5個問題看懂俄羅斯干預美國大選的來龍去脈

Pool photo by Sergei Karpukhin俄羅斯總統普京（右）受到了特朗普的高度讚譽。後者多次承諾要使美國與俄羅斯重新結盟。The swirl of revelations and allegations about Russian involvement in the American presidential election, which has been building since the summer, can be difficult to keep straight.關於俄羅斯介入美國總統大選一事，相關披露與指控從今年夏天便開始愈演愈烈，讓人很難分辨清楚。For example, though analysts often say that Russia 「hacked the election,」 this shorthand refers to something much subtler than altering the vote itself — just one of many points of growing confusion. Here is a guide to what is known and is not, and to separating fact from misconception.比如，雖然分析師經常說俄羅斯「對選舉採取黑客行動」，但這種簡略的表達指的是某種比改變選票本身微妙得多的東西――這只是日益引發困惑的許多方面之一。下面是一個指南，告訴你什麼是已知的東西，什麼不是；還有什麼是事實，什麼是錯誤的理解。What was Russia』s role in the election?俄羅斯在選舉中扮演了什麼角色？· Russian security agencies infiltrated Democratic National Committee email servers last year and again this spring, according to American intelligence assessments and several independent security firms. The Russians also hacked a private email account belonging to John D. Podesta, the chairman of Hillary Clinton』s presidential campaign.· 根據美國情報機構的評估和幾家獨立安全公司的說法，俄羅斯安全機構滲透入民主黨全國委員會的電子郵件伺服器之中。俄羅斯人還入侵了希拉里·柯林頓(Hillary Clinton)的競選團隊主席約翰·D·波德斯塔(John D. Podesta)的私人電子郵件帳戶。· This summer, intermediaries linked to the Russian governmentpassedthe emails to WikiLeaks and to an anonymous WordPress blog called Guccifer 2.0. Those outlets released the emails publicly, generating weeks of unfavorable coverage of Mrs. Clinton』s campaign.· 今年夏天，與俄羅斯政府有關的中間人將這些電子郵件傳遞給維基解密(WikiLeaks)和一個名為Guccifer 2.0的匿名WordPress博客。這幾個渠道公開了相關電子郵件，導致了持續幾個星期對柯林頓競選活動不利的報道。· Initially, many analysts believed that Russia』s goal was to sow confusion and undermine Americans』 faith in their government — a common Russian tactic — rather than to steer the election』s outcome.· 最初，許多分析人士認為，俄羅斯的目標是製造混亂，破壞美國人對政府的信心――這是一個俄羅斯常用的策略――而不是操縱選舉的結果。· However, after the election, the Central Intelligence Agencyconcludedthat Russia had released the emails with the primary goal of bolstering Donald J. Trump』s presidential campaign.· 然而，在選舉之後，中央情報局得出結論，俄羅斯公布這些電子郵件，主要目標是支持唐納德·J·特朗普(Donald J. Trump)的總統競選。· No information has emerged suggesting that the C.I.A. believes that Russia』s involvement decided the election』s outcome.· 沒有任何消息表明中情局確信俄羅斯的介入決定了選舉結果。Was the election itself hacked?選舉本身是否遭到黑客攻擊？· There is no evidence that hackers, from Russia or elsewhere, tampered with the vote tallies.· 沒有證據表明來自俄羅斯或其他地方的黑客篡改了票數。· Mr. Trump has said there was widespread voter fraud that favored Mrs. Clinton, and some liberal commentators have suggested that the election was hacked. Independent analysts say there is overwhelming evidence against both claims.· 特朗普說，有大量支持柯林頓的假選票存在，一些自由派評論人士聲稱選舉遭到黑客攻擊。獨立分析人士說，存在不容辯駁的證據，足以反駁這兩個觀點。· A widely circulated New York magazinearticlereported that two voting experts had urged Democrats to push for a recount, on fears that hackers had manipulated the vote. But one of those experts disputed that article, writing in apost on Mediumthat he had urged a recount but had doubted hacking.