沃倫·巴菲特和查理·芒格的五誡

2015-01-29 22:38:10

沃倫·巴菲特和查理·芒格是長期普通股投資方面的先驅。有鑒於此，我們把上周末(股東大會上)他們透露的真知灼見整理出來和大家分享。1. Thou Shalt Not Envy.不可嫉妒Munger: 「We are way better off by not adding to a culture of envy."芒格：「不嫉妒能讓我們變得更好。」At Smead Capital Management, our motto is "Only the Lonely Can Play." Sticking to your own discipline when other investors are temporarily doing better than you, is effectively avoiding envy. We don"t envy the returns others make in their disciplines and hope our investors stick to the kind of long durations emphasized by Berkshire Hathaway.在史密德資產管理公司，我們的座右銘是「只有孤獨者玩得起。」當有人暫時做得比你好，堅持你自己的原則，這樣能夠有效地避免嫉妒。我們不嫉妒靠自己的（投資）原則，掙得收益的人，也希望我們的投資者，能夠堅持伯克希爾·哈撒韋所強調的長期持有原則。2. Thou Shall Hire Great People and Over-trust Them.任賢能，並信任他們Buffett: "They make mistakes, but we get more success overall."巴菲特：「他們會犯錯，但總的來說我們會更成功。」Mr. Buffett sounded like author Jim Collins who said, "get the right people on the bus." We try to look for this in our investments and attempt to do this in our own company.巴菲特的話，聽起來像作家吉姆·柯林斯說的，「把對的人拉上車。」我們在投資過程中，試著找到這種人，並在公司內嘗試做到信任。3. Thou Shall View Competition as the Enemy of Competence.應該把競爭視為你能力的敵人。Munger: 「Don"t try out for the NBA if you are 5"2" tall. To find a circle of competence, compete against idiots.The slowness of what we do causes few to compete with our model."芒格：「如果你身高只有五尺二寸（157.480厘米），不要去嘗試NBA。在你能力範圍，與無知者競爭。我們行事緩慢，使得很少人能夠和我們的模式競爭。」In essence, we think Buffett and Munger were saying that one should invest in S&P 500 index sectors, industries and companies where the consensus is fearful. Buffett has said that you "pay a high price for a cheery consensus" and gave a loud re-endorsement of CEO Brian Moynihan at Bank of America. The long duration confidence and "slowness" of what we do in our large bank holdings will be a source of future success, in our lonely opinion!事實上，我們認為巴菲特和芒格是在說，人們應該投資標準普爾指數里的部門、行業和公司，因為它們擁有驚人的一致性。巴菲特曾說過，你要「付出巨大的代價，才能得到令人愉快的共識。」，這句話得到美國銀行首席執行官布萊恩·莫伊尼罕的大聲贊同。對長期持股的信心，以及我們對大型銀行股票的「緩慢」動作，會成為我們將來的成功之源，這是我們獨特的主張！4. Thou Shall Value Qualitative over Quantitative.比起定量分析，因更重視定性分析。Buffett: "Aesop Was Right (a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush). Fisher was qualitative in analyzing stocks, Graham was quantitative and Charlie convinced me that Fisher is correct."巴菲特：「伊索是對的（一鳥在手勝過雙鳥在林）。費雪對股票進行定性分析，格雷厄姆進行定量分析，而查理讓我確信費雪是對的。」Our eight criteria have a clearly qualitative bent and do not emphasize the deep value pattern of Ben Graham. We will comment more about this subject next week, related to recent statistics which show that long-term Alpha is connected to low-capex and high free-cash flow generation companies.我們的八個準則，清晰地偏向定性分析，且並不強調本·格雷厄姆的深層價值模式。下周我們會結合最近的數據來對此進行說明。近期數據顯示：低資本支出、高自由現金流公司有望長期跑贏市場。5. Thou Shalt Remove Ignorance from Investing.投資要去除無知Munger: "Investing and business success is about ignorance removal."芒格：「投資與事業的成功就是在去除無知。」We have argued for years (just ask my kids) that all the math you need to be a great investor is learned by the end of 7th grade. Don"t let complexity and high math fool you in the investment vehicles you analyze. We contend that successful investing in common stocks comes in long durations and from doing something which is relatively simple, but humanly hard to execute. Charlie said that See"s Candy taught Warren and him about brands and led to the purchase of Coke in 1988. In effect, it "removed some of their ignorance" associated with brands.我們主張了很多年（這點可以問我的孩子們），成為一個好的投資者，只需要擁有七年級的數學知識。在你用投資工具分析時，不要被複雜的高等數學騙到。我們主張，普通股票的成功投資，來自於長期持有，這相對簡單，但並不容易做到。查理說，喜詩糖果讓沃倫和他學會品牌的重要性，並使得他們在1988年買下可口可樂。事實上，這就是在品牌方面「去除他們的無知」。
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