2018.3.13經濟學人官譯：買票不買車

The impact on industry

Selling rides, not cars

Carmakers, tech companies and ride-hailing firms are all fighting for a piece of the action

對行業的衝擊

賣的是車票，不是車

汽車製造商、科技公司和網約車公司都在力求分一杯羹

IF YOU WANT to buy a fully self-driving car, you may have to wait for another decade. Autonomous vehicles will initially be offered for sale not to private owners but to robotaxi-fleet operators, for two reasons. First, LIDAR sensors are still so expensive that, deployed in production cars, they would cost more than the rest of the vehicle put together. For AVs in a robotaxi fleet, that is less of a problem, because vehicles will be operating, and thus generating revenue, throughout the day, whereas private cars are in use only about 5% of the time.

你若想買一輛全自動駕駛車，可能還得等上十年。無人駕駛汽車一開始會被賣給機器人計程車（robotaxi）運營商而非私人車主，有兩個原因：第一，激光雷達（LIDAR）感測器仍太過昂貴，部署在量產車中的成本比一輛車所有其餘部分的總成本還要高。但對於機器人計程車隊來說這就不是個大問題，因為它們從早到晚都在路上跑併產生收入，而私家車大約只有5%的時間上路行駛。

Second, getting AVs to work safely and reliably is much easier if their geographical range is limited to places that have been mapped in fine detail, such as city centres. So your first ride in an AV will be in a vehicle you hail using an app, not one you own.

第二，如果能把無人車的行駛範圍局限於城市中心這類已經被詳細測繪的地區，要讓它們安全、可靠地工作就會容易得多。所以，你第一次搭乘的無人車將會是用手機應用叫來的，而不是你自己的車。

Waymo, Alphabet』s AV effort, is testing a robotaxi service in Chandler, a suburb of Phoenix, and hopes to launch a commercial service later this year. Uber is operating driverless taxis in parts of Phoenix and Pittsburgh; users who hail a ride may find themselves being picked up by an autonomous car, supervised by an engineer (Uber gives riders the option to use an ordinary car instead if they prefer). Voyage, an AV startup, runs a robotaxi service in The Villages, a retirement community in San Jose, and is expanding to a second location, in Florida.

Navya, a French startup, is operating an eight-seater autonomous shuttle bus in downtown Las Vegas, with three stops along a 1km (0.6 mile) route. It also has shuttles running in several other cities around the world, as does Easymile, a rival French firm. Large-scale deployments of AVs are most likely to start with geofenced robotaxi services in parts of cities such as Singapore or Dubai, and then expand over several years, predicts Nikolaus Lang of BCG.

Alphabet旗下的無人車公司Waymo正在鳳凰城郊區的錢德勒（Chandler）測試機器人計程車，希望能在今年稍晚時推出一項商業服務。優步正在鳳凰城和匹茲堡的部分地區運營無人駕駛計程車。用戶在叫車後可能會發現來了一輛無人車，但會有一名工程師監控它（假如用戶要求，優步也提供了普通汽車的選項）。無人車創業公司Voyage在聖荷西的退休社區The Villages推出了機器人計程車服務，目前在向位於佛羅里達州的第二個地點拓展業務。

法國創業公司Navya正在拉斯維加斯市中心運營一種八人座無人駕駛通勤巴士，在總長一公里的行駛線路上共有三站。它在世界上幾個其他城市也推出了這種通勤巴士服務。它的競爭對手、另一家法國公司Easymile也一樣。波士頓諮詢公司（BCG）的尼古拉斯·郎（Nikolaus Lang）預測，要大規模地部署無人車，最有可能是從在新加坡或迪拜等城市的特定地理圍欄內運行的機器人計程車服務開始，在接下來幾年裡再進一步推廣。

It is likely to be many years before AVs are cheap enough for individuals to buy them, and capable enough to operate outside predefined, geofenced areas. Meanwhile, the roll-out of cheap robotaxis in urban areas might encourage many young urbanites, who are already going off car ownership anyway, to abandon it altogether.

The combination of ride-hailing and autonomous-driving technology confronts carmakers with 「the most profound challenge to their business models in a century」, declares a recent report from BCG. That is why carmakers are now piling into ride-hailing and car-sharing services and pushing on with their own AV programmes. In an autonomous future where ownership is optional, they need to be selling rides, not cars.

