打中國牌勝算幾何？

China and Its Trade Practices Are Coming to the Debates

By SHARON LaFRANIERE October 17, 2012

打中國牌勝算幾何？

SHARON LaFRANIERE 報道 2012年10月17日

Halfway through the fall debates, the sparring between President Obama and Mitt Romney and their running mates has been notable for the absence of an issue Mr. Romney has pressed on the campaign trail and in his television advertising: China.

秋季辯論已經過半， 奧巴馬和米特·羅姆尼(Mitt Romney)及他們的競選夥伴之間的對壘，仍還沒有涉及一個令人矚目的話題，這就是羅姆尼在競選過程中以及電視廣告里一直強調的——中國。

When American policy toward Beijing does come up Tuesday night — or next week, when it will be one of five designated topics in a debate focused solely on foreign affairs — Mr. Romney will have plenty of arguments to draw on.

如果美國對華政策問題的確出現在周二晚(或下周，屆時中國將是外交政策專場辯論的五個指定話題之一)的辯論中，羅姆尼會有許多用得上的論點。

In one recent ad, he accused the Obama administration of letting hundreds of thousands of American factory jobs vanish in the face of what he calls China』s unfair trade practices. 「It』s time to stand up to the cheaters,」 he says in the ad, 「and make sure we protect jobs for the American people.」

在最近的一則廣告中，羅姆尼找奧巴馬政府的差錯，指責其眼看著他稱之為中國的不公平貿易操作方式，導致美國幾十萬個製造業工作機會蒸發。他在廣告中說，「是時候了，讓我們來抵制騙子，讓我們來保護美國人民的工作機會吧。」

Stephen Crowley/The New York Times

2009年，奧巴馬在上海。他和米特·羅姆尼互相攻擊，都稱對方對華態度軟弱。

And that is just part of a fusillade of soft-on-China accusations that Mr. Romney has leveled at Mr. Obama, who he says has allowed the Chinese to manipulate their currency, distort fair trade, steal American technology and hack into American government and corporate computers.

這只是羅姆尼攻擊奧巴馬對華軟弱的一連串炮彈中的一發。他還指責奧巴馬，說其對中國操縱貨幣、破壞公平貿易、竊取美國技術、用黑客入侵美國政府及企業電腦等問題聽之任之。

The Obama campaign has hardly been silent. In an ad earlier this month it said that while Mr. Romney ran a private equity firm, it invested in a Chinese company that exploited low-wage labor. 「Mitt Romney tough on China? Since when?」 the ad asks.

奧巴馬團隊也沒有沉默。他們本月初的一個廣告說，在羅姆尼管理一家私募股權公司時，該公司曾投資一家剝削低薪勞動力的中國公司。該廣告問道，「米特·羅姆尼對華強硬？什麼時候開始的？」

Many Asia experts say Mr. Romney』s comments are indeed tough. They begin with a pledge to brand Beijing a currency manipulator on his first day in office, and end with promises to increase America』s already formidable military presence in the western Pacific and sell new American fighter jets to Taiwan. Analysts say such moves would amount to a profound shift in a policy toward China that has remained remarkably constant for decades across Republican and Democratic administrations. And they would be virtually certain to upend relations with Beijing』s leaders.

許多亞洲問題專家說，羅姆尼的言論確實很強硬。這些言論包括他的一系列承諾，從入主白宮第一天就把中國劃為貨幣操作者，到增強美國在西太平洋地區已經很強大的軍事力量、以及賣給台灣更多的新型美國戰鬥機。分析人士認為，這些舉動會極大改變美國對華政策。而在過去的幾十年里，無論是民主黨執政，還是共和黨執政，美國對華政策的顯著特點是其穩定性。而羅姆尼的承諾幾乎肯定會顛覆中美關係。

Whether a President Romney would carry out such pledges, however, is another matter. 」There is a lot of game playing on both sides,」 said Uri Dadush, director of the International Economics Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. 「Once in office, presidents tend to recognize that the Chinese don』t react well when you point a gun to their head.」

然而，一旦當了總統，羅姆尼會不會履行這些承諾，則是另外一回事。卡內基國際和平研究院(Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)的國際經濟項目主任尤里·達都詩(Uri Dadush)說，「這些都是競選雙方的博弈。一旦走馬上任，總統們就會意識到，你拿槍對著中國人的腦袋時，他們不會作出良好的反應。」

Even some of Mr. Obama』s own current and former aides acknowledge that Mr. Obama went too far to accommodate China』s leaders during his first year in office. The White House hardened its approach after the Chinese gave the cold shoulder to the United States on issues ranging from climate change to Iran』s nuclear program. The president then pursued trade grievances, firmed up diplomatic and military ties with Beijing』s neighbors and designated the east Pacific as a central focus of American military strategy.

