「一帶一路」引領包容性全球化 The BRI： A Path Way to Inclusive G...

文/劉衛東

by Liu Weidong

近年來全球形勢變化劇烈，保護主義抬頭，讓世界上很多政治及學術精英們對經濟全球化的擔憂與日俱增。英國前首相戈登·布朗在為《中國新聞周刊》撰寫的文章中寫到：「全球化進程處於群龍無首的不堪局面，而且就像一列隨時可能傾斜並失控的火車」。的確，2008年全球金融危機特別是2016年以來，經濟全球化的趨勢急轉直下。先有英國脫歐，後有美國特朗普政府上台後宣布和實施的一系列保護主義措施。這兩個自由貿易的積極倡導者和全球化的主要推動者都後退了，讓失去動力的全球化這列「火車」進入了迷茫區。在近兩年的達沃斯世界經濟論壇上，全球化與逆全球化一直是世界精英們討論的熱點問題之一。

The rise of protectionism in recent years has accompanied dramatic changes taking place in the world, leaving global statesmen and scholars anxious about the future of globalization. Since the 2008 international financial crisis and especially after 2016, the globalization trend has taken a sudden downturn marked by Brexit and a series of protectionist policies implemented by the Donald Trump administration. Once stalwart champions of free trade and globalization, the United States and Britain both took a step back, causing the locomotive of globalization to lose power and switch tracks.

2016年8月7日，韓國現代商船、中國台灣德翔航運、以色列以星航運3家航運公司合作開闢的東南亞線在天津港正式投入運營。這是天津港繼東方海外東南亞線、現代東南亞線、2M聯盟新歐洲線之後，成功開通的第四條「一帶一路」集裝箱班輪航線。

在這種大背景下，中國提出的「一帶一路」倡議為風雨飄搖的全球經濟帶來穩定的力量，在推動全球化的改革與發展上發揮著重要的引領作用。五年前，中國提出「一帶一路」倡議的初衷主要是為全球經濟治理體系「添磚加瓦」；五年後的今天，全球形勢的變化客觀上將「一帶一路」倡議推到了一個更高的位置，成為全球越來越多的國家和政治領袖們探索全球經濟治理新模式的平台。可以說，「一帶一路」正在引領新型全球化道路，將開創包容性全球化的新時代。

Against this backdrop, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which was proposed by China, has become an anchor for the precarious global economy and a propeller of the reform and development of globalization. Five years ago when it proposed the initiative, China was aiming to improve the global economic governance system. Now, changes in the global context have objectively raised the initiative』s importance to new heights—it is a platform for increasing numbers of heads of state and government to explore new modes of global economic governance. In short, the BRI is leading a new type of globalization and will usher in a new era of inclusive globalization.

所謂包容性全球化是針對過去三十多年的新自由主義全球化而言的，兩者之間既有聯繫也有根本性區別。包容性全球化不是全球化開倒車或「逆全球化」，而是全球化的發展和改革。兩者之間的根本區別在於全球化不能僅僅為資本空間擴張和積累服務，也要照顧到活生生的人們的需要。包容性全球化的主要內涵是五個「包容」：

The term 「inclusive globalization」 is an immanent critique of neoliberal globalization of the last 30 to 40 years that features both similarities and differences with the latter. Inclusive globalization does not involve de-globalization or a reversal of globalization but rather a radical evolution and reform of globalization. The fundamental difference between the two is that inclusive globalization is designed first and foremost to improve people』s livelihoods rather than only serve the interests of capital.

經濟增長的包容性

Inclusive Growth

在全球發展和國家發展的研究與實踐中，自由市場與政府干預之間的關係一直是焦點。為了解決全球化面臨的問題，國家需要從主要服務於資本積累和擴張，轉向更加重視社會公平，並提高治理能力。

In the research and practice of both global and national development, the relationship between markets and government intervention has been a consistent focus. An inclusive growth model requires a more active state to avoid becoming subservient to the needs of capital accumulation, with greater emphasis on social equity, environmental sustainability and improved governance capacity.

首先，各國政府需要強化合作的能力以應對全球挑戰。今天世界面臨的很多問題，包括全球變暖、難民問題、金融動蕩、經濟增長都已經不是一個國家可以獨自解決，各國政府要有合作的能力，這個能力很重要。

First, governments need to strengthen cooperation to address global challenges such as turbulence in financial markets, climate change and similar global pains.

其次，國家需要強化保護基層民眾和貧困人口的能力，如再就業培訓、創新創業能力培育、減貧脫貧等。

Second, countries need to strengthen the protection of ordinary people and increase the living standards of the poor through training and education, targeted poverty alleviation, mass entrepreneurship and innovation, job creation, infrastructure provision, and other measures.

