巴以關係：新的常態

07-01

Israel and Palestine以色列和巴勒斯坦

The new normal

新的常態

No matter what Israel』s prime minister says, the conflict with the Palestinians cannot simply be 「managed」不管以色列總理怎麼說，巴以衝突都不可能被簡單「掌控」

Jul 12th 2014 | From the print edition of The Economist

譯者：wendy220

THE prime minister of Israel, Binyamin Netanyahu, has sought to make life normal. While the Middle East has gone up in flames, Israel』s economy has thrived. Cafés emptied a decade ago by Palestinian suicide-bombers are once again teeming with customers. Demonstrators in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv have protested not just about war and peace, but even more vociferously about the price of cottage cheese.

以色列總理本雅明·內塔尼亞胡（Binyamin Netanyahu）試圖回歸平靜生活。在中東戰火連天之際，以色列經濟蓬勃發展。以色列咖啡館十年前因巴勒斯坦自殺式襲擊門可羅雀，現又顧客盈門了。耶路撒冷和特拉維夫的示威者抗議的內容不只是戰爭和平，他們對農家乾酪高價的憤慨更為強烈。

This unreal normality is now under threat. After a two-year lull, rockets fired from Gaza have rained down on Israel. The Israel Defence Forces have struck hundreds of sites in Gaza. The army is ready to mobilise up to 40,000 reserves. The talk is of a ground offensive against Hamas, which governs Gaza (see article). Palestinians, 70 of whom have already been killed, are sliding towards a third uprising, or intifada.

這種不真實的生活常態正面臨著威脅。兩年的停火後，從加沙發射的火箭如雨般落在以色列。以色列國防軍襲擊了加沙的數百據點，軍隊正準備調動4萬預備軍，據說將對掌管加沙的哈馬斯發動地面襲擊（另見文）。70名巴克斯坦人被殺，巴勒斯坦正朝第三次暴動邁進。

Mr Netanyahu』s mistake—compounded by the actions of Mahmoud Abbas, leader of the Palestinians on the West Bank—is to think that their versions of normality can be sustained simply by managing the conflict. A stand-off is always liable to tip into violence. Lasting peace will come about only when the two sides reach a comprehensive settlement.

內塔尼亞胡的錯誤是單純地認為只要控制衝突，以色列的常態就能夠持續。約旦河西岸的巴勒斯坦領導人馬哈茂德·阿巴斯（Mahmoud Abbas）的舉動使這一錯誤的影響更加惡化了。僵持局面總是容易演變成暴力衝突。只有巴以雙方達成全面協議，才可能帶來持久和平。

More than maintenance

不僅是保持

Today』s violence was triggered by the murder of three Israeli teenagers, snatched on their way back from study at ayeshiva in an Israeli settlement in the West Bank. Mr Netanyahu blamed Hamas—on evidence that remains unclear—leading to the arrest of hundreds of Palestinians, including some prisoners who had recently been released under an American-sponsored scheme designed to boost peace talks with Mr Abbas. In retaliation, and outraged at the murder of a young Palestinian, militants fired rockets into Israel. The IDF responded with lethal force. In a few short days, the original offence was superseded by the logic of escalating action and reaction.

居住於約旦河西岸以色列定居點的三名少年在放學回家途中被綁架謀殺，引發了現在的衝突。內塔尼亞胡將此事歸咎於哈馬斯——尚無確鑿證據——導致幾百名巴勒斯坦人被捕，其中包括近期被釋放的巴勒斯坦囚犯。這些囚犯是在美國牽線的巴以和談計划下出獄的。上述種種加之一名年輕的巴勒斯坦人被謀殺一事令巴勒斯坦震怒，好戰分子發動了報復襲擊，向以色列發射導彈。以色列國防軍回以致命襲擊。短短几天之內，以牙還牙的邏輯取代了最初的不悅，局勢不斷惡化。

Such fragility is a symptom of the influence of extremists on both sides. Some on the Israeli right see a chance to smash Hamas, which has been weakened in Gaza, both by its own incompetence and by Egypt』s new government closing the tunnels leading from Sinai into Gaza. But Israeli force is more likely to revive Hamas than break it. The Islamists would once again rally support as the main resistance to the hated occupiers, whilst leaving Mr Abbas looking more like the stooge.

