Why Italy』s troubled economy is returning to form為什麼義大利的糟糕經濟迎來了春天？

05-17

來自專欄 LynnTra 經濟學人翻譯

The Economist explains

《經濟學人》論道

Why Italy』s troubled economy is returning to form

為什麼義大利的糟糕經濟迎來了春天？

The country is benefiting from the broader upswing in Europe, though

political problems loom

義大利正受惠於歐洲廣泛的經濟上行，儘管政治問題隱現

The Economist explains

Sep 13th 2017 by J.H. | ROME

THE Italian economy is experiencing an unexpectedly strong recovery. The latest good news came on September 12th with the release of figures showing that the national unemployment rate had fallen 0.4 percentage points during the second quarter to 11.2%. The day before, the government』s statisticians reported a 4.4% year-on-year increase in industrial output. Currently Italian GDP is growing at 1.5% a year. That is still modest—less than the 2.2% being achieved by the euro zone as a whole. But the gap has been narrowing. Is the Italian economy, which for years has been a brake on the progress of the single-currency area, at last getting back up to speed?

義大利的經濟正在經歷著出人意料的強勢回升。根據9月12日發布的數據，該國失業率在第二季度下降了0.4個百分點至11.2%，這是最新的利好消息。就在前一天，政府統計員也彙報了該國工業產量與去年同比增長了4.4.％。眼下，義大利國內生產總值（GDP）年漲幅為1.5%。這個數字不算大－少於目前歐元區整體的2.2%，但是差距正在縮小。是不是義大利的經濟－這個多年來單一貨幣區前進的剎車，終於開始解剎提速了？

Italy』s prime minister, Paolo Gentiloni of the centre-left Democratic Party (PD), said

the rise in industrial production 「would have been unthinkable only two years ago」. But he might just as validly have chosen a much longer time span: the Italian economy has been wallowing in the shallows for almost two decades. It repeatedly grew more slowly than other European economies in the good times and shrank faster in the bad ones. The financial and euro crises of 2008-11 made things a lot worse. But the underlying problems, which include low productivity, too few big corporations, sky-high public debt, a fragmented banking system, limited competition, slow civil justice and underfunded, underperforming universities, were all handicaps before.

義大利的總理，來自中左派民主黨（PD）的保羅·真蒂洛尼（Paolo Gentiloni），說本國工業產量的增加「僅僅兩年前都是不可想的」。不過，如果他把這個期限放得更長遠的話更加妥當：義大利的經濟在差不多過去二十年里都是泥菩薩過江、沙灘上打滾（滑）。經濟好的時候，它總是上升得比其它歐洲經濟體慢；不好的時候，又縮水得快。2008年到2011年的金融和歐元危機導致情況大幅惡化。當然本國自身的問題，包括：生產力低下、大型企業緊缺、國債高築、銀行系統支離破碎、競爭有限、公務司法效率低下且資金不足、高等院校資質不佳，這些短板以前就存在了。

These structural defects persist and make it hard to be unequivocally optimistic.

Most economists agree Italy is, to a large extent, benefiting from the broader upswing in Europe. It has long depended heavily on exports, and Germany and France are its biggest customers. But important changes have been introduced. A state bail-out in July of Italy』s oldest bank, Monte dei Paschi di Siena, and the rescue of two lenders in the Veneto region has left the financial sector looking much healthier. The banks have also begun offloading a mountain of bad loans. Oxford Economics, a think-tank, calculates that deals so far announced suggest €60bn-70bn ($72bn-84bn), or about a third of the total, can be sold off by the end of the year. That in turn should encourage bankers to lend more freely, spurring further growth.

這些結構性缺陷的存在很難讓人明確樂觀地看待義大利經濟。多數經濟學家都認同，義大利在很大程度上是得益於歐洲廣泛的經濟上行。該國經濟長期以來都嚴重依賴出口，德國和法國是其最大客戶。但個中還是發生了一些重要變化。今年7月對義大利最老銀行－西亞那銀行（Monte dei Paschi di Siena）的國家紓困以及兩位出資方對威尼托（Veneto）大區的援救使得該國金融界看起來健康很多。各家銀行也開始清理成山的不良貸款。根據智囊機構牛津經濟研究院（Oxford Economics）的計算，目前已公布的交易意味著600-700億歐元 (720-840億美元)、或約1/3交易可在年底出清變現。那反過來會鼓勵銀行更自主地放貸，由此進一步刺激經濟。

Arguably, the biggest potential snag is not economic, but political. Structural reforms usually anger vested interests. They need governments with agreed programmes and stable majorities, able to weather temporary unpopularity. Italy』s next election, which has to be held by May, is likely to produce anything but. After being mauled by the Constitutional Court, the electoral laws—one for each of the houses of parliament—are based largely on proportional representation. Unless new rules can be agreed before

next spring (and there is no real sign yet that they can), the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S) should win 25-30% of the seats. Since the M5S refuses to co-operate with any of the mainstream parties, it could force the formation of a government that includes disparate elements of the right and left. The most likely alternative on current poll showings is a conservative minority coalition including Silvio Berlusconi』s Forza Italia party, the protectionist Northern League and a smaller party with its roots in neo-fascism. The chances of such a government agreeing on a liberal reform agenda are remote.

但可議的是，最大的潛在障礙不在經濟，而在政治。結構改革往往會惱怒到既得利益集團。他們需要在政府中達成議定項目、獲得穩定多數，以此度過短期內的不得人心。將必須于于明年5月舉行的義大利下屆大選有可能一無所獲。選舉法在被憲法法院修改後（選舉法分別對應議會兩院），很大程度上都基於比例代表制。除非在明年春季前達成新法規（目前看來沒有實際跡象表明他們能做到這一點），否則反對建制的五星運動黨（Five Star Movement－M5S）就有可能贏得25-30%的席位。由於該黨（M5S）拒絕和任何主流黨派合作，它可以推動成立一個包括左右不同黨派成員的政府內閣。根據目前民調現實，最有可能的方案是促成一個保守的少數派聯盟，包括西爾維奧.貝盧斯科尼（Silvio Berlusconi）的前進義大利黨（Forza Italia），保護主義的北方聯盟黨（Northern League）以及一個植根於新法西斯主義的小黨派。而讓這樣的內閣就自由改革議程達成一致，幾率萬分渺小。

英文鏈接：https://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2017/09/economist-explains-10