巴基斯坦是亞洲的新興市場，整體經濟依賴輕工業出口，紡織業則是多數農民脫貧進城的支柱產業，進口產品主要是石油及相關製品。一心致力於提高對外貿易的巴基斯坦，將「一帶一路」視為發展的重要契機。

第三，國家需要具備對資本市場的引導能力和資源配置能力，以提供基本、可靠、可負擔得起的公共服務。「一帶一路」倡議非常重視政府的作用，首先強調的就是沿線國家的政策溝通以及發展戰略對接、規劃對接和項目對接，積極尋找利益契合點。這樣的發展並非僅僅滿足資本「信馬由韁」的空間擴張需要，而是考慮到欠發達地區和基層民眾的需要，以更多人和更多地區受益為基本考量，體現了強大的包容性。

Third, a country needs the ability to guide the allocation of financial resources and provide basic, reliable and affordable public services. The BRI attaches great importance to the role of governments, emphasizing interactive bilateral or multilateral policy coordination, alignment of development strategies, plans and projects and a proactive search for points of agreement and mutual benefits. The aim is not just to meet the need of capital expansion, but do so in ways that meet the needs of less developed regions and ordinary people, spread the benefits to more regions and more people and provide for inclusive, win-win adaptation and adjustment.

基礎設施的包容性

Inclusive Infrastructure Development

很多研究已經表明，連通性是一個地區從經濟全球化中獲得發展機遇的前提，投資於瓶頸制約性基礎設施也會刺激經濟增長、獲得社會和金融回報。而現實卻是另一幅圖景，儘管現代化基礎設施已經將世界上很多地區連接成網路化的「小世界」和發達的市場體系，但全球仍然有很多地區和數十億人口沒有進入到這個現代化的體系之中。同時一些發達國家（如美國）的大量基礎設施已經老化卻沒有得到及時更新。

Inclusive infrastructure development means providing reliable and affordable infrastructure in less developed areas and countries. Many studies have shown that connectivity is a prerequisite for developing opportunities for a region to benefit from economic globalization, and that investing in infrastructure bottlenecks can spur economic growth and social and financial returns. Although modern infrastructure has linked many parts of the globe, making the world smaller in many ways, many regions and billions of people still lack full access to the modern infrastructure system. Even in some developed countries such as the United States, infrastructure has become outdated and dilapidated due to a lack of investment.

這個問題的出現與近30年來全球資本市場的變化有很大關係。傳統的儲蓄銀行和投資銀行曾是金融市場的主角，但最近30年這些傳統金融機構的地位不斷下降，取而代之的是各種新的金融中介機構，如養老金、對沖基金、主權基金、保險公司等。

These problems are closely related to changes in national and global capital markets since the 1980s. Over the past 25 years, regional banks and traditional savings organizations have lost out to new financial intermediaries such as pension funds, mutual funds, sovereign wealth funds, funds of private corporations and certain types of insurance companies.

「一帶一路」倡議的優先領域之一就是設施互聯互通，並將提供大量基礎設施建設融資，有助於欠發達國家和地區加快接入現代化基礎設施網路的進程，從而獲得發展機會。

這些新的金融中介機構更傾向於在金融市場進行投機性投資或短期投資，屬於典型的「熱錢」。而基礎設施建設項目具有規模大、周期長、資本密集的特點，回報期長，得不到「熱錢」的青睞。因此，全球基礎設施融資市場存在著嚴重的「期限錯配」，需要更多的「耐心資本」。

The fundamental problem is that the funds supplied by these financial intermediaries are more likely to be invested in speculative or short-term investments in financial markets. Hot money that flows from one country to another to earn short-term profits is exemplary, as is the conduct of institutions such as hedge funds. Infrastructure projects are, however, large scale and capital-intensive with long turnover times and long payback periods that require patient long-term funding. The gap between these needs and the predominance of short-term financing led scholars like Justin Yifu Lin to emphasize the importance of a serious 「maturity mismatch」 in the global infrastructure financing market and the need for more 「patient capital.」

中國政府提出的「一帶一路」倡議的優先領域之一就是設施互聯互通，並將提供大量基礎設施建設融資，有助於欠發達國家和地區加快接入現代化基礎設施網路的進程，從而獲得發展機會。這正是「一帶一路」倡議受到很多發展中國家歡迎的重要原因之一。

One of the priority areas of the BRI is the provision of substantial infrastructure financing for connectivity of facilities to accelerate access to modern infrastructure networks in less developed countries and regions and provide opportunities for development. The provision of patient capital is one of the important reasons the BRI has been welcomed by many developing countries.

