BBC：中國新任領導人面臨的挑戰

譯文簡介：中國正在選舉新一代領導人，他們上任後將面臨哪些挑戰呢？這篇文章從經濟模式的改變、城鄉之間的不平等發展、環境問題、人口問題以及人們的期待等各方面進行了分析。BBC：中國新任領導人面臨的挑戰China new leaders: challenges ahead中國新任領導人面臨的挑戰By Angus Foster作者：傅安思Economic reforms have transformed China into the world"s second-largest economy. But its 1.3 billion population and continental size mean the problems these new leaders face are still daunting.經濟改革已經將中國變為世界第二經濟大國。然而它的13億人口和國土面積意味著中國新任領導人面臨的問題依然嚴峻。These are the issues set to be top of their agenda.以下將是他們議程上的首要問題。Change the model改變模式China"s economic success has lifted 500 million people out of poverty. Yet the economic model that worked so well during the early years of China"s development now needs to change.中國的經濟成就已經使5億人擺脫了貧困。然而中國發展早期運行良好的經濟模式需要改變。Chinese and Western analysts say the economy must be rebalanced to give more weight to consumers instead of investment, much of which is government-led and wasteful.中國和西方分析家都指出，中國必須重新調整經濟模式，將重心放到消費者而不是投資上，許多投資都是政府主導並且浪費的。State-owned companies which dominate many sectors need to be opened up to competition.主導著許多行業的國有公司需要開放和競爭。And, instead of championing these state-owned giants, the government must give more support instead to small and medium-sized companies, because these are likely to be the providers of future growth and jobs.並且，取代對國有大型企業的支持，政府應當對中小企業給予更多的幫助，因為這些中小企業可能提供未來的就業和發展。China"s government agrees with these goals, at least in its official pronouncements. The problem is it has done little to address them.中國政府贊成這些目標，起碼在其官方聲明裡是這樣說的。問題在於在實現這些目標上中國政府做得太少。Supporters say it was sidetracked by the global financial crisis, which prompted a huge stimulus package rather than structural reforms.支持者稱目標受到牽制是因為全球金融危機，它引發了巨大的經濟刺激方案而不是體制改革。Critics argue China"s one-party state is too compromised by vested interest groups, political concerns and corruption to introduce the needed changes.而批評者則辯稱中國的一黨執政對既得利益集團、政治關懷和腐敗問題太缺乏免疫力，所以無法引進所需的變革。They point to the state-owned sector, which produces only half of China"s GDP but gets the benefit of more than 70% of its bank lending, at artificially low interest rates.他們指出國有部門所產出的GDP佔中國的一半，但它們卻享有70%以上的銀行貸款，並且是以人為的低利率。Huo Deming, an economist at Peking University, says it is "unthinkable" for the state-owned sector to be forced to retreat.北京大學經濟學家霍德明說讓國有部門被迫撤退是「無法想像」的。"The state-owned enterprises will expand again, China"s political leaders want them to compete with the US and other countries, so further strengthening them is a must," he says.「國有企業會進一步擴張，中國的政治領袖希望它們與美國以及其他國家競爭，所以肯定會進一步壯大它們，」他說。Inequality不平等Everyone is much better off than when China began its economic reforms in 1978.比起1978年中國經濟改革之初，每個人都富裕多了。But incomes in the cities have risen far faster than in rural areas, while rich coastal provinces have powered ahead of the poor interior. The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences says the gap between urban and rural incomes has jumped 68% since 1985, creating one of the widest wealth gaps in Asia.但是城市收入的增長比農村地區快得多，同時富裕的沿海省份遠比貧窮的內地省份繁榮。中國社會科學院稱自1985年以來中國的城鄉收入差距上升了68%，成為亞洲貧富差距最大的國家之一。

（城鄉家庭年均可支配收入；單位：人民幣 千元；灰色為城市家庭，藍色為農村家庭。該圖表引自原文。）The government is worried the gap could spark social unrest. It points to poverty eradication programmes in poor provinces like Sichuan and its abolition of a centuries-old agricultural tax as proof of its committment.政府很擔心這種差距將激起社會不安。它在較窮的省份如四川實行了消除貧窮項目，並且取消了長達一個世紀之久的農業稅，並將這些作為自己履行義務的證明。It has also vastly expanded healthcare insurance, increasing the number of people covered ten-fold to 830 million, and education.政府還廣泛擴展了醫療保險覆蓋率，將其覆蓋人口提高了10倍，達到了8.3億，並擴展了教育。Yet critics say much more needs to be done, and point out that China spends only about 6% of GDP on social welfare, about half the level of countries at a similar level of development.然而批評者稱還有許多沒有完成，並指出中國僅僅花費了其GDP的6%用於社會福利事業，這只是相同發展水平國家標準的一半。Part of the problem is China"s governance system. Social spending is largely the responsibility of local governments, which say they do not have enough money, however much Beijing hectors them.問題部分在於中國的政府管理制度。社會福利支出大致來說歸責於地方政府，而不管中央政府如何威逼，地方政府常說它們沒有足夠的資金。Environment環境China"s explosive growth has created some of the world"s most complex environmental challenges.中國爆炸式的增長導致了世界上最複雜的環境問題。It is now the world"s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, yet will continue to rely on coal as its main energy source for the foreseeable future.它現在是世界上溫室氣體最大的排放者，而且在可預見的將來仍會繼續使用煤炭作為其主要的能源。New wealth has seen the number of cars on the roads quadruple since 2003. Yet China is already home to 20 of the world"s 30 most polluted cities.

