北京為何可能在2030年中美大對決中獲勝?
A Navy Hornet fighter takes off from the carrier USS John C. Stennis sailing in the South China Sea last month.
上個月在南中國海航行的約翰·C·史坦尼斯號航空母艦上一架大黃蜂戰機正在起飛。
Over the next 15-20 years, the U.S. and China are headed for a confrontation in the western Pacific, with Japan caught in the middle. And China, currently the underdog, could very well come out on top. That』s the unnerving conclusion of a new report by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank.
再過15至20年後，美國和中國會在西太平洋走向對抗，而日本將被夾於中間，中國現在不被看好，但很可能將最後獲勝，這個令人不安的結論來自卡內基國際和平基金會的智囊團在華盛頓發布的一份新報告。
The nine authors of 「China』s Military & the U.S.-Japan Alliance in 2030,」 released Thursday, stress that a full-blown shooting war is not in the cards. 「The threat is not a war with China,」 the report states. Rather, Washington and its close ally Tokyo could find themselves losing influence and disputed island territory to an increasingly unconstrained Beijing thatfinds it can 「win without fighting」 owing to a combination of its own military rise and its rivals』 relative declines.
這份由9個作者在周四發表的名為「2030年的中國軍隊與美日聯盟」的報告強調，一場全面的熱戰是不可能的，「這個潛在的威脅並不是與中國交戰，」報告指出，當然，華盛頓和它的親密盟友東京會發現它們自己失去了影響力並與日益不受約束的北京爭奪島嶼領土，而北京發現由於它自己的軍力上升和對手們的相對衰退這些綜合因素而能「不戰而勝」。
But Chinese 「victory」 in this projected 2030 conflict is not preordained. It』s also feasible the U.S. and Japan could 「win」 as their own armies and economies rally against a China dragged down by shrinking exports and demographic stagnation.
但是被預測的2030年的中國的「勝利」並不是註定不變的，也有可能美日會「贏」，尤其當他們自己的軍隊和經濟團結起來對抗被出口萎縮和人力蕭條拖累的中國時。
In any event, change of some sort is probably coming, the report authors say, although what change is unclear. The status quo –a western Pacific comfortably dominated by the U.S. with its aircraft carriers, bombers and Marine regiments, with Japan playing a key supporting role and China steadily adding to its military arsenal while biding its time — is 「unsustainable,」 they claim.
無論如何，某種類型的變化很可能正在到來，報告的作者說，儘管是何種變化還不明了。現狀是——西太平洋被美國運用航母，轟炸機和海軍陸戰隊得心應手地掌控著，在一起的日本扮演著著一個關鍵的配角，中國在韜光養晦中穩步的填充它的軍火庫——這「不可維持」，他們聲稱。
What follows are sketches of three possible scenarios from the report, representing two extremes plus a sort of strategic middle ground in the anticipated Great China-America Showdown of 2030.
下面是報告描述的三個可能的情節的簡述，代表預期中的2030年中美決戰中的兩個極端情況加一種戰略妥協狀態。
A Chinese jet fighter at a recent training exercise. Photo: via China Defense Blog
一架中國戰機在近期作例行訓練。
New World Order
國際新秩序
China』s 10-percent annual economic growth continues unabated despite high debt, an aging population and vexing ecological concerns. The People』s Liberation Army enjoys year after year of elevated spending. Its homegrown ships, planes and missiles get better and better alongside improving Chinese military doctrine, leadership and training.
儘管有高額債務，人口老化和令人煩惱的生態擔憂，中國10%的經濟年增長率繼續不減，人民解放軍年復一年享受著增高的費用，它的國產船隻，飛機和導彈越來越好，隨之改進的還有中國的軍事學說，領導能力與訓練水平。
But on the opposite side of the Pacific, the United States succumbs to its own internal problems. Economic growth slows to just 1.5 percent per year, leading to what the Carnegie experts describe as 「enormous downward pressures on U.S. defense spending and U.S. military deployments in Asia.」The stealthy F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, meant to rescue U.S. air power from obsolescence, instead falters, as does an ambitious program to develop a new, affordable stealth bomber. A shrinking American naval fleet runs low on floating sonobuoys used to detect the new and improved Chinese submarines pouring out of the country』s shipyards.