發展道路的包容性

Inclusive Development Paths

經濟全球化不需要一個統一的發展模式，要放棄推廣統一發展模式或最佳實踐的理念。伴隨經濟全球化，美、英等國不斷把新自由主義思想輸送給其他國家，特別是發展中國家。

Globalization does not require a unified development model—promoting the so-called 「best practices」 and established formulas for development should be abandoned.

20世紀90年代中期，由國際貨幣基金組織、世界銀行聯合美國財政部主導制定的「華盛頓共識」成為標準藥方，為全球經濟設置了標準和原則。一旦哪個國家需要金融援助時，這個國家就必須按照「華盛頓共識」採取新自由主義經濟政策，否則就得不到援助並面臨崩潰的危險。

In the years since the 1980s, the United States, Britain and other countries sought to transfer neoliberal ideals and policies often in the shape of conditionality to other countries, especially developing countries. In the late 1980s, the Washington Consensus emerged as a set of policy prescriptions adopted by Washington-based institutions such as the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the United States Treasury Department. In the 1990s, these and sometimes a wider set of neoliberal measures were imposed on countries in need of financial assistance.

一直到2008年全球金融危機之前，世界銀行一直向發展中國家兜售其「最佳實踐」，其中的「精髓」就是私有化、市場化和自由化。近20多年的經驗表明，被迫採納「華盛頓共識」的國家幾乎都陷入了經濟困境，喪失了經濟獨立自主的地位。而中國通過「摸著石頭過河」的方式探索出了適合自己的發展道路，實現了經濟的騰飛。

At least until the global financial crisis of 2008, the World Bank peddled to developing countries a set of 「best practices」 whose essence was privatization, marketization and liberalization. Although frequently recommended (but unable to be imposed), China did not adopt these standard prescriptions. Instead, it explored its own development path of 「crossing the river by feeling the stones.」

正因如此，不同於新自由主義全球化，中國提出的「一帶一路」倡議不認為世界上只有一條最佳發展道路（即發達國家走過的路），而是強調每個國家應該根據發展條件和自身基礎選擇適合自己的發展道路。習近平主席在「一帶一路」國際合作高峰論壇曾指出，中國不干涉別國的意識形態，不輸出自己的發展模式，著眼於互利共贏，共同做大「蛋糕」、共同分享。

As a result, it achieved rapid and sustained economic growth. It is precisely for this reason that unlike the neoliberal globalization model, China』s BRI does not involve the identification of one best development path (namely, one centered on contemporary economic, institutional and political conditions in developed countries). Instead, the BRI stresses that each country should choose a development path that suits its own development conditions and its own circumstances. At the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation in May 2017, Chinese President Xi Jinping noted that China has no intention to interfere in other countries』 internal affairs or export its own model of development, but seeks to achieve a new model of win-win cooperation.

參與的包容性

Inclusive Participation in Globalization

對於「包容性全球化」這個概念來說，全球化是世界各國和人民共同的事業。儘管世界強國是全球化的推動者，但各國應該有平等參與的基本權利。歷史經驗表明，在此前的經濟全球擴展過程中，強者總是以霸權的姿態出現。無論是早期以英、法為代表的殖民主義貿易擴張，還是後來以美國為代表的帝國主義資本全球擴張，都是極不平等的國際經貿形式。

The very concept of inclusive globalization embodies the notion that it involves all countries and all people in the world. Although global powers are the catalysts of globalization, all countries should have the basic right to equal participation. In historical experiences of global economic expansion, strong countries exercised dominant (hegemonic) influence. The expansion of colonial trade was dominated at various times by the Portuguese, Spanish and Dutch, followed by a wave of imperial expansion led by Great Britain and subsequently the United States. The liberal international order dominated by Western countries has been associated with an extremely unequal system of international trade and investment.

2017年5月14日至15日，第一屆「一帶一路」國際合作高峰論壇在北京舉行，來自130多個國家的約1500名各界嘉賓出席論壇。

在近30多年的經濟全球化過程中，大型跨國公司成為新的強者，具有某種霸權地位和巨大的權力，讓很多國家在與其談判中處於弱勢。在進一步推進全球化過程中，如何照顧到「弱者」無疑是包容性的一個關鍵問題。

In the last phase of economic globalization, multinational corporations and Western-dominated international organizations supported by the United States, the only global superpower, exercised extraordinary power, leaving many countries in a weak position to negotiate with them. While further advancing globalization, a key issue in promoting an inclusive path concerns methods to care for the weak and limit the dominant influence of great powers.

