「雙語幣讀002」佛系持幣才是最好的：為持幣辯護叫好

HODL On: In Defense of Bitcoins Best Strategy

佛系持幣才是最好的：為持幣辯護叫好

*本文從Coindesk 作者Steven Hopkins撰寫的文章翻譯而來

In 1987s Black Monday stock market crash, Sam Walton, the worlds richest man, lost more than half a billion dollars in a few hours. 1987年黑色星期一那一天，股市大崩盤的時候，世界首富山姆·沃爾頓在幾個小時之內就損失了超過5億美元。

When reached for comment, Walton said, "Its paper anyway. As far as Im concerned were focusing totally on the company doing well and taking care of our customers." 人們請他就此談談感想的時候，沃爾頓說，「錢么，反正都是紙。至於我呢，全心全意只關心我的公司，它運轉良好，讓客戶滿意，這就夠了。」

History of the #HODL

佛系持幣的歷史

In bitcoins volatile and roller coaster past, "HODL" was the meme that bound the cryptocurrency community together. It stood for the proposition that we all believe in the future of bitcoin. Its both funny and insightful. 在比特幣變化無常、大起大落的歷史裡，「佛系持幣」這個口號把玩數字貨幣的人團結到了一起，這個口號代表著大家對比特幣的前途和未來的信仰，真是又好玩兒又深刻。

[生詞簡釋]

proposition ：（表達判斷或意見的）陳述, 主張; 論點

Here is the original post by GameKyuubi on a Bitcoin Talk forum (spelling errors and profanity included):

我把GameKyuubi在Bitcoin Talk論壇上發布的原始帖子轉錄如下（拼寫錯誤、髒話一概保留）：

I AM HODLING

我，佛系持幣

I type d that tyitle twice because I knew it was wrong the first time. Still wrong. w/e. GFs out at a lesbian bar, BTC crashing WHY AM I HOLDING? ILL TELL YOU WHY. Its because Im a bad trader and I KNOW IM A BAD TRADER. Yeah you good traders can spot the highs and the lows pit pat piffy wing wong wang just like that and make a millino bucks sure no problem bro. Likewise the weak hands are like OH NO ITS GOING DOWN IM GONNA SELL he he he and then theyre like OH GOD MY ASSHOLE when the SMART traders who KNOW WHAT THE FUCK THEYRE DOING buy back in but you know what? Im not part of that group. When the traders buy back in Im already part of the market capital so GUESS WHO YOURE CHEATING day traders NOT ME~! Those taunt threads saying "OHH YOU SHOULD HAVE SOLD" YEAH NO SHIT. NO SHIT I SHOULD HAVE SOLD. I SHOULD HAVE SOLD MOMENTS BEFORE EVERY SELL AND BOUGHT MOMENTS BEFORE EVERY BUY BUT YOU KNOW WHAT NOT EVERYBODY IS AS COOL AS YOU. You only sell in a bear market if you are a good day trader or an illusioned noob. The people inbetween hold. In a zero-sum game such as this, traders can only take your money if you sell.

標題我打了兩次，第一次錯了，第二次……算了，管它呢愛誰誰隨便了。女朋友跟別的女人混去了，比特幣大跌，我還持幣持！持！持！持！有！個啥勁兒？我來跟你講講清楚！因為啊，操盤我就是個白痴，這點我清楚得很，白痴！你們這些個高智商操盤的，哪裡高了哪裡低了，這那那這，叮叮咣咣，一會兒工夫億萬銀子就這樣到手啦，嗯嗯，妙得緊好得很。同樣的，弱雞是怎麼弄的呢，我描摹一下，就是 —— 啊呀呀跌跌……跌了我趕緊賣了呀啊呀呀—— 然後呢，等那些個腦子靈光的，知道自己幾斤幾兩的聰明貨色抄底買回來了，弱雞又一副 —— 天啦嚕我怎麼這麼蠢啊我真是弱爆了。所以吧，你們猜猜？我反正不是這種人。那些聰明貨色買回來的時候，我還在市場裡頭，沒賣，騙誰呀你？騙炒短線的嗎？沒～騙～倒～我～啦。你們瞅瞅那些個挖苦人的帖子，裡頭都是「哎呀呀你怎麼沒賣呀，早賣了多好呀」呵呵謝謝了不用了，唉我是該賣呀，我要是能趕在別人賣出以前賣，趕在別人買入以前買，那該多好呀，哪能人人都像您這麼聰明絕頂吶！在熊市裡也敢賣賣賣，您如果不是特會炒短線的，就是個門都沒入，滿腦子幻覺的新韭菜啊！如果這兩種人都不是，就該老老實實持幣。在（比特幣）這種賭局裡頭，你獲益別人受損，你受損別人獲益，你只有賣了，別人才能拿走你的錢呀。