但是在太平洋的對面，美國屈服於它的國內問題，經濟增長慢得只有每年1.5%，導致了卡內基的專家所描述的「相當程度的壓低了美國的國防開支和美國在亞洲的軍事部署。」
鬼怪F35聯合打擊戰機，意味著從退化中挽救美國空軍，它代替了徘徊不定，而以一個雄心勃勃的計划去開發一個新的，負擔得起的隱形轟炸機。一個收縮的美國海軍艦隊缺乏浮標聲納去探測新改進型的中國潛艇駛出它的船廠。
Broke and demoralized, America retreats from the Pacific, leaving an equally struggling Japan to fend for itself against its powerful neighbor. Instead of ramping up its own military spending in order to confront China, Japan strikes a conciliatory tone with the world』s new Pacific hegemony.This worst-case (for Washington and Tokyo) combination of events is 「highly unlikely but not entirely inconceivable,」 according to the Carnegie report. But if they or similarly bleak circumstances come to pass, the Asia-Pacific in 2030 truly will belong to Beijing. 「Needless to say, this scenario would present an enormous potential for severe crises.」
破產和意志消沉，（使）美國從太平洋退出，留下一個仍在奮鬥的日本自生自滅去抗衡強大的鄰國，而不是增加它自己的軍費去面對中國，日本對太平洋的新霸主發出了緩和的聲調。
最壞的（對華盛頓和東京）組合事件是「高度不可能但不是完全難以想像，」按卡耐基的報告，但如果它們或類似的慘淡情形出現，2030年的亞太地區將屬於北京，「不用多說，這個情節會為嚴峻的危機展現一個高度的可能性。
The USS Nimitz carrier leads a Navy task force in a recent Pacific deployment. Photo: Navy
近期美國海軍尼米茲號航母率領一個海軍特遣部隊部署在太平洋。
America Rules
美國統治
The opposite extreme is an era of substantially increased U.S. presence in the western Pacific. For Washington and Tokyo, a stronger Asia-Pacific posture would result in 「a more stable long-term regional security environment,」 according to the Carnegie authors. Especially if American resurgence meets with a collapse in Chinese military capabilities and strategy.
相反的極端情況是一個美國在西太平洋的存在得到充分增強的時代出現，對美國和日本而言，一個更強硬的亞太立場能帶來「一個長期的更穩定的地區安全環境」，按卡耐基基金會的報告作者所言，尤其是如果美國的復甦正好碰上中國的軍力和戰略崩潰。
But this rosy scenario counts on a big boost in U.S. military spending, amounting to a full four percent of GDP — an assumption that itself hinges on a rapid economic recovery from today』s depressed levels plus a sustained high birth rate. In addition to more spending, the 「America-wins」 future assumes ideal outcomes across a wide range of military initiatives. The F-35 fighter and the new stealth bomber come in on time and on budget — and they both work as advertised. A U.S. plan to expand its naval fleet also proceeds without a hitch.
但是這個美好的情節依賴於美國軍費的大幅提升，意味著整整4％的GDP增加值————這個假設取決於它自己能從當今的經濟蕭條加上持續的高出生率中得到快速的經濟復甦，除更多的軍費之外，未來的「美國取勝」所假設的圓滿結局還涉及到一個大範圍的軍事主動性，F-35戰機和新型隱形轟炸機的及時參與與預算安排————它們應當象宣傳中那樣運轉，美國的艦隊擴充計劃也要沒有意外的困難。
At the same time, all the major trendlines towards a stronger and more assertive Chinese military would have to reverse themselves — and fast. The open spigot of weapons funding would have to close. Technologies already in development would have to fail. Training exercises currently growing more realistic would need to end or somehow get dumber.
