Sean Ellis 上海研討會實錄一：圍繞核心使命共同努力

來自專欄蚊子的博客

近期在上海舉辦的Growth Workshop邀請到Sean Ellis（《Hacking Growth》第一作者）做了一次超過80分鐘的精彩演講，今天開始用一個新的系列對其內容進行梳理和解讀。

本系列總共四篇左右，今天更新第一篇，主題為：Aligning Around the Core Mission（圍繞核心使命共同努力 ）。中途照常跑題，請先做好準備：）

先簡單介紹下Sean Ellis（肖恩·埃利斯）其人。

Sean Ellis在2010年首次提出增長黑客理論，他建議創業公司應當對用戶數據進行深入挖掘，快速迭代產品，以實現用戶數量的爆髮式增長，這個過程如同「被黑客操縱」一樣神奇。增長黑客理論被矽谷的創業者視為寶典，Facebook、Linkedln、Airbnb等超級獨角獸的成功都是增長黑客的典型案例。Sean Ellis還親自實踐了自己的方法，他在Dropbox公司任職增長顧問期間，公司每年的增長率超過了500%。

如今，傳統的營銷手段已經走向式微，流量紅利也逐漸褪去。這次演講中，Sean Ellis向大家傳授他的增長秘訣，講解創業者如何才能將有限的資金用在刀刃上，在短時間內實現用戶數量的高效增長。

「When you want to get everyone in the company working together to drive growth, it』s important that they understand something beyond just making money but instead what is the real mission of business.」

團隊成員擁有共同的信仰，便會構成一個有心智的組織，這樣的組織才是一個真正有戰鬥力的組織。物質獎勵並不是激勵員工的法寶，有時甚至會事與願違：物質激勵甚至會降低積極性，而如果能夠讓每個成員都知曉公司的核心使命，這就會極大提高每個員工的參與感，從而使每個人的微小決定到每個部門的目標設定，都是基於這個共同的終極願景的，這樣的公司就會成為一個有靈魂的組織系統。Amazon和Netflix都是這樣的組織，它們是這個時代偉大的顛覆者，具有值得效仿的增長模式。通過將Amazon、Netflix與被顛覆的Walmart、Fox的對比，可以看出它們的增長模式的巨大差異，正是這些差異使得Amazon快速超越Walmart，幫助Netflix遠遠甩開Fox。

下面我們來對這些差異點進行一一解讀：

1. 增長型心態/Growth Mindset

「One of the big things that helps teams start to align is to realize that there』s actually a problem if they are comfortable in how they』ve always done things. Growth mindset is something that probably where you need to work harder to be effective.」

保持增長型心態需要永不滿足、需要居安思危、需要永遠有更高的願景、需要被巨大的恐懼驅動。

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講到這裡真得忍不住說說百度和樂視，不是吐槽或詆毀，真得是身為一個中國人對自家企業的恨鐵不成鋼，真得是心疼（註：以下均為蚊子個人觀點）。

既然幸也不幸地，隨著山西幫的倒台，樂視成了「新」樂視，那也就不再去扯這個已經癒合無望的傷疤了。我們嘮嘮百度。

之前在《02 產品經理的日常》的用戶體驗模塊中，我曾提到如果當初Google沒有退出，百度應該會比現在更健康，這裡接著這個話茬兒多說兩句。知道下面這些話是被情緒裹挾著的，但此時真得是不吐不快，不「發泄」一下是沒辦法接著寫下去的，還請原諒我缺少論據也不管邏輯了。

先橫向來看看BAT分別處於什麼段位。和相對應的美國同類型的公司對比：騰訊與Facebook的市值一直保持不相上下的勢頭，甚至在今年（571億美元）反超了Facebook（546億美元）；阿里（527）與Amazon（769）有差距，但都屬於第一梯隊；百度呢，百度之於Google可以被概括為「一直在追趕，從來未接近，」且有越拉越大的跡象——2018年百度市值94億美元，Google 817億。

百度原本可能成為中國的Google的，可實際情況卻是Google的退場使百度失去了奔跑的動力。2006-2010年，百度相繼推出了MP3搜索、知道、貼吧，這可以說是百度的產品黃金期，可是在2010年，Google突然宣布離開中國，這之後百度就一直在收攏中國搜索市場，在產品上的進化戛然而止：從2010年到2016年，再也沒有一款產品能和早期的貼吧、知道相提並論。