[生詞簡釋]

w/e：俚語。whatever的縮略。隨便吧。

day trader：《英漢大詞典》：當天買賣投機者。近似於漢語里常說的「炒短線的」

zero-sum：《英漢大詞典》：賭賽勝負雙方一方得益引起另一方損失的, 得失所系的

so ive had some whiskey

actually on the bottle its spelled whisky

w/e

sue me

(But only if its payable in BTC)

嗯我喝多了，喝了一些威士忌

這瓶子上「士」長得跟「土」似的

不管啦隨便吧

有本事就來乾死我啊

（干我可以，不過僅限比特幣支付）

[點睛]

這個帖子是樓主喝醉以後寫的，有著典型的口語化風格，又自帶醉酒後迷迷糊糊的語氣。

「HODL」原本是「HOLD」這個詞拼錯了，意外流行起來，成了英語幣圈的流行語。漢語對應詞「佛系持幣」，並沒有錯別字，所以翻譯時，略作處理。

英語裡面，「威士忌」有兩個拼法，whiskey和whisky。都正確，只不過不同地方習慣不一樣。漢語裡面

「威士忌」只有一個寫法，所以我們翻譯成「瓶子上「士」長得跟「土」似的」。這位樓主為什麼這麼在乎瓶子上的單詞呢？因為他喝醉了胡思亂想呀。

「sue me」是個俚語，直譯是「來告我呀」，有一種挑釁的口吻，類似於「老子偏這樣你們想拿我怎麼辦」的意思。翻譯時改成漢語里通用的「來乾死我啊」。從前文我們可以看出，樓主提出「佛系持幣」這個理念的時候，口氣可是很大的，不怕得罪人，最後來一句，你們愛誰誰，有本事乾死老子啊，前提，比特幣支付。這樣霸氣的帖子，成了眾人膜拜的神帖，也是情理之中了。順便說一句，這個俚語有很多個同義說法，不過都不太雅，有興趣者查閱Urban Dictionary即可。

It only took 11 minutes for this post to become a meme that became the rallying cry for the entire crypto world. We were all on the same rollercoaster ride and GameKyuubi, in the depths of his frustration, had (sort of) elegantly articulated both what it feels like and the best trading strategy for an asset this volatile.

才過11分鐘，這個帖子就風靡了整個幣圈，「佛系持幣」四個字成了人人拿來打氣的口號。我們都一樣，在同一個比特幣過山車上面大起大落。這位叫GameKyuubi的樓主，經歷了最痛苦焦慮的日子，才這麼精準地表達出了我們的感覺，也指明了面對這麼變化無常的資產，到底採取什麼交易策略最好。

[點睛]

rallying cry ：又說war cry，韋氏：a slogan used especially to rally people to a cause

Buy and HODL.

這個策略就是 —— 買完就忘，佛系持幣。

The good traders

優秀的操盤手

GameKyuubi was wrong about only one thing: There arent any good traders.

GameKyuubi 只說錯了一件事：其實沒有哪個操盤手真的優秀。

There are lots of us who believe we are good traders. But we arent. Of course, some of the loudest voices on Reddit regularly remind us about how well they time the market. Except when they dont time the market well.

我們當中有很多人相信我們自己在操盤上是一把好手，但其實，我們不是。Reddit論壇上面那些個喊的最凶的人，老是在我們面前展示，他們預判市場價格漲跌，時間掐得多麼准。只不過他們掐得不準的時候就不出來展示。

A paper published last October by the Haas School of Business at UC Berkeley entitled "Do Day Traders Rationally Learn About Their Ability?" used nearly 15 years of stock market day trading data to conclude that all day traders are irrational, the vast majority of day traders lose money, and even when day traders are successful, they "irrationally attribute success disproportionately to their ability rather than luck."