同時，在所有主要的趨勢上都邁向更強大更自信的中國軍隊應該得到逆轉————而且要快，正在進行中的向武器傾斜的資金項目應該關閉，開發中的技術應該失敗，當前越來越切合實戰的訓練必須終結並以某種方式啞火。
In short, this outcome is unlikely. 「It is quite probable that the United States and Japan will lack the financial resources, technological capacity and political willpower necessary for such an ambitious military response, especially in the next 15 to 20 years,」 the report warns.
簡而言之，這個結果不太可能，「相當大的可能是美國和日本乏於財力，技術能力和政治毅力，那種有抱負的軍事回應是必須的，尤其在未來的15到20年內。」這份報告警告。
Middle Ground
妥協
So which scenario is probable? America does not collapse back into economic crisis but neither does yearly growth reach the three-percent threshold policymakers desperately hope for. China also enjoys moderate economic expansion sustaining continued improvement of its air, sea, land, space and cyber forces.Japan meanwhile navigates perilous domestic politics in order to somewhat increase its own military investment, resulting in a more powerful navy, a small number of stealth fighters for its air force and a naval infantry force modeled on the U.S. Marine Corps.
那麼哪一個情節是可能發生的？美國不會跌入經濟危機，也不會邁入決策者們夢寐以求的3%的年增長門檻，中國也享受著適度的經濟擴張並支持空軍，海軍，陸軍，太空和網路力量的不斷改善。
同時日本為了增加它的軍事投入航行於危險的國內政治之中，而有了一個更強大的海軍，少量的隱形戰機和一個模仿美國海軍陸戰隊建立的海軍步兵力量。
This 「slightly unstable」 scenario is the 「most likely」 of those studied,according to the experts. With relations between China and the U.S.-Japan alliance slowly eroding year on year, 「this situation would result in a greater likelihood of tensions and incidents」 compared to now. But the chance of major flare-ups, to say nothing of a shooting war, would be as remote as it is today.
專家稱，這個「輕度不穩定的」情節是那些研究中「最有可能出現的」，隨著中國和美日聯盟的關係年復一年慢慢被侵蝕，與現在相比，「這種狀態有引發一個更大的緊張情勢和意外事件的可能」，但是這種機會一閃即逝，更不必說熱戰了，它就象與今天面對的一樣遙遠。
This version of the western Pacific circa 2030 is also probably the best that anyone in Washington should hope for, given economic, cultural and strategic realities. It』s 「manageable,」 and its military balance still 「slightly」 favors the U.S, according to the report.
按專家的說法，這個版本的西太平洋2030也可能是華盛頓的任何人所希望的最好的，考慮到經濟，文化和戰略現實，它是「可控的」，而且它的戰略平衡仍然「輕度」有利於美國。
If the Carnegie experts are to be believed, the likely future of U.S.-Japanese-Chinese relations looks a lot like today, although more volatile. In that sense the think tank』s report could be mistaken for, well, accepted wisdom. It』s tempting to project current, short-term trends in straight lines over decades, although in reality today』s trends are often fleeting — and poor predictors of the future.
如果卡耐基的專家是可信的，那麼很可能未來的美日中關係看起來很象今天，儘管更加不穩定。在這層意義上智囊團的報告可能會被誤會，好，接受智者吧，設想當前是誘人的，短期趨勢呈直線已有數十年，雖然事實上今天的趨勢常常轉瞬即變——還有可憐的預言家。
It should not come as a surprise, then, if the seemingly unlikely fringe scenarios spelled out in the Carnegie report – both pro-U.S. and pro-China — look a lot more realistic in just a few short years. Between America and China, with Japan watching closely from the sidelines in the world』s new strategic center of gravity, the future could be a toss-up.
事情應該不會來得太突然，然後，如果表面上看來不太可能的附加情節在卡耐基的報告中講清楚——親美和親中的雙方——在短短的幾年中看上去更加現實，在美中之間，兼有日本從世界新戰略重心的邊線上密切的打望，未來可能真的是成敗各半。
評論翻譯:原創翻譯：龍騰網 http://www.ltaaa.com 翻譯：李阿土 轉載請註明出處論壇地址：http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-187866-1-1.htmlcaribis2 ? 5 days ago ?Or, advances in robotics and artificial intelligence drastically decreases the labor component in all manufactured goods while raising the relative cost of logistics. The movement of manufacturing back to the US and Europe erodes Chinese economic growth leading to social unrest and scaled back military budgets. The Chinese focus on building (literally) internal security forces from these new technologies as the elite fears its own people more than external countries.
