一場民粹主義對精英政治的反叛

Donald Trump Is Elected President in Stunning Repudiation of the Establishment By PATRICK HEALY and JONATHAN MARTINNovember 9, 2016

唐納德·J·特朗普,從房地產開發商到電視真人秀明星的他周二接近當選美國第45任總統。

Donald John Trump was elected the 45th president of the United States on Tuesday in a stunning culmination of an explosive, populist and polarizing campaign that took relentless aim at the institutions and long-held ideals of American democracy.

唐納德·約翰·特朗普(Donald John Trump)於周二當選美國第45任總統,這場激烈的、民粹主義的和兩極分化的選舉無情地衝擊著體制與美國民主長久以來的理想,如今到達了驚人的頂峰。

The surprise outcome, defying late polls that showed Hillary Clinton with a modest but persistent edge, threatened convulsions throughout the country and the world, where skeptics had watched with alarm as Trump』s unvarnished overtures to disillusioned voters took hold.

之前最後的民意調查表明希拉里·柯林頓(Hillary Clinton)將會佔據微弱但是持續的優勢,這一驚人的結果與之完全相悖,令全國乃至全世界都面臨動蕩的威脅——自從特朗普對失望選民做出的直白表態生根發芽之時,全世界的懷疑論者們便開始警惕地觀望。

The triumph for Trump, 70, a real estate developer-turned-reality television star with no government experience, was a powerful rejection of the establishment forces that had assembled against him, from the world of business to government, and the consensus they had forged on everything from trade to immigration.

現年70歲的房地產開發商與電視真人秀明星特朗普沒有執政經驗,儘管從商界到政界的權威力量團結起來一致反對,他仍然成功當選,這是對這些權威力量的強烈否定,也是對他們在從貿易到移民等一切領域所達成的共識的否定。

The results amounted to a repudiation, not only of Clinton, but of President Barack Obama, whose legacy is suddenly imperiled. And it was a decisive demonstration of power by a largely overlooked coalition of mostly blue-collar white and working-class voters who felt that the promise of the United States had slipped their grasp amid decades of globalization and multiculturalism.

這些結果不僅是對柯林頓的否定,也是對貝拉克·奧巴馬總統的否定,他的政治遺產突然之間便陷於危險境地。這是決定性的力量展示,來自一個很大程度上被忽略的聯盟,他們大多是藍領白人和工人階級投票者,他們覺得經歷了幾十年的全球化與多元文化主義,美國的美好前景已經不在他們自己的掌握之中。

In Trump, a thrice-married Manhattanite who lives in a marble-wrapped three-story penthouse apartment on Fifth Avenue, they found an improbable champion.

在特朗普這個結過三次婚、住在第五大道一套外面裝飾著大理石的三層頂層豪華公寓的曼哈頓人身上,他們找到了一個看似不太可能的捍衛者。

Trump』s strong showing brightened Republican hopes of retaining control of the Senate. Only one Republican-controlled seat, in Illinois, fell to Democrats early in the evening. And Sen. Richard Burr of North Carolina, a Republican, easily won re-election in a race that had been among the country』s most competitive. A handful of other Republican incumbents facing difficult races were running better than expected.

特朗普的強勁表現讓共和黨保住參議院的控制權的希望變得光明起來。傍晚時分,只有伊利諾伊州州一個原本由共和黨把持的席位落入民主黨之手。在一場競爭激烈程度在全國名列前茅的爭奪中,北卡羅來納州共和党參議員理查德·布爾(Richard Burr)輕鬆贏得連任。其他幾名面臨艱難爭奪的在職參議員的表現也都好於預期。

Trump』s win — stretching across the battleground states of Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania — seemed likely to set off financial jitters and immediate unease among international allies, many of which were startled when Trump in his campaign cast doubt on the necessity of America』s military commitments abroad and its allegiance to international economic partnerships.

特朗普的獲勝——貫穿搖擺州佛羅里達、北卡羅來納、俄亥俄和賓夕法尼亞——看上去可能會引發金融動蕩,並在國際盟友中立即引發不安。當特朗普在競選活動中對美國在海外的軍事承諾,以及對國際經濟夥伴關係效忠的必要性提出質疑時,不少盟友大吃一驚。

From the moment he entered the campaign, with a shocking set of claims that Mexican immigrants were rapists and criminals, Trump was widely underestimated as a candidate, first by his opponents for the Republican nomination and later by Clinton, his Democratic rival. His rise was largely missed by polling organizations and data analysts. And an air of improbability trailed his campaign, to the detriment of those who dismissed his angry message, his improvisational style and his appeal to disillusioned voters.

宣布參選時,特朗普發表了一系列令人震驚的言論,稱墨西哥移民是強姦犯和罪犯。從參選的那一刻起,特朗普作為一名候選人就普遍被低估了。先是被反對他獲得共和黨提名的人低估,後來又被民主黨競爭對手柯林頓低估。民調機構和數據分析人士大多忽略了他的崛起。一種不太可能的感覺一直跟隨著他的競選,給那些對特朗普的憤怒言論、即興風格和對大失所望的選民的吸引力不以為意的人造成了不利影響。

He suggested remedies that raised questions of constitutionality, like a ban on Muslims entering the United States.