包括奧巴馬自己的一些現任及前任助手都承認，當總統的第一年裡，奧巴馬曾過分遷就中國領導人。中國在從氣候變化到伊朗核武器等一系列問題上都對美冷淡後，白宮方面的對華措施變強硬了。奧巴馬政府開始了貿易申訴，加強了同中國鄰國的外交和軍事關係，並把美國軍事策略重心向太平洋東部地區轉移。

Mr. Romney promises to display even more spine.

羅姆尼承諾其對華政策將更加強硬。

「The policy that Obama has adopted of constantly acquiescing to China, constantly giving China more room in the hope that China will grant us some concessions, simply hasn』t worked,」 said Alex Wong, a foreign policy adviser to Mr. Romney.

羅姆尼的一名外交政策顧問亞歷克斯·黃(Alex Wong)說，「奧巴馬不斷地對中國逆來順受，不斷對中國讓步，希望中國也因此對我們有所妥協，這種政策根本不管用。」

Mr. Romney often promises to officially declare that China is deliberately weakening its currency, the renminbi, to make its exports more competitive, thereby costing American jobs. That action would only trigger bilateral consultations. But should Beijing refuse to bend, he has said, he would instruct the Commerce Department to impose duties on Chinese imports.

羅姆尼常常承諾他將正式宣布中國操縱貨幣，故意讓人民幣貶值，以獲取出口競爭優勢，從而造成許多美國人失業。這樣的宣布只能引發雙邊磋商。他說，但是如果中方拒絕讓步的話，他會下令美國商務部(Commerce Department)對來自中國的進口產品加征關稅。

In the 2008 presidential campaign Mr. Obama also promised to label China a currency manipulator. But once in office, he opted for behind-the-scenes pressure on Beijing to let the renminbi strengthen. So has every president since 1994. Many economists argue that the pressure, combined with China』s own desire to rebalance its economy, has worked. The renminbi is no longer grossly undervalued, they say, although other powerful hidden subsidies, like artificially low interest rates, remain. Since 2005, the renminbi has appreciated about 30 percent, the International Monetary Fund concluded in July, revising its status from 「substantially」 to 「moderately undervalued.」

在2008年競選總統時，奧巴馬也曾承諾要給中國貼上貨幣操縱者的標籤。但是一旦就職總統，他選擇了在幕後對中方施加壓力讓人民幣升值的做法。1994年以來的各位總統都是這麼做的。許多經濟學家稱，這種來自美國的壓力，連同中方自身重新平衡其經濟的願望，已經在起作用。他們說，人民幣的價值已經不再被嚴重低估，雖然其他強有力的隱形補貼仍然存在，例如人為壓低貸款利率。2005年以來，人民幣已經升值約30%。國際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund) 7月份對人民幣的評價也從過去的「被大幅低估」改為「被中度低估」。

Similarly, China』s current account surplus — which measures in part how much more money China makes from exports than it spends on imports — has fallen to three percent of gross domestic product, down from 10 percent in 2007. That suggests a stronger renminbi has reduced the trade imbalance between China and its partners.

同樣，中國的國際收支經常項目順差佔國內生產總值的比例已由2007年的10%下降至3%。該順差部分地衡量中國出口所得超過其進口支出的金額。這表明，人民幣升值後，中國和其貿易夥伴之間的逆差有所減小。

」I think we should declare victory,」 said Nicholas R. Lardy, a senior economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. The Carnegie Endowment』s Mr. Dadush asserts that Mr. Romney』s pledge makes 「no economic or trade policy sense, given what China has done and given its importance.」

「我認為我們應宣布已取得了勝利，」彼得森國際經濟研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)的高級經濟學家尼古拉斯·R·拉迪(Nicholas R. Lardy)說。卡內基國際和平研究院的達都詩稱，「鑒於中國已採取的措施及其重要性」，羅姆尼的承諾「不論作為經濟還是貿易政策，都講不通」。

Grant D. Aldonas, Mr. Romney』s trade adviser and a Commerce under secretary for international trade during President George W. Bush』s first term, acknowledges the renminbi』s gains but argues the government recently has been suppressing its value.

羅姆尼的貿易顧問、曾在喬治·W·布希(George W. Bush)總統第一個任期內任美國商務部負責國際貿易的副部長一職的格蘭特·阿爾多納斯(Grant D. Aldonas)承認人民幣確有升值，但他指出，最近中國政府一直在壓制人民幣的價值。

The renminbi has indeed weakened one percent against the dollar since February, according to Michael Pettis, a finance professor at Peking University and a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment. But Mr. Pettis argues that the reason for the renminbi』s fall is capital flight, not government intervention. So many Chinese are taking money out of the country that Beijing is 「actually forcing the renminbi up, not down,」 he said.

