影子銀行-貨幣圖景（挖坑翻譯之三）

本文由智堡網Mikko翻譯，譯文可以在未告知我的情形下無償轉載、使用或者進行其他形式的二次編譯，但不允許通過任何形式（包括二次編譯）刪除這一段的譯者信息和第一來源證明。

筆者註：這篇論文太屌了，以至於我一直藏著掖著。本文出自Zoltan Pozsar大神。我發郵件向他索取了翻譯權，由於一部分內容理解起來有困難所以一直沒著手翻譯，現在差不多啃了幾遍能大約摸清一二。Pozsar的Money Notes系列google上都可以公開搜索到，應該也木有版權問題，所以以後也會選擇時間翻譯。

完全理解這篇論文有難度，此外翻譯質量嘛我也很難保證咯，我只能儘力，大家湊合看，很多內容我是選譯+自己語言組織，並不會完全尊重原文。要噴的話我也不凱爾，反正你也看不懂。

Public-private money claims are backed by public assets but are not backed by public liquidity and credit puts explicitly. They are private promises to pay par on demand and par at maturity. However, because of the public nature of the collateral and assets backing them, public-private claims effectively have implicit access to both public liquidity and credit puts, because public assets are open market operation eligible and have no credit risk.16 The emphasis here is on the implicit and public nature of backstops. The remainder of the paper will refer to these instruments as 「public shadow money.」

公-私貨幣要求權是由公共資產所擔保的，但並非明確地由公共流動性以及信用賣權所擔保。它們是私人承諾——按要求兌付併到期兌付。但是，由於擔保它們的抵押物及資產的公共自然特性，公-私要求權實際上擁有公共流動性及信用賣權的隱含使用權，因為公共資產在公開市場上合格且沒有信用風險。這裡的重點是「隱含」以及「擔保物自然特性」。後文將把這些工具指涉為「公共影子貨幣」。

In the lower-right corner of the matrix are purely private monies. These are private repos (repos collateralized by credit-risky private securities, such as corporate bonds, issued by dealers』 credit trading desks) and the constant NAV shares of prime funds.

在貨幣母體的右下角是純粹的私人貨幣。它們是私人回購（有信用風險的私人證券作抵押的回購，比如公司債，由交易商信用交易平台發行）以及一級基金的恆定凈資產份額。

Purely private money claims are backed by private assets and, similar to public-private money claims, are not backed by public liquidity and credit puts explicitly. They too are private promises to pay par on demand or at maturity. However, private money lacks even indirect access to public liquidity and credit puts, because private assets are not open market operation eligible and have plenty of credit risk, which makes purely private claims relatively risky, peripheral forms of money. The emphasis here is on the lack of even implicit forms of public backstops. The remainder of the paper will refer to these instruments as 「private shadow money.」

純粹的私人貨幣要求權是由私人資產所擔保的，與公-私貨幣要求權類似，它並不明確地以公共流動性及信用賣權為擔保。同樣的，它們也是私人承諾，並按要求兌付併到期兌付。但是，私人貨幣缺乏，甚至缺乏間接的公共流動性及信用賣權的使用權，因為私人資產在公開市場上不合格，還存在信用風險，使得它們變為相對有風險的貨幣的次級形式。這裡的重點是甚至缺乏隱含形式的公共擔保。後文將把這些工具指涉為「私人影子貨幣」。

Uninsured bank deposits are also private shadow money. Although the wholesale banks that issue these do have access to official liquidity puts, if the central bank is unwilling to lend to a bank during a panic — perhaps because it deems the bank insolvent — the absence of an explicit public credit put effectively makes uninsured deposits credit-risky private bills. Post-crisis limitations on the Federal Reserve』s lender of last resort authority and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation』s ability to guarantee banks』 unsecured debt (such as uninsured deposits) make this point even starker (see Geithner, 2014).

未保險的銀行存款也是私人影子貨幣。儘管發行它的批發銀行確有官方流動性賣權的使用權，如果中央銀行不願意在恐慌時期借給銀行——也許央行不認為銀行有足夠的清償力——缺乏明確的公共信用賣權事實上將使得未保險的存款變為有信用風險的私人票據。危機前聯儲的最後貸款人許可權有限制，且FDIC擔保銀行的無擔保債務（比如未保險的存款）能力也有限，該觀點也因此更顯而易見。

Note that the Money Matrix in Figure 1 displays only the core institutions and instruments of the onshore U.S. dollar money market, institutions and instruments that are cornerstones in the provision of a specific subset of safe assets, namely safe, short-term assets that carry no or only minimal credit and duration risks.