他提出的解決方法有違憲之嫌,比如禁止穆斯林進入美國。

He threatened opponents, promising lawsuits against news organizations that covered him critically and women who accused him of sexual assault. At times, he simply lied.

他威脅對手,發誓要對批評他的新聞機構和指控他性侵的女性提起訴訟。有時他乾脆撒謊。

But Trump』s unfiltered rallies and unshakable self-regard attracted a zealous following, fusing unsubtle identity politics with an economic populism that often defied party doctrine.

不過,特朗普魚龍混雜的集會和不可動搖的自我欣賞引來了熱情追隨,把明顯的身份政治與常常違背共和黨信條的經濟平民主義結合在一起。

His rallies — furious, entertaining, heavy on name-calling and nationalist overtones — became the nexus of a political movement, with daily promises of sweeping victory, in the election and otherwise, and an insistence that the country』s political machinery was 「rigged」 against Trump and those who admired him.

他的集會喧鬧熱烈,充滿娛樂效果,充滿辱罵和國家主義色彩,成為一場政治運動的焦點,每日承諾在大選和其他方面取得壓倒性勝利,還堅稱美國的政治機器遭到「操縱」,用於反對特朗普及其讚賞者。

He seemed to embody the success and grandeur that so many of his followers felt was missing from their own lives — and from the country itself. And he scoffed at the poll-driven word-parsing ways of modern politics, calling them a waste of time and money. Instead, he relied on his gut.

他似乎代表著很多追隨者感覺自己生活中和這個國家所缺乏的成功和輝煌。他嘲笑現代政治受選票驅使、言辭謹慎的方式,說那是浪費時間和金錢。相反,他依靠的是自己的膽量。

At his victory party at the New York Hilton Midtown, where a raucous crowd indulged in a cash bar and wore hats bearing his ubiquitous campaign slogan 「Make America Great Again,」 voters expressed gratification that their voices had, at last, been heard.

他的勝選派對在紐約城中央希爾頓酒店(New York Hilton Midtown)舉行,付費吧台旁人聲鼎沸,大家的帽子上都印有他那句無處不在的競選口號:「恢復美利堅的偉大榮光」。參加派對的選民表示滿意,因為他們的聲音終於被聽見了。

「He was talking to people who weren』t being spoken to,」 said Joseph Gravagna, 37, a marketing company owner from Rockland County, New York. 「That』s how I knew he was going to win.」

「他是和無人理會的人們講話,」現年37歲、來自紐約州羅克蘭縣,擁有一家營銷公司的約瑟夫格·拉瓦尼亞(Joseph Gravagna)說。「因此我知道他會贏。」

For Clinton, the defeat signaled an astonishing end to a political dynasty that has colored Democratic politics for a generation. Eight years after losing to Obama in the Democratic primary — and 16 years after leaving the White House for the U.S. Senate, as President Bill Clinton exited office — she had seemed positioned to carry on two legacies: her husband』s and the president』s.

對柯林頓來說,這場失敗意味著一個曾讓一代人的民主政治變得多姿多彩的政治王朝以驚人的方式畫上句號。距離在民主黨初選中輸給奧巴馬已經過去了8年——距離在比爾·柯林頓(President Bill)總統卸任之際離開白宮進入美國參議院已經過去了16年——她此前看似有可能將兩種傳承發揚光大,那是她丈夫的傳承,也是總統的傳承。

Her shocking loss was a devastating turn for the sprawling world of Clinton aides and strategists who believed they had built an electoral machine that would swamp Trump』s ragtag band of loyal operatives and family members, many of whom had no experience running a national campaign.

對於由柯林頓的助手和策略師組成的龐大團隊而言,她這場令人震驚的失敗是一個毀滅性的轉折,他們本以為自己打造出了一部選舉機器,可以完爆特朗普麾下那群由忠誠的工作人員和家庭成員組成的烏合之眾——其中很多人都沒有過組織全國性競選活動的經驗。

On Tuesday night, stricken Clinton aides who believed that Trump had no mathematical path to victory anxiously paced the Jacob K. Javits Convention Center as states in which they were confident of victory, like Florida and North Carolina, either fell to Trump or seemed in danger of tipping his way.

柯林頓的助手們曾經認為論票數特朗普絕無勝算,卻在周二晚上嚴重受挫,他們在雅各布·K·賈維茨會議中心(Jacob K. Javits Convention Center)內焦急地走來走去,眼瞅著他們本以為十拿九穩的那些州——比如佛羅里達和北卡羅萊納——或者被特朗普拿下,或者看起來有被他拿下的危險。

Clinton watched the grim results roll in from a suite at the nearby Peninsula Hotel, surrounded by her family, friends and advisers who had the day before celebrated her candidacy with a champagne toast on her campaign plane.

