對話 | 奧巴馬首席反恐顧問莫娜科：恐襲後的悖論

本期對話奧巴馬首席反恐顧問、國土安全局顧問麗薩·莫娜科（Lisa Monaco）。莫娜科負責引導和研究反恐政策，預防和擾亂恐怖分子對美國的威脅。她的具體職責包括摧毀基地組織的核心成員以及在各地的基地組織附庸，引導擊潰伊斯蘭國的政策，以及建立預防和干擾恐怖威脅的合作網路。

川普上任後，美國政府的反恐戰略，總結起來有兩大特點。一方面，在國內邊境採取了反常的極端措施，比如川普備受爭議的 「穆斯林七國禁令」；另一方面，在海外維持了奧巴馬時期的傳統，持續對恐怖組織進行定點轟炸，比如在阿富汗針對 ISIS 發射的 「導彈之母」。然而，在國內邊境政策的劇烈變化真的有必要嗎？

據統計，近兩年來在美軍的空襲支持下，伊拉克政府軍漸漸奪回了 ISIS 在伊拉克境內控制的底盤，從 2014 年夏天 40% 的峰值，縮小到如今不到 7%。在敘利亞，ISIS 也逐漸失勢。「伊斯蘭國之夢」 已然破碎。現在的問題是，在美國國內的極端主義自殺性襲擊，源頭在哪兒？是否如川普所言，恐怖分子隨著大量難民入境，滲入美國？

芝加哥大學 CPOST（Chicago Project on Security and Threats），通過研究在過去 36 個月內被美國司法部（Justice Department）指控的從事伊斯蘭國恐怖活動的 125 個個體（包括發起自殺性襲擊身亡的恐怖分子個體。研究假設這些人如果沒有身亡的話，將會被司法部指控），得出了如下三個結論。

這樣看來，川普的行政命令並不一定有必要。更讓人擔憂的是，如今 ISIS 招募全球反美青年，正在利用川普的反穆斯林論調。 ISIS 用大量精心製作的小視頻，傳播他們的理念和反美敘事，其中就加入了不少川普在競選時對穆斯林世界的激烈言辭。美國當下激起的某種程度的反穆斯林情緒，反而成了 ISIS 最有效的招募材料。

對話文字

YANG: Hi.

向楊：你好！

LISA: Hi.

麗薩：你好。

YANG: I want to take a different stab [at this], and to be fair, terrorism, especially ISIS feeds on the oxygen of publicity. [LISA: Mhm.] And for me, I think that terrorism does not threaten the state, it does not threaten the economy unless we let them. It doesn"t threaten the basic liberal Western value unless we let them [LISA: Mhm.], but it seems like people have this overblown understanding or image of terrorism, especially ISIS, which focuses on publicity a lot, unlike Taliban or other terrorist groups. So my question is, to what extent is this overblown depiction of terrorism or terrorist attacks detrimental to the real work of counter-terrorism efforts [LISA: Mhm.], and what is the role of Homeland Security or the FBI to starve terrorism of this oxygen of publicity?

向楊：我想關於反恐說一個不同的看法。平心而論，恐怖主義，特別是伊斯蘭國（ISIS），他們對曝光度的依賴猶如氧氣。[麗薩：嗯。] 在我看來，恐怖主義並不威脅國家；恐怖主義也不威脅經濟，除非我們放任他們；恐怖主義也不威脅基本的西方自由價值觀，除非我們放任他們。[麗薩：嗯。]但人們現在似乎是談恐怖主義必色變，對恐怖主義的認識過於誇張，尤其是對很擅長博關注的伊斯蘭國，它不像塔利班或其他恐怖主義組織。所以我的問題是，在多大程度上，這種對恐怖主義或恐怖主義襲擊誇大其辭的描述會對反恐的實際工作造成阻礙？[麗薩：嗯。]還有，國土安全部門或聯邦調查局在遏制恐怖主義中應扮演怎樣的角色，從而讓恐怖主義呼吸不到曝光度帶來的氧氣？

