波動率--譯文——eujene——東方財富網博客

波動率--譯文(2010-11-21 15:51:52)分類：股票 "TheTicker and Investment Digest"(laterbecame the Wall Street Journal)《行情與投資文摘》（後來更名為《華爾街日報》December of 19091909年12月WilliamD. Gann威廉姆 D 江恩 An Operator Whose Science and Ability PlaceHim in the Front Rank 一位憑自己的科學與能力躋身前列的操作者His Remarkable Predictions and Trading Records他卓越的預測與交易記錄Sometime ago the attention of this magazine was attractedby certain long pull Stock Market predictions which were being made by WilliamD. Gann. In a large number of cases Mr. Gann gave us, in advance, the exactpoints at which certain stocks and commodities would sell, together with pricesclose to the then prevailing figures which would not be touched. 某些日子以前，這份雜誌的注意力，被一位叫威廉姆 D 江恩的人寫的充滿魅力的股市預測所吸引了。 江恩先生在相當多的案例里，提前給出了某中股票或期貨應該賣出的精確點位，和以及在目前點位上方不可能被觸及到的價格。For instance, when the New York Central was 131 hepredicted that it would sell at 145 before 129. So repeatedly did his figuresprove to be accurate, and so different did his work appear from that of anyexpert whose methods we had examined, that we set about to investigate Mr. Gannand his way of figuring out these predictions, as well as the particular usewhich he was making of them in the market. 比如說，當紐約中心在131元的時候，他預測說股票先漲到145，然後跌到129。他說的數字，後來被反覆證實確實精確如斯，而其方法又與所有已成名的專家看起來這麼不同，所以我們著手去調查江恩先生和他的預測方法，以及他是怎麼在市場中具體運用的。The results of this investigation are remarkable in manyways. 這次的調查，在很多方面顯得非比尋常。It appears to be a fact Mr. W, D. Gann has developed anentirely new idea as to the principles governing stock market movements. Hebases his operations upon certain natural laws which, though existing since theworld began, have _disibledevent=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt">看起來比較明確的是，江恩先生在有關於決定股市運行的原則方面，發展了一整套思想。支配他的操作是建立在特定的自然規則上的，這些規則自世界開始時就存在，只是在近些年來受人類意願的支配並已經被列入所謂現代發現的名單里。我們詢問了江恩先生有關他工作的概要，並對他的一些不同尋常的證明和因此發展來的結論提供保證。We submit this in full recognition of the fact that inWall Street a man with a new idea, an idea which violates the traditions andencourages a scientific view of the Proposition, is not usually welcomed by themajority, for the reason that he stimulates thought and research. Theseactivities the said majority abhors. 我們在發表這篇文章時，充分了解：在華爾街如果一個人有新的想法，並且這個想法違犯現有的傳統，並鼓勵在定理方面有科學的觀點的時候，這個人通常是不被主流所歡迎的，因為他在刺激著新想法和新研究。這些活動上述的主流可是很厭惡的。W. D. Gann"s description of his experience and methods isgiven herewith. It should be read with recognition of the established fact thatMr. Gann"s predictions have proved correct in a large majority of instances. 接下來就是江恩先生有關經歷和方法的描述。提示，在閱讀之前，要非常明確一個確定的事實是：江恩先生的預測在非常多的場合證明是正確的。"For the past ten years I have devoted my entiretime and attention to the speculative markets. Like many others, I lostthousands of dollars and experienced the usual ups and downs incidental to thenovice who enters the market without preparatory knowledge of thesubject." 在過去的10年里，我把我全部的時間和精力獻給了投機市場。和很多其他人一樣，我損失了成千上萬的金錢，經歷了一個新手在沒有作好知識準備前就入市操作的所有的起起伏伏。"I soon began to realize that all successful men,whether Lawyers, Doctors or Scientists, devoted years of time to the study andinvestigation of their particular pursuit or profession before attempting tomake any money out of it."我很快認識到所有成功的人，不論是律師、醫生還是科學家，在試圖掙到錢之前，都在他們的特殊領域花費了好多年的時間來研究和調查。"Being in the Brokerage business myself and handlinglarge accounts, I had opportunities seldom afforded the ordinary man forstudying the cause of success and failure in the speculations of others. Ifound that over ninety percent of the traders who go into the market withoutknowledge or study usually lose in the end." 