Meanwhile, Japan retreats to a pre-Perry visit state in foreign relations as the nation completely devotes itself to creating a schoolgirl sexbot that can also take care of the elderly and the political right in the US decides a Skynet like defense system, the one that runs amok in the Terminator movies (not as it was originally envisioned,) is a good idea and devotes the entire defense budget to creating it.
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或者，機器人和人工智慧的進步會徹底減少在相關後勤成本上升時的所有製成品中的人力構成，製造業轉移回美國和歐洲將侵蝕中國的經濟增長，引起社會動蕩和軍事預算相應縮減，中國人專註於用這些新技術建設（按字面上講）國內治安力量，因為上層精英害怕它的人民更甚於外部的國家。
同時，日本回到佩里到訪之間的對外關係狀態（美國少將佩里1853年率艦隊到日本遞交要求日本打開國門的國書——譯註），作為一個國家，完全致力於去創造一個也能照料老人的女學生性玩偶，政治權力上美國會給它選定一個如同防禦系統的天網，就是在終結者電影里胡作非為的那個（不像它最初的設想），這是一個不錯的主意，日本應投入全部的國防預算建設它。
jaw111 > caribis2 ? 5 days ago ?
China is going to eclipse Japan as the world"s preeminent adopter of robotics in assembly lines, so get with the times.
作為世界卓越的裝配線機器人所有者，中國正在使日本相形見絀，所以要與時俱進。
trisul > jaw111 ? 3 days ago ?
China is also very populous. If China automates everything in sight, what will their workers actually do? After all, they need the employment, as well as rising salaries to bridge the gap. Will they be getting this for no work at all? Maybe for financing leisure time in which to develop various aspirations ... and will such aspirations be aligned with the aspirations of the Communist Party?
I think China, not only the US, is in for a bumpy time.
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中國也是人口眾多的，如果中國馬上讓所有事情自動化，他們的工人做什麼呢？畢竟，他們需要工作，還要提高工資去縮小差距，他們沒工作還能得到這些么？也許可以籌措資金在閑暇時間開發各種各樣的願望...這種願望與GCD的願望一致么？
我認為中國，不僅僅是美國，道路一樣是坎坷不平的。
PeteEllis > jaw111 ? 5 days ago ?
China"s robots are old and ill designed for the more modern industrial complex. They are little better than GM"s famously crappy robots of the 1980s
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中國為現代大工業設計的機器人又老又弱，他們只比通用1980年代著名的蹩腳機器人好一點點。
eriously Spain > PeteEllis ? 4 days ago ?
LOL, you"ve obviously never been to China.
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LOL，你顯然沒去過中國。
PeteEllis > Seriously Spain ? 4 days ago ?
I have but check out the robots Foxconn makes. They are right out of the 1970s. It may seem strange that the second largest economy in the world uses such inferior robots but they do. I am starting to think China does not have the technical acumen that it claims to have. They can"t even build their own military jet engines for some reason. something is wrong with the picture they are presenting to the world.
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我有去過，不過看了富士康製造的就離開了，他們是徹底的1970年代，看起來奇怪，世界第二大經濟體使用那種低級機器人，但他們確實如此，我開始認為中國並沒有他們聲稱的那種智能科技，由於某種原因，他們甚至造不出自己的戰機引擎，呈現給世人看的圖片中的某些事有問題。
Bob Baylor > Seriously Spain ? 4 days ago ?
All countries that aspire create a real and lasting off earth infrastructure (Primarily US, China, Russia, and most of Europe) need to UNITE with each other. That"s the only way it will seriously be done b/c it"s simply far to expensive and difficult otherwise. So, lets stop nit picking each others efforts and get to work!