無人駕駛汽車要便宜到適合個人買，且有能耐在預先界定的、劃定地理圍欄的範圍以外的地區運作，很可能還需要許多年。與此同時，隨著便宜的無人計程車隊在都會區不斷擴張，原本就已經不大想買車的城市年輕人可能會完全打消買車的念頭。波士頓諮詢公司近期的一份報告寫道，網約車模式結合無人駕駛技術，讓汽車製造商的商業模式「面臨一個世紀以來最深刻的挑戰」。這就是為什麼如今汽車製造商爭相進入網約車和共享汽車服務領域，還要奮力發展自己的無人駕駛項目。在一個無人駕駛的未來里，買車已經不是必須，那麼這些公司要賣的就不是車而是車票了。

This shift offers carmakers a big opportunity. The car market is worth around $2trn a year globally, whereas the market for personal transport is worth as much as $10trn, according to Morgan Stanley, a bank. But it also exposes them to new competitors, in the form of technology companies and ride-hailing networks. Some carmakers have launched their own mobility services; others may prefer to act as fleet managers, providing capacity for ride-hailing operators and charging them by the mile. Some will even make 「white label」 fleets badged with the name of a city or a ride-hailing network, rather than their own brand.

這種轉變給汽車製造商帶來了一個巨大的機遇。摩根士丹利的數據顯示，目前全球汽車市場的價值約為每年兩萬億美元，而個人交通市場價值高達10萬億美元。但汽車製造商也遭遇新的競爭對手：科技公司和叫車網路。一些汽車製造商已經推出了自己的出行服務，另一些則可能更傾向成為車隊的管理者，為網約車運營商提供運力，按里程向它們收費。一些汽車製造商甚至將製造「貼牌」車隊——這些車不再使用自家品牌，而是貼著某個城市或某個叫車網路的名字。

Robotaxi fleets running around the clock will generate predictable yields that will appeal to institutional investors. Turning themselves into asset managers for such fleets would be a logical step for carmakers, whose finance arms are already involved in fleet management, says David Lesne of UBS.

晝夜不停行駛著的機器人計程車隊將產生可預期的收益，吸引到機構投資者。變身為這些車隊的資產管理者將是汽車製造商邁出的合理一步，它們的金融部門已經在參與車隊管理，瑞銀的大衛·萊內（David Lesne）說。

Pricing models for users will change, too: Uber is already testing telecoms-like monthly price plans in some cities, which include a certain number of rides or miles for a fixed price, just as a mobile calling plan offers a certain amount of calls, texts and data.

對用戶的收費模式也會改變。優步已經在一些城市裡測試類似電信公司使用的月付計劃：用戶每月支付固定價格，可獲得一定里程數或乘車次數，就像手機套餐包含特定的通話時長、簡訊數量和數據流量。

One big question is the effect of AVs on the number of vehicles sold worldwide per year, currently around 80m. Since most cars sit unused 95% of the time, switching to shared robotaxis that operate around the clock could greatly reduce the number of vehicles on the road. UBS reckons the global fleet size will halve by 2030 (see chart). But if robotaxis are in use 50% rather than 5% of the time, they will need to be replaced far more often, says Johann Jungwirth, chief digital officer of Volkswagen. So unless vehicle lifespans can be greatly extended, the number of new vehicles needed each year will rise.

一大問題是無人駕駛汽車對全球汽車年銷量的影響，這個數字目前約為八千萬輛。既然大部分汽車在95%的時間裡都停著不用，那麼改用終日運轉的共享無人計程車將極大減少路面上的車輛。瑞銀估計到2030年全球汽車存量將減小一半（見圖表）。但是，如果無人計程車有一半的時間（而不是5%）都在使用中，那麼它們更換的頻率就會大大提高，大眾汽車的首席數字官約翰·容維爾特（Johann Jungwirth）說。因此，除非汽車的壽命極大地延長，否則每年需要的新車數量將會增加。

Making vehicles reliably in large quantities is hard, as Tesla』s production problems have shown. 「The core expertise that we』ve had for decades is excellent manufacturing,」 says Ponz Pandikuthira, head of product planning for the European arm of Nissan. So even in a world of robotaxis, being a carmaker could still be a big business—just a different one from what it is today. After 130 years making hardware, says Mr Jungwirth, 「we need to take software and services just as seriously.」 That requires taking on new staff, retraining, acquisitions and partnerships. AVs will also accelerate the switch to electric vehicles, which have fewer components and need fewer assembly workers.