· 一篇廣泛傳播的《紐約》雜誌文章表示，有兩個投票專家擔心黑客操縱了投票，因而敦促民主黨人推動重新點票。但是其中一個專家對這篇文章提出異議，他在Medium網站撰文寫道，他曾敦促重新計票，但是對黑客入侵表示懷疑。· TheWhite Houseand election officials have said the vote shows no sign of tampering and accurately reflects popular will.· 白宮方面和選舉官員說，選票沒有遭到篡改的跡象，並且準確反映了民意。· A recount effort led by the Green Party candidate, Jill Stein, is unrelated to the revelations that Russia hacked the Democratic National Committee and Mr. Podesta』s emails.· 由綠黨候選人吉爾·斯坦(Jill Stein)領導的重新計票工作與俄羅斯黑客入侵民主黨全國委員會及波德斯塔的電子郵件遭披露無關。Did Russia swing the election for Mr. Trump?俄羅斯是否推動了特朗普當選？· It is impossible to say for sure. Because the email leaks unfolded over weeks, and concurrently with many other election dramas, polls cannot easily isolate the impact of the leaks.· 這一點是不可能確定的。因為電子郵件泄露事件持續了幾個星期的時間，同時期內，選舉中還發生了其他許多戲劇性事件，民意調查不能輕易將郵件泄漏的影響孤立出來。· Mr. Trump won three crucial Midwestern states by very small margins. So even if the leaks swung only a small percentage of votes, that could have been enough to change the election outcome.· 特朗普以非常小的優勢在中西部三個關鍵州取勝。因此，即使泄漏事件隻影響了一小部分選民，也足以改變選舉結果。· But this same logic applies to dozens of factors, including the F.B.I.』s late-stage investigationsrelatedto Mrs. Clinton』s private email server. Political scientists havedemonstratedthat even changes in weather and the performance of sports teams can alter how people vote.· 但同樣的邏輯也可適用於其他幾十個因素，包括聯邦調查局在選舉後期對柯林頓的私人電子郵件伺服器所進行的相關調查。政治學家已經證明，就連天氣的變化和球隊的表現也能改變人們的投票。· All available evidence suggests that voters freely selected Mr. Trump on Election Day in sufficient numbers for him to win the presidency under the Electoral College system. But that does not diminish the seriousness of Russia』s intervention in the election, which appears to beunprecedented.· 所有現存證據表明，在選舉日自願為特朗普投票的選民足以令他在選舉團制度下贏得總統職位。但這並不會削弱俄羅斯干預選舉的嚴重性，這樣的干預似乎是沒有先例的。· The C.I.A.』s assessment is not public, but is thought to turn on another alleged hack. Russia also hacked data from the Republican National Committee but declined to release whatever it found, intelligence agencies told Congress. That has given credence to theories that Moscow actively favored the party』s candidate.· 中情局的評估是不公開的，但被認為指出了另一場據稱的黑客攻擊。情報機構告訴國會，俄羅斯也同樣侵入了共和黨全國委員會的數據，但沒有透露所發現的東西。這使得莫斯科積極支持該黨候選人的假設更加可信。· Mr. Trump has repeatedly promised to realign the United States with Russia and has praised its president, Vladimir V. Putin. Many in Moscow view Mrs. Clinton as hostile to Russia.· 特朗普一再承諾美俄重新結盟，並稱讚俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾·V·普京(Vladimir V. Putin)。在莫斯科，許多人認為柯林頓對俄羅斯抱有敵意。· The evidence in any assessment of Russian government motives is circumstantial, and not all American intelligence agencies share the C.I.A.』s view.· 評估俄羅斯政府動機的證據都是間接的，並不是所有美國情報機構都同意中情局的觀點。