所有有志於建設一個真正的地外基礎設施的國家（主要是美國，中國，俄國，以及歐洲多數國家）應當團結起來，那是邁向真正成功的唯一途徑，因為它可以避免昂貴和困難，所以，讓我們停止口水戰，努力工作吧！
geo prism > Seriously Spain ? 4 days ago ?
@seriously Spain and I was there for almost two years and took Chinese lessons. I"ve also been to almost every other country in Southeast and East Asia.
我在那裡上了差不多兩年中文課，我也去過東南亞和東亞的其它每個國家。
jaw111 > PeteEllis ? 5 days ago ?
China"s robots are 1/10 the cost of U.S. robots, and with redundancies built into due to low costs such at the efficiency advantage of US robots is completely negated.
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中國的機器人的成本是美國的1/10,低成本帶來了巨量的製造，這樣美國機器人在效能上的優勢完全無用了。
V H > jaw111 ? 3 days ago ?
They are 1/10 of the cost and it shows. China and quality cannot not be used in the same sentence
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他們是1/10的成本，而且它顯示，中國和品質不能不在相同的判決中被使用。（原文不通——譯者注）
PeteEllis > jaw111 ? 4 days ago ?
Foxconn"s robots are so retro. What"s up with that?
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富士康的機器人那麼落伍，那又怎麼樣呢？
wandmdave > PeteEllis ? 2 days ago ?
Why would China invest in robots? Human labor is cheap there.
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為什麼中國投資於機器人，那兒人力是便宜的。
－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－
phillip wong > caribis2 ? 5 days ago ?
What is more likely going to happen is the military-industrial complex will gradually die away.
What is most likely going to happen is the continuous raise in income of the China, until it reach, and exceed that of the US, with much of material, and physical well being than the average American. This, I think will come true within our lifetime.
As the rise of enterprise software, automation, makes the US workforce extremely productivity, and with cartelized industries, it also makes it extremely hard to generate jobs, and with a population is that extremely morally rotten, it also has very low human capital to actually be relevant.
What is most like going to happen is the fall of the US, and the rise of China. It sounds bad, but trust me, it is a good thing.
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此外更可能發生的事是軍工聯合體將逐漸沒落。
此外更可能發生的事是中國的收入持續的提高，直到它富得超過美國，隨之而來的是物質的量和身體的幸福平均而言都超過美國，這個，我想在我們的有生之年將成為現實。
因為企業軟體的增強和自動化，使美國的勞動力煥發出極大的生產力，隨著產業聯盟的形成，它也對產生工作崗位造成了極大的困難，隨著人口極度的腐化墮落，它也造成非常缺乏真正有用的人才資本。
此外最有可能發生的是美國的衰落和中國的崛起，聽起來很糟，但相信我，它是一件好事。
Hector Rivera > phillip wong ? 5 days ago ?
China and Morality? Don"t make me laugh too hard.
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中國和美德？不要笑死我哦。
jaw111 > Hector Rivera ? 5 days ago ?
America and morality? What about invading Iraq with WMD excuse and invading Afghanistan where Osama wasn"t even there?
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美國和美德？怎麼看待以大規模殺傷性武器為借口入侵伊拉克和入侵拉登根本不在那兒的阿汗富？
Hector Rivera > jaw111 ? 5 days ago ?
And you think China would be a better world power? Please!
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那麼你認為中國能成為一個更好的世界強權么？請！
PeteEllis > jaw111 ? 5 days ago ?
Hey 50 cent! Did you know that The United States secretly shipped out of Iraq more than 500 tons oflow-grade uranium dating back to the Saddam Hussein era in 2008, The U.S. military spent $70 million ensuring the safe transportation of 550 metric tons of the uranium from Iraq to Canada, The shipment, which until was kept secret until shipped, involved a U.S. truck convoy, 37 cargo flights out of Baghdad to a transitional location, and then a transoceanic voyage on board a U.S.-government-owned ship designed to carry troops to a war zone.
