演講 | 76歲的科學巨人霍金走了，卻留給我們10分鐘超震撼的TED演講

霍金被譽為繼愛因斯坦之後最傑出的理論物理學家。關於霍金的其人其事，不需要在此贅述，你大概也都通過各種影視作品（最有名的當屬電影《萬物理論》）、霍金的著述（《時間簡史》沒有看過大概也有聽過）、還有時不時見諸報端的新聞中了解過了。

有人評價，霍金很少說話，但他一開口，全世界都在聆聽。今天，讓我們重溫霍金2008年在TED上的一段演講，聆聽他關於宇宙起源、關於生命起源、關於未來的解釋。短短10分鐘，重溫霍金風采，這也許是我們距離未來（過去）最近的一次。

霍金TED演講：求道蒼茫宇宙 來自秦秦英語 00:00 10:11

參考文本

There is nothing bigger or older than the universe.The questions I would like to talk about are:one, where did we come from?How did the universe come into being?Are we alone in the universe?Is there alien life out there?What is the future of the human race?

沒什麼比宇宙更廣大更久遠的了。你們的問題中我想聊一下的是：你我何從？宇宙何來？宇宙中就只有我們？有外星異生物么？人類的未來將會如何？

Up until the 1920s,everyone thought the universe was essentially staticand unchanging in time.Then it was discovered that the universe was expanding.Distant galaxies were moving away from us.This meant they must have been closer together in the past.If we extrapolate back,we find we must have all been on top of each otherabout 15 billion years ago.This was the Big Bang, the beginning of the universe.

上世紀20年代之前，所有人都以為宇宙基本上是處於穩態，流金歲月，持恆不變。之後我們發現原來宇宙正在膨脹中。遼遠星系一直飛離我們，這意味著它們必定曾相靠近。我們若往後推算，就會發現我們必都曾於約150億年前，互相堆疊在一起。正是這 "霹靂大爆炸" ——宇宙之起始。

But was there anything before the Big Bang?If not, what created the universe?Why did the universe emerge from the Big Bang the way it did?We used to think that the theory of the universecould be divided into two parts.First, there were the lawslike Maxwell"s equations and general relativitythat determined the evolution of the universe,given its state over all of space at one time.And second, there was no question of the initial state of the universe.

然而大爆炸前可有什麼嗎？若是沒有，又是什麼創造宇宙呢？宇宙緣何要從大霹靂中冒出呢？過往我們都認為宇宙論可分成兩部分，首先，是定律。像「麥克斯韋方程組」"和 「廣義相對論」以其於同一刻設定整個時空之狀態，而決定了宇宙之演化進程。次之，是對宇宙雛形的疑問。

We have made good progress on the first part,and now have the knowledge of the laws of evolutionin all but the most extreme conditions.But until recently, we have had little ideaabout the initial conditions for the universe.However, this division into laws of evolution and initial conditionsdepends on time and space being separate and distinct.

第一部分我們取得良好進展，除了「至極端境況」"以外。現在已對演化規律於所有境況下之進程有所掌握。可直至最近，我們仍對宇宙初生當時之周圍條件不甚了了。然而，這演化律及初始條件之界分，乃囿於"時 空分明"之概念內。

Under extreme conditions, general relativity and quantum theoryallow time to behave like another dimension of space.This removes the distinction between time and space,and means the laws of evolution can also determine the initial state.The universe can spontaneously create itself out of nothing.

而於極端條件下，廣義相對論及量子論容許「時間」如同「空間」的另一維度般運作。這就將「時.空」之間區別移除了，即是說演化律 亦可決定初始狀態。宇宙可以由無變有自我創生！

Moreover, we can calculate a probability that the universewas created in different states.These predictions are in excellent agreementwith observations by the WMAP satellite of the cosmic microwave background,which is an imprint of the very early universe.We think we have solved the mystery of creation.Maybe we should patent the universeand charge everyone royalties for their existence.

我們甚至可以計算出宇宙在不同情況下誕生的可能性。這些推論與WMAP衛星所觀測到的宇宙微波背景輻射（即大爆炸之痕迹）相當一致。我們相信已勘破了創造奧秘或許我們應將「宇宙」給註冊，然後向每個生存於世的人收「生活費」。

I now turn to the second big question:are we alone, or is there other life in the universe?We believe that life arose spontaneously on the Earth,so it must be possible for life to appear on other suitable planets,of which there seem to be a large number in the galaxy.

現在我轉到第二個大問題去，宇宙中就只有我們，還是另有其它生物？我們相信生命從地球自我衍生，故此生命確有可能出現於其它合適星球——星河中看來可有不少呢。

But we don"t know how life first appeared.We have two pieces of observational evidenceon the probability of life appearing.The first is that we have fossils of algae from 3.5 billion years ago.The Earth was formed 4.6 billion years agoand was probably too hot for about the first half billion years.So life appeared on Earthwithin half a billion years of it being possible,which is short compared to the 10-billion-year lifetimeof a planet of Earth type.This suggests that the probability of life appearing is reasonably high.If it was very low, one would have expected itto take most of the ten billion years available.