據北京大學金融學教授、卡內基國際和平研究院的高級研究員邁克爾·佩蒂斯(Michael Pettis)的估計，自2月份以來，人民幣兌美元匯率確實下降了1%。但佩蒂斯認為，人民幣貶值的原因是資金外流，而不是政府干預。他說，現在很多中國人都在把資金轉移出境，政府「實際上是在迫使人民幣升值，而不是貶值」。

Mr. Romney is threatening to use the Commerce Department』s powers to unilaterally impose tariffs on Chinese products, while the Obama administration』s main tactic against unfair trade practices has been to bring cases before the World Trade Organization. Mr. Romney argues there is no need to hold back because a trade war is already under way. But many economists say the current battles are mere skirmishes, not a real trade war. They warn that unilateral sanctions could trigger Chinese retaliation that would more than offset any economic benefits.

羅姆尼正在威脅要動用美國商務部的權力單方面地對中國產品徵收關稅，而奧巴馬政府應對不公平貿易行為的主要策略是向世界貿易組織(World Trade Organization)提起訴訟。羅姆尼稱，沒有必要退縮不前，因為中美貿易戰已經打響。但很多經濟學家表示，現在的較量只是小衝突，並非真正的貿易戰。他們警告說，單方面的制裁可能招致中國的報復，其後果可能會抵消制裁措施帶來的任何經濟收益。

Consider 2009, when the Commerce Department imposed a duty on imports of Chinese tires — a move sought by the United Steelworkers Union and widely criticized by economists and by Mr. Romney as politically motivated. Gary Hufbauer, a trade expert with the Peterson Institute, said the action protected at most 1,200 American jobs but last year alone cost American consumers $1.1 billion in higher-priced tires.

回想2009年，美國商務部對中國輪胎徵收進口關稅時，曾遭到經濟學家的廣泛批評，羅姆尼也指責其背後有政治動機。這個關稅是美國鋼鐵工人聯合會(United Steelworkers Union)尋求的，彼得森國際經濟研究所的貿易專家加里·赫夫鮑爾(Gary Hufbauer)說，該措施最多保護了1200個美國的就業崗位，但僅去年一年，美國消費者就因購買高價輪胎而多花了11億美元（約合68.9億人民幣）。

China responded with tariffs on imports of American chicken parts that cost American poultry producers an estimated $1 billion in lost sales. Last month, the Obama administration let the tire tariff quietly expire.

作為回應，中國對美國出口的雞產品徵收關稅，此舉使美國家禽養殖者損失了約10億美元（約合62.7億人民幣）的銷售額。上個月，奧巴馬政府讓輪胎關稅悄然過期。

On the military front, Mr. Romney』s aides have said he wants to build up the American military presence to counter China』s influence in the western Pacific. The Obama administration has moved in that direction, expanding an Australian base to 2,500 Marines and stationing four combat ships in Singapore. Mr. Romney has also criticized President Obama』s 2011 decision to sell Taiwan $5.85 billion in military hardware to update its air force instead of approving Taiwan』s request for 66 new and more advanced F-16 fighters. As president, an aide said, Mr. Romney would approve such a request.

而在軍事方面，羅姆尼的助手曾說過，他希望加強美國在西太平洋地區的軍事存在，來對抗中國在該區域的影響力。奧巴馬政府已經在這樣做，將部署在一個澳大利亞基地的海軍陸戰隊隊員增加到2500名，並向新加坡派駐了四艘戰艦。2011年，奧巴馬批准了數額達58.5億美元（約合367億人民幣）的對台軍售，以升級台灣空軍力量，但沒有批准台灣從美國進口66架新的、更先進的F-16戰鬥機的請求。羅姆尼批評奧巴馬的這一決定；他的一名助手稱，如果當選總統，羅姆尼會批准台灣的請求。

「There would be a tough Chinese reaction,」 said Bonnie S. Glaser, a senior fellow with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, who described China』s opposition to the sale as an unofficial red line. 「The question is how tough.」

美國戰略與國際問題研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)的高級研究員邦妮·S·格拉澤(Bonnie S. Glaser)認為如果美國不顧中方反對向台出售F16戰鬥機將觸犯中國的非官方警戒線，她說，「中國肯定對此反應強烈，問題是強烈到什麼程度。」

翻譯：梁英、谷菁璐

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