標普將中國房產行業評級前景降至負面 S&P downgrades China property sector as cash restrictions bite

06-11

2011年06月16日 07:03 AM標普將中國房產行業評級前景降至負面S&P downgrades China property sector as cash restrictions bite英國《金融時報》吉密歐北京報道評論[58條]


Standard & Poor』s has downgraded its credit rating outlook on China』s property sector to negative, pointing to worsening borrowing conditions and a likely slump in sales volumes.	評級機構標準普爾(Standard & Poor』s)已將對中國房產行業的信用評級前景調降至負面，理由是借款條件惡化，銷售量可能下滑。
The rating agency downgrade came as analysts warned of a potential price war among developers starved of cash by Beijing』s efforts to rein in the residential property sector.	標普調降評級之際，分析師警告稱，由於中國政府採取措施抑制住宅行業，資金匱乏的開發商之間可能爆發價格戰。
「In the near term, what worries us most is the liquidity position of developers, who are facing very tight lending controls,」 said Bei Fu, an analyst at S&P in Hong Kong. 「In this situation, developers really need to rely on their own sales but this is a highly uncertain prospect given government attempts to suppress the market and the fact sales volumes have already started to come down.」	「近期來看，我們最為擔心的是開發商的流動性狀況，它們面臨著非常嚴格的放貸限制，」標準普爾駐香港分析師符蓓表示，「在這種情況下，開發商急切需要依賴自己的銷售，但鑒於政府企圖遏制市場以及銷售量已開始下滑的現實，前景高度不確定。」
Residential property sales in China grew 17.7 per cent last month compared with the previous year, in terms of total area sold, after falling more than 10 per cent in April, according to government figures.	政府數據顯示，上個月，中國住宅房地產銷售總面積同比增長17.7%，4月則同比下滑逾10%。
But analysts said the apparent rebound in sales in May was mainly due to a very low base in May 2010, the month after Beijing first announced a range of restrictions on housing sales.	然而，分析師表示，5月銷售量表面上的反彈，主要是因為去年5月的基數非常低，去年4月中國政府宣布了一系列售樓限制措施。
Most analysts expect volumes to decline further in the coming months, forcing developers to cut prices to maintain sales in the face of cash shortages.	多數分析師預測，未來幾個月，銷售量將繼續下滑，這將迫使資金短缺的開發商採取降價措施，以保持銷售量。
「Developers will start cutting prices more aggressively in the second half and we expect this to cause sales volumes to dry up further as people don』t want to catch a falling knife,」 said Du Jinsong, a real estate analyst at Credit Suisse. 「We believe the worst is yet to come for China』s property sector.」	「今年下半年，開發商將開始採取力度更大的降價措施，我們預計，這將導致銷售量進一步下滑，因為人們不希望在房價下跌時購房，」瑞士信貸(Credit Suisse)房地產分析師杜勁松表示，「我們認為，中國房地產行業的最糟糕階段尚未到來。」
Moody』s rating agency cut its outlook for China』s property developers from stable to negative in April.	今年4月，評級機構穆迪(Moody』s)將中國房地產開發商的前景從穩定降至負面。
With oversupply in a cooling market an increasingly likely scenario, some analysts believe cash-strapped developers are poised for a price war that could lead to drops in property prices across the country.	由於這個正在降溫的市場越來越有可能出現供應過度，一些分析師認為，資金匱乏的開發商正準備發動一場價格戰，這可能造成全國房地產價格下跌。
「We believe the prospect of a price war is currently limited, but the situation could change quickly due to uncertain credit conditions and property sales,」 S&P said on Wednesday.	標準普爾周三表示：「我們認為，目前而言，價格戰的前景有限，但由於不確定的信貸狀況以及房產銷售，情況可能會迅速變化。」
An average property price drop of more than 30 per cent could be devastating for the Chinese economy because of the importance of land sales to local government finances and of housing construction to the overall economy.	對於中國經濟而言，鑒於土地銷售對地方政府財政、以及住宅建設對整個經濟的重要性，房價平均跌幅超過30%可能是沉重的打擊。