（中國的能源產生，1971-2005；單位：百萬千瓦時；藍色：水電，黃色：核能，綠色：天然氣，橙色：石油，紫色：煤炭。該圖表引自原文。）新的財富增長已經導致中國公路上的汽車數量比2003年時翻了4倍。而且世界上污染最嚴重的30個城市裡，20個位於中國。The central government well understands the problems. It points to success stories like the restoration of the Loess plateau in the country"s north-west, and the fact that wind turbine capacity has doubled every year since 2005.中央政府很清楚地了解這些問題。它指出自己所取得的成就，比如恢復西北部的黃土高原，以及自2005年以來其風能發電機組容量每年翻一番的事實。It has also put in place the legal and regulatory framework for tackling environmental problems, though implementation - especially at the local level - remains patchy.政府應對環境問題的法律和制度框架也已經到位，儘管實施——尤其是地方政府的實施——仍差強人意。And, alongside the task of cleaning up a "high growth, high pollution" past, China still faces basic development challenges.除了掃清「高發展、高污染」的過去這項任務之外，中國還面臨著基本的發展挑戰。"They"ve made huge gains, but there are still 480 million people without access to sanitation, and nearly 120 million without access to water supplies," says Joanna Masic of the Asian Development Bank.亞洲發展銀行的喬安娜?瑪斯克說：「他們已經取得了巨大的成就，但仍然有4.8億人沒有衛生設施，還有將近1.2億人沒有供水設施。」Rising expectations不斷升高的期望As Chinese people have become richer and better educated, their expectations have drastically changed.隨著中國人越來越富並接受到更好的教育，他們的期望也發生了巨大的改變。They no longer just expect the next generation of leaders to run an economy that creates jobs and wealth, they want better services and greater freedoms too.他們不再僅僅期望下一代領導人在經濟上為他們創造工作機會和財富，而且期望得到更好的服務和更大的自由。More than 6 million people graduate from Chinese universities every year, a six-fold increase since 1998. More than 500 million people use the internet, especially a micro-blogging site called Sina Weibo. Smart phones are helping drive social activism and, sometimes, environmental protests.現在，每年有600萬人從大學畢業，比1998年時增加了6倍。超過5億人使用網路，尤其是使用一個微博站點：新浪微博。智能手機幫助促進了社會運動，並且有時，導致環境示威遊行。There is conflicting evidence as to whether people are happier, as well as richer.關於人們更富裕之餘是否更幸福了的話題，一些證據是相互矛盾的。Analysis by Richard Easterlin, of the University of Southern California, suggests China"s wealthiest third were more satisfied with their lives in 2007 than in 1990, but the rest of the country was not.南加利福尼亞大學的理查德?伊斯特林的分析表明，中國第三富有階層對他們2007年的生活比對1990年時感到更加滿意，而該國的其他人群則不是這樣。Part of the reason may be aspirational. People know their lives have improved, but think other people are doing even better.部分原因可能與期待有關。人們都知道自己的生活水平已經提升了，但卻認為別人做得更好。Demographics人口China"s fertility rate is one of the lowest in the world, in part because of the one-child policy. This restricts urban couples to having only one child, unless both partners are themselves only children.中國的生育率是世界上最低的之一，部分原因就是其獨生子女政策。這就限制了城市夫婦只能生一個孩子，除非夫妻雙方都是獨生子女。As a result, China has fewer and fewer young people to pay for the pensions and healthcare of more and more elderly.因此，中國現在有越來越少的年輕人來支付越來越多的老人的養老金和醫療保健。The working-age population is set to start shrinking from 2015, adding to pressure on wages. China will also soon have more senior citizens than the EU.工作年齡的人口將從2015年起開始減少，進一步增加了工資的壓力。而中國的老年人口將很快超過歐盟。The one-child policy has also created anomalies. Some parents who want boys abort fetuses which ultrasound scans show to be female. China now has about 120 male births for every 100 female births, and there are estimates that by 2020, 24 million single men will be left without potential partners.獨生子女政策還導致了人口反常。有些想要男孩的父母通過超聲波檢查發現懷的是女胎的話就會去流產。中國目前每出生100個女孩，就有120個男孩出生，預計到2020年，將有2400萬單身男人找不到伴侶。Academics and government think tanks have called for the policy to be scrapped, which would be popular with young Chinese and could help restore China"s fertility rate.學術界和政府智囊團都曾呼籲取消這項政策，這可能會受到年輕人的歡迎並且幫助恢復中國的生育率。But no senior leader has publicly backed any changes, which some officials appear to worry could lead to a population explosion.但是沒有高級領導公開支持任何這方面的變化，因為某些官員擔心這可能導致人口爆炸。翻譯：李金慧原文：http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-20030681本譯文版權歸環球博客 http://blog.huanqiu.com/及譯者共同所有，未經譯者及環球博客授權，嚴禁轉載，違者將被追究法律責任。
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