雙語精讀|美元匯率恐引發貿易戰
Donald Trump in Davos: dollar talk adds to fears of trade war
Donald Trump may have avoided the heavy snow that fell on the global business elite in Davos earlier this week, but he could not ignore the storm clouds building elsewhere in Europe.
唐納德?特朗普或許躲過了上周早些時候全球商界精英在達沃斯遭遇的大雪，但他不能無視歐洲其他地方正在積聚的風暴雲。
Just as the American president was arriving in the Swiss mountains for the World Economic Forum on Thursday, Mario Draghi issued an extraordinary rebuke to the US.
The European Central Bank president suggested that comments the previous day by Steven Mnuchin, Mr Trump』s treasury secretary, welcoming a weaker US dollar were a breach of agreements designed to prevent currency wars.
就在美國總統上周四抵達這片瑞士山區參加世界經濟論壇(WEF)時，馬里奧?德拉吉(Mario Draghi)對美國發出了一番非同尋常的斥責。
這位歐洲央行(ECB)行長表示，特朗普的財政部長史蒂文?姆努欽(Steven Mnuchin)此前一天發表的歡迎美元走軟的言論，違反了旨在防止爆發匯率戰的國際共識。
Mr Trump did his best to quell the controversy, insisting the US was still committed to a strong dollar. But the confusion increased the anxiety among other major economies about the bellicose and unpredictable direction of the US』s international economic policy.
特朗普竭力平息這場爭議，堅稱美國仍致力於保持強勢美元。但由此帶來的困惑加劇了其他主要經濟體對美國國際經濟政策好鬥性和未來方向無法預測的擔憂。
After years of miserable growth, the rebound in the global economy is looking more promising than at any other time since the financial crisis, with the International Monetary Fund upgrading global forecasts for 2017, 2018 and 2019, world trade growth accelerating and corporate leaders basking in more effervescent business conditions.
經過多年的慘淡增長，全球經濟反彈如今看上去比金融危機以來任何時候都更有希望：國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)上調了2017、2018和2019年的全球預測，全球貿易增長加速，企業領袖們享受著更加繁榮的營商環境。
That momentum could be checked, however, if leading economic powers start clashing over currencies or trade relations as America pulls back from its role at the vanguard of the liberal international order.
Polling across 134 countries from Gallup suggests America』s traditional leadership role has eroded badly under Mr Trump』s 「America First」 regime, with approval around the world sinking to unprecedented lows.
然而，如果隨著美國退出自由主義國際秩序先鋒的角色，主要經濟大國開始在匯率或貿易關係上發生衝突，那麼上述反彈勢頭或許會受到遏制。
蓋洛普(Gallup)在134個國家進行的民調顯示，在特朗普「美國優先」(America First)的政策之下，美國傳統的領導角色受到了嚴重侵蝕，其在世界各地的認可率跌至了前所未有的低點。
「There has been a lot of thunder, and now the storm is coming,」 says Matthew Goodman, a former White House and Treasury official who is now at the Center for Strategic & International Studies. 「Maybe the world economy can absorb all of this, but these actions on trade and currency have ripple effects around the world and I don』t take them lightly.」
「已經出現大量電閃雷鳴，風暴即將來臨，」前白宮和財政部官員、如今任職華盛頓戰略與國際問題研究中心(CSIS)的馬修?古德曼(Matthew Goodman)表示，「世界經濟或許能夠吸納這一切，但這些圍繞貿易和匯率的行動會在世界各地產生漣漪效應，不應掉以輕心。」
The White House』s more aggressive approach to economic policy, which it foreshadowed this week with the announcement of tariffs on imported solar panels and washing machines, is likely to be intensified after Mr Trump』s State of the Union address next week.
白宮更為激進的經濟政策路線——以上周宣布對進口太陽能電池板和洗衣機徵收關稅為先兆——很可能在特朗普本周發表國情咨文之後得到強化。
The administration has made it clear it plans to take action against China on intellectual property theft. Also looming are potential tariffs on steel and aluminium. Still alive too is Mr Trump』s threat to withdraw from the North American Free Trade Agreement. While the president currently appears more inclined to renegotiate Nafta, this remains a key risk to equity markets』 stellar run.
美國政府已明確表示，計劃就知識產權盜竊行為對中國採取行動。此外，美國還可能即將對鋼材和鋁徵收關稅。特朗普仍在威脅退出《北美自由貿易協定》(NAFTA)。儘管美國總統目前似乎更傾向於重新談判《北美自由貿易協定》，但這仍是股市繁榮所面臨的重大風險。
Mr Trump』s message at Davos on Friday was an attempt to sell the America First agenda as beneficial to the world. 「America First does not mean America alone,」 he said. 「When the United States grows, so does the world.」
特朗普上周五在達沃斯論壇傳達的信息，試圖將「美國優先」作為對全世界有益的議程兜售。「美國優先並不意味著只對美國有利，」他說，「當美國增長的時候，世界也一樣增長。」
While US growth figures undershot analyst expectations on Friday, with gross domestic product expanding at an annualised rate of 2.6 per cent, big companies have much to be thankful for: stock prices are at an all-time high, Mr Trump has cut US companies』 tax rates, and regulations are being stripped away.
雖然上周五公布的美國增長數據不及分析師預期——2017年四季度國內生產總值(GDP)年化季環比增長2.6％，但大型企業有很多事情值得感激：股價處於歷史高位，特朗普降低了美國企業的稅率，一些監管法規被廢除。
Yet Stephen Moore, a former economic adviser to the Trump campaign who is now a visiting fellow at the Heritage Foundation, says there remained an 「obsession」 among some White House advisers with curbing the US trade deficit that could drive them towards economically counterproductive policies on both the currency and trade.