局勢的脆弱說明了雙方極端分子的影響力之大。部分以色列右派看到了痛擊哈馬斯的機會——由於其自身的能力不足以及埃及政府關閉西奈加沙之間地下隧道一事，哈馬斯在加沙的實力已減弱。但是以色列軍隊更可能振興哈馬斯而非重傷它，作為對抗可惡的佔領者的主要勢力，哈馬斯會再一次獲得普遍支持，使阿巴斯看上去更像走狗。

Centrist Israelis would settle for periodic missions designed to tamp down Hamas—「mowing the lawn」 they call it. The idea is that the occasional brutal show of force can buy a few more years of normality. Yet doing so is becoming harder. Even if Hamas』s rockets remain inaccurate and are rarely lethal, the latest have reached parts of northern Israel 125 kilometres (80 miles) from Gaza. People in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem will, understandably, refuse to live under constant threat. Israel could of course smite its enemies with ever-bloodier fervour. But to the watching world, its overwhelming use of force, which always leaves many more Palestinians than Israelis dead, has often looked excessive—and its international standing, which moderate Israelis care about, tumbles further.

以色列中間派會安於針對哈馬斯的周期性襲擊（他們稱之為「除草」），認為偶爾的武力展示可以使平靜的常態多維持幾年。然而這樣做正在變得越來越困難。即使哈馬斯的導彈仍然錯過目標、很少致命，最近一次襲擊已經深入了以色列北部地區，距加沙125千米（80英里）。可想而知，特拉維夫和耶路撒冷居民會拒絕生活在持續的威脅之下。當然，以色列可以進行更血腥的襲擊遏制敵人。但對於觀戰的世界各國來說，死於以色列武力之下的巴勒斯坦人遠多於死亡的以色列人，以色列的暴力襲擊常常顯得過度了。溫和的以色列人關心的以色列國際形象也愈加惡化了。

In any case, the status quo on the Palestinian side looks untenable. Mr Abbas is tired and ineffectual. Under him, normality for the West Bank』s Palestinians has come to mean accepting Israeli occupation while Israeli settlers gobble up ever more territory. Without even the prospect of statehood, Palestinians are impatient.

無論如何，巴勒斯坦方面的現狀看似不堪一擊。在疲憊無能的阿巴斯領導下，西岸巴勒斯坦人的常態就意味著接受以色列無止盡的侵佔土地。國家獨立的希望渺茫，巴勒斯坦人民已失去耐心。

For all these reasons, the failure of Mr Netanyahu to make peace a priority is dangerous. He did not make the most of the recent plan put forward by John Kerry, America』s secretary of state. Both he and Mr Abbas recklessly pursued short-term advantage during the talks, leaving their countries vulnerable to those who argue that, with the hopes of peace exhausted, conflict is all that remains. That is wrong. Two states, one for Israelis and one for Palestinians, remains by far the greatest hope for peace. The parameters of an agreement are well-rehearsed. What is lacking is the conviction among reasonable people that such a settlement is needed now. Without that belief, Israel』s normality will always have an air of unreality.

基於這種種理由，內塔尼亞胡不把和平視為當務之急是很危險的。他沒有充分利用美國國務卿克里最近提出的計劃。在和談期間，他和阿巴斯都衝動地追求短期利益，任由國家毀於惡意分子手中。這些人聲稱和平希望渺茫，僅剩的只有衝突。這是錯誤的。建立兩個國家——一個是以色列人的，一個是巴勒斯坦人的——至今仍然是和平的最大希望。協議的框架已經構建好了，缺少的是理性的人們秉持的信念，即現在需要達成協議的信念。缺少這種信念的話，以色列的常態總會透著一絲不真實。

From the print edition: Leaders