbecause many rural residents werealready permitted to have a second child.Likewise, China"s rules previouslyallowed individuals who have no siblingsto give birth to a second child, so long asthey were married to someone whomatched those same conditions.人民大學教授顧寶昌說，這幾個月他走了全國很多地方，就想知道中國社會發生了什麼樣的變化。他還說，他所到的地方符合生二胎條件的人比例不到5%。這個比例之所以這麼低，部分原因在於很多農村居民此前已經獲准生二胎。同樣的，中國此前的規定允許夫妻均為獨生子女的家庭生二胎。Faced with a rapidly aging populationand declining numbers of the working-age, government officials have stronglyhinted that they may need to raise theretirement age.面對迅速老齡化的人口以及不斷減少的適齡勞動人口，政府官員強烈暗示，他們可能需要提高退休年齡。The ratio between the number of peoplewho are paying into the country"s socialinsurance pool and those who receivepensions rose to 3.09 in 2012, up from2.90 in 2003, the latest official datashowed.最新官方數據顯示，2012年，繳納社保的人與領取退休金的人之比上升至3.09:1，高於2003年的2.90:1."When you are 60 years old, who wouldsupport you?" the silver-haired Mr. Gusaid to an audience of about 400students, researchers and journalists lastweek.白髮蒼蒼的顧寶昌上周對約400名學生、研究人員和記者說，當你們到了60歲的時候，誰來養活你們呢？Results of the most recent census in2010 showed that China"s fertility rates,or the number of births per 1, 000 women,was 1.18. Large cities and Beijing andShanghai were even lower, at around 0.7.2010年最新人口普查結果顯示，中國的生育率為1.18。生育率為每1,000名女性生育孩子的數量。北京和上海等大城市的生育率更低，約為0.7。As China"s urbanization rate increases,with more farmers moving into the city,the fertility rate will drop further due tohigher living costs, said Liang Jianzhang,a professor at Peking University.北京大學教授梁建章說，隨著越來越多的農民進入城市，中國的城市化率上升，更高的生活成本將令生育率進一步下降。To make it worse, China is seeing a risingnumber of "leftover women, " or middle-aged urban Chinese women who cannotfind their Mr. Right--and unlike singlewomen in developed nations, unmarriedChinese woman are not willing to havechildren, said Mr. Liang, who"s also thefounder and chairman of Ctrip.com,Chinese online travel company.他說，更糟糕的是，中國出現越來越多的「剩女」，許多中年城市女性無法找到自己的白馬王子，與發達國家的單身女性不同，未婚的中國女人不願意生孩子。梁建章同時也是中國在線旅遊公司攜程旅行網(Ctrip.com)的創始人兼董事會主席。"However you look at it, [the outlook of]China"s fertility rate seems morepessimistic than a lot of other countries, "he said, adding that in 10 to 20 years,China"s population will be greying at apace even faster than that of a decadeago in Japan, where the elderly currentlymake up 25% of all residents. An agingpopulation has partly contributed to the"lost decade" of the Japanese economy,economists have said.梁建章補充說，但是你看，中國生育率的前景似乎比很多其他國家更加悲觀，在10到20年內，中國人口老齡化速度將比十年前的日本更快，目前日本的老年人占人口總數的25%。經濟學家們曾表示，人口老齡化在一定程度上對日本經濟低迷的十年起到了推波助瀾的作用。But others at the forum disputed thenotion that China should be encouraginga new baby boom.但也有人在論壇上對中國應鼓勵一個新的「嬰兒潮」的建議提出異議。"Sounds like we are returning to ChairmanMao"s line of thinking...I think we mustnot make that kind of mistake, " said ChenZhiwu, a Yale University professor.耶魯大學教授陳志武表示：聽起來我們正回到毛主席的思路上去...我認為我們不應該犯這樣的錯誤。Mr. Huang, however, said that even if thegovernment completely scraps the one-child policy, the country"s fertility rate stillwon"t be "normal, " and will insteadcontinue to stay low.然而黃文政說，即使政府完全廢除獨生子女政策，生育率仍然是「不正常」的，並將繼續保持低位。"It would be disastrous for China, " hesaid. "No doubt about that."他說，毋庸置疑，這對中國來說是一場災難。本文由有道詞典原創或授權發布
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