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嗨，五毛！你知道2008年美國從伊拉克秘密運出了500多噸可追溯到薩達姆時代的低品位鈾么，美軍花費了7000萬美元確保550公噸鈾從伊拉克安全的運送到加拿大，這次直到裝船都嚴格保密的運輸，涉及美國的載重卡車，37架飛離巴格達至過渡位置的貨運飛機，然後還有美國政府擁有的為運送部隊去戰區而設計的越洋航行的船隻。
jaw111 > PeteEllis ? 5 days ago ?
I"m not 50 cent you retard. Just because you have no argument against spics/hispanics/blacks dominating U.S. by 2050 and turning it into a third world playground doesn"t mean I"m a 50 cent idiot.
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我不是五毛，你悠著點。恰恰是因為你沒有爭辯去反對西班牙裔/拉美裔/黑人在2050年的時候控制美國，把它變成第三世界的遊樂場，這並不意味著我是一個五毛笨蛋。
PeteEllis > jaw111 ? 5 days ago ?
Does that make the Han Chinese the master Race then? What is a spics exactly?
4 △ 3 ▽
那使中國的漢族人成為了優等民族了嗎？西班牙裔究竟是什麼？
Heping > PeteEllis ? 5 days ago ?
Still cold war thinking. You are brainwashed and don"t see alternatives. Different races and cultures can and should co-exist!!!
7 △ 2 ▽
還是冷戰思維，你們被洗腦了而且看不到別的選項，不同種族和文化能且應該共存。
PeteEllis > Heping ? 4 days ago ?
Are you talking to me or the Chinese racial extremest jaw111?
He is the one who wrote "
Just because you have no argument against spics/hispanics/blacksdominating U.S. by 2050 and turning it into a third world playgrounddoesn"t mean I"m a 50 cent idiot."
2 △ 4 ▽
你在責罵我我或中國的種族極端主義者么， Jaw111？他是這樣寫的：恰恰是因為你沒有爭辯去反對西班牙裔/拉美裔/黑人在2050年的時候控制美國，把它變成第三世界的遊樂場，這並不意味著我是一個五毛笨蛋。
jaw111 > PeteEllis ? 5 days ago ?
Did Nazi Germany claim to be the Master Race based on IQ standards? Did it?
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納粹德國聲稱優等民族是基於智商標準的，是嗎？
PeteEllis > jaw111 ? 5 days ago ?
Yes it did?
4 △ 3 ▽
是的。
Karim1234 > PeteEllis ? 3 days ago ?
You"re a moron. Don"t even know your own history.
Quite embarrassing.
National socialists believed in the superiority of the "Aryan" Race, based on cultural and social achievements, not through IQ. Their weren"t even huge samples of IQ tests at the time to look at IQ differences.
If they did, I wonder what they would say when they saw that East Asian IQ is higher than White "Aryan" IQ? That would be funny!
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你是一個傻瓜，甚至都不懂自己的歷史。相當尷尬吧。納粹相信雅利安人的種族優越性，是基於文化和社會成就，不是通過智商，他們那時甚至都沒有大量的智商樣本去觀察智商的差異。如果他們是那樣，我奇怪為何他們說他們認為東亞人的智商高於白種雅利安人？真是滑稽。
PeteEllis Karim1234 ? 3 days ago ?Well, based on your comment they would not find that "East Asian IQ is higher than White "Aryan" IQ. Why? Because the United States Army started doing intelligence testing during WWI. The Nazi"s actually used American data in the 1930s and compared it to the Hitler youth. The U.S. Army tested all the races and ethnic types in the U.S. at the time of WWI
Any time you need an American History lesson just come on down to hot dog and hamburger town in Beijing and I will give you one.
好吧，基於你的評論他們將不會發覺「東亞人的智商高於白種雅利安人」，為什麼？因為美國軍隊從一戰期間就開始做智力測驗，納粹實際上在1930年代使用美國的數據去比對了那些希特勒青年，美軍在一戰期間測試了所有美國的種族。
任何時候你都需要上上美國歷史課程，就想去到北京的熱狗和漢堡中心我也可以給你一個
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