8月15日澳聯儲會議紀要前瞻

Preview from Westpac says the same:

  • The RBA minutes are likely to reflect the recently communicated SoMP and Governor Lowes parliamentary testimony.

Ditto from ANZ:

  • The RBA minutes should be relatively uneventful, as the SOMP and Lowes

    Testimony have already provided some colour on the RBAs take on the

    outlook.

National Australia Bank on the minutes:

  • They are unlikely to add too much more given the Governors comprehensive

    grilling at todays Parliamentary Testimony and the recently released

    August Statement on Monetary Policy.

  • In the Testimony, the Governor noted "current market pricing implies

    greater probability of a rate rise than a rate reduction, it also

    implies that the next move in interest rates is a long way out...I think

    theyre both reasonable assumptions".
  • Dr Lowe also noted that employment growth has been stronger of late,

    though "it is likely to be some time before we reach what could be

    considered full employment in Australia."

  • Going forward, it will be important to monitor the labour markets track towards full employment.
  • The RBA will likely begin to remove policy accommodation before the economy approaches full employment.

TD Securities has a different view:

  • Usually the Board minutes that are released after the semi-annual monetary

    policy testimony are irrelevant and out of date, however, after last

    months horror, the markets will be pouring over the details, just in

    case.

ASB with more (bolding mine)

  • The Reserve Bank of Australias August Board Minutes will probably be a

    nonevent, given that they follow the Statement of Monetary Policy. And

    given the furore in the July Minutes with the paragraph around the

    neutral cash rate, the RBA will want to sound as neutral as possible.
  • That said, the Minutes might contain a more detailed discussion on the AUD given there was more in the Governors Statement in August on the exchange rate than in previous months.

From RAN's weekly preview, which includes a look ahead to important data from Australia due later this week:

  • InAustralia early focus will fall on the release of the minutes from the

    RBAs most recent monetary policy decision ... The statement which

    accompanied the decision noted that economic activity will be slower if

    AUD continues to appreciate, and since then RBA Governor Lowe has noted

    that the Bank stands ready to intervene in the FX market if it deems fit

    (it doesnt at present). The minutes will be supplemented by speeches

    RBA members Kent (on Monday) and Ellis (on Thursday). Thursday will also

    bring the release of the Australian labour market report from July.

    Analysts expect that the labour force added 20,000 roles, with the

    unemployment and participation rates seen steady at 5.6% and 65.0%

    respectively. ANZ suggest that "while the labour market numbers have

    been particularly strong over recent months, ongoing solid growth in job

    ads and elevated business conditions suggest that the strength is

    likely to continue in the near term."

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