但特朗普競選時期的經濟顧問、現任傳統基金會(Heritage Foundation)訪問研究員的史蒂芬?摩爾(Stephen Moore)表示，一些白宮顧問仍對遏制美國貿易赤字抱有「痴迷」，這會讓他們在匯率和貿易方面進一步滑向經濟上適得其反的政策。
「When you look at the kinds of things that could disrupt this burst of growth, the movement against international trade would be one of them,」 he says. 「I think this infatuation with the weak dollar is misguided. I am in favour of a strong and stable dollar. It is fool』s gold to think a weak dollar will somehow improve the economic situation.」
「當你審視那些可能破壞這輪井噴式增長的種種因素時，反國際貿易運動便是其中之一，」他說，「我認為這種對弱勢美元的迷戀會誤入歧途。我更希望美元強勢而穩定。認為美元走軟會在某種程度上改善經濟狀況的想法是愚蠢的。」
Mr Trump himself has form when it comes to talking down the dollar: just days before his inauguration last January he told the Wall Street Journal that its high value was 「killing」 the US.
在以言論支持美元貶值方面，特朗普本人也有過先例：就在他去年1月就職前幾天，他對《華爾街日報》(Wall Street Journal)表示，美元高幣值正在「扼殺」美國。
The dollar fell around 13 per cent last year against a basket of major currencies, driven in part by improved prospects overseas. It has dropped another 3.5 per cent this year. The question is whether other nations will, despite Mr Trump』s protestations, conclude that the US is angling for a weaker exchange rate in a reversal of the strong dollar policy that has notionally held sway since Robert Rubin was Treasury secretary under President Bill Clinton. This could pave the way for a new round of destabilising currency wars, as well as damaging overseas demand for US assets.
美元兌一籃子全球主要貨幣匯率去年下跌約13％，部分是因為外國經濟前景的改善。今年又下跌了3.5％。儘管特朗普表示姆努欽的話被曲解了，但問題在於，其他國家是否會得出如下結論：美國正在謀求美元走弱，扭轉自羅伯特?魯賓(Robert Rubin)擔任比爾?柯林頓(Bill Clinton)總統時期的財政部長以來理論上一直佔據支配地位的強勢美元政策。這或將為新一輪破壞穩定的匯率戰鋪平道路，同時也會傷及海外對美國資產的需求。
Trump administration officials insist they are not out to explode the multilateral system and that they are seeking to reform rather than destroy institutions such as the World Trade Organization. But they have made clear the world should expect more actions like this week』s tariffs — and that China will be their primary target. 「Across the board everyone sees China as a major threat that needs to be dealt with,」 says a senior White House official.
特朗普政府官員堅稱他們不是要破壞多邊體系，他們是在謀求改革而不是摧毀世界貿易組織(WTO)等機構。但他們也明確表示全球應預期更多像上周的關稅這樣的行動，而中國將成為他們的首要目標。白宮一位高級官員表示：「大家都認為中國是一個需要應對的主要威脅。」
C Fred Bergsten, a long-term advocate of a more activist US currency policy at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, says that reducing the trade gap is a legitimate goal after decades of relentless deficits and that a weakened dollar represented 「a far superior alternative」 to outright protectionism. 「I would argue the robust economic outlook suggests the world could accept a further, modest decline in the exchange rate of the dollar,」 he says.
彼得森國際經濟研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)的C?福雷德?伯格斯坦(C Fred Bergsten)長期主張美國採取更激進的匯率政策，他表示在經歷幾十年的持續赤字之後，縮小貿易差距是一個合理的目標，而且美元疲軟相較徹底的保護主義是「一個更好的選擇」。他說：「我會認為強勁的經濟前景表明全球可以接受美元匯率進一步適度下滑。」
The recent dollar sell-off only partly reverses a surge in the currency that started in 2014. And while the spectre of protectionism looms large over the White House』s trade policies, the new tariffs on solar cells and washing machines are within the boundaries of past US and even global practice. Barack Obama triggered similar 「safeguards」 on Chinese tyres in 2009, George W Bush applied tariffs to US steel imports in 2002.
近期的美元拋售僅部分逆轉了2014年開始的美元飆升。雖然保護主義的幽靈赫然籠罩在白宮的貿易政策之上，但太陽能電池和洗衣機的新關稅仍處於美國乃至全球過往做法的範圍之內。2009年巴拉克?奧巴馬(Barack Obama)曾針對中國輪胎實行類似的「保護措施」，小布希(George W Bush)曾在2002年對美國進口鋼材徵收關稅。
The US has raised the prospect of new unilateral action by the US, including tariffs against Chinese imports and a crackdown on investment. The EU and Japan have been working to convince the Trump administration to fight as part of an alliance within the WTO. But any action outside WTO rules would invite retaliation by China and a more uncertain trade battle.
美國提高了新的單邊行動的可能性，包括對中國進口產品徵收關稅以及打擊投資。歐盟和日本一直在努力說服特朗普政府作為世貿組織內聯盟的一部分來進行打擊活動。但任何違反世貿組織規則的行為都可能招致中國的報復，並引發更加不確定的貿易戰。
Mr Trump this week said he might be open to rejoining the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the grand trade project negotiated by his predecessor, after abandoning it as one of his first acts in office. US officials have also stressed that they are open to reviving a negotiation with the EU and other bilateral deals. But it is not clear any discussions arein the pipeline.
特朗普上周表示，他可能考慮重新加入他的前任談判的、他上任後作為第一批行動之一退出的《跨太平洋夥伴關係協定》（Trans-Pacific Partnership，簡稱TPP）。美國官員也強調他們願意重啟與歐盟以及其他雙邊協議的談判。但目前尚不清楚是否有討論正在進行中。
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