去年10月，加州大學伯克利分校哈斯商學院發表了一篇論文，題為「短線操盤手對他們的能力有理性的認識嗎？」這篇論文利用了將近15年的股票市場短線交易數據，從中得出結論，所有的短線操盤手都是非理性的，他們當中的絕大多數：虧錢；即便是他們賺到了，沒虧錢的時候，他們也「感性地把自己的成功大部分歸功於能力，而不是運氣」

This sounds exactly like the crypto trader. Any post you see mocking HODL is likely someone who thinks they are really smart because they made money by trading crypto last year.

這個結論聽著也適用於炒幣的。你看到的那些嘲笑佛系持幣的帖子，樓主一般都覺得他們聰明著呢，為什麼？因為他們去年炒幣賺到了錢。

Of course, their success was due to their unique trading ability and not the fact that the entire market rose like a rocket.

當然了，他們會覺得，自己成功了，是因為自己操盤操得好，跟當時整個環境一飛衝天的牛市無關。

[點睛]

注意這句話是過去時，所以翻譯時加了「當時」，指明是過去的牛市。

HODLing works

佛系持有真的可行

Still, empirically, even in volatile assets like bitcoin, carefully choosing an asset and holding long-term positions has proven to offer the best return. 其實，即便是投資像比特幣這樣大起大落的資產，謹慎地選擇資產、長期持有，也已證明能提供最佳的回報。

Warren Buffett, the most successful investor of modern times, has often said that he only invests in what he knows. His preferred holding period: forever. With that model, his company, Berkshire Hathaway, has averaged a 19 percent annual return since 1965 which means it has risen more than 1 million percent. 現代最成功的投資者，沃倫?巴菲特經常說，他只投資自己理解的資產。他喜歡持有多久呢：持有到永永遠遠。用這種模式，他手下的伯克希爾?哈撒韋公司，自1965年以來的平均年收益率為19％，這意味著它已經上漲了百分之100多萬。

Theoretical models that assume participants know when markets will move against them can offer better returns but, in practice, market movements cannot be reliably predicted so even when people like Bernie Madoff try to make us think that theyve figured it out, they havent. 理論上，一個參與市場投資的人，如果知道市場什麼時候會朝著他們不想要的方向變動，那他就能獲利更多。但實際上，市場的變動走勢，是無法可靠地預測到的。所以，即便是像伯納德·麥道夫這樣的人想叫我們相信他能預測到，其實也不行。

[小百科]

Bernie Madoff：伯納德·麥道夫，1938年4月29日出生於紐約，前納斯達克主席，美國歷史上最大的詐騙案製造者，其操作的「龐氏騙局」詐騙金額超過600億美元。

Long-term investment in quality assets remains the only reliable investment strategy.

長期投資優質資產，仍然是唯一可靠的投資策略。

Simply put, HODLing works.

簡而言之，佛系持有真的可行。

More possibilities

還有別的事兒可做

For those not interested in limiting their activity to HODLing, there are two new and useful ideas that have begun bouncing around that really do advance cryptocurrencies: #BUIDL and #SPEDN.

對那些不想只佛系持幣的人來說，還有兩個事情可以做，這兩件事又好玩又新鮮，大家都慢慢開始聊著了，還都能真正推動數字貨幣的發展，那就是：去創造、去消費。

[生詞簡釋]

bounce around，韋氏： to talk about (something, such as an idea) in an informal way in order to get different opinions about it

BUIDL has been used to help remind us that, in the words of a CypherPunks Manifesto, "Cypherpunks write code." In order for the blockchain to really be useful and valuable, we need to build stuff on it. Watching the price go up and down either as a trader or a HODLer does nothing to make bitcoin work better.

「去創造」的意思，就是提醒我們，用《隱密朋克的宣言》裡面的話講，「隱密朋克寫代碼」。要想讓區塊鏈真的有價值、有用處，我們得在它的基礎之上搭建東西。光是像個操盤手，或者持幣人一樣，看著比特幣價格漲漲跌跌，時起時落，是無益於比特幣發展的。

[點睛]

Cypherpunk 是cypher 和punk組合起來的，cypher的意思是加密、密碼學、密碼。這裡譯作「隱密朋克」。Cypherpunk一詞本來就是仿cyperpunk造出來的，我們用「隱密」，一方面強調「密」字，一方面也仿「隱秘」。「隱密」雖然不是現代漢語常用詞，但也不是生造詞。《漢語大詞典》「隱密」第二義「隱藏」，引《搜神記》卷十六例句。

