Russia and America俄美關係

Courting Russia 一廂情願

Donald Trump seeks a grand bargain with Vladimir Putin.It is a terrible idea

特朗普想從普京這兒討到大便宜。這想法簡直糟透了

GEORGE W. BUSH looked into Vladimir Putin』s eyes and thought he saw his soul. He was wrong. Barack Obama attempted to 「reset」 relations with Russia, but by the end of his term in office Russia had annexed Crimea, stirred up conflict elsewhere in Ukraine and filled the power vacuum that Mr Obama had left in Syria. Donald Trump appears to want to go much further and forge an entirely new strategic alignment with Russia. Can he succeed, or will he be the third American president in a row to be outfoxed by Mr Putin?

小布希看著普京的眼睛，以為自己看透了普京的心。結果他錯了。奧巴馬試圖重塑俄美關係，可惜在他任期結束之時，普京已將克里米亞收進俄羅斯版圖，在烏克蘭別的地方鬧事，還在美軍撤離敘利亞並形成權力真空之後趁虛而入。而特朗普則更敢想，他要與俄羅斯打造全新的戰略同盟。他會成功嗎，還是會步前兩任美國總統的後塵，成為普京的第三位手下敗將？

The details of Mr Trump』s realignment are still vague and changeable. That is partly because of disagreements in his inner circle. Even as his ambassador to the UN offered 「clear and strong condemnation」 of 「Russia』s aggressive actions」 in Ukraine, the president』s bromance with Mr Putin was still smouldering. When an interviewer on Fox News put it to Mr Trump this week that Mr Putin is 「a killer」, he retorted: 「There are a lot of killers. What, you think our country』s so innocent?」

「雙普」戰線（特朗普與普京）的具體細節尚未明確，變數還會發生。特朗普親信間的意見不和，是其中的部分原因。即便是在特朗普派駐聯合國的大使都對「俄羅斯的侵略行動」表示「明確且強烈譴責」的時候，這位新總統與普京之間手足情誼依舊難捨難分。本周，一位福克斯新聞的記者當著特朗普的面將普京稱作「一個殺人犯」，特朗普反唇相譏：「哪裡都不乏殺人犯。怎麼，你以為咱們美國是有多麼清白？」

For an American president to suggest that his own country is as murderous as Russia is unprecedented, wrong and a gift to Moscow』s propagandists. And for Mr Trump to think that Mr Putin has much to offer America is a miscalculation not just of Russian power and interests, but also of the value of what America might have to give up in return.

身為一位美國總統，居然暗示在自己的祖國，死於非命的情況與俄羅斯不相上下，這可真是史無前例，太不應該了，簡直就是給莫斯科宣傳部門送了一份大禮。至於特朗普認為普京能夠幫美國大忙，這不僅是對俄羅斯實力及其利益的誤判，也是對美國可能因此而放棄的切身利益的低估。

The art of the deal meets the tsar of the steal

道高一尺魔高一丈（直譯：會做買賣的碰上會佔便宜的）

Going by the chatter around Mr Trump (see Briefing), the script for Russia looks something like this: America would team up with Mr Putin to destroy 「radical Islamic terror」—and in particular, Islamic State (IS). At the same time Russia might agree to abandon its collaboration with Iran, an old enemy for America in the Middle East and a threat to its allies, including Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. In Europe Russia would stop fomenting conflict in Ukraine, agree not to harass NATO members on its doorstep and, possibly, enter nuclear-arms-control talks. In the longer term, closer ties with Russia could also help curb Chinese expansion. Stephen Bannon, Mr Trump』s most alarming adviser, said last year that he had 「no doubt」 that 「we』re going to war in the South China Sea in five to ten years.」 If so, America will need allies, and Russia is a nuclear power with a 4,200km (2,600-mile) border with China. What』s not to like?