正如特斯拉的量產問題已經顯現的那樣，可靠地大批量生產汽車是有難度的。「幾十年來我們擁有的核心專長是傑出的製造能力。」日產汽車歐洲分公司的產品企劃主管龐斯·潘迪庫提拉（Ponz Pandikuthira）說。因此，即便是在一個機器人計程車的世界裡，汽車製造商仍可能擁有一筆大生意——只是和今天有所不同而已。容維爾特說，經過130年的硬體製造後，「我們需要同樣認真地對待軟體和服務」。這就需要僱用新人、再培訓、併購及合作。無人駕駛汽車的擴張也會加快向電動汽車的過渡，而電動汽車的部件更少，需要的裝配工人也更少。

Form follows function

功能決定外形

It will not just be carmakers that change shape; so will cars. Just as early 「horseless carriages」 resembled horse-drawn carriages, without the horse, most autonomous vehicles today are ordinary cars, retrofitted to drive themselves. But take away the need for a steering wheel and pedals, and AVs can assume a much wider range of shapes and sizes; Volkswagen』s Sedric and the Mercedes-Benz F015 are pods in which passengers sit facing each other. Future AVs may need to allow for some physical separation of passengers to encourage people to share vehicles with strangers, says Karl Iagnemma of nuTonomy, while families might hail a different vehicle that lets everyone sit together.

將要變形的不僅是汽車製造商，汽車也一樣。正如早期的「無馬馬車」的外形和馬車沒什麼兩樣——只是沒了那匹馬，今天大部分的無人駕駛汽車都是改裝普通汽車讓它們能自行運轉。但在不需要方向盤和腳踏板之後，無人駕駛汽車的形狀和大小選擇就可以多得多。大眾Sedric和梅塞德斯·賓士F015的外形接近一節火車車廂，乘客相對而坐。nuTonomy公司的卡爾·亞格涅瑪（Karl Iagnemma）說，以後無人駕駛汽車可能需要在乘客之間留出一些空間，讓大家願意和陌生人拼車，而一家人出行時就要召一輛能讓所有人擠在一起的車了。

All this is bad news for car dealers. Most are barely profitable now and make their money from car financing and servicing, so even a small shift from car ownership to shared robotaxis could hit them hard. Repair shops and partsmakers could also suffer, assuming AVs reduce the number of car accidents. Already, some parts suppliers are listing AVs as a threat to their future profitability in regulatory filings. Insurers would be hit hard by a fall in private car ownership and fewer accidents. Health-care providers and personal-injury lawyers would also suffer if there were fewer accidents, though few will feel sorry for them.

上述種種對於汽車經銷商而言都是壞消息。它們中大多數現在就已經很難賺到錢，主要靠汽車貸款和售後服務維持，因此，哪怕只是從買車向共享機器人計程車邁出一小步，都會給它們沉重的打擊。修車店和零部件生產商也會受到衝擊——如果我們假定無人駕駛汽車會減少車禍的話。一些零部件供應商已經在監管申報材料中將無人駕駛汽車列為對自身未來盈利能力的一項威脅。私家車數量和車禍的減少也將重擊保險公司。假如車禍真的減少，醫療部門和人身事故賠償律師也會受影響——雖然沒人會因此同情他們。

People who drive taxis, delivery vehicles and trucks are most directly threatened by AVs. Uber and Lyft say they will continue to need human drivers on some routes for years to come, but driving jobs might be redefined rather than abolished. Delivery drivers could be employed to manhandle large packages into customers』 homes. Truck drivers might become overseers of platoons of vehicles travelling on highways. And AVs will create new jobs for remote fleet supervisors and mobile repair workers.

計程車、送貨車和卡車司機是最直接受到無人車威脅的人群。優步和Lyft稱，未來多年裡它們的某些路線仍將需要人類駕駛員，但駕駛這項工作可能會被重新定義而非完全取消。送貨司機的主要任務會變成把大件包裹搬進客戶家中。卡車司機可能會變成高速公路上的車隊監控者。無人駕駛汽車還將創造出車隊遙控員和流動維修員這樣的新工種。

It already seems clear that AVs will cause the car industry and its adjacent businesses to change shape dramatically over the next couple of decades. But the consequences will not stop there. Like cars before them, AVs are sure to have far-reaching cultural and social effects too, most obviously in cities.

未來二三十年里，無人駕駛汽車將急劇改變汽車及相關行業的形態，這一點似乎已經很明確了。但其影響不止於此。正如其前身曾經所做的那樣，無人車必將帶來深遠的文化和社會影響。這一點在城市最為明顯。