A Cypherpunks Manifesto 是Eric Hughes於1993年寫的一篇著名文章，這裡加上了書名號。

這裡要多說一點Cypherpunk的意思。Wikipedia：A cypherpunk is any activist advocating widespread use of strong cryptography and privacy-enhancing technologies as a route to social and political change. 是支持密碼學技術、支持隱私保護、藉以推動社會進步的人。上海外語教育出版社《新牛津英漢雙解大詞典》解釋：a person who uses encryption when accessing a computer network in order to ensure privacy, especially from government authorities。這個英文解釋沒錯，但是漢語譯文說「（尤指政府部門的）加密上網者。」這就錯了。翻譯者誤以為英文解釋裡面的介詞from引介的是名詞person，誤以為是指明人的來源的，其實不是。這個from引介的是privacy，意思是「……以確保隱私不受ZF部門的侵害；確保隱私在ZF部門（的監控）之下也能得到保障」。

We need to create some of the promised applications that can really change the world. To date, the blockchain community has fallen short in this regard outside of the areas of payments but there are some real wins.

我們需要做一些有前途的應用，能真真正正改變世界的應用。目前，做區塊鏈的人除了在支付領域以外，在這方面還很欠缺 ，雖然已有些不錯的應用。

Just this weekend, Voatz, a Medici Ventures portfolio company is running party county convention voting in Utah, state convention voting in Michigan and state primary voting for overseas and military voters in West Virginia, all on a blockchain platform.

就在本周末，風投公司Medici Ventures 領投的Voatz投票平台，就支持了猶他州的黨代會投票，密歇根州的黨代會投票，還有西弗吉尼亞州海外與軍人選民初選投票，所有這些都在一個區塊鏈平台上進行。

Blockchain voting is a simple application, but it is one that can bring a much-needed security and transparency to elections. And we are doing it now.

利用區塊鏈投票，不是什麼很難的應用，但它可以給整個選舉流程帶來大家亟需的安全保障和透明度。正是我們要做、在做的。

SPEDN is a nod to the many of us who realize that, for bitcoin to be useful, we need to be able to spend it to buy things. And I mean everything. It really doesnt matter whether it is through second-layer solutions like lightning or forks like bitcoin cash; we need more ways to use cryptocurrencies in real-world transactions.

至於「去消費」，我們當中很多人都察覺到了，比特幣要想有用處，我們得能拿著它買東西，而且什麼都得能買。「去消費」這個口號肯定的就是我們這種想法。到底用什麼樣的輔助方案來解決不重要，閃電網路也好、像比特現金這樣的分叉幣也好；我們想在真實世界的交易里多多地使用數字貨幣。

A focus here, rather than complaining about HODLers would be helpful. We need many more merchants to accept cryptocurrency before it becomes useful. Options to spend bitcoin remain severely limited in most areas and this will ultimately limit bitcoins value.

與其抱怨持幣的人（光持有不花），我們不如把重點找對，這樣才有用。我們得讓越來越多的商家支持數字貨幣支付，這樣比特幣才能獲得用處。在大多數地方，商家還是不支持比特幣支付，這樣下去，到頭來會限制比特幣的價值。

As for me, I will HODL until I can buy useful stuff and SPEDN.

我呢，我會一直佛系持有，直到哪一天，我能拿它買點有用的東西，開開心心地花出去。

HODL on

堅「持」下去

This year has seen intense regulatory pressure on cryptocurrencies and its time we stop pretending that HODL was stupid. It isnt and it wasnt. Anyone who doesnt like the HODL mentality needs to give HODLers something else they can do with their bitcoins.

今年數字貨幣面臨了很多監管壓力，這時候我們別再掩耳盜鈴地說佛系持幣很傻了。佛系持幣從來都不傻。不喜歡佛系持幣的人，你們給那些持幣的指點指點，他們除了持有，還能做點別的什麼呢？

Trading is no solution for intelligent people. What we need are new ways to use cryptocurrency.

對聰明人而言，光是「能交易」打發不了他們的。我們需要數字貨幣的新玩兒法。 We need BUIDLers and merchants who will let us be SPEDNers. 我們需要人來創造，需要商家來支持，最終讓我們可以盡情消費。

http://weixin.qq.com/r/wyocBIrEUNcvrc5n93-R (二維碼自動識別)

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