如果對特朗普周遭的聒噪之聲進行梳理的話，他為俄羅斯準備的劇本似乎是這樣的：美國將與俄羅斯為伍，一舉摧毀「極端伊斯蘭恐怖主義」，尤其是伊斯蘭國（IS）。同時，俄羅斯或許會同意放棄與伊朗開展合作。伊朗是美國在中東地區的宿敵，威脅著包括巴林和沙烏地阿拉伯在內的美國盟國。在歐洲，俄羅斯將不再為難烏克蘭，並同意不去騷擾家門口的北約成員國，並且，有可能的話，還將展開控制核武器的談判。從長期來看，俄美保持緊密關係還有助於遏制中國的擴張。史蒂芬·巴農是特朗普身邊最愛劍走偏鋒的顧問，他曾在去年表示，對於「美國將在5到10年之內在中國南海開戰」一事，他感到「深信不疑」。倘若當真如此，美國勢必需要盟國的支持，而俄羅斯不僅擁有核武器，還擁有4200公里（2600英里）與中國接壤的疆界。這難道還不夠好？

Pretty much everything. Russian hacking may have helped Mr Trump at the polls, but that does not mean he can trust Mr Putin. The Kremlin』s interests and America』s are worlds apart.

其實一無是處。俄羅斯黑客有可能在大選中對特朗普暗中相助，但這並不意味著，特朗普可以信賴普京。克里姆林宮的利益與美國利益可是背道而馳的。

In Syria, for example, Mr Putin makes a big noise about fighting IS terrorists, but he has made no real effort to do so. His price for working with America could be to secure a permanent Russian military presence in the Middle East by propping up Bashar al-Assad, whose regime was revealed this week to have hanged thousands of Syrians after two- or three-minute trials. None of this is good for Syria, regional stability or America. Even if Mr Putin and Mr Trump shared a common goal (they don』t) and Americans did not mind becoming complicit in Russian atrocities (they should), American and Russian forces cannot easily fight side by side. Their systems do not work together. To make them do so would require sharing military secrets that the Pentagon spends a fortune protecting. Besides, Russian aircraft do not add much to the coalition air power already attacking IS. Ground troops would, but Mr Putin is highly unlikely to deploy them.

比如在敘利亞，普京在打擊IS恐怖分子上鬧得動靜不小，但實際上，他並未動真格的。普京與美國的合作是有條件的，也許是為了通過支持阿薩德政權，確保俄羅斯軍隊可以在中東地區永久駐軍。而本周傳出的消息顯示，在阿薩德政權的統治之下，已經有數千名敘利亞人在僅僅兩三分鐘的審訊之後，就被定罪處死了。就算普京和特朗普擁有相同的目標（其實並沒有），美俄兩軍也很難並肩作戰。兩國的體制無法實現相互合作。要想兩軍合作，就必然會分享軍事機密，但五角大樓在保密方面可是下了血本的。此外，聯軍已經對IS發動了空襲，可俄羅斯戰機卻並未過多得參與其中。地面進攻亦有可能，但普京是絕不肯輕易出兵的。

Likewise, Russia is not about to confront Iran. The country』s troops are a complement to Russian air power. Iran is a promising market for Russian exports. And, most of all, the two countries are neighbours who show every sign of working together to manage the Middle East, not of wanting to fight over it.

同樣的，俄羅斯也不會與伊朗進行正面交鋒。伊朗的地面部隊是俄羅斯空軍的有益補充。伊朗也是俄羅斯商品理想的出口市場。而且，最重要的是，兩國在處理中東問題上志同道合，他們均試圖通過合作來解決爭端，而不希望通過武力來解決中東問題。

The notion that Russia would be a good ally against China is even less realistic. Russia is far weaker than China, with a declining economy and population and a smaller army. Mr Putin has neither the power nor the inclination to pick a quarrel with Beijing. On the contrary, he values trade with China, fears its military might and has much in common with its leaders, at least in his tendency to bully his neighbours and reject Western lecturing about democracy and human rights. Even if it were wise for America to escalate confrontation with China—which it is not—Mr Putin would be no help at all.