因為我自己親自擔任經紀，操作大額的數目，所以我有一般人沒有的機會，去研究在別人投機市場上的成功和失敗的原由。我發現，超過90%的投資者，如果沒有裝備好知識就入市，最後都以失敗告終。"I soon began to note the periodical recurrence of the rise and fall in stocks and commodities. This led me to conclude thatnatural law was the basis of market movements. I then decided to devote tenyears of my life to the study of natural law as applicable to the speculativemarkets and to devote my best energies toward making speculation a profitableprofession. After exhaustive researches and investigations of the knownsciences, I discovered that the law of vibration enabled me to accurately determine the exact points at which stocks orcommodities should rise and fall within a given time." 很快，我開始注意到股票和期貨裡面的漲跌在周期性地發生。這引導我得出結論：自然規律是市場運行的基礎。我接著決定花10年的時間去研究貼合投機市場自然規律，並把我最好的經歷投入到把投機變成一項獲利豐厚的事業。在對已知的科學進行竭盡全力的調查研究後，我發現波動法則能讓我確定每支股票和期貨在一個約定時間內要升或跌的精確點位。The working out of this law determines the causeand predicts the effect long before the street is aware of either. Most speculators can testify to the fact that it is looking at the effect and ignoring the cause that has produced their losses. "It is impossible here to give an adequate idea ofthe law of vibrations as I apply it to the markets. However, the layman may beable to grasp some of the principles when I state that the law of vibration is the fundamental law upon whichwireless telegraphy, wireless telephone and phonographs are based. Without theexistence of this law the above inventions would have been impossible." 在這個法則的研究確定了成因，並在華爾街意識到之前的很久就預測了結果。大多數的投機者都可以證明，只看結果不顧成因，才導致了他們的虧損。「現在沒法對我在市場上使用的波動法則作出一個適當的解釋。但外行人也可以在我解釋波動法則是無線電報，無線電話和留聲機的基本原理的時候，能把握一些規則。如果沒有這個法則，上面的發明根本不可能出現。"In order to test the efficiency of my idea I havenot _disibledevent=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt">為了驗證我的想法是否有效，我不僅花費了多年的時間在一般方法上辛苦工作，而且還在紐約大圖書館和倫敦的大英博物館流連了9個月，回顧了前推到1820年以來的股票交易記錄。我偶然的機會檢驗了JAY GOULD，DANIEL DREW，COMMODORE VANDERBILT以及從那時到現在之間所有其他重要操盤手的操作方法。我也檢驗了從E H HARRIMAN時代前和後的聯合太平洋的每張報價單。HARRIMAN先生是裡面最精妙的。數據顯示，不論是有意還是無意，HARRIMAN先生是嚴格按照自然法則來進行操作的。"In going over the history of markets and the greatmass of related statistics, it soon becomes apparent that certain laws govern the changes and variationsin the value of stocks, and that there exists a periodic or cyclic law which is at the back of all these movements. Observation has shown that there are regular periods of intense activity _disibledevent=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt">Mr. Henry Hall in his recent book devoted much space to"Cycles of Prosperity and Depression," which he found recurring atregular intervals of time. The law(law of vibration) which I have applied will not _disibledevent=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt">在回顧了市場的歷史以及大量相關數據的過程，很快能清晰地看到，某些法則確實在決定著股票價值的調整和變化，也確實能看到存在著一個周期性的或循環法則在支持著這些運動。觀察顯示，通常密集交易的後面，伴隨著不活躍時期。HENRY HALL 在他最近的新書里用了大量的篇幅來描述給「繁榮與蕭條的循環」，他發現在固定的時間間隔上反覆交替。而我此處要使用的法則（波動法則）不僅是長期的循環或擺動，而且在日交易甚至小時的股票變化中同樣適用。通過了解每支具體股票的精確波動，我能夠確定在哪個點位得到支撐，在哪個點位將遇到強大阻力。"Those in close touch with the market have noticedthe phenomena of ebb and flow, or rise and fall, in the value of stocks. At certain times a stock will become intensely active, large transaction eing made in it; at other times this same stock will become practicallystationary or inactive with a very small volume of sales. I have found that the law of vibration governs and controls these conditions(cause). I have also found that certain phases of this law govern the rise in a stock and an entirely different rule operates _disibledevent=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt">那些密切關注市場的人會注意到潮起潮落的現象，或股票價格的上漲或下跌。