經濟學人：流淌在美加之間的大河

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A river runs through it

經濟學人：流淌在美加之間的大河

原刊：《經濟學人》6月2日刊

翻譯：鳳梨是只胖柯基

校閱：PC

圖源：網路，版權歸原作者所有

New treaty negotiations will test the health of Canadian-American relations

新的《哥倫比亞河條約》談判將考驗加拿大和美國之間的關係

THE last time Canada and the United States sat down to hammer out a deal over controlling the flow of the Columbia river, Dwight Eisenhower was president and John Diefenbaker prime minister. In those days, the two governments were eager to work together: they built the St Lawrence Seaway and set up the joint North American Aerospace Defence Command around the same time. Public acrimony like the insults Donald Trump has hurled at Canadian negotiators—he has called them 「very difficult to deal with」 and 「spoiled」 for refusing his demands for changes to the North American Free-Trade Agreement—would have been unthinkable.

上次加拿大和美國坐下來敲定一項關於控制哥倫比亞河流量的協議時，德懷特·艾森豪威爾是美國總統，約翰·迪芬貝克是加拿大總理。在那個年代，兩國政府渴望合作:他們建造了聖勞倫斯航道，並在同一時間建立了北美聯合北美防空防天司令部。而現在，唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)公開對加拿大談判代表辛辣地諷刺著，他稱加拿大談判代表「非常難以處理」，且「被寵壞了」，並因此拒絕修改北美自由貿易協定的相關要求。

The result of their talks was the Columbia river treaty, signed in 1961 and ratified three years later. The pact required Canada to construct three dams on the 1,954km (1,214-mile) long river. It also allowed the reservoir behind a dam that would be built in Montana in 1975 to extend into Canada.

上一次會談的結果是1961年簽署並在三年後實施的《哥倫比亞河條約》。該協議要求加拿大在長達1,954公里(1,214英里)的長河上修建三座大壩。它還允許在1975年在蒙大拿州修建大壩後的水庫延伸到加拿大。

In exchange, the United States agreed to pay $64.4m to Canada for improved flood control—in 1948 a flood had wiped out Vanport City, Oregon—and to return half of the additional electricity made possible by the smoother flow of the river. From 1973 to 2003, American utility companies bought back that power, called the 「Canadian Entitlement」. Since that deal expired, they have sent the electricity instead, worth anywhere from $120m-335m a year.

作為交換，美國同意向加拿大支付6440萬美元，以改善對洪水控制——1948年，俄勒岡州的萬波特市被一場洪水夷為平地——並返還了因河流的順暢而增加的電力的一半。從1973年到2003年，美國公用事業公司回購了這些能源，稱之為「加拿大權益」。該協議到期後，加拿大轉而向美國提供電力，每年價值1.2億至3.35億美元。

Not everyone benefited: the creation of one reservoir in Canada forced an estimated 2,500 people to move. On the whole, however, both sides have been pleased with the treaty. Whether it will remain in effect is up to Mr Trump—who in the past year has withdrawn from the Paris climate agreement and the nuclear deal with Iran.

並非所有人都從中受益:在加拿大修建一座水庫會迫使大約2500人搬遷。然而，總的來說，雙方都對條約感到滿意。它能否繼續生效取決於特朗普——他在過去的一年裡退出了巴黎氣候協議和與伊朗的核協議。

The river treaty』s current rules extend only until 2024. And in 2014, both sides gained the ability to terminate it outright with a ten-year notice period. As a result, following years of preparation, discussions began on May 29th to revise it.

《哥倫比亞河條約》的現行規定只延續到2024年。而在2014年，雙方都有能力在10年的通知期內直接終止協議。因此，經過多年的準備，5月29日雙方開始討論修改該法案。

Even before Mr Trump took office, the United States planned to seek a reduction of the Canadian Entitlement. The American side says that Canada has already been paid enough for building the dams, and that the deal raises electricity costs in north-western states. In 2013 America also said it wanted the treaty to have ecosystem protection as a third aim, alongside power generation and flood management. That could force Canada to do costly work on its dams to allow fish to pass.

甚至在特朗普上台之前，美國就計劃削減加拿大的權益。美國方面表示，加拿大已經為修建大壩支付了足夠的費用，而且該協議還提高了西北各州的電力成本。2013年，美國還表示希望該條約將生態系統保護作為第三個目標，與發電和洪水管理一起。這可能迫使加拿大在其大壩上進行昂貴的工程，以使魚類通過。

The Canadians politely disagree. They note that the treaty delivers myriad benefits to America, such as more predictable river navigation and supply of fresh water, and inflicts costs on Canada. Frequent adjustments of water levels reduce fish and bird populations, erode waterfront land and cause dust storms when reservoir bottoms are exposed. 「We never know whether we』ll have a swimming area,」 says Karen Hamling, the mayor of the village of Nakusp, who wants her town』s reservoir level fixed and compensation paid to its 1,600 residents. The formula used to calculate the entitlement does not take account of these effects. As for migrating fish, Canada argues that America had already blocked them with a dam built in 1942, and should thus have to pay for their reintroduction.

加拿大人禮貌地拒絕了這些提議。他們指出，該條約給美國帶來了無數好處，比如更可預測的航道和淡水供應，並給加拿大帶來成本。頻繁調整水位會減少魚類和鳥類的數量，侵蝕河道周邊的土地，並在水庫底部暴露時引發沙塵暴。納庫斯普村的鎮長凱倫?哈姆林(Karen Hamling)表示:「我們永遠不知道我們這塊是否會被水淹。」水庫利潤計算的公式沒有考慮到這些影響。至於遷徙的魚類，加拿大認為，美國已經在1942年建造了一座水壩來阻止他們，因此，他們應該為他們的再引進這些魚類買單。

The floodgates will not open if the talks fail. If no changes are made, Canada』s automatic flood-management duties would end in 2024. Afterwards, it would only have to act to prevent flooding if America requests aid, proves that its own storage facilities are full and provides compensation. If either party does pull out, the withdrawal could not take effect before 2028.

如果談判失敗，閘門將不會打開。如果不做出任何改變，加拿大的自動注水管理任務將在2024年結束。之後，只有當美國請求援助時，它才會採取行動防止洪水，證明它自己的儲存設施是滿的，並提供補償。如果任何一方退出，退出將在2028年之前生效。

Nonetheless, if Canada and the United States can no longer work together on river management, the prospects for collaboration on more contentious subjects look dim. Just as talks on the original Columbia river treaty, which began in 1944, marked the beginning of a warm era in their relations, so too might those on a successor deal indicate the end of one.

儘管如此,如果加拿大和美國在河流管理不再合作,各種爭議也會讓更多合作的前景越來越暗淡。正如最初的哥倫比亞河條約談判,始於1944年,標誌著一個溫暖的時代的開始，現在，可能標誌著結束的時候到了。

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