「一帶一路」倡議堅持「開放包容」和「平等互利」的理念以及「共商、共建、共享」的原則，把尋找發展的最大公約數放在首位，突出共同發展、共同繁榮；而且，該倡議不劃小圈子，秉持開放態度，歡迎有興趣的國家或地區以適當的方式平等地參與。這正是「一帶一路」倡議強大包容性的體現。

The BRI adheres to the principles of 「openness, inclusiveness, equality and mutual benefits」 as well as that of 「achieving shared growth through discussion and collaboration,」 lifting the largest common development factor atop the agenda and giving priority to joint development and common prosperity. Moreover, the initiative is neither confined to a small group, nor just for groups with one set of beliefs or social values. The initiative upholds open-mindedness and welcomes all interested countries and regions to participate in appropriate ways on equal footing. The Joint Communiqué of the Leaders Roundtable of the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation specifically emphasized the need for special attention on least developed countries, landlocked developing countries, small island developing states and other such parties. Such players are the cornerstones of a strong and inclusive BRI.

文化的包容性

Cultural Inclusiveness

過去300年來，西歐和北美國家率先崛起為發達國家，在全球經濟擴張中佔據著主導地位。這一方面讓這些西方國家產生了自我為中心的意識形態和絕對的文化優越感，另一方面在強大壓力下也讓很多發展中國家產生了文化自卑感。

Over the past three centuries, Western European and North American countries led development, emerging as 「developed」 countries and colonial/imperial powers, and have since occupied a leading position in the global economic order. These Western countries have developed self-centric ideologies and a sense of cultural superiority, under pressure from which many developing countries have been left with a sense of cultural inferiority.

尤其是近幾十年來，伴隨經濟全球化力量越來越強大，在主觀和客觀因素共同作用下，很多國家的文化獨立性變得岌岌可危。好萊塢電影、麥當勞快餐文化、顏色革命等席捲了很多國家和地區，帶來了各種各樣的文化衝突；這種西方中心論和文化優勢論所帶來的惡果，非常不利於全球可持續發展。

Especially in recent decades, increasingly powerful forces of economic globalization and the projection of Western political and ideological power have eroded the cultural independence of many countries and non-Western civilizational values. Hollywood movies, McDonald』s fast food culture, Western-inspired and supported 「color revolutions」 and wars in some cases have swept through many countries and regions, bringing all kinds of cultural conflicts. The evil consequences of the dominance of Western doctrine and Western cultural superiority are very detrimental to global sustainable development.

2015年10月18日，「一帶一路」萬里行聯手「一帶一路」項目建設合作跨國圓桌會舉辦的中意文化經貿產業交流會在義大利佛羅倫薩的中意設計交流中心佛羅倫薩基地舉辦。

而古絲綢之路流傳下來的「互學互鑒」精神則反映出完全不同的文化價值觀。基於「絲路精神」的「一帶一路」倡議尊崇「和而不同」的文化價值觀，強調在維護文化多元性的基礎上共謀發展、共求繁榮、共享和平。所謂「和而不同」就是平等對待、互學互鑒，以及多樣性與統一性的共存。中國國家主席習近平多次強調，「一帶一路」倡議不以意識形態劃線，不搞政治議程；人類文明沒有高低優劣之分，文明因為平等交流和相互學習而變得豐富多彩，變得更有創新力。

The ancient Silk Road』s principle of mutual respect and mutual learning upheld completely different cultural values. The BRI also venerates the Silk Road spirit, respecting cultural differences and emphasizing the principles of common development and common prosperity on the basis of the preservation of cultural pluralism and shared peace. Chinese President Xi Jinping has repeatedly stressed that the BRI does not involve an ideological or political agenda. There is no place for concepts of cultural superiority or inferiority anywhere in it. Through equal exchange and mutual learning, cultures have become more colorful and more innovative.

「全球化與一帶一路」以及「開放的亞洲」是2018年亞洲博鰲論壇上的兩個重要議題。當前，經濟全球化已走到十字路口，逆全球化調門升高、貿易戰一觸即發，尋找新的全球化道路迫在眉捷。在此背景下，藉助「一帶一路」倡議、推動包容性全球化正在成為世界上越來越多政治領袖們的一種新的政治理念。因此，可以說，包容性全球化對亞洲一體化有重要意義，是推動亞洲一體化的新思維和新動力。

Two of the four key topics of this year』s Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference are 「An Open Asia,」 and 「Globalization and the Belt and Road Initiative.」 Economic globalization has reached a crossroads. Anti-globalization rhetoric is becoming strident and trade wars are on hair-trigger alert. So the promotion of inclusive globalization with the help of the BRI has become a more attractive political concept to more political leaders from around the world. Inclusive globalization can also enhance the integration of Asia, providing a new philosophy and a new driving force for its advancement.

本文作者劉衛東為「一帶一路」戰略研究中心主任，中國科學院地理科學與資源研究所所長助理、研究員、博導。

The author is director of the Center for the Belt and Road Initiative Studies and assistant director of the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research at the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

本文為《中印對話》獨家稿件，歡迎分享，媒體轉載請聯繫我們。

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