莫娜科在白宮

LISA: So it"s a really good question and it"s something we"ve got to grapple with, right. I mean, this goes back a little bit to the point about the executive order, right, which is if we take steps that feed the recruitment narrative, we"re fueling that messaging and we shouldn"t be in the business of that. Look, the most basic definition of terrorism is to inflict terror on a civilian population, right, and so they win if we change our behavior as a result of what they do. So we"ve gotta keep that as our lodestar and not lose our values in responding to these terror attacks, but by the same token, as I said before, I think that we"ve got to be willing to demonstrate to the public the steps we are taking to address the threat, whether it"s to so-called "soft targets," like sporting events or train stations or airports, to be visible about the steps we"re taking, to give the public confidence. I"ll give you an example. I came from the Justice Department, as we"ve now said, after 15 years, plus years, being in the Justice Department, where my job was not to talk to the press or do anything public really, but to focus on the facts and the law, et cetera. So when I got to the White House and I had the folks in the White House communications office asking me to talk to people like Jim Sciutto, I said, "No, I don"t want to talk to the press." [LAUGHTER]

麗薩：這是個很好的問題，也是我們必須解決的問題。我是說，這個問題得回過去一點說說行政命令。（註：第 13769 號行政命令，《阻止外國恐怖分子進入美國的國家保護計劃》，是特朗普在 2017 年 1 月 27 日簽署並即刻生效的行政命令。該法令旨在禁止 7 個位於中東及非洲、且為穆斯林國家的人民入境美國，對擁有美國簽證或綠卡身份者也有效（已被豁免）；同時暫停難民接納項目 120 天，以及 90 天內禁止來自利比亞、伊朗、伊拉克、索馬利亞、蘇丹、敘利亞和葉門等 7 國國民入境美國，其中敘利亞的期限為 「無限期」。禁令最後被西雅圖聯邦法官詹姆斯?羅巴特（James Robart）於 2 月 3 日做出裁決，全國暫緩執行。）如果我們的對策增強了恐怖分子招募的敘事方式（註：特朗普的行政命令被認為增強了反穆斯林的敘事，有助於伊斯蘭國招募），那就助長了他們的氣焰，我們不應該那麼做。恐怖主義最基本定義就是，讓平民恐慌，對吧？所以他們能得逞，是因為我們按他們的行動而被動應對。所以我們必須把這點作為指導原則，同時不能在應對恐襲時丟掉我們的價值觀。（註：隱射特朗普的行政命令違背了美國包容的價值觀）但同樣的道理，正如我之前所說，我認為我們必須主動向公眾表明，我們目前採取的每一步應對措施，像應對所謂的 「軟性目標」，如體育賽事、火車站或機場等，都要讓公眾看到我們在做什麼，以提高公眾的信心。我舉一個例子。 我說過，我在司法部工作了 15 年多，我的工作不是與新聞界交談，也不負責公眾事務，而是專註於事實和法律等等。所以當我來到白宮時（指麗莎從司法部調到白宮擔任首席反恐顧問），白宮通訊辦公室的人讓我和吉姆·科普托（註：即現在台上的主持人，CNN 首席國家安全記者，報道所有關於美國國家安全的事務）等人談談。我說：「不，我不想和新聞界對話。」[笑]

JIM: —"why waste my time," right.

吉姆：—她說 「我幹嘛費那個勁？」

LISA: Or saying, well, you know, we"ve had this threat, this terrorist event or something, can you describe for the public or the press or somebody the steps we"re taking. And I was reluctant in that regard. But I found that how we communicate—not me, but others, and certainly the president—how we communicate about the steps we"re taking to address the threat is as much a part of the security job as running down every terrorist league. Because if the public doesn"t feel confident in the steps you"re taking, you"re gonna be feeding that unease that the terrorists want to have in the first place.

麗薩：或者我也可以選擇說，我們正面臨著這樣一個威脅，這類恐怖事件云云，你能給公眾或是新聞界或是誰描述一下我們正在採取的措施嗎？ 當時我不太願意那麼做。 但是我發現我們溝通的方式——不單是我，還有其他人，當然也包括總統，我們如何就當前所採取的反恐措施進行溝通，這的確也是安全工作的一部分。 因為公眾如果對你所採取的措施沒有信心，那你等於一開始就在滋養恐怖分子想要的那種緊張氣氛。

JIM: If I could just follow on that just in terms of the role of the media, when I was at ABC, I had a debate with president of ABC at the time—this is very recent, very soon after 9/11—when we had a habit, really, of every time Al Qaeda released a message, we"d put that thing on the air right away. [LISA: Yup.] I mean, they had a direct line from the caves of Afghanistan to the American people, and I said, "Why do we do that?" You know, if there"s news in it, why do we repeat the same crap over and over. [LISA: Yup.] And I remember saying to him that during the IRA days—the British used to use an actor"s voice for Gerry Adams, you know, at the time, the Sinn Fein leader, and I was like, let"s use the chipmunk"s voice for bin Laden [LISA: Yeah.], let"s just mess with him. [LAUGHTER] [LISA: Yeah.] Do you think that we—I kind of know your answer, I mean—