有人以為俄羅斯能成為美國對付中國的一個好夥伴，這種想法更加不切實際。俄羅斯遠不及中國強大，其經濟衰退，人口萎縮，裁軍不斷。普京既沒有實力也沒有意願要與中國鬧彆扭。相反，他很重視同中國的貿易，同時也害怕中國軍隊會和中國領導人一樣，總是想著對鄰國恃強凌弱，總是對西方教導他們的民主與人權嗤之以鼻。即便美國令中美對抗升級是明智之舉，普京也不可能出手相助，更何況這樣做其實根本就不明智。

The gravest risk of Mr Trump miscalculating, however, is in Europe. Here Mr Putin』s wishlist falls into three classes: things he should not get until he behaves better, such as the lifting of Western sanctions; things he should not get in any circumstances, such as the recognition of his seizure of Ukrainian territory; and things that would undermine the rules-based global order, such as American connivance in weakening NATO.

不過，特朗普失算所帶來的風險對歐洲的影響最為深遠。普京想做的事情分為三類：一是只有自己表現更好才能達成之事，比如西方解除對俄制裁；二是無論如何都難以達成之事，比如對俄羅斯侵佔烏克蘭領土的認同；三是可能破壞全球秩序的規則基礎之事，比如美國對削弱北約的默許。

Mr Putin would love it if Mr Trump gave him a freer hand in Russia』s 「near abroad」, for example by scrapping America』s anti-missile defences in Europe and halting NATO enlargement with the membership of Montenegro, which is due this year. Mr Trump appears not to realise what gigantic concessions these would be. He gives mixed signals about the value of NATO, calling it 「obsolete」 last month but vowing to support it this week. Some of his advisers seem not to care if the EU falls apart; like Mr Putin, they embrace leaders such as Marine Le Penwho would like nothing more（沒讀懂）. Mr Bannon, while admitting that Russia is a kleptocracy, sees Mr Putin as part of a global revolt by nationalists and traditionalists against the liberal elite—and therefore a natural ally for Mr Trump.

假如特朗普能少一些插手俄羅斯的邊境事務，比如放棄美國在歐洲的反導防禦計劃，並叫停北約擴張，阻止黑山共和國原定今年入歐的計劃，那普京自然求之不得。然而，特朗普似乎並沒有意識到，這將是多麼大的妥協。關於北約的價值，他釋放出了多種信號，上個月稱其「已過時」，而本周又許下誓言，說要支持北約。特朗普的顧問中，有些人似乎根本不在意北約會否解體；和普京一樣，他們支持像瑪琳·勒龐這樣的領導人，簡直如出一轍。巴農一方面承認俄羅斯是一個盜賊統治國家，另一方面又把普京視為全球民族主義者和傳統主義者叫板自由主義精英的力量之一，因此，普京也自然而然地成為了特朗普的盟友。

Played for a sucker by a silovik

被毛子玩弄於股掌之間

The quest for a grand bargain with Mr Putin is delusional. No matter how great a negotiator Mr Trump is, no good deal is to be had. Indeed, an overlooked risk is that Mr Trump, double-crossed and thin-skinned, will end up presiding over a dangerous and destabilising falling-out with Mr Putin.

想在普京身上佔到便宜簡直是在做夢。不管特朗普多麼能言善辯，都不可能做成什麼好買賣。而且，還有一種被忽視的風險，即特朗普是個兩面派和玻璃心的人，他很可能最後買賣不成，還與普京撕破臉，讓事情變得岌岌可危。

Better than either a bargain or a falling-out would be to work at the small things to improve America』s relations with Russia. This might include arms control and stopping Russian and American forces accidentally coming to blows. Congressional Republicans and his more sensible advisers, such as his secretaries of state and defence, should strive to convince Mr Trump of this. The alternative would be very bad indeed.

與其討價還價或是反目成仇，倒不如從小事著手，改善俄美關係。這也許涉及到軍備控制，以及停止俄美梁軍之間的擦槍走火。國會中的共和黨人及特朗普身邊更為明智的顧問們，比如國務卿和國防部長等人，應該竭盡所能地說服特朗普。如若不然，後果將極其可怕。