【媒庫文選】英語仍將是「世界上最受青睞」的語言嗎？

Can English Remain the "World"s Favourite" Language？

英語仍將是「世界上最受青睞」的語言嗎？

Robin Lustig 羅賓·勒斯蒂格

English is spoken by hundreds of millions of people worldwide， but do the development of translation technology and 「hybrid」 languages threaten its status？

For how much longer will English qualify as the 「world"s favourite language」？ The World Economic Forum estimates about 1.5 billion people around the world speak it - but fewer than 400 million have it as their first language.

English is the world"s favourite lingua franca - the language people are most likely to turn to when they don"t share a first language. Imagine， for example， a Chinese speaker who speaks no French in conversation with a French speaker who speaks no Chinese. The chances are that they would use English.

Five years ago， perhaps. But not any more. Thanks to advances in computer translation and voice-recognition technology， they can each speak their own language， and hear what their interlocutor is saying， machine-translated in real time.

So English"s days as the world"s top global language may be numbered. To put it at its most dramatic: the computers are coming， and they are winning.

At present， if you want to do business internationally， or play the latest video games， or listen to the latest popular music， you"re going to have a difficult time if you don"t speak any English. But things are changing fast.

At Stanford University， in California， Wonkyum Lee， a South Korean computer scientist， is helping to develop translation and voice-recognition technology that will be so good that when you call a customer service helpline， you won"t know whether you"re talking to a human or a computer.

But this is not the only challenge English is facing. Because so many people speak it as their second or third language， hybrid forms are spreading， combining elements of 「standard」 English with vernacular languages. In India alone， you can find Hinglish （Hindi-English）， Benglish （Bengali-English） and Tanglish （Tamil-English）.

In the US， many Hispanic Americans， with their roots in Central and South America， speak Spanglish， combining elements from English and the language of their parents and grandparents.

English owes its global dominance to being the language of what until recently were two of the world"s most powerful nations: the US and the UK. But now， especially with the rise of China as an economic superpower， the language is being challenged.

If you are an ambitious young jobseeker in sub-Saharan Africa， you might be better off learning Mandarin Chinese and looking for work in China than relying on your school-level English and hoping for a job in the US or UK.

In the US itself， learning Chinese is becoming increasingly popular. In 2015， it was reported that the number of school students studying the language had doubled in two years and， at college level， there had been a 50% rise over the past decade.

In Uganda， however， all secondary schools must conduct classes entirely in English， and some parents teach their young children English as their first language. In many parts of the world， English is still regarded as a passport to success.

So is the future of English at risk？ I don"t think so， although its global dominance may well diminish over the coming decades. Like all languages， it is constantly changing and adapting to new needs. Until recently， 「text」 and 「friend」 were simple nouns. Now， they are also verbs， as in 「I"ll text you，」 or 「Why don"t you friend me？」

全世界講英語的人數以億計，不過翻譯技術的發展和「混合」語言的出現威脅到英語的地位嗎？

英語還會在多長時間裡堪稱「世界上最受青睞的語言」？據世界經濟論壇估計，全世界約有15億人講英語——但是把英語作為第一語言的人不到4億。

英語是世界上最受歡迎的通用語——也就是當人們第一語言不通時最有可能使用的語言。比如，設想一個不說法語而說漢語的人與一個不說漢語而說法語的人交談。他們很可能會使用英語。

放在五年以前，或許如此。不過如今不再是這樣了。由於計算機翻譯和語音識別技術的進步，他們可以各講各的語言，然後聽對方說了什麼，由機器實時作出翻譯。

因此，英語作為世界頭號全球性語言的日子或許屈指可數了。用最具戲劇性的表述來說：計算機來了，它們要贏了。

眼下，如果你想在國際上經商、玩最新的視頻遊戲或者聽最新的流行音樂，完全不會說英語就會困難重重。但情況正迅速發生改變。

在加利福尼亞州的斯坦福大學，韓國計算機科學家李元兼正在幫助研發先進的翻譯和語音識別技術，它會先進得讓你在撥打客服熱線時分辨不清自己是在和人還是在和計算機講話。

但這並非英語目前所面臨的唯一挑戰。由於有太多的人把英語作為第二或第三語言，混合式正在傳播，它們結合了「標準」英語的元素與本地語言。單是在印度就有印式英語（印地語-英語）、孟加拉式英語（孟加拉語-英語）和泰米爾式英語（泰米爾語-英語）。

在美國，許多拉美裔美國人的祖籍在中南美洲，他們講的是西班牙式英語，結合了英語的元素與他們的父輩和祖輩所講語言的元素。

英語在全球的主導地位應歸功於它是直到不久前還是世界上最強大的兩個國家——美國和英國所使用的語言。不過現在，特別是隨著中國崛起為經濟超級大國，英語面臨著挑戰。

如果你是生活在撒哈拉以南非洲地區的一個雄心勃勃的年輕求職者，學習中國普通話並在中國找工作或許比仰仗在學校學的那點英語、寄希望於在美國或英國找份工作要好。

在美國自身境內，學中文正變得越來越流行。2015年，據稱學中文的在校中小學生人數在兩年里增加了一倍，在高校，最近10年來，學中文的人增加了50%。

不過，在烏干達，所有中學必須全英文授課，有些父母把英語作為第一語言教給孩子。在世界上許多地方，英語仍被視為成功的敲門磚。

那麼英語未來處境危險嗎？我認為不會，不過它在全球的主導地位很可能在未來幾十年里日趨衰落。和所有語言一樣，它在不斷改變並適應新的需求。就在不久以前，「text（簡訊）」和「friend（朋友）」還只是名詞。現在，它們也可以作動詞，比如「I"ll text you（我會發簡訊給你）」或者「Why don"t you friend me（你為什麼不加我為好友）？」（李鳳芹譯自英國廣播公司網站5月23日文章）