8月15日澳聯儲會議紀要前瞻
02-03
Preview from Westpac says the same:
- The RBA minutes are likely to reflect the recently communicated SoMP and Governor Lowes parliamentary testimony.
Ditto from ANZ:
- The RBA minutes should be relatively uneventful, as the SOMP and Lowes
Testimony have already provided some colour on the RBAs take on the
outlook.
National Australia Bank on the minutes:
- They are unlikely to add too much more given the Governors comprehensive grilling at todays Parliamentary Testimony and the recently released
August Statement on Monetary Policy.
- In the Testimony, the Governor noted "current market pricing implies greater probability of a rate rise than a rate reduction, it also implies that the next move in interest rates is a long way out...I think theyre both reasonable assumptions".
- Dr Lowe also noted that employment growth has been stronger of late, though "it is likely to be some time before we reach what could be
considered full employment in Australia."
- Going forward, it will be important to monitor the labour markets track towards full employment.
- The RBA will likely begin to remove policy accommodation before the economy approaches full employment.
TD Securities has a different view:
- Usually the Board minutes that are released after the semi-annual monetary policy testimony are irrelevant and out of date, however, after last months horror, the markets will be pouring over the details, just in case.
ASB with more (bolding mine)
- The Reserve Bank of Australias August Board Minutes will probably be a nonevent, given that they follow the Statement of Monetary Policy. And given the furore in the July Minutes with the paragraph around the neutral cash rate, the RBA will want to sound as neutral as possible.
- That said, the Minutes might contain a more detailed discussion on the AUD given there was more in the Governors Statement in August on the exchange rate than in previous months.
From RAN's weekly preview, which includes a look ahead to important data from Australia due later this week:
- InAustralia early focus will fall on the release of the minutes from the RBAs most recent monetary policy decision ... The statement which accompanied the decision noted that economic activity will be slower if AUD continues to appreciate, and since then RBA Governor Lowe has noted that the Bank stands ready to intervene in the FX market if it deems fit (it doesnt at present). The minutes will be supplemented by speeches RBA members Kent (on Monday) and Ellis (on Thursday). Thursday will also bring the release of the Australian labour market report from July. Analysts expect that the labour force added 20,000 roles, with the unemployment and participation rates seen steady at 5.6% and 65.0% respectively. ANZ suggest that "while the labour market numbers have been particularly strong over recent months, ongoing solid growth in job ads and elevated business conditions suggest that the strength is likely to continue in the near term."
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