180210-Leaders-Running hot美國經濟越來越熱

The United State is taking an extraodinary economic gamble.美國正在進行一場經濟豪賭

Volatility is back. A long spell of calm, in which Americans stockmarket rose steadlily without a big sell-off, ended abruptly this week. The catalyst was a report released on February 2nd showing that wage growth in America had accelerated. The S&P 500 fell by a bit that day, and by a lot on the next trading day. The Vix, an index that reflects how changeable investors expect equity markets to be, spiked from a sleepy 14 at the start the month to an alarmed 37. In other parts of the world nerves frayed.

• volatility/?vɑl?t?l?ti/揮發性
• a long spell of 很長一段**的狀態【例】A bad barrier of cold weather, a long spell of frosts could ruin a farm and the entire crop
• sell-off American English the sale of a lot of stocks or shares, which makes the price decrease，指的是「下跌」
• catalyst a substance that makes a chemical reaction happen more quickly without being changed itself 催化劑的意思。TE很喜歡用catalyst for 這個比喻，比較常見了，再魏劍鋒《地道英文寫作進階》這本書裡面提到了詳細的總結，有興趣可以看一下。
• Vix 芝加哥證券交易所使用的市場波動指數，股票術語不是很懂，具體詳見鏈接：https://baike.baidu.com/item/VIX/6708533?fr=aladdin
• equity/?kw?ti/ a situation in which all people are treated equally and no one has an unfair advantage 公平；the amount of money that you would have left if you sold your house and paid off the money you borrowed to buy the house 資產。注意它的發音，重音在第一個音節
• spike 長釘，突然上漲。這裡當然是第二個含義了。英文中關於「增加」、「降低」的表達其實很豐富，記得大學考BEC 的時候就有類似的題。平時要注意積累。
• sleepy a sleepy town or area is very quiet, and not much happens there
• nerves 神經，態度
• frayed 磨損，爭論 The argument frayed their nerves.

美國股市又回到了動蕩的狀態。美國股市持續只漲不跌的狀態在這周突然結束了。這場波動的催化劑，是2月2日發布的關於美國借宿工資漲幅的報告。當天標普微跌，接下來的交易日大幅下跌。用於監測投資者對證券市場預期的「Vix恐慌指數」從月初平穩的14，上升到37警戒線位。世界其他地區對此也充滿了緊張氣氛。

Markets later regained some of their composure. But more adrenalin-fuelled sessions lie ahead. That is because a transition is under way in which buoyant global growth causes infaltion to replace stagnation as investors biggest fear. And that long-awaited shift is being complicated by as extraodinary gamble in the worlds biggest economy. Thanks to the recently enacted tax cuts, America is adding a hefty fiscal boost to juice up an expansion that is already mature. Public borrowing is set to doubled to $1 trillion, or 5% of GDP, in the next fiscal year. What is more, the team that is steering this experiment, both White House and the Federal Reserve, is the most inexperienced in recent momery. Whether the outcome is boom or bust, it is going to be a wild ride.

之後市場得到了稍微鎮定。但是在可預見的範圍內，還會經歷更多的波動。因為全球經濟上漲導致通貨膨脹，取代了投資者最大的恐懼--經濟停滯，正在逐漸展露頭角。並且這場期待已久的翻盤又因為世界最大經濟體的豪賭而更加紛繁複雜。近期實行的減稅政策，美國人極大地刺激的經濟增長，這對已經成熟的美國市場來說無疑是個錦上添花的好消息。公共借款在下一個財年將佔到GDP的5%，達到1千億。而且，操縱經濟實驗的團隊--白宮和美聯儲，對近年的經濟政策都是個中新手。無論結果是平穩增長還是突然爆發，都註定充滿波動。

• composure /k?m?po??/鎮靜，沉著
• adrenalin-fuelled 這兩個詞要分開看。adrenalin/?dr?nl?n/，腎上腺素，人在興奮、恐懼時體內形成的一種化學物質，比如男生遇到大胸妹子，或者考試考砸的考生回家見家長時產生的心情；fuel/?fju??l/有兩個詞性，名詞指燃油，燃料；動詞指刺激，提振，同義詞為provoke，這裡顯然是第二個含義，因為只有動詞才可以加"ed"形式。連起來adrenalin-fuelled表示」腎上腺素刺激的"；
• buoyant美音：/buj?nt/；英音/b???nt/，英音美音差別較大，注意識別。自信的、上漲的，這裡取第二個含義；
• stagnation/st?ɡnet/停滯、不發展的
• juice up【美口】活躍~~的意思
• public borrowing the total amount that a governmentborrows, or the act of borrowing this money 政府所有債務的統稱
• is set to 必定
• steer 操縱，控制
• a wild ride 又是TE多用比喻的一個體現：wild指野蠻的，狂野的；ride指騎馬，連起來「騎野馬」，必然搖搖晃晃不穩定，借指經濟波動較大

Fire your engines

The recent equity-market gyrations by themselves give little cause for concern. The world economy remains in fine fettle, buoyed by a synchronised acceleration in America, Europe and Asia. The violence of the repricing was because of new-fangled vehicles that had been caught out betting on low volatility. However, even as they scrambled to react to its re-emergence, the collateral damage to other markets, such as corporate bonds and foreigh exchange, was limited. Despite the plunge, American stock prices have fallen back only to where they were at the beginning of the year.