在有些時候，一支股票會變得十分活躍，大量交易成交在這個時期；而在其他時候，同樣的一支股票卻變的相當穩定而不活躍，只有很小的買賣量。我發現是波動法則在主導控制著這些情況（成因）。我還發現這個法則的某些特定時期主導著這支股票上升，而一個完全不同的法則影響著股票的下跌。"While Union Pacific and other railroad stocks whichmade their high prices in August were declining, United States Steel Common wassteadily advancing. The law of vibration was at work, sending a particularstock _disibledevent=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt">當聯合太平洋公司和其他在8月創出新高的鐵路股的股票下跌時，美國鋼鐵通用公司的股票正穩步上揚。波動法則發揮作用了，即在其他股票趨勢向下時，某隻股票走出獨立上升行情。"I have found that in the stock itself exists itsharmonic or inharmonious relationship to the driving power or force behind it.The secret of all its activity is therefore apparent. By my method I can determine the vibration of each stock and also, by taking certain time values into consideration, I can, in themajority of cases, tell exactly what the stock will do under given conditions." 我發現了股票內部存在著和它的主導力量和諧或不和諧的關係。通過我的方法我可以確定每支股票的波動，同樣，把某些時間因素考慮在內的話，我可以，在大多數情況下，精確地說出這些股票在特定情況下如何表現。"The power to determine the trend ofthe market is due to my knowledge of the characteristics of each individualstock and a certain grouping of different stocks under their proper rates of vibration. Stocks are like electrons, atoms andmolecules, which hold persistently to their own individuality in response to the fundamental law of vibration. Scienceteaches that "an original impulse of any kind finally resolves itself into a periodic orrhythmical motion; also, just as the pendulum returnsagain in its swing, just as the moon returns in its orbit, just as theadvancing year over brings the rose of spring, so do the properties of theelements periodically recur as the weight of the atoms rises." "From my extensiveinvestigations, studies and applied tests, I find that not _disibledevent=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt">這個確定市場趨勢的能力，源自於我對每支特定股票特點的了解，和對在特定的波動率下的一組不同股票的認識。股票象電子，原子和分子，它們按照對基本波動法則的響應，保持第著他們獨立的個性。科學說明，第一波的運動，都會變成一個周期性的韻律性的運動，就象鍾垂在周而復始的擺動，就象月亮在它的軌道上反覆，就象來年帶來春天的玫瑰，就象當原則重量增加時元素性質周期行的再現。通過我大量的調查、研究和試驗，我發現不僅各種各樣的股票在波動，而且控制它們的主導力量，也是在波動的狀態中。These vibratory forces can _disibledevent=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt">這些波動的力量，只能通過它們推動股票的運動和股票的價格，得以知曉。既然市場的運動和大的擺動都是周期性的，它們的運動當然是和周期法則相一致。( law of vibration is cause and periodic law is effect)波動法則是因，周期法則是果。"Science has laid down the principle that theproperties of an element are a periodic function of its atomic weight. Afamous scientist has stated that "we are brought to the conviction thatdiversity in phenomenal nature in its different kingdoms is most intimatelyassociated with numerical relationship. The numbers are not intermixedaccidentally but are subject to regular periodicity. The changes anddevelopments are seen to be in many cases as somewhat odd." 科學已經制定法則：每種因素的性質，是它原子重量的周期性的函數。一個著名的科學家說過，我們深信，在不同領域王國的物種的多樣性，其實都有著緊密的數理聯繫。這些數字不是隨機地混雜，而是受特定周期性的影響。這種（物種間的）變化和進化非常常見，甚至有些奇特。Thus, I affirm every class of phenomena, whether in nature or _disibledevent=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt">因此，我確信物種的不同綱目，不論是自然界的，還是股票市場，都一定受到因果關係與和諧關係的普適規則的主導。凡果必有因。「如我我們希望避免投機的失敗，我們必須探討成因。萬物之存在都建立在比例與完美關係上。自然界沒有偶然，因為最高秩序的數學法則蘊藏在萬事萬物的基礎之中。"Vibration is fundamental: nothing is exempt from this law. It is universal, therefore applicable to every class of phenomena _disibledevent=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt">波動是基礎： 沒有一樣東西是例外。它是普遍適用的，因此這個星球上的物種的各個綱目全部適用。