雙語：超大型水電站或將成為歷史

02-18

Brazil backs away from destructive mega-dams

In early January, executives of Brazil』s Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME) announced to a national newspaper, O Globo, that the country would cease building large dams on the Amazon』s rivers, news that surprised many. The executives cited the need to 「respect the social desire to restrict these projects」. They acknowledged the difficulty of licensing and financing mega-dams following controversial projects, such as Belo Monte, a project on the Xingu River (a tributary of the Amazon) involving Chinese companies. Finally, they indicated that Brazil would pursue new directions to meet its energy needs, emphasising renewable power and decentralise distribution. 本月早些時候，巴西礦業與能源部的高層官員出乎很多人意料地通過巴西報紙《環球報》（O Globo）對外宣布，該國將停止在亞馬遜流域修建大型水電站項目。與許多同仁一樣，我們對這一消息感到高興；而更讓我們振奮的是，官員們在聲明中指出，需要「尊重社會各界要求限制此類項目的訴求」。他們還承認，由於貝盧蒙蒂等水電項目飽受爭議，所以大型水電站建設項目的審批和融資都十分複雜，因此，巴西將另闢蹊徑，通過重點發展清潔可再生能源和分散式發電的方式來滿足自身的能源需求。

This news is considered a victory for campaigners who have resisted and fought the construction of Amazon dams, particularly for those communities and organisations on the frontline. To halt a powerful dam-building juggernaut has been taken as a vindication of a decades-long struggle to defend the Amazon and all those who rely upon its irreplaceable ecosystems.表面看來，這則消息對於所有堅持與亞馬遜水電站帶來的災難做鬥爭的人都應該是一場重大勝利，其中包括「亞馬遜觀察」（Amazon Watch）以及我們在巴西和全球各地的盟友，特別是一直在基層前線不懈努力的當地社區和相關組織。過去幾十年來，我們一直致力於守護亞馬遜雨林以及所有依靠這片不可替代的生態系統維生的人們。能夠讓水電站建設的巨無霸停手，這清楚地證明了我們的工作的價值。

For Chinese companies with a growing interest in Brazils energy sector there are implications for the viability of future hydro investments. Behind China, Brazil is the second-largest producer of hydroelectricity in the world. There are several factors that led to the country』s policy shift. They include the privatisation of the state energy company Electrobras, which was involved in a corruption scandalthat undermined public support for new projects of this kind. When MME executive secretary Paulo Pedrosa mentioned the 「social desire」 to act, he was referring to the publics response to the ministrys original plan for the Amazon rivers, which foresaw building dozens of large dams over the coming years. 「We are not willing to make moves that mask their costs and their risks,」 said Pedrosa.這次明顯的政策轉向是由多個因素促成的，除了國有能源企業巴西電力公司的私有化這個因素之外，近期亞馬遜水電站項目中突出的腐敗現象也極大地影響了公眾對此類項目的支持。還有一個因素是公眾對於水電站建設項目的堅定反對。根據礦業與能源部的最初設計，未來數年要在亞馬遜流域修建幾十座大型水電站；但是，當巴西礦業與能源部執行秘書保羅·佩德羅薩在上述聲明中含糊其辭地提到「社會訴求」時，他實際上承認了公眾的反對導致該部的最初設計難以實施。佩德羅薩在聲明中說，「我們不願在沒有搞清成本和風險的情況下就採取行動」，這與該部一直以來試圖掩蓋大型水電站項目真實影響的做法大相徑庭。

In 2010, Amazon Watch joined a coalition of allies — ranging from the grassroots to the global — to fight the Belo Monte dam and its proponents. This coalition』s combined efforts sought not only to stop one emblematic project, but also to challenge a destructive development model and encourage a paradigm shift toward clean, alternative solutions. While ultimately unsuccessful at halting the mega-dam, the S?o Luiz do Tapajós dam (Belo Montes successor) was halted in 2016. The announcement in January seemed to answer the public』s call for accountability and viable energy alternatives. 2010年，「亞馬遜觀察」與包括草根組織和全球性機構在內的眾多同盟機構一道，共同對抗貝盧蒙蒂水電站項目及其支持者。我們的努力不僅是為了停止一個具有標誌性意義的項目，更是要挑戰一種破壞性的發展模式，鼓勵向清潔發展模式的徹底轉向。雖然我們最終未能如願使星谷河和沿岸的民眾免於災難，但我們的努力在政治和財務方面給水壩建設行業造成了沉重的打擊，最終致使貝盧蒙蒂水電站的後繼項目聖路易斯杜塔帕若斯水電站於2016年被擱置。上周的聲明不僅僅是對公眾呼籲採用更加負責且可行的能源解決方案的回應，似乎更說明我們的勝利已經拓展到整個巴西亞馬遜流域。

However, the credibility of the Brazilian government in these matters has been questioned. Last month, Brazil』s national energy agency ANEEL accepted viability studies for the proposed Jatoba dam on the Tapajós River, a large project with major implications for the region』s ecosystems and the wellbeing of the Munduruku indigenous people. This suggests some hydropower projects continue to move forward. 然而，我們需要結合過去和現在的經驗來看待這場勝利。由於巴西政府常常言行不一，所以我們有必要對其在此類事務上的可信度提出質疑。上周，巴西國家電力局ANEEL通過了塔帕若斯河上賈托巴水電站的可行性研究——這個項目無疑會對該地區生態系統以及蒙杜魯庫原住民的福祉造成重大影響。

