美國與中國：買賣雙方的奇怪關係

美國與中國：買賣雙方的奇怪關係

This article is by Baizhu Chen, a professor of clinical finance and business economics at USC Marshall School of Business. He is also senior researcher at the Institute of Finance and Banking at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, chief economist of Sino-Century Capital, a venture capital firm in Shanghai, and former president of the Chinese Economists Society, and he is academic director for Marshall』s Global Executive MBA program.

本文作者系南加州大學馬歇爾商學院金融與商業經濟學教授陳百助（音）。他同時還擔任中國社會科學院金融研究所高級研究員、上海中國世紀投資管理公司首席經濟學家、前中國留美經濟學會會長、馬歇爾商學院全球高級工商管理碩士課程的教務主任。

Once upon a time there were a buyer and a seller. The seller insisted on selling her product at a lower price. The buyer, strangely, was upset about paying such a low price. In fact, he was so furious that he threatened to take legal action against the seller if she refused to sell her product to him at a higher price.

從前，有一個買家和一個賣家。賣家以低價出售產品。而買家，奇怪的是，卻為如此低價而感到不快。事實上，買家非常憤怒，以至於威脅賣家如不以較高價格將產品出售給他，他將採取法律手段。

Have you ever experienced such a situation at a store? I haven』t. As a buyer, I would love to see a shop insisting on selling merchandise to me at a lower price. I have been looking for such a shop my whole life, and I am still searching. The whole premise of buyers insisting on paying higher prices is nonsensical to a rational person. If people believed in paying more rather than less, all the books of modern economics would have to be thrown out the window.

你曾在店裡遇到過這種情況嗎？我沒遇到過。作為買家，我很樂意商家堅持以低價把商品賣給我。這樣的商家我尋找了一輩子，而且還在苦苦尋找。對於一個理性的人來說，顧客堅持高價購買產品的假設是十分荒謬的。如果人們都願意付高價而不是求便宜的話，那麼那些現代經濟學的書都得扔到窗外去了。

China and America have become exactly such a seller and buyer. China, the world』s biggest seller, sells cheap Christmas ornaments, cheap iPhones, cheap Gap shirts, and cheap Nike shoes to America. All Chinese know that the same pair of Nike shoes costs less in the U.S. than in China. That is why Gap stores, Nike outlets, and Apple stores in the U.S. are all a must stop for Chinese tourists, even though their products are all made and available in China.

中國和美國正成為這樣的賣家和買家。中國，這個全球最大的賣家，正把廉價的聖誕飾品、Iphone、Gap襯衫和Nike鞋傾銷到美國。中國人都知道同一雙Nike鞋在美國買比在中國買更便宜。這就是為什麼在美國的Gap、Nike以及Apple的專賣店成為中國遊客的必經之地，即使這些產品都是中國生產也在中國銷售。

We in America, on the other hand, are very unappreciative buyers. We are apparently angry at China for selling us cheap products. We accuse China of selling us cheap this and cheap that, and most of all, we are angry at China for selling us its cheap currency, called renminbi, or yuan. The United States Senate, which represents tens of millions of American consumers, recently passed a bill to pressure China to sell its currency more expensively so that we as buyers in America would have to pay higher prices for Chinese-made products.

另一方面，我們在美國卻是些「不識抬舉」的買家。我們似乎對中國向我們出售廉價商品而感到憤怒。我們指責中國向我們出售這個或那個廉價商品，最重要的是，我們對中國向我們出售廉價貨幣（人民幣或元）而感到氣憤。最近，美國參議院代表億萬消費者通過一項法案，意在對中國施壓促使人民幣升值以使美國買家以更高的價格購買中國製造的產品。

The argument is that this is good for the U.S. economy because cheap Chinese products take away American jobs. Really? A bit of history might help. Thirty years ago, Japan was accused of taking away American jobs, because of the undervalued Japanese yen. The yen has since appreciated from 250 yen per dollar to 80 yen today. Jobs have not returned.

這一舉動的理由是，這樣有利於美國經濟，因為廉價中國製造搶走了美國人的就業機會。真是這樣嗎？回顧一下歷史或許能幫我們理解這件事。30年前，由於日元被低估，日本被指責奪走了美國人的就業機會。於是日元兌換美元從彼時的250日元升值到現在的80日元。而就業機會卻沒有因此增加。

Three years ago, right after the U.S. presidential election, one American dollar could buy approximately 7.5 Chinese renminbi. Today, it gets less than 6.4. If we wanted to punish China for taking away our jobs with its undervalued currency, we should have done so three years ago, when the renminbi was 15% cheaper than today. Why did we have to wait three years, as the renminbi became more expensive, to pass a bill at a time when the next election is entering campaign stage? That is election year politics, plain and simple.

三年前，就在美國總統大選前，1美元還可以兌換7.5元人民幣。今天，1美元還換不到6.4元人民幣。如果我們想借人民幣被低估爭搶我們就業崗位之機來懲罰中國的話，我們早在三年前就應該這麼幹了，那時人民幣還比現在便宜15%。為什麼我們等了三年，等人民幣升值了，而且恰逢換界選舉之際才通過么這麼一個法案？這就是選舉年的政治手腕，就這麼簡單。

Our senators tell us that making Chinese currency more expensive will be good for China. China currently consumes only 35% of the goods and services it produces annually, while America consumes more than 70%t of U.S. gross domestic product. Forcing China to appreciate its currency, the argument runs, will enable the Chinese to consume more beef, corn, and gasoline, and the Chinese will be happier. To be honest, I am confused here. I thought elected officials were supposed to represent my interests and the interests of millions of American families trying to make ends meet by relying on inexpensive Chinese products. I didn』t know U.S. Senators were supposed to represent the interests of Chinese consumers. It is up to the Chinese government to make the Chinese happier. When billions of Chinese jump forcefully onto the consumption wagon, the prices of goods will become higher for struggling American families. Senators, be careful of what you wish for.

我們的參議員告訴我們，讓人民幣升值對中國也有好處。中國國內消費僅占其國內生產總值的35%，與些同時美國國內消費佔其GDP的70%以上。逼迫中國對人民幣升值，如果法案施行，這意味著中將消費更多的牛肉、玉米及汽油，從而使中國人民更加幸福。說實話，對此我很困惑。我以為民選官員應該代表我的利益以及億萬依賴中國廉價商品努力實現收支平衡的家庭。我不知道美國參議員還代表著中國消費者的利益。讓中國人民本應是中國政府的責任啊。當億萬中國人加入消費大軍，物價的上漲將使掙扎的美國家庭更加難以承受。參議員們，請三思而後行啊。

I am an economics professor at a great American institution, and I was educated at great American universities. Watching Washington making policies based on 「Washingtonomics」 really makes my head spin. Sometimes I wonder if I should check into an economics re-education camp to retrain myself. But as an American buyer, I really like China. I wish all economics textbooks could be rewritten so that all buyers and sellers would behave exactly like America and China. That would be a wonderful world!

我是美國知名學院的經濟學教授，我曾在美國著名大學接受教育。看到華盛頓基於華盛頓經濟學制定政策真的讓我很頭痛。有時我在想，我是不是應該參加一個經濟補習班進修一下。但作為一個美國買家，我真的很喜歡中國。我希望所有的經濟學教科書重新改寫，以使所有的買家賣家都像美國和中國一樣。那樣世界該多美好啊！