Through the law of vibration every stock in the market moves in its own distinctive sphere of activities, as to intensity, volume and direction; all the essential qualities of its evolution are characterized in its own rate of vibration.Stocks, like atoms, are really centres of energy; therefore, they arecontrolled mathematically. Stocks create their own field of action and power: power to attract and repel, whichprinciple explains why certain stocks at times lead the market and "turn dead" at other times. Thus, to speculate scientifically it isabsolutely necessary to follow natural law. 按照波動法則，股票市場上的每支股票都有它自己鮮明的活動範圍，比如： 力度、成交量和方向等；它的演變的基本性質是由它自己的波動率來表明的。股票，和原子一樣，也是整個能量的核心，因此，它們受數學控制。股票產生它們自己的活動和力量範圍：吸引和排斥的力量。這個法則解釋了為什麼某些股票有時引領整個股市，而在其他時候則歸於死寂。因此，要想科學投機，絕對有必要遵循自然法則。"After years of patient study I have proven to myentire satisfaction, as well as demonstrated to others, that vibration (law) explains every possible phase and condition of the market." In order to substantiate Mr. W. D. Gann"s claims as towhat he has been able to do under his method, we called upon Mr. William E.Gilley, an Inspector of Imports, 16 Beaver Street, New York. Mr. Gilley iswell known in the downtown district. He himself has studied stock marketmovements for twenty-five years, during which time he has examined every pieceof market literature that has been issued & procurable in Wall Street. Itwas he who encouraged Mr. Gann to study the scientific and mathematicalpossibilities of the subject. When asked what had been the most impressive ofMr. Gann"s work and predictions, he replied as follows : 經過數年耐心研究，我已完全滿意地自我證明和對外證明，波動（法則）可以解釋市場的所有可能出現的階段和情況。為了證實江恩先生的聲明，以及他的方法如何使用，我們邀請了紐約市BEAVER街16號進口檢查員的WILLIAM E GILLEY先生，他在商業區里廣為人知。他自己也研究股票波動大約有25年了，在此期間他檢驗了在華爾街發行的所有能找到股票市場刊物。正是他鼓勵江恩先生開始從事這個學科的科學和數學研究。當問到對江恩先生的工作和預測印象最深的是什麼時，他做了如下回答："It is very difficult for me to remember all thepredictions and operations of W. D. Gann which may be classed as phenomenal,but the following are a few. "In 1908 when the Union Pacific was 168-1/8,he told me it would not touch 169 before it had a good break. We sold it shortall the way down to 152-5/8, covering _disibledevent=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt">我很難記住江恩作的所有的預測和具體操作，稱之為驚人好象也不過分了，下面的例子有好多： 1908年聯合太平洋的股價是168又1/8，他告訴我說它不可能碰到169，除非是先有個向下突破； 然後我們一路賣空到152又5/8，在低點處平倉，然後在反彈中又進場買多，在一個18點的市場波動中，很穩當地賺到了23個點的贏利。"He came to me when United States Steel was sellingaround 50, and said, "This steel will run up to 58 but it will not sell at59. From there it should break 16 points." We sold it short around 58 witha stop at 59. The highest it went was 58. From there it declined to 41-17points." 在美國鋼鐵賣價在50附近的時候，他過來跟我說，「鋼鐵要漲到58，但不會到59。然後要下跌16點。「我們在58元處賣空，止損定在59元。實際最高點位在58，然後下降了17點到41元。"At another time, wheat was selling at about 89￠.Gann predicted that the May option would sell at $1.35. We bought it and madelarge profits _disibledevent=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt">另有一次，小麥在89分附近。江恩預測說5月和約會到1。35元。我們買入，在上升過程中大獲其利。確實到達了1。35元。"When Union Pacific was 172, he said it would go to184-7/8 but not an eighth higher until it had a good break. It went to 184-7/8and came back from there eight or nine times. We sold it short repeatedly, witha stop at 185, and were never caught. It eventually came back to 17." 當聯合太平洋到172的時候，江恩說它會到184又7/8，但在一個調整前，不會再升哪怕一個1/8了。它到了184又7/8以後下來了8、9次。我們反覆賣空，止損定在185元，從沒用著過。它最終回到了17（？應該是170？懷疑排版錯誤少了一位數）"Mr. Gann"s calculations are based _disibledevent=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt">江恩的計算是建立在自然法則基礎之上的。