中國是如何依靠貿易政策戰勝美國的

中國是怎樣不正當地戰勝美國的

China"s manufacturing advantage over the U.S. is actually due to a complex array of unfair trade practices, all of which are illegal under free-trade rules.

中國在製造業上的優勢，來源於一系列複雜而又不符合自由貿易規定的貿易慣例。

By Peter Navarro

作者：Peter Navarro

June 21, 2011

2011年6月21日

The American economy has been in trouble for more than a decade, and no amount of right-wing tax cuts or left-wing fiscal stimuli will solve the primary structural problem underpinning our slow growth and high unemployment. That problem is a massive, persistent trade deficit — most of it with China — that cuts the number of jobs created by nearly the number we need to keep America fully employed.

美國的經濟已經陷入困境超過十年了，無論是右派的減稅政策還是左派的財政刺激政策都沒有起到根本的作用。因為我們的低增長率和高失業率的根源在於基本的結構問題。巨大而持久的貿易逆差使得美國無法達到充分就業，而這大部分來自於與中國的貿易。

To understand why huge U.S. trade deficits represent the taproot of the nation"s economic woes, it"s crucial to understand that four factors drive our gross domestic product: consumption, business investment, government spending and net exports. This discussion focuses on net exports.

要理解為什麼美國的貿易逆差是國家經濟的問題根源，關鍵要認識到促進國內生產總值的四個因素：消費、企業投資、政府支出和凈出口值。我們在這裡討論的重點是凈出口值。

Net exports represent the difference between how much we export and import. A trade deficit means net exports are negative, and that directly reduces both the GDP growth rate and rate of job creation.

凈出口值代表總出口值和總進口值之間的差值，貿易逆差則意味著這個值是一個負數。它直接地降低了GDP的增長率和增加就業的機會。

America"s trade deficit is costing us close to 1% of GDP growth a year at a loss of almost 1 million jobs annually. That"s millions of jobs we have failed to create over the last decade; and if we had those jobs now, we wouldn"t see continuing high unemployment numbers, padlocked houses under foreclosure and empty factories pushing up weeds.

美國的貿易逆差每年要拉低1%的GDP增長率，那可以解決一百萬人的就業問題。十年來，因此損失的就業機會數以百萬計。假如有了這些就業機會，我們現在就不會看見這麼高的失業率、因喪失抵押品贖回權而緊鎖的房屋、和雜草叢生的廢棄工廠。

It follows that if we want to get America back to work, we need to sharply reduce our trade deficit. As a statistical matter, that means sharply reducing our trade deficit with China.

這樣說來，如果我們要扭轉現狀，就必須要大幅度地減少貿易逆差。從統計得到的結果來看，這意味著大幅度減少我們與中國之間的貿易逆差。

Every business day, American consumers buy $1 billion more in Chinese exports than American manufacturers sell to China, and China alone accounts for about 70% of America"s trade deficit in goods, excluding oil imports. This "Chinese import dependence" has led a democratic America to owe the largest communist nation in the world more than $1 trillion, while China holds more than $3 trillion in foreign reserves, most of them in U.S. dollars.

在每一個工作日，美國的消費者購買的從中國進口的商品的價值要比美國製造商銷售到中國的多十億。而在商品貿易上，不計石油進口，中國就佔了美國貿易逆差的70%。這種「中國的進口依存」導致民主的美國虧欠世界上最大的共產主義國家超過一萬億。而中國持有超過三萬億的外匯儲備，其中大部分是美元。

To put these dollar reserves in perspective, that"s more than enough money for China to buy a controlling interest in every major company in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, including Alcoa, Caterpillar, Exxon Mobil and Wal-Mart, and still leave billions to spare.

更形象一點來說，中國用這些錢來購買道瓊斯工業平均指數上的每一家主要公司——包括美國鋁業、卡特彼勒、埃克森美孚和沃爾瑪——的多數股權還綽綽有餘，空閑資金還有數十億之多。

So how can we eliminate, or at least drastically reduce, our trade deficit with China? For starters, we must puncture the myth that China"s main manufacturing edge is solely its cheap labor. Indeed, while low labor costs are a factor, when you carefully research the biggest source of China"s manufacturing advantage, it is actually a complex array of unfair trade practices, all of which are illegal under free-trade rules.