但我們仍未攪通生命是如何生成：對於生命誕生的可能契機，我們有兩項觀測得來的佐證。首先我們有來自35億年前的海藻化石。地球於46億年前形成，頭約5億年相信仍太熱了。故此生命於其變得可能後的5億年間方出現，這相對於像地球之類百億年期的星體，只算是一段短時間。這意味著生命出現的概率是頗高的。若是低的話，就可預期要花盡百億年的絕大部分才會出現。

On the other hand, we don"t seem to have been visited by aliens.I am discounting the reports of UFOs.Why would they appear only to cranks and weirdos?If there is a government conspiracy to suppress the reportsand keep for itself the scientific knowledge the aliens bring,it seems to have been a singularly ineffective policy so far.Furthermore, despite an extensive search by the SETI project,we haven"t heard any alien television quiz shows.This probably indicates that there are no alien civilizationsat our stage of developmentwithin a radius of a few hundred light years.Issuing an insurance policyagainst abduction by aliens seems a pretty safe bet.

另一方面，我們似乎從未見有外星人到訪。我不信那些什麼「不明物體的報導」。它們幹嗎要單向那些古古怪怪的人現身呢？若真有一個甚麽政府陰謀要將報導打住，從而將外星人所帶來之科學識據為己有，那可真像個既離奇，亦從未見效的舉措。再說，即便SETI計劃已進行廣泛探索，我們還沒有收聽到任何外太空電視答問節目。這可能昭示在我們現階段文明發展之方圓數百光年範圍之內，並沒有其它外星異文化。賣保險給那些怕被外星人綁架的人，看來是個不錯的選擇。

This brings me to the last of the big questions:the future of the human race.If we are the only intelligent beings in the galaxy,we should make sure we survive and continue.But we are entering an increasingly dangerous period of our history.Our population and our use of the finite resources of planet Earthare growing exponentially,along with our technical ability to change the environment for good or ill.But our genetic codestill carries the selfish and aggressive instinctsthat were of survival advantage in the past.It will be difficult enough to avoid disasterin the next hundred years,let alone the next thousand or million.

這送我到了最後一個大問題：人類的前途。若我們是星河裡唯一智能生物，就必須確保自己能存活並延續下去。但我們正邁入歷史中一個愈發危險的時段。我們的人囗和對地球有限資源的耗用，正以幾何級數增長，相隨的是我們將環境或弄好或弄垮的技術才能，至於我們的基因指令則仍帶著那自私和好鬥的本質，這或有利於我們過往求存，卻又讓我們於往後數百年內人禍難逃。更別說未來千百萬年了。

Our only chance of long-term survivalis not to remain inward-looking on planet Earth,but to spread out into space.The answers to these big questionsshow that we have made remarkable progress in the last hundred years.But if we want to continue beyond the next hundred years,our future is in space.That is why I am in favor of manned —or should I say, personned — space flight.

我們長活下去的唯一機會，不是一直呆著在地球而是衝出太空去。這些大問題之解答顯示我們於過去數百年取得可觀進展。可若要超越未來數百年，們的前途在於太空。正因此，我較傾向於 "人" 控——( man 於英語中可單指"人「」或「男人」)或許我應說，由人駕駛之太空旅航。

All of my life I have sought to understand the universeand find answers to these questions.I have been very luckythat my disability has not been a serious handicap.Indeed, it has probably given me more time than most peopleto pursue the quest for knowledge.The ultimate goal is a complete theory of the universe,and we are making good progress.Thank you for listening.

我一生都在探究想要了解宇宙並找出這些問題之答案。我一直都非常幸運，我的殘疾並沒造成嚴重障礙；說真的，這反倒讓我比大部分人獲得更多時間以從事知識之追求。終極目標是一套完備的宇宙論，而我們已有良好進展。感謝您們的聆聽。

Chris Anderson: Professor, if you had to guess either way,do you now believe that it is more likely than notthat we are alone in the Milky Way,as a civilization of our level of intelligence or higher?This answer took seven minutes, and really gave me an insightinto the incredible act of generosity this whole talk was for TED.

安德森：教授，若您必須二選其一作猜測，此刻您是較相信還是較不相信我們是天河中唯一現水平或更高水平之智能文化？準備這答案已花了7分多鐘，真讓我深切體會到這整個演講為TED所付出之，讓人難以置信之慷慨。

Stephen Hawking: I think it quite likely that we are the only civilizationwithin several hundred light years;otherwise we would have heard radio waves.The alternative is that civilizations don"t last very long,but destroy themselves.

霍金：我想我們應該是數百光年範圍內之獨一文明；否則我們應已收聽到電波。另一種可能是，該等文明都維持不久，就自我毀滅掉。

CA: Professor Hawking, thank you for that answer.We will take it as a salutary warning, I think,for the rest of our conference this week.Professor, we really thank you for the extraordinary effort you madeto share your questions with us today.Thank you very much indeed.

安德森： 霍金教授，謝謝您的解答。我想，我們會將之作為這一周餘下會談之座右銘。教授，我們衷心感謝您今天為與我們分享您的問題所作出之卓越貢獻。真的非常感謝您。

(Applause)

(掌聲)