Meanwhile, the government』s ten-year energy plan cites the completion of studies for the S?o Luiz do Tapajós dam』s energy transmission lines, suggesting it will be back on the agenda in 2028. Indeed, the plan questions the governments commitment to recognise disputes around the social, environmental, and economic viability of large dams, including violations of the rights of indigenous peoples. 與此同時，政府的十年能源發展規劃提出，要完成對聖路易斯杜塔帕若斯水電站輸電線路的研究，這預示著該項目將在2028年再一次被提上巴西發展日程。這一計劃表明，巴西當局仍然拒絕承認大型水電站項目在社會、環境和經濟性等方面的爭議，包括其對於原住民權益的侵犯。這些喜憂參半的信號表明，所有努力捍衛人權、保護巴西亞馬遜流域和森林的有識之士們仍然不能放鬆警惕。

It is important to note that Brazilian energy planners no longer benefit from the deep pockets of the state development bank (BNDES) which previously provided subsidised loans that covered up to 80％ of mega-dam budgets. Now mired in economic crisis, the Brazilian government is increasingly seeking Chinese investment in infrastructure projects, as in the case of the China Three Gorges (CTG) Corporation』s involvement in the S?o Manoel Dam on the Teles Pires River. The company』s 33.3％ stake in this controversial project should not be seen in isolation, but rather as part of a growing trend of Chinese corporate and financial involvement in Brazil』s development trajectory.

需要注意的是，巴西的能源規劃者們如今再也無法從巴西國家開發銀行（BNDES）的雄厚財力中受益。這家銀行之前提供的補貼貸款佔到超大型水電站項目預算金額的80％。如今，深陷經濟危機的巴西政府正越來越多地尋求中國的基礎設施建設項目投資。例如，中國三峽集團就參與了特萊斯皮雷斯河上的聖馬努埃爾水電站的投資，並在這個充滿爭議的項目中持有33.3％的股份。對此，我們不應孤立地看待，而是應該將其視為中國企業和金融機構越來越多地參與巴西發展的趨勢的一部分。

China invested US$8.5 billion in Brazil in 2017, representing 35％ of all foreign investment into Brazil that year. Investment has been concentrated in energy, infrastructure, and agriculture industries. Chinese finance, therefore, has significant and growing influence in Brazil, particularly in commodity sectors, such as soy. As logistical bottlenecks routinely delay and increase the cost of Brazil』s soy exports from Amazonian ports, infrastructure planners envision corridors including dams, waterways, and railroads that will facilitate commodity exports at great cost to the region』s ecosystems. 2017年，中國對巴投資總額達到85億美元，為 2010年以來最多的一年。中國的投資主要集中在能源、基礎設施以及農業領域。2017年，中國投資占巴西吸引外資總額的35％，中資在巴西的影響力很大並且與日俱增，特別是在那些對於中國進口巴西商品（比如大豆）具有戰略意義的行業。受制於運輸瓶頸，由亞馬遜港口輸出的巴西大豆往往不僅耗時長，並且成本高。因此，基礎設施規劃者希望深入這一地區的森林和河流，建成一個由水壩、航道和鐵路構成的交通走廊。

With controlling shares in leading Brazilian energy companies, Chinese investors could be positioning themselves to bring new Amazon dam and associated waterway projects to life. Given the aforementioned role of CTG in damming the Teles Pires River, as well as the Chinese company State Grid』s construction of Belo Monte』s energy transmission lines, there are indications that more such projects are in the pipeline. In the context of rising investments it will be hard for the Brazilian energy ministry to keep its promise to cut damming on the Amazon. 通過控制巴西能源企業股權和直接收購，中國投資者可以激活新的亞馬遜水壩和相關航道建設項目。鑒於前文所述中國三峽集團在特萊斯皮雷斯河水壩項目中扮演的角色，以及中國國家電網參與建設貝盧蒙蒂輸電線項目這一情況，有跡象表明未來還會有更多項目出台。因此，我們必須從兩方面看待目前的形勢：一方面，巴西政府官員的聲明是令人振奮的，但另一方面，中國投資者有可能推動礦業與能源部重啟他們表面上正在廢除的項目。

This month』s announcement should be celebrated as a tentative victory, albeit a fragile one that demands vigilance as Brazil continues to weather political and financial instability. With presidential elections scheduled for the end of the year, a new administration could honor or abandon the MME』s proposals.巴西政府本月的聲明應該算是一個階段性的勝利，但是，在巴西政治局勢和財政狀況持續不穩的情況下，這個勝利是脆弱的，需要我們繼續保持警惕。今年年末即將舉行總統大選，新一屆政府有可能繼續推行，也有可能推翻礦業與能源部的提案。如果是後一種情況，那將再次威脅到亞馬遜未來的穩定。只有我們堅持要求新政府繼續兌現現任政府的承諾，這一勝利才會真正成為現實。而這場勝利要歸功於長期奮鬥在一線現場的夥伴們，以及他們代表我們為保衛這片賦予我們生命的森林所做出的一切。