在附近的半島酒店(Peninsula Hotel)的套房裡,柯林頓盯著出現在屏幕上的慘淡結果,身邊環繞著家人、朋友和顧問。 前一天,這些人曾在競選專機上為她的競選舉杯慶賀。

But over and over, Clinton』s weaknesses as a candidate were exposed. She failed to excite voters hungry for change. She struggled to build trust with Americans who were baffled by her decision to use a private email server as secretary of state. And she strained to make a persuasive case for herself as a champion of the economically downtrodden after delivering perfunctory paid speeches that earned her millions of dollars.

但柯林頓作為候選人的弱點一次又一次地暴露了出來。她沒能讓渴望看到改變的選民興奮起來。她無法取信於因為她在擔任國務卿期間決定使用私人電郵伺服器而深感困惑的美國人。她在通過發表敷衍了事的有償演講賺取了數百萬美元之後,也難以有力地證明自己可以捍衛在經濟上受到壓迫的那些人。

The returns Tuesday also amounted to a historic rebuke of the Democratic Party from the white blue-collar voters who had formed the party base from the presidency of Franklin D. Roosevelt to Bill Clinton』s. Yet Hillary Clinton and her advisers had taken for granted that states like Michigan and Wisconsin would stick with a Democratic nominee, and that she could repeat Obama』s strategy of mobilizing the party』s ascendant liberal coalition rather than pursuing a more moderate course like her husband did 24 years ago.

周二的選舉結果還代表著白人藍領選民對民主黨做出的歷史性的駁斥,從富蘭克林·D·羅斯福(Franklin D. Roosevelt)到比爾·柯林頓當政期間,這些人一直都是該黨基礎選民的組成部分。但希拉里·柯林頓及其顧問想當然地認為,密歇根、威斯康星等州會堅決支持民主黨候選人,她可以再度使用奧巴馬用過的策略,動員該黨方興未艾的自由派聯盟,而不是像她丈夫24年前所做的那樣,尋求更為溫和的路線。

But not until these voters were offered a Republican who ran as an unapologetic populist, railing against foreign trade deals and illegal immigration, did they move so drastically away from their ancestral political home.

然而,當一名以毫不掩飾的民粹主義者姿態參加競選,痛斥外貿協議和非法移民的共和黨人現身時,這些選民徹底背棄了他們的政治籍貫。

To the surprise of many on the left, white voters who had helped elect the nation』s first black president appeared more reluctant to line up behind a white woman.

讓很多左翼人士感到驚訝的是,幫助選出美國第一位黑人總統的白人選民,似乎更不情願支持一名白人女性。

Uncertainty abounds as Trump prepares to take office. His campaign featured a shape-shifting list of policy proposals, often seeming to change hour to hour. His staff was in constant turmoil, with Trump』s children serving critical campaign roles and a rotating cast of advisers alternately seeking access to Trump』s ear, losing it and, often, regaining it, depending on the day.

在特朗普準備入主白宮之際,不確定性依然大量存在。他的競選團隊此前給出了一張多變的政策建議清單,看似一時一個樣。他的幕僚也時常變動,在競選團隊中扮演關鍵角色的是他的子女,顧問們則不斷輪替,他們會尋求向特朗普進言,卻也會失去這種資格,然後又常常重新獲得,一切都要視當天的運氣而定。

Even Trump』s full embrace of the Republican Party came exceedingly late in life, leaving members of both parties unsure about what he truly believes. He has donated heavily to both parties and has long described his politics as the transactional reality of a businessman.

即使是特朗普對共和黨的完全擁抱,在其生命中也姍姍來遲,這讓兩黨成員不確定他真正相信什麼。 他向雙方都做出過大筆捐款,並且長期以來將他的政治描述為一個商人的交易現實。

Trump』s dozens of business entanglements — many of them in foreign countries — will follow him into the Oval Office, raising questions about potential conflicts of interest. His refusal to release his tax returns, and his acknowledgment that he did not pay federal income taxes for years, has left the American people with considerable gaps in their understanding of the financial dealings.

特朗普的數十個商業活動中,有許多都在國外,它們將跟隨他進入橢圓形辦公室,從而引起了關於潛在利益衝突的問題。 他拒絕公開自己的報稅表,並承認他在好些年裡沒有支付聯邦所得稅,這讓美國人在理解其金融交易方面有相當大的窟窿。

But this they do know: Trump will thoroughly reimagine the tone, standards and expectations of the presidency, molding it in his own self-aggrandizing image.

但他們知道以下這些:特朗普將徹底重構總統的語調,標準和對這個職位的期望,並以他自己的自大形象塑造這一職位。

He is set to take the oath of office on Jan. 20.

他將於1月20日宣誓就職。


推薦閱讀:

中國特色社會主義的「特色」何在?
24本書主義
拉馬克主義死灰復燃?
梅洛-龐蒂|馬克思主義和迷信

TAG:政治 | 民粹主義 | 精英 | 民粹 | 主義 |