奇文共賞：為什麼說印度在貿易中戰勝了中國How India Beats China At Trade

02-10

本文來自福布斯：Forbes Welcome

作者：Tim Worstall，智庫寫手，美國諸多報刊評論員

翻譯：知乎用戶羅一覺

原文是針對印度時報的一篇文章：[中國在貿易戰中戰勝了印度] 的回應。文中的引用部分來自於這篇文章。（How China beats India hollow in trade and dominates Indian homes, markets and economy - Times of India）

原文：

Over in The Times of India weve a piece talking about how China beats India at trade--the only problem with it is that all the evidence they provide shows that it is India which is winning here. That problem stemming from the fact that the logic used is entirely wrong. Imports are the purpose of trade, imports are why we trade at all. Thus, India gaining more in imports from China is winning, not losing, at trade. That this mistake is common does not excuse it.

印度時報最近有一篇講述中國是如何在貿易戰中戰勝了印度的文章。這篇文章的唯一問題是，現今所有證據都指出，印度才是贏的那一方。問題的根源在於大家用的邏輯是錯的。進口是貿易的目的，進口是我們貿易的唯一原因。所以印度在和中國的貿易中進口多是一種勝利而不是失敗。（認為貿易出超就是勝利）是一個很常見的謬誤。

Just when India is pushing for solar energy (targeting 100 GW by 2022, 1 GW = 1,000 MW), Vikram Solar is hurting. Last quarter, capacity utilisation stood at half, even after exporting a fourth of its produce. "We are fighting the Beijing factor. Over 80% of Indias solar component supplies have been hijacked by the Chinese." he says. Aggressive pricing on the back of state subsidy, a protectionist outlook and cheap finance have allowed Chinese manufacturers to outprice their domestic counterparts. Products of Vikram Solar are 8-10% costlier than Chinese imports. Indias aggressive solar energy targets would mean business worth over $40 billion for component manufacturers over the next five years.
當印度大力發展太陽能的時候，Vikram Solar太陽能公司卻在虧損。在上個季度，該公司的生產潛力只被使用了一半，這還是在25%的產品被出口的情況下。「我們在和北京打貿易戰。印度80%的太陽能配件市場都被中國奪去了。」由國家支持的中國太陽能企業得以用比（印度）本土更便宜的價格侵略印度市場。Vikram Solar的產品比中國進口的產品貴8%到10%。印度當局激進的太陽能計劃意味著未來5年會有四百億美元的太陽能配件市場。

The point being that we want solar cells in order to be able to produce energy. If we can get those cells 8% cheaper then thats a win for us, we get to produce electricity more cheaply. This is true whether China subsidises manufacture or not. In fact, if it does, then this is a subsidy from Chinese tax payers to Indian electricity consumers--and who doesnt like free money?

我的點在於，我們需要太陽能板是為了生產電能。如果我們能得到中國產的便宜8%的太陽能板，那是一件好事情。因為不管中國政府是否在補助這些企業，我們都可以在發電的時候省一筆錢。實際上，如果中國政府真的在補助這些企業，那就是說中國納稅人在為印度人的太陽能板付錢，誰不喜歡白送的東西呢？

China is Indias largest trading partner, with bilateral trade at $71.5 billion, but it is heavily skewed in favour of China. India imports $61.3 billion worth of Chinese products while it exports just $10.2 billion worth of goods to China. From -$37.2 billion in 2011-12, trade deficit has widened in the last six years to -$51.1 billion.
中國是印度最大的貿易夥伴。儘管雙邊貿易額達到了715億美元，但天平嚴重的滑向中國那一方。印度從中國進口的額度達到了613億美元，只向中國出口了102億美元的貨物。貿易逆差在過去六年從2011-12年的372億美元拉大到了511億美元

Exports are the things we have to sweat over so that other people, foreigners, can consume them. Imports are that sweat of foreigners that we get to consume. Who doesnt like to consume the labour of others? Think this through for a moment. Imagine that I live in a fine house. Is this to my benefit or the benefit of the builder? Im really pretty sure that this benefits me more than him. Equally, if I can and do consume fine food is this more to my benefit than that of the farmer? Im really pretty sure it is more to my benefit, yes.

出口的貨物是我們用血汗製造給外國人使用的。進口貨物是外國人用血汗製造給我們使用的。誰不想用外國人的勞動產品呢？你好好想想。想像我現在住在豪宅里。是我在享受還是建築工人在享受？我很確定是我在享受。同樣的，如果我在吃美食，這是我在享受還是農民？我非常確定也是我。

That India imports more from China than it exports to it is evidence that India is winning at trade--for imports are the very purpose of trade in the first place.

所以，印度對中國巨大的貿易逆差說明了印度是與中國的貿易戰中的勝利者。因為進口是貿易的唯一目的。