經濟復甦的4個徵兆

若是只看每天發布的各種經濟數據，你得到的結論將是各種各樣。從有些數據來看，經濟即將恢復。另一些則預示著經濟將持續低迷。專家們對最新信息的解讀各不相同，有人認為是牛市、有人認為是熊市、有人抨擊奧巴馬政策、也有人咒罵華爾街。

For the foreseeable future, there will be an aggressive hunt for two economic recoveries. One is the technical improvement in economic indicators that signals the economy is growing again. That"s the one economists care about, which is why they scour the numbers on retail sales, business inventories, purchasing manager sentiment, subatomic inflation, the mood in Shanghai, and anything else that could help pinpoint the exact inflection point for a turnaround.

在可預見的未來，人們將會積極找尋兩個經濟復甦。其中之一是技術進步，這是預示經濟恢復增長的一個重要經濟指標。經濟學家們尤為關心這點，這也就是為什麼他們想從零售業銷售狀況、商品存貨數量、採購經理的情緒、細微的通脹、上海的經濟氛圍等各種數據中找出能準確定位何時經濟會復甦的徵兆。

The other recovery, the one that most consumers are waiting for, is the one in which companies stop firing and start hiring, banks return to normal lending, and families stop worrying about jobs and income. And that turnaround—the consumer recovery—is likely to take much longer to materialize than the technical recovery.

另外一個，大多數消費者們期盼的，就是公司停止解僱開始招工、銀行開始恢復普通貸款、人們不用再擔心丟工作或者收入減少。而這個復甦，即消費者復甦，要比技術復甦更加的直觀。

The danger of hyping a technical recovery is that it will arrive, with much fanfare—but fail to make ordinary consumers feel better off. Many economists, for example, are predicting that the recession will officially end by this summer or fall. The only problem is that when a technical recovery begins, a lot of companies fail to get the memo. They don"t play along; they keep payrolls lean and maybe even continuing to lay off workers. So to guard against false optimism, here"s how to tell when a real recovery is finally kicking into gear:

技術復甦的到來可能雷聲大雨點小，帶有欺騙性，普通的消費者可能並沒有感覺生活有好轉。例如，很多經濟學家預測經濟低迷到這個夏天或者秋天就能夠結束，但事實卻非如此。唯一的問題是，當技術復甦開始時，很多公司沒有意識到。他們沒有跟上節奏，他們不僅降低工人工資，有的甚至還在解僱工人。所以為了不謊報軍情，這裡告訴大家什麼時候才最終意味著復甦開始了。

Unemployment improves. The single best indicator of the health of the economy is the job market. People who have lost their job, or worry that they might, obviously hoard their money and don"t spend. That spells doom for an economy driven by consumer spending, as ours is. But once it"s clear that jobs are coming back, consumers are more likely to relax and open their wallets.

就業增加。經濟是否健康的最簡單也是最好的指示器就是工作市場。已經丟掉工作或者擔心丟掉工作的人，顯然存的多花的少。那將意味著作為經濟動力的消費的降低，就如同我們目前的狀況。一旦就業開始好轉，消費者顯然將會增加消費。

Projections about unemployment should make anybody queasy about the prospects for a recovery this year. The unemployment rate is currently 9.4 percent, a steep rise from one year ago, when it was an unremarkable 5.5 percent. And by most accounts, it"s going to get worse. The International Monetary Fund expects the U.S. unemployment rate to be 10.1 percent in 2010. Economist Gary Shilling thinks unemployment will hit 11.4 percent and not peak until late next year.

有關失業情況的預期可能讓所有人對於今年經濟能否復甦持懷疑態度。失業率從去年5.5%猛增到現在的9.4%。而且根據統計，情況越來越糟。國際貨幣基金預測美國2010年失業率將達到10.1%。經濟學家Gary Shiling認為失業率最高可能達到11.4%，並持續到來年。

It"s hard to imagine a "recovery" in which jobs are even more scarce than they are now. When the unemployment rate finally starts to go in the other direction, we can start to think about putting the umbrellas away. Until then, no number of upticks or volume of optimistic talk will persuade Americans worried about their jobs that they should part with precious cash.

在工作機會越來越匱乏的現在，很難想像會有「復甦」的跡象。當失業率開始降低時，我們才能相信情況開始好轉了。除非股價上升或者大量的樂觀言論出現，否則別想說服美國人不再擔心丟掉他們的工作從而沒有現金收入。

Housing prices stabilize.This has become a mantra by now: For the economy to get healthy, housing prices must stop falling. Problem is, the houses haven"t been listening.

房價穩定。有一句話現在已經成了咒語：想要經濟健康，房價必須止跌。但問題是，這個咒語沒有效果。

Housing matters for two reasons: It represents a big chunk of the economy, and it"s the largest single repository of Americans" household wealth. With prices falling, buyers are scarce, since nobody wants to buy an expensive good today if it"s going to be worth less tomorrow. With few buyers, all the other economic activity that swirls around real estate—remodeling, appliance and furniture sales, relocation services—is depressed. Homeowners are worse off, too, because the value of one of their vital assets is eroding.