吉姆：容我再接著他的問題問兩句，就是說到媒體在反恐中的角色。我還在美廣新聞工作時，我和那裡的總裁進行了辯論——辯論就發生在 9/11 後不久。當時我們有個慣例，每次基地組織釋放信息，我們就馬上對其進行直播。[麗薩：是的。]就好比有一條通訊線，把他們在阿富汗藏身的洞穴和美國人民直接連起來了。我就問：「為什麼要這樣做？」 就這麼個消息而已，我們為什麼要一再重複它。[麗薩：是的。]我記得當時我對他說，在愛爾蘭共和軍那個時期，（註：Irish Republican Army, 簡稱 IRA,。是反對英國政府的武裝組織，長時間通過暴力活動實現政治訴求，故被許多國家視為恐怖組織）英國曾讓一個演員模仿格里·亞當斯（註：愛爾蘭共和派政客）的聲音，就是當時新芬黨的首領。（註：Sinn Féin，中文譯為 「我們」，是一個北愛爾蘭社會主義政黨，也是愛爾蘭共和軍的官方政治組織。該黨主張建立一個全愛爾蘭共和國）我當時就說，我們用花栗鼠的聲音模仿本·拉登[麗薩：沒錯。]搞亂他們。 [笑] [麗薩：沒錯。]那你認為我們——我好像知道你的答案，就是——

LISA: Yeah.

麗薩：沒錯。

JIM: —do you think we over-blow—not over-blow—but maybe over-cover the terrorism spread? But I also know you know what our job is [LISA: Yeah.], we gotta cover the news. Is there is a way that we could do it differently that would undermine the power of a group like ISIS?

吉姆：——那你認為我們是誇大了——不能說誇大——應該說是過度曝光了恐怖行徑嗎？我還知道，我們的工作就是[麗薩：是的。]，報道新聞。那有沒有一種不同的報道方式能削弱像 ISIS 這種組織的力量呢？

LISA: So I do think this is really hard, right. [JIM: Mhm.] And it became—it was most stark, I will tell you, it was a very difficult time, the summer of 2014, which in addition to the mounting campaign against—and coalition campaign against ISIS in Iraq and Syria, there were the horrible, devastating images coming out of Syria [JIM: Mm.] of Americans being killed, American hostages being beheaded, brutally. And I remember fuming at the TV in my office [JIM: Mhm.], that those videos were being—or that those images were being run. Understanding that it"s news, it was the worst type of news, it was horrific news. But you had terrorists with our brave citizens in orange jumpsuits—which I also think was also probably not an accident—getting their message out. [JIM: Mhm.] I think it was probably a real, legitimate struggle for news organizations, I don"t know. I wasn"t in those conversations. But I have since seen the change in not adding to ISIS"s messaging by curtailing the use of some of that footage. So I think that it"s really important to constantly be questioning how we may be feeding into their goals [JIM: Mhm.], and to be willing to adjust even if it means that somebody"s gonna switch off your channel.

麗薩：我覺得這真的很難。[吉姆：是的。]而且它變得——有一次特別明顯，我說下這個，那真是個困難時期，就是 2014 年夏天，當時越來越多的人反對，聯合起來反對 ISIS，在伊拉克和敘利亞都有。當時還有駭人的圖片從敘利亞流出，上面是美國人遇害[吉姆：是的。]美國人質被殘忍地斬首。我在辦公室的電視上看到時都氣炸了。那些視頻正在播放，那些畫面一幀幀播放。我知道那是新聞，是最糟糕的新聞，是可怕的新聞。但是，恐怖分子挾持了我們勇敢的公民，讓他們穿上橙色連身褲——我認為這或許不是巧合——他們在釋放信號。[吉姆：是的。]我覺得這可能是新聞機構真正合法的兩難抉擇，但也說不準。我沒參與那些對話。但那之後我就看到了變化，就是不要幫 ISIS 宣傳，通過刪減某些視頻片段。所以我認為，一定要不斷質問我們怎麼就讓他們得逞了。[吉姆：是的。]還要主動調整策略，即使這意味著有人可能會換台。

JIM: Yeah.

吉姆：沒錯。

特別鳴謝 Leon 的英翻中和字幕製作

向楊的微博：向楊Alan

「羊說」 名片及二維碼：

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