點燃經濟發展引擎

近期證券市場的波動並不是投資者擔憂的主要原因。世界經濟在同期美國、歐洲和亞洲的提振下運轉平穩。價格上漲引起波動的原因主要是新經濟引擎在穩定性方面難以讓人信服。儘管這些經濟體極力想讓經濟增長，但是對公司債券和外匯等其他市場的影響很有限。儘管股指跳水，但美國股市現在的處境也不過是跌到了年初的水平而已。

• gyrations/d?a?ret/ to turn around fast in circles 旋轉，迴環（腦補Jolin的歌：旋轉，跳躍，你看~不~見~）
• fettle/f?tl/，狀態，修補 the aircraft remains in fine fettle .這架飛機仍然狀況良好。
• repricing重新定價，通常指漲價
• new-fangled vehicles 分開看。new-fangled：recently designed or produced – usually used to show disapproval or distrust表示新發明的、新出廠的，通常表示不信任；vehicle汽車，
• betting on不相信
• collateral damage when non-military people are hurt or killed, or non-military property is damaged, as a result of actions in a war – used especially by the army, navy etc，附帶損害，指對非士兵、非軍用資產導致的損害
• plunge 突然跌落，（價格）跳水

Yet this episode does signal just what may lie ahead. After years in which investors could rely on central banks for support, the safety net of extraordinarily loose monetary policy is slowly being dismantled. Americas Federal Reserve has raised interest rates five times already since late 2015 and is set to do so again next month. Ten-year Treasury-bond yields have risen from blow 2.15 in September to 2.8%. Stockmarkets are in a tug-of-war between stronger profits, which warrant higher share prices, and higher bond yields, which depress the present value of those earnings and make eye-watering valuations harder to justity.

但是，這期間股市的變化把那個不能作為未來股市走向的參考。很多年以來，投資者把中央銀行

作為風向標，極端寬鬆的貨幣政策的安全性逐漸土崩瓦解。美聯儲自2015年末以來，已經加息五次，並且下月還會繼續加息。十年期國債的收益從9月份的2.15%上升到了2.8%。股市就是一場不同利益之間的激烈博弈，更高的股價和債券收益，讓當前的這些收益顯得收益不足，也讓收益高的嚇人的估值難以評判。

• Treasury-bond 國債
• yield 收益 理財產品的收益是yield這個詞，不要用成interest了
• tug-of-war拔河，激烈競爭
• eye-watering 令人震驚的，中文說「驚掉下巴」，英文說「眼睛流淚」；

This tension is an invetivable part of the return of monetary policy to more normal conditions. What is not inevitable is the scale of Americas impending fiscal bet. Economists reckon that Mr. Trumps tax reform, which lowers bills for firms and wealthy Americans- and to a lesser for ordinary workers-will jolt consumption and investment to boost growth by around 0.3% this year. And congress is about to boost government spending, if a budget deal announced this week up. Democrats are to get more funds for child care and goodies; hawks in both parties have won more money for the defence budget. Mr. Trump, meanwhile, still wants his border wall and an infrastructure plan. The mood of fiscal insouciance in Washington, DC, is troubling. Add the extra spending to rising pension and health-care cost, and America is set to run deficits above 5% of GDP for the foreseeable future. Excluding the deep recessions of the early 1980s and 2008, the United States is being more profigate than at any time since 1945.

這種緊張狀態對於回歸正常的貨幣政策來說是不可避免的，但是即將發生的美國經濟豪賭的範圍卻是可以避免的。經濟學家認為，特朗普為降低公司和富人成本、部分普通工人的減稅政策，今年將在消費和投資上拉動0.3%的增長。民主黨將為兒童醫療和老人提高基金支持；兩黨的硬派已經為國防拿到了足夠的預算。同時，特朗普卻仍為放棄在美墨邊境建立高牆和基礎設施規劃。對財務毫不在意的華盛頓陷入了泥潭。 養老和醫療成本的增加，在美國在今後可預見的幾年裡財政赤字將佔到GDP的5%。除了1980年2008年初期的低潮以外，美國政府的花費從1945一年以來就越來越毫無克制。

• impending /?mp?nd??/即將發生的
• hawks 鷹派，黨派中崇拜武力的那一方，對應【鴿派】
• insouciance/?nsus??ns/不在乎
• profligate/prɑfl?ɡ?t/ 揮霍

A cocktail of expensive stockmarkets, a maturing business cycle and fiscal largesse would test the mettle of the most experienced policymakers. Instead, American fiscal policy is being run by people who have bought into the mantra that deficets dont matter. And the central bank has a brand new boss, Jerome Powell, who, unlike his recent predecessors, has no formal expertise in monetary policy.