房子問題有兩個原因：它在經濟總量中所佔比例很大，而且它是美國家庭財富最大的單一保障。當房價降低，會買房的人很少，因為沒人會花大錢買明天就貶值的東西。而隨著買房者的減少，圍繞著不動產的其他經濟活動就會減緩，如重建、傢具購置、裝修服務等。有房者的情況也會變糟，因為他們主要資產之一的房子的價值正在貶值。

House prices have already fallen by 32 percent nationwide from the 2006 peak. And they have further to go. The latest readings on the S&P/Case-Schiller home price index, one prominent measure, showed another record decline in May. At some point, the declines will moderate and stop being records. But prices need to stop falling altogether, and probably rise, for a real recovery to happen. The Federal Reserve thinks home prices could stop falling in 2010, after a total decline of 41 to 48 percent. Other metrics, like housing starts and new-home sales, might point upward before then. Those will be signs of signs of a turnaround, not the real thing.

全國房價從2006年攀到頂峰至今，已經跌了32%，而且這個狀況還將持續。最近的標準普爾指數和凱斯-席勒指數（一個顯著的評估方法）顯示5月的跌幅又創下了一個記錄。但總的來說，當經濟復甦真的來臨之時，房價不僅需要停止下跌，而且還要有可能回升。聯儲認為在2010年房價將停止下跌，屆時總跌幅將介於41%至48%之間。其他指標，像開始供房和新房出售等，都可能會在經濟復甦前上升。那些都是預示經濟復甦的信號的信號，不能作數。

Household wealth increases.The housing bust and the volatile stockmarket have hammered the traditional investment tools that most Americans use, causing epic declines in the wealth of Americans. Since 2006, household net worth has declined by about $12 trillion, which equates to about $107,000 of lost wealth for each of America"s 112 million households. That"s partly because of the 40 percent plunge in the stock market since October 2007 and partly because of the steep declines in real estate values.

家庭財富增長：房市破產和股票價值蒸發嚴重打擊了美國人傳統的投資工具，導致了美國財富的大規模縮水。自2006年以來，美國家庭凈資產已經減少了大約120億美元，這就意味著全美國1.12億個家庭每戶損失將近10.7萬美元。其中一部分是因為股票市場自2007年十月以來下跌了40%，另一部分是因為不動產的劇烈貶值。

Americans simply own less, too. Home equity for the typical homeowner is just 41.1 percent, a record low. In 2002, it was 58.4 percent. Owning less means we owe more and will have to rebuild savings before we can spend like we used to. "This will be a drag on all discretionary purchases," says Dirk van Dijk, an analyst at Zacks Investment Research who thinks the tightfistedness will cut into the earnings of firms ranging from hotel chains to furniture makers to motorcycle manufacturers. Those are the same kinds of companies that need to start hiring again for a real recovery to develop. But they won"t if sales stay sluggish. A turnaround will require sustained stock market gains and an end to the housing bust.

美國人擁有的財富也減少了。一個典型的有房者資產凈值僅為41.1%，是歷史最低。在2002年，這個值是58.4%。擁有的財富減少意味著我們欠的更多了。我們需要先恢復儲蓄，然後才能像原來那樣消費。「這對自由消費是個障礙。」 Dirk van Dijk說。這位Zacks投資研究所的分析師認為消費的減少將影響到旅店企業的收入，並將影響到其相關產業，如傢具製造商和摩托車製造商等。在真正的經濟復甦到來時，那些相同情況的企業勢必要開始招人。如果銷售情況仍然不樂觀的話，他們是不會開始招人的。復甦需要持續的股票收益，並要結束房市崩潰態勢。

President Obama stops fudging on the economy.There"s still a lot that could go wrong, and Obama knows it. Yet part of the president"s job is to reassure skittish Americans, even as his economic lieutenants are fighting battles in the war room. That"s why Obama has been making half-hearted pronouncements, like saying that the economy shows "some return to normalcy" and that "we expect there"ll be some stabilization of the economy." Virtually all of Obama"s remarks on the economy contain modifiers and future tense and a not-quite-there-yet quality, since he"ll blow his own credibility if he tries to convince Americans that they"re better off than they actually are. When Obama starts hedging less, be happy. That will signal better days. Finally.

總統奧巴馬不再對經濟狀況胡言亂語：奧巴馬知道還有很多問題可能導致事情往壞的方向發展。儘管他的經濟助手在作戰時忙於各種戰鬥，總統職責的一部分是安定美國人的激動情緒。這就是為什麼奧巴馬做了那麼一個並不太熱情的聲明，就好像說經濟顯示「有些已經恢復了常態」和「我們期待經濟將保持穩定」。事實上奧巴馬關於經濟的言論都是經過修飾的，是將來時，是不切實際的。因為他在試圖讓美國人確信他們比實際上過得要好時經常用他個人信用作擔保（而不是實際的數據）。什麼時候奧巴馬那種模稜兩可的言論減少了，那將是好事情。最終那將是經濟好轉的信號。

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