我密切跟蹤江恩的工作有幾年之久。我知道和對主導股票市場運動的基本法則掌握很深，我覺得，在當前時代沒有人能夠複製他的理念和方法。"Early this year, he figured that the top of theadvance would fall _disibledevent=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt">今年早些時候，他指出，目前正在上升的波浪將在8月的某一天到達頂部，那時候道瓊斯指數要到達的點位也計算出來了。市場果然在那天到達最高點，點位差不超過千分之四。"You and W D Gann must have cleaned up considerablemoney _disibledevent=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt">「那你和江恩先生一定在這些操作里大賺了一筆」"Yes, we have made a great deal of money. Gann hastaken half-million dollars out of the market in the past few years. I _disibledevent=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt">是的。是賺了不少錢。江恩在過去的這些年裡從股市裡賺了有50萬。有一次我看見他帶著130元入市，不到1個月滾動到超過12000。江恩比我見過的其他任何人聚財的速度都要快。"One of the most astonishing calculations made byMr. Gann was during last summer [1909] when he predicted that September Wheatwould sell at $1.20. This meant that it must touch that figure before the endof the month of September. At twelve o"clock, Chicago time, _disibledevent=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt">江恩的最令人匪夷所思的計算髮生在去年夏天（1909）。當時他預測說9月小麥會達到1。2元。這意味著它必須在9月的收盤前達到那個數字。在12點鐘，芝加哥時間，9月30日（最後一個交易日）合約還是低於1。08元，看起來他的預測是不大有可能達成了。江恩說，如果在收盤時不能達到1。2元，說明我在整體計算的方法上一定有地方出錯了。我不管現在是什麼價格，它一定會到達（1。2元）的。接下來的事大家都知道了，9月小麥合約驚動全國地到達了1。2元，在最後的一小時交易中正好落在那個價格上收盤。So much for what W D Gann has said and done as evidencedby himself & others. Now as to what demonstrations have taken place beforeour representative :江恩由他自己證明的和別人證明的他說過的、做過的例子太多了。現在當著我們的代表的面看又有了什麼證明。During the month of October, 1909, in twenty-five marketdays, W D Gann made, in the presence of our representative, two hundred andeighty-six transactions in various stocks, _disibledevent=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt">在1909年10月，25個交易日里，江恩，在我們代表在場的情況下，在不同股票上共實施了286次操作，有的做長，有的做短。264次贏利，22次虧損。 The capital with which he operated was doubled ten times,so that at the end of the month he had _disibledevent=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt">他用來操盤的資金增加了10倍，在月末的時候的贏利是1000%。In our presence Mr. William D. Gann sold Steel commonshort at 94-7/8, saying that it would not go to 95. It did not.在我們在場的情況下，江恩在94又7/8元賣出通用鋼鐵，說它不會到達95元。確實如此。On a drive which occurred during the week ending October29, Mr. Gann bought U.S. Steel common stock at 86-1/4, saying that it would notgo to 86. The lowest it sold was 86-1/3. 在10月29日結束的那個周里發生的一次上升浪中，江恩先生在86又1/4元買入美國通用鋼鐵的股票，說它不會回扯到86元。最低的售價是86又1/3。We have seen gann give in _disibledevent=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt">我們看到江恩在一天的時間裡，在同一隻股票上進行了16次的成功操作。8次事後證明是賣在頂部或買在底部，8次是轉折點。以上陳述我們完全可以證實。Such performances as these, coupled with the foregoing,are probably unparalleled in the history of the Street. 這樣的表現，和前面說過的情況，很可能在華爾街歷史上，無出其右。James R. Koene has said, "The man who is right sixtimes out of ten will make a fortune." Gann is a trader who, without anyattempt to make a showing, for he did not know the results were to bepublished, established a record of over ninety-two percent profitable trades. JAMES R KOENE說過：「10次有6次做對了的會致富」。江恩的勝率達到了92%的創記錄水平，而且是在沒有任何展示的意圖上的，因為他當時並不知道這些操作結果要刊登出來。Mr. W. D. Gann has refused to disclose his method at anyprice, but to those scientifically inclined he has unquestionably added to thestock of Wall Street knowledge and pointed out infinite possibilities. 江恩先生拒絕了透露他的方法，出多少錢也不說。但對那些有志於科學研究的人來說，他毫無疑問在華爾街股票知識基礎上更加精進，並且指出了無限的可能性。We have requested Mr. Gann to figure out for the readersof the Ticker a few of the most striking indications which appear in hiscalculations. In presenting these we wish it understood that no man, in or outof Wall Street, is infallible.