中國製造2025-美國的痛處

www.latimes.com

China unveiled its plan to dominate the worlds most crucial technologies with little international fanfare（號角）, another vague, guiding principle in the labyrinth（迷宮，難事，錯綜複雜） of Communist Party bureaucracy.

Three years later, its at the core of a trade dispute with Washington that threatens to upend（翻倒，倒放，使顛倒） the global economy.

Made in China 2025 is a blueprint for transforming the country from a labor-intensive economy that makes toys and clothes into one that engineers advanced products like robots and electric cars. The Trump administration views it as an attempt to steal U.S. technology and control cutting-edge industries.

「中國製造2025」是一個產業升級的藍圖。目的在於把中國經濟由製造玩具、衣服等勞動密集型的（低端）產業轉變到設計、製造諸如機器人、電動汽車等高端產業。川普政府視之為企圖竊取美國的科技並控制前沿行業。

Officials aimed to temper（使緩和，使回火|to make something less harsh or unacceptable, especially by adding something to it.其實這裡翻譯成「阻礙」比較合適。） the initiative this month when they announced potential tariffs on $50 billion in goods. But Chinese leaders consider the plan key to the countrys development and refuse to alter its course.（一國之計豈會因他國的阻撓而改變既定方針）

"China is trying to achieve a clear goal and America wants to stop it," said Andrew Polk, co-founder of Trivium/China, a Beijing research firm. "And thats where the competition is."

Heres what China 2025 is all about and what it means for the trade war:

Whats the objective?

The plan funnels（to supply money or goods to a person or organization，not directly but by using another person， organization， or system；原意是漏斗，此處可以理解為投資） billions into 10 industries, everything from biopharmaceuticals to aerospace and telecom devices. It calls for 70% of related materials and parts to be made domestically within a decade. A separate document details Chinas strategy to lead in artificial intelligence by 2030.

Officials modeled Made in China after a German initiative called Industrie 4.0, which envisions greater automation in manufacturing and "intelligent factories" that operate with wireless sensors. They didnt have much choice. The worlds biggest population is aging and rising wages are sending low-tech factories to other countries.

人口老齡化（人口紅利逐漸消失），薪資成本逐漸升高，低端產業向外國轉移。

"The labor supply is decreasing," said Ashley Qian Wan, China economist for Bloomberg Economics in Beijing. "And thats going to be a big problem for China."

Why does China care about this so much?

When President Kennedy vowed in 1961 to send a man to the moon, more than 30 million people in China had just starved to death. Peoples Republic founder Mao Tse-tung closed universities for a decade while researchers invented the Internet in Silicon Valley. China sees itself as simply trying to catch up.

我們真的只是在迎頭趕上而已。

The country developed its first bullet train last year, a 248 mph vehicle named Fuxing, or rejuvenation. Engineers also built the countrys first homegrown jetliner, an initial step toward filling Beijings crowded airport with planes from China rather than Americas Boeing or Europes Airbus.

Officials portray the initiative as transparent and open to foreign companies. They dispel（消除） notions that it will monopolize domestic markets. Americas dismissal of the plan reinforces a party narrative that the U.S. seeks to undermine Chinas resurgence（復甦，復興）.

"We have good reasons to question the legality and legitimacy of many actions taken by the U.S. on the grounds of national security, like its plan to impose high tariffs on many industries of Made in China 2025," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying told reporters this month. "Clearly, they are targeting something else."

外交女神華春瑩：從國家安全的角度來看，我們完全有理由質疑美國針對中國製造2025相關產業所徵收的高關稅的合法性。很明顯，他們另有所圖。

Why is the U.S. concerned about it?

The Trump administration frets（煩惱） about the way China aims to achieve its 2025 ambitions. American businesses have long complained about the sacrifices they make to operate in the worlds largest market, including requirements to partner with domestic companies and hand over trade secrets.

Officials fear these techniques will make it impossible for U.S. companies to compete in the worlds most critical fields. They also worry massive Chinese government subsidies will lead to a global glut（供過於求） of products that push down prices and hurt U.S. businesses.

"There are things China listed and said, Were going to take technology, spend several hundred billion dollars, and dominate the world," U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer told senators at a March hearing. "And these are things that if China dominates the world, its bad for America."

A lengthy U.S. report on Chinas intellectual property theft — which led to the most recent potential tariffs — mentioned the plan more than 100 times. Officials are exploring multiple ways to restrict Chinese investment in key industries. The administration recently banned ZTE, Chinas second-largest maker of telecom equipment, from buying American technology.

"Consensus（共識） is growing in Washington that the U.S. is in a race with China for technical leadership," Arthur Kroeber, managing director of Beijing research firm Gavekal Dragonomics, said he recently told clients. And some think "economic cold war is the answer."

華盛頓方面達成了共識：美國正與中國競爭科技方面的領導權。

國內也達成了共識：只有佔領了上游的高端產業，才能不被別人隨意地扼住咽喉。

Is the Trump administration right?

President Xi Jinping recently told a room full of global investors that China would further open its economy. Officials last week said they would phase out rules that require car manufacturers like General Motors to find a local partner before opening factories in China. They plan to end foreign ownership requirements on electric vehicle makers this year.

This wouldnt mark the first time authorities vowed to shed their protectionist shield. The European Union Chamber of Commerce in China complained last year that foreign businesses were suffering from "promise fatigue."

The problem is Chinas high-tech ambitions include "plans to use instruments such as subsidized credit and market access restrictions," said David Dollar, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former U.S. Treasury official in China. "It makes sense for the U.S. to oppose this practice."

But Chinese officials see an irony in efforts that try to maintain Americas chokehold（窒息，桎梏） on innovation. Hua, the Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, likened the U.S. to a "bully — only it can have high tech and others cannot."

外交女神華春瑩再次發聲：美國這樣的行徑跟流氓無異。只許州官放火，不許百姓點燈？

Neither side looks willing to bend. Recent talks to de-escalate the trade dispute reportedly collapsed over the 2025 plan.

"China views the overall system as inherently unfair because it was created by the current dominant power," Triviums Polk said. "America should stop complaining and start designing its own industrial policy to counter China."

目前，我們雖然受制於人。但是國家早就看到了這一點，所以提出了中國製造2025。

復興之路也許艱難，但，勢！不！可！擋！

下期預告：一帶一路為什麼能成功