股價高企、成熟的商業市場和寬容的財政支持一同出現，哪怕對經驗最豐富的財政專家來說，也將是對其勇氣的考驗。於此相反，美國財政政策的制定者們卻從不把赤字作為考量標準。同時，美聯儲將迎來新的掌門人傑羅米·鮑威爾，與之前的幾位繼任者不同，鮑威爾對財政政策並沒有實際經驗。

• cocktail 本意為雞尾酒，這裡是用的它另一個含義：a mixture of several things which is dangerous, unpleasant, confusing, or exciting，指讓人感覺危險、不快、迷惑或興奮的混合物
• largresse /lɑ?(d)?es/慷慨贈予
• mettle/m?tl/勇氣，耐力
• bought into買入，買進
• mantra/m?ntr?/頌歌，咒語
• Jerome Powell下一屆美聯儲主席，傑羅米·鮑威爾。關於幾位美聯儲主席的情況，如果想深入了解可點擊鏈接：http://www.financialnews.com.cn/hq/yw/201711/t20171103_127120.html

Dose Powell like fast cars?鮑威爾像跑車一樣么？

What will determine how this gamble turns out? In the medium term, America will have to get grips with its fiscal deficit. Otherwise interest rates will eventually soar, much as they did in the 1980s. But in the short term most hangs on Mr Powell, who must steer between two opposite dangers. One is that he is too doveish, backing away from the gradual and fairly modst tightening in the Feds current plans as a slave to jittery financial markets. In effect, he would be creating a "Powell put" which would in time lead to financial bubbles. The other danger is that the Fed tightens too much too fast because it fears the economy is overheating.

誰能決定這場賭博的結局呢？從中期來看，美國必須要嚴格控制財政赤字。不然1980年代利息大幅上漲的情形將重新上演。但短期來講，不得不在兩種完全相反的境遇中斡旋的鮑威爾負擔很重。一是他傾向鴿派，從美聯儲現行的屈服於變化無常的財務市場常規和穩妥表現來說，鮑威爾顯示的是歷史的倒退。實際上，他可能形成自己獨特的「鮑威爾風格」，並可能導致出現財政泡沫。二是美聯儲由於擔心經濟過熱而把財務政策收得太多、太快。

• grip/ɡr?p/握，控制
• doveish/?d?v??/鴿派的，傾向於和平談話解決問題（與鷹牌對立）
• jittery/d??t?ri/神經過敏的，緊張的

On balance, hasty tightening is the greater risk. New to his role, Mr. Powell may be tempted to establish his inflation-fighting chops--and his independence from the White House--by pushing for higher rates faster. That would be a mistake, for three reasons.

二者相比，倉促緊縮財政的風險更大。對於剛當上美聯儲主席的鮑威爾來說，他也許很想通過加快推進加息來對抗通貨膨脹，並且能夠不受白宮的控制。這將是個錯誤決定，原因有三。

• hasty/hesti/匆忙的，急速的

First, it is far from clear that the economy is at full employment. Policymakers tend to consider those who have dropped out of the jobs market as lost to the economy for good. Yet many have been returing to work, and plenty more may yet follow. Second, the risk of a sudden burst of inflation is limited. Wage growth has picked up only gradually in America. There is little evidence of it in Germany and Japan, which also have low unemployment. The wage-bargaining arrangements behind the explosive wage-price spiral of the early 1970s are long gone. Third, there are sizeable benefits from letting the labour market tighten further. Wages are growing fastest at the bottom of the earning scale. That not only helps the blue-collar workers who have been hit disproportionately hard by technological change and globalisation. It also prompts firms to invest more in capital equipment, giving a boost to productivity growth.

首先，經濟中的就業率遠沒有達到樂觀的情況。政策制定者們傾向於認為那些已經失業的人就永遠從經濟中退出。但很多人會重新回到勞動市場，這樣的人可能有很多。第二，突然爆發通脹的可能性很小。漲薪幅度僅在美國很突出，但在失業率同樣很低的德國和日本，卻沒有明顯漲薪的跡象。1970年代初期發生的，工資和物價輪流螺旋式飆升的情形已經一去不返。第三，進一步收緊勞動市場有相當大的好處。收入最低的人群工資上漲幅度最快。這不僅有利於技術變革和全球化影響最大的藍領，同時會使企業加大對資本設備的投入，這有助於提高產量。

• spiral/spa?r?l/螺旋的

To be clear, this newspaper would not advise a fiscal stimulus of the scale that America is undertaking. It is poorly designed and recklessly large. It will add to financial-market volatility. But not that this experiment is under way, it is even more important that the Fed not lose its head.

明確地講，本刊並不贊同美國現行規模的財政刺激政策。它設計有漏洞、規模太大，而且不計後果。它將加劇財政市場的波動。但幾居然這項實驗已經開始，對於美聯儲來說最重要的是要保持冷靜。

• lose its head 頭腦代表理智，沒有「失去理智」，就是保持清醒的意思

整體的翻譯難度比上期Doctor You難度大很多，不僅術語頻出，而且需要有相當的經濟、股市類知識的積累。自己平時會上雪球，看華爾街日報，所以基本術語懂一點，翻譯起來難度雖有，但處於可以接受的範圍內。刻意練習告訴我們，跳出舒適區練習，才會有效果嘛。