因此，我們要怎樣消除，或至少大大地減少我們和中國之間的貿易逆差呢？首先，我們一定要打破中國在製作業的主要優勢單單在於廉價勞動力上的誤論。確實，廉價勞動力是一個重要因素，但如果你仔細地調查一番，就會發現中國最大的製造業優勢來源實際上是一系列複雜的不公正貿易慣例。在自由貿易的規定下，這些都是不合法的。

The most potent of China"s "weapons of job destruction" are an elaborate web of export subsidies; the blatant piracy of America"s technologies and trade secrets; the counterfeiting of valuable brand names like Nike and Chevy; a cleverly manipulated and grossly undervalued currency; and the forced transfer of the technology of any American company wishing to operate on Chinese soil or sell into the Chinese market.

中國最強大的「銷毀工作的武器」是：一張複雜精巧的出口補貼網；公然對美國的技術和商業秘密的盜版；對名牌，例如耐克和雪佛蘭的仿冒；一種被巧妙地操縱著的、被嚴重低估的貨幣；以及對美國公司希望應用在中國或者銷售到中國市場的技術的強迫轉讓。

Each of these unfair trade practices is expressly prohibited both by World Trade Organization rules as well as rules established by the U.S. government, e.g., the Treasury Department has sanctions against currency manipulation (which, alas, the Obama administration refuses to use against China despite campaign promises to do so).

這每一條貿易慣例都是不公正的，而且是被同時世界貿易組織和美國政府的法律明文禁止的。例如，美國財政部就有對貨幣操縱制裁措施。（哎呀，奧巴馬政府雖然在競選時承諾了這一點，但是上台後卻拒絕對中國使用。）

In addition, there is the Chinese Communist Party"s incredibly shortsighted willingness to trade tremendous environmental damage and a surfeit of workplace deaths and injuries for a few more pennies of production cost advantage, all because of ultra-lax regulatory standards. For example, according to the World Health Organization, almost 700,000 Chinese citizens die annually from the effects of air pollution — that"s like losing everybody in Wyoming every year — while Chinese officials acknowledge more than 2,000 coal mining deaths annually, compared with fewer than 50 in the United States.

此外，中國共產黨還極其目光短淺地用巨大的環境損壞和過量的工作場所的人員傷亡來換取極微薄的生產成本的利益。這一切都是因為極度鬆懈的監管標準。舉個例子，根據世界衛生組織的統計，每年有接近700，000中國市民由於空氣污染的影響而死亡——那是整個懷俄明州的居民數——而中國官員也承認每年有超過2000人因開採煤礦而死亡。美國每年只有不到50宗。

Make no mistake. All of these real economic weapons have led to the shutdown of thousands of American factories and turned millions of American workers into collateral damage, all under the false flag of so-called free trade.

別搞錯了，這些都是實實在在的經濟武器，並且已經導致美國成千上萬的工廠倒閉，使數以百萬計的美國工人遭受到了間接傷害。而這一切都是在所謂自由貿易的錯誤旗幟下發生的。

The second myth we must expose if we are to ever reverse the job-killing trade deficits we now run with China is the idea that free trade always benefits both countries. That doesn"t hold true if one country cheats on the other. Instead, when a mercantilist China uses unfair trade practices to wage war on our manufacturing base, the American economy is the big loser.

如果我們想要扭轉這和中國之間的、對人們就業造成巨大負面影響的貿易逆差，我們要揭發的第二個誤論就是自由貿易對雙方都總是有利的。這完全不適用於一個國家對另一個國家使詐的情況。而如果重商主義的中國用這些不公正的貿易慣例對我們的生產基地發動戰爭，美國經濟將成為大輸家。

Given America"s structural problem with China and absent constructive trade reform, our economic prospects can only dim further. The presidential candidate who grasps that essential truth, which is becoming increasingly understood by much of the electorate, will be the one who wins in 2012. We need someone who can lead this country to a trade relationship with China founded on the American ideals of free and fair trade rather than a set of mercantilist and socialist trade policies that employ the Chinese masses at the expense of American workers.

考慮到美國和中國之間的結構性問題和缺乏積極的貿易改革，我們的經濟前景相當黯淡。能夠認清這個基本事實的總統候選人將會得到越來越多的選民支持，從而成為2012年美國總統大選的勝利者。我們需要一個能夠在美國理想中的自由平等貿易基礎上領導國家改變與中國的貿易關係的總統，而不是在一系列重商主義、社會主義的貿易政策下以美國工人的利益為代價滿足中國群眾的就業需求。

Peter Navarro is a business professor at UC Irvine, a CNBC contributor and the coauthor with Greg Autry of "Death by China: Confronting the Dragon — A Global Call to Action."

Peter Navarro是加州大學爾灣分校的企業管理教授，同時也是美國全國廣播公司財經頻道的撰稿者。他與Greg Autry合著了《對抗中國——一個全球性的號召》。

Copyright ? 2011, Los Angeles Times

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