· The timing suggests that, if Moscow decided to help Mr. Trump, it did so only after hacking the servers of both parties』 national committees. Both were infiltrated well before Mr. Trump』s rise.· 莫斯科選擇的時機表明，如果它的確決定幫助特朗普， 也是在黑客入侵兩黨全國委員會的伺服器之後才這樣做。在特朗普崛起之前，兩黨的伺服器就都遭到了滲透。· Mr. Trump, at a July news conference,publicly urgedRussia to hack Mrs. Clinton』s emails. But this could not have precipitated or encouraged the Russian hacks — they had taken place months earlier.· 特朗普在7月的新聞發布會上公開鼓勵俄羅斯對柯林頓的電子郵件進行黑客攻擊。但這不可能引發或鼓勵俄羅斯的黑客攻擊――他們幾個月前就這麼做了。Did Russia spread pro-Trump fake news?俄羅斯是否傳播了支持特朗普的假新聞？· Russian state media outlets have favored Mr. Trump and opposed Mrs. Clinton, but their reach in the United States is limited. (Their influence in Europe is much stronger.)· 俄羅斯國家媒體渠道支持特朗普，反對柯林頓，但他們對美國的影響很有限。（他們在歐洲的影響力則強得多）。· A firm called PropOrNot claimed that the Russian government had flooded American social media with fake election news. But several independent analystschallengedthe report』s methodology, which classified mainstream sites as Russian propaganda and did not demonstrate a link to Moscow.· 一家名為PropOrNot的公司聲稱，俄羅斯政府用關於選舉的假新聞淹沒了美國社交媒體。但是幾個獨立分析師質疑了該公司報告的方法，它將主流網站歸類為俄羅斯的政治宣傳，但卻沒有證明它們與莫斯科的聯繫。· Fake news is a growing problem, at times driven by companies in Eastern Europe that write and spread the articles. But those companies appear to be motivated by profit-seeking rather than any political agenda.· 假新聞是一個日益嚴重的問題，它們有時由東歐的公司驅動，這些公司會撰寫和傳播一些文章。但是，它們的動機似乎是追求利潤，並沒有任何政治議程。What was Russia』s goal in meddling?俄羅斯干預的目標是什麼？· There are two schools of thought: first, that Russia sought to weaken the United States by stirring up uncertainty and miring Mrs. Clinton, who seemed all but certain to win, in scandal; and second, that Russia sought specifically to elevate Mr. Trump to the presidency.· 現在有兩派觀點：第一派觀點認為，俄羅斯試圖通過製造不確定性，並用醜聞來給看似穩操勝券的柯林頓帶來麻煩，以此削弱美國；第二派觀點認為，俄羅斯明確謀求由特朗普擔任總統。· Those theories are not mutually exclusive. For instance, Moscow may have started with the first goal and then added the second as a hoped-for bonus.· 這些理論並非互不相容。比如，莫斯科可能在開展第一個目標之後，又把第二個目標作為希望發生的額外驚喜。· Russia is waging similar campaigns across Europe, at times through cyberattacks and selective leaks, with the apparent goal of undermining Western unity.· 俄羅斯目前正在整個歐洲發起類似的行動，有時是通過網路攻擊和選擇性泄漏信息，其目標看似是破壞西方世界的團結。· The Kremlinsees itselfas under siege by a hostile West that it perceives as bent on Russia』s destruction. Russian military leaders advocate shadowy 「new generation warfare」 — through propaganda and cyberattacks, for example — to destabilize adversaries from within.· 克里姆林宮認為自己遭到一個充滿敵意的西方的圍困，認為西方的目的是毀掉俄羅斯。俄羅斯軍事領導人宣揚陰暗莫測的「新一代戰爭」――例如通過政治宣傳和網路攻擊――從內部去破壞對手的穩定。· Not all misconceptions are directed by Moscow, however. Social media rumors that overstate Russia』s involvement in the United States election risk playing into Moscow』s goal of undermining Americans』 faith in thelegitimacy and integrityof their democracy.· 然而，並非所有的錯誤觀念都是由莫斯科帶來的。誇大俄羅斯對美國選舉干預的網路謠言也有正中莫斯科下懷的危險，同樣會破壞美國人對其民主制度合法性與完善性的信念。
推薦閱讀：