從此，百度=搜索。流量變現成為百度絕對的主營收入：將廣告直接置入搜索結果，以魚目混珠式的點擊獲得更快捷的盈利。百度成為了一家專註將Google「漢化」，然後躺著賺錢的公司，通過搜索阻礙信息流動，讓符合它利益的信息排在前面，不符合的排在後面，，，「魏則西事件」是不可避免的。

隨後這幾年，百度也在移動互聯網，O2O，人工智慧領域進行了「偉大」的嘗試，但也只真得是嘗試而已，每個都是轟轟烈烈地開頭，草草了事收尾。我們來回顧一下過去幾年它「異彩紛呈」的戰略重點：2013年，傳統搜索&移動雲&LBS&國際化；2014年深度學習；2015年，O2O&連接人與服務；2016年，人工智慧；2017年，內容分發&連接服務&金融創新&人工智慧。

那麼有什麼讓我們記得住的產品呢？

移動互聯網領域——百度地圖（市場份額28.7%）與高德地圖（39%）罵戰不斷，但也只能屈居第二；

O2O領域——百度投了200億，調用了精兵強將（從高級副總裁向海龍到副總裁曾良）和最優質的資源（搜索、地圖、應用市場等核心入口支持以及鳳巢體系與糯米在商戶端的協同），結果呢？2017年8月，百度外賣5億美元出售，此外還打包一些流量入口資源作價3億美元，最終以8億美元被餓了么收購，糯米還是被吃了；

再看雲——如今全國雲計算市場佔比：阿里雲48%，騰訊10%，金山7%，電信6%，Ucoud6%，百度雲的份額？抱歉，肉眼不可見；

AI——「我們要All In AI」言猶在耳，可與之相伴的卻是吳恩達、余凱、倪凱、賈磊等人工智慧頂級專家相繼離開，如果不是寫這篇文章，真得差點忘記不久前還有個叫「百度大腦」的產品。

AI和百度的技術基因最接近，衷心希望這次百度能抓住它，可是2018年5月18日，陸奇離職（昨天/6.30最新消息，陸奇加入拼多多），百度大跌9%。

這還沒完，別忘了還有頭條在虎視眈眈地望著移動端的搜索……

曾經多好的一手牌呀，真得是心疼啊。 ——————————————————————————————————

跑題結束，回歸增長黑客。

保持增長型心態，並不像說的那麼簡單，尤其是對於已經成功的企業。

因為這意味他們需要不斷推翻自己已經玩得很順手的模式，需要不斷跳出舒適區，至少需要做到如下幾點：

·廣泛相信做任何事情都有更好的方法

·依靠不斷的試驗找到那些更好的方法

·每做一次試驗，都能有所收穫並且完善今後的試驗

·在最關鍵之處進行試驗和學習

2. 數據位於組織的核心/Data at Core of Organization

「You can』t drive improvement if you don』t understand what』s happening. So you really need to understand what』s happening to be able to make it even better. The way you find the better to do things is to test and to have some science behind it. So that means data is at the core of the organization..」

Netflix就是一個典型的以數據為核心，對傳統娛樂產業模式進行顛覆，實現爆髮式增長的模型：

「It started with simply you used to get movies in the mail in the America so they will come on a DVD and you will subscribe. Every month, you pay some money and you will get new movies sent. When you sent back the old ones the new ones would come. And that』s how Netflix started.」

也許你會覺得這個模型太過簡單，是沒有產生什麼數據的，但是Netflix 關注的並不是訂閱過程中直接產生的這些數據，而是花大工夫去研究如何優化推薦，留住更多的用戶，因為他們知道留存率才是關鍵：

「If they could recommend good movies people would keep using Netflix over time. And if people don』t like the movies that they are getting, they will cancel and then there is no more money for those people. So what Netflix really focused on was how do we improve our recommendations. And that was the start of the business.」

後來，當人們開始轉向互聯網訂閱，就提供了更多的數據，這也使Netflix實現了針對每個用戶的精準推薦，把他們牢牢地綁定：

「They would know if you actually watched the movie. They would know if you watch the whole movie or you stopped after 15minutes because you didn』t like it. They realize that at midnight they shouldn』t recommend a two-hour movie because most people don』t have time to watch a two hour movie at midnight, but maybe a half-hour television show is a better recommendation. So they got smarter about making the right recommendations on the right movies which kept people locked in even more and they kept using Netflix.」

最後，由於已經對人們的行為瞭若指掌，知道每一類人喜歡的內容類型，他們明確知道哪種內容是有市場的，開始進軍內容製作，《紙牌屋》就是這樣一部有的放矢之所，自此，「網飛」（Netflix譯名）真得開始逆風飛翔了：