我們曾要求過江恩先生給《日交易者》的讀者們指出在他的計算方法里最要緊的幾條指引。我們希望在說這個的時候大家都能明白：不論是在華爾街內外，沒有人能一貫正確。William D Gann"s figures at present indicate that thetrend of the stock market should, barring the usual rallies, be toward thelower prices until March or April 1910. 威廉姆江恩的當前數字表明，目前股市的趨勢會破壞掉通常的多頭聚集，直到1910年3月或4月到達更低的點位。He calculates that May Wheat, which is now selling at$1.02, should not sell below 99￠, and should sell at $1.45 next spring. 他計算說5月小麥，現在是1。02元，將跌到99分以下，在明年春天會賣到1。45元On Cotton, which is now at about 15￠ level, he estimatesthat after a good reaction from these prices the commodity should reach 18￠ inthe spring of 1910. He looks for a corner in the March or May option. 在銅上，現在是在15美分價格上，江恩估計在有一波象樣的表現後會達到18美分，時間是1910年的春天。他認為3月或5月到期期貨會有囤積出現。Whether these figures prove correct or not will in no waydetract from the record which W. D. Gann has already established. 不論這些數字將來證明正確與否，都不會減損江恩先生已經創造的記錄。William Delbert Gann was born in Lufkin, Texas, and is thirty-one years of age. He is a giftedmathematician, has an extraordinary memory for figures, and is an expert TapeReader. Take away his science and he would beat the market _disibledevent=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt">威廉姆*德爾伯特*江恩生於TEXAS州的LUFKIN，31歲。他是一個有天分的數學家，對數字有著非同尋常的記憶力，也是的圖表閱讀專家。就算不考慮他的科學方法，只用他直覺的圖表閱讀，他就可以擊敗市場。Endowed as he is with such qualities, we have nohesitation in predicting that, within a comparatively few years, William D.Gann will receive recognition as _disibledevent=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt">因為他天賦異稟，我們毫不猶豫地相信，就在不久的將來，江恩必然會受到華爾街最高領袖的認可。Note: Since the market forecast was made, Coffee hassuffered the expected decline, the extreme break having been 120 points. Thelowest _disibledevent=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt">注意：自從做了市場預測之後，咖啡果如其然發生了下跌，極端跌幅達到120點。3月小麥的最低點到了到了5/8-1。01之間，現在是在1。06-1又1/4之間。Science teaches that "an "original impulse" of any kind finally resolves itself into a periodic or rhythmical motion; also, just as the pendulum returns again in its swing, just as the moon returns in its orbit, just as the advancing year over brings the rose of spring, so do the properties of the elements periodically recur as the weight of the atoms rises."科學說明，第一波的運動，都會變成一個周期性的韻律性的運動，就象鍾垂在周而復始的擺動，就象月亮在它的軌道上反覆，就象來年帶來春天的玫瑰，就象當原則重量增加時元素性質周期行的再現。"I have found that in the stock itself exists its harmonic or inharmonious relationship to the driving power or force behind it. The secret of all its activity is therefore apparent. By my method I can determine ""the vibration of each stock"" and also, by taking certain time values into consideration, I can, in the majority of cases, tell exactly what the stock will do under given conditions."我發現了股票內部存在著和它的主導力量和諧或不和諧的關係。通過我的方法我可以確定每支股票的波動，同樣，把某些時間因素考慮在內的話，我可以，在大多數情況下，精確地說出這些股票在特定情況下如何表現。"The power to determine the trend of the market is due to my knowledge of the characteristics of each individual stock and a certain grouping of different stocks under their 「proper rates of vibration」. Stocks are like electrons, atoms and molecules, which hold persistently to their own individuality in response to "the fundamental law of vibration"這個確定市場趨勢的能力，源自於我對每支特定股票特點的了解，和對在特定的波動率下的一組不同股票的認識。股票象電子，原子和分子，它們按照對基本波動法則的響應，保持第著他們獨立的個性。<br />該文章轉載自<a href="http://blog.eastmoney.com">東方財富網博客</a>：<a href="http://blog.eastmoney.com/eujene/blog_120556963.html">波動率--譯文</a>
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