「Then they also learned over time was that this type of person so a young man is gonna wanna see a different type of entertainment than an older woman or a family is going to see different entertainment than young single people. So all of the datas are forming the types of programs that they should make. It doesn』t make them creative, but when they talk to the creative people now, they say yes, there is a market for that. So, yes let』s invest in creating that. And compare that to a Disney or Fox or a Warner Brothers. These companies don』t even know most of the time who』s watching their movie. So they go into a movie theatre. The movie theatre might know but if the person pays his cash even they don』t know. So there』s very little data feedback loop for them to really understand the situation and improve where Netflix understands a lot. And so that』s why there』s such a threat from Netflix compared to some of these other companies.」

所以，Netflix實現騰飛的幾個關鍵點是：

·娛樂基於訂閱，這就意味著要關注留存問題

·基於數據，優化推薦

·數據流提供新的用戶參與洞察，進一步改進推薦

·用戶參與洞察有助於開發原創內容

3. 共同使命/Shared Mission

開篇就提到了共同使命的重要性：Amazon和Netflix是增長顛覆者，他們的各個職能部門擁有共同的使命，進而能夠高效協作；而Walmart和Fox等被顛覆者，則都呈現出各部門彼此孤立的狀態，是大不了大仗的。

「The whole reason for the business to exist is because you』ve noticed that customers have a need that the other products out there are fulfilling. And as a business you wanna work together to fulfill these needs. Different groups are really working together to ultimately impact the goal of the business. Much more than just simply what the individual, their goals are.」

共同使命的終極要義是要能夠最大限度的影響用戶，Sean Ellis提出可以用北極星指標（NSM/North Star Metric）衡量影響程度，確立共同使命：

「That metric shouldn』t just be dollars. Dollars or Yuan is important to keep the business going, but dollars alone is not impact, so what you wanna do is really focus on value for the customers. This North Star Metric is really a metric that focuses on how do we measure value across the customer base, how do we know that customer are getting more value。」

NSM需要能夠對交付給客戶的價值的增長進行量化，需要提供衡量持續性發展的視角。

藉助Facebook和Lyft的案例來形象化的理解NSM：

「For Facebook and probably the same way with WeChat， theres not really any value if you just go sign up an account. You put your information there. What did you do, how does that help you? you don』t get value until you connect with other people. Only when you』re connected with other people, the platform comes to life and you start to see some value. And Facebook further learned that it』s not only just one connection, they had to give people to seven connections. If they got people to seven connections in a short period of time, then those people came back. What they found out through analyzing the data was that they had to get to the seven people in ten days, or most people will give up their service. So their goal then became seven people in ten days was kind of the aha moment, they got them to say, I understand the value of this service. And the North Star Metric then became the total number of the daily active users, so every day how many people are coming into the system checking their feed, updating their information. That』s the number of active customers that are getting value from the service that getting everyone working together.」

所以，Facebook（微信也類似）將其北極星指標設定為：每日活躍用戶（DAU） 。

Lyft則不同：

「Lyft being like Didi, their value are a little bit different, the value for Lyft is when someone actually gets to ride somewhere. So if you』re a passenger the first time you pull out your smart phone and you order a car, then the car arrives, that feels good. OK, I get this. I』m gonna keep using this product. And then the other side of this equation is if you』re a driver, the first time that your phone goes off and says somebody needs a ride, and you go on pick them up, and you drive them somewhere, and they actually pay you some money. Wow, that』s pretty good, I get the value of this. So for Lyft, the aha moment is pretty simple, it』s just a simple transaction that first ride or that first time that someone rides in your car, you get the value. And then the NSM for Lyft or for Didi would be weekly rides, so each week how many people are taking a ride. Because a ride is when some value happens. So if 10% more people taking a ride this week than last week, it means that there』s more value and that value gets people to talk to their friends about it, that value gets people coming back and using it each time.」

所以，Lyft（滴滴、摩拜、OFO也一樣）也找到了正確的NSM：每周搭乘次數。

今天就到這裡，後續幾篇的主題為：

通過試驗習慣加快增長 / Accelerating Growth via Testing Habit

設立高影響目標 / Setting High Impact Objectives

以激活促進增長 / Unlocking Growth with Activation

進行整合 / Bringing it All Together

如果對增長黑客理論感興趣，可以去找原書《Hacking Growth》（有中文譯本）了解一下。有個中國創業者寫了兩本同名書，聽說也不錯哦。

瞧左邊，「贊」一下？

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