請注意圖1的貨幣母體僅呈現了美國在岸美元貨幣市場的核心機構及工具——它們是市場的基石，供應了安全資產，也就是安全的，無（或者最小）信用風險或期限風險的短期資產。

Eurodollar (that is, offshore) money market instruments, to be discussed in Part III of this paper, and private bills other than uninsured deposits, are not displayed in the matrix, because from the perspective of onshore investors, they are secondary in the hierarchy of safe assets. These instruments are more a means to enhance yield by taking on credit risk rather than cornerstone safe assets.

歐洲美元（既離岸）貨幣市場工具，將在第三部討論，除未保險存款以外的私人票據，沒有在母體中呈現，因為從在岸投資者的角度出發，它們是安全資產層級中二級的。相對於安全資產的基石而言，這些工具更像是通過承擔信用風險來加強收益率的手段。

The Money Matrix is also useful to demonstrate where the shadow banking system sits within the broader ecosystem.

貨幣母體也有助於演示影子銀行在廣義（金融）生態體系中居處何位。

The shadow banking system (see McCulley, 2007) and its core institutions, dealers, and money funds, are on the right-hand side of the matrix and can be divided into two subsystems: a public-private and a purely private shadow banking subsystem, which in turn issue public shadow monies and private shadow monies, respectively.

影子銀行體系和它的核心機構，交易商以及貨幣基金，處在母體的右手邊並可以被分為兩個次體系：一個公-私以及一個純粹的私人影子銀行次體系，它們發行公共影子貨幣以及私人影子貨幣。

The public-private subsystem is built around public assets such as Treasuries, and agency debt and RMBS. It conducts maturity and liquidity transformation but no credit transformation because public securities have no credit risk.20 Here maturity and liquidity transformation mean turning predominantly long-term public securities into short-term, par at maturity (that is, money-like) claims via term repos, and overnight, par on demand (that is, money) claims via overnight repos and constant NAV money fund shares, respectively.

公-私次級體系是建立在諸如國債、機構債以及RMBS這類公共資產之上的。它處理期限及流動性轉換，但不提供信用轉換，因為公共資產沒有信用風險。這裡的期限和流動性轉換意味著將主要的長期公共證券通過期限回購、隔夜回購轉換為短期的，面額到期（既準貨幣）要求權，通過隔夜回購以及恆定凈資產貨幣基金份額轉換為面額按需（既貨幣）要求權。

The purely private subsystem is built around private assets, such as corporate bonds, asset backed securities, and private-label RMBS. It also conducts maturity and liquidity transformation, as well as credit transformation via tranching and haircuts higher than on private repos because private securities collateral are credit-risky. It were the securitization and funding flows of this subsystem that were mapped and described by Pozsar, 2008 and Pozsar et al, 2010.

純粹私人次級體系是建立在諸如公司債，ABS以及私標RMBS這類私人資產之上的。它亦處理期限及流動性轉換，也提供信用轉換——通過評級及折價高於私人回購，因為私人證券抵押物是有信用風險的。它是我過往論文中描繪的資產證券化及融資流次體系。

In terms of measurement, Chart 1 shows that at the end of 2013 the largest category of par on demand money claims was private shadow money comprised of uninsured demand deposits issued by banks, overnight private repos issued by dealers』 credit desks, and the constant NAV shares of prime money funds at a total of $3.2 trillion.

在測量方面，下圖1展示了截止2013年，最大的面額按需貨幣要求權類別為私人影子貨幣——包括銀行發行的未擔保所需存款，交易商信用平台發行的隔夜私人回購以及一級貨幣基金的恆定凈資產份額，總額為3.2萬億。

The second largest category was public money issued by the Federal Reserve at just under $2.5 trillion (excluding currency) and Treasury securities with a remaining maturity of less than seven days at more than $100 billion for a combined total of about $2.6 trillion.

第二大類別則是聯儲發行的公共貨幣，不到2.5萬億（除去通貨），以及國債，總量為2.6萬億，7天內到期的佔到1000億。

The third largest category was public shadow money comprised of overnight government repos backed by Treasuries and agency debt and RMBS and issued by dealers』 government trading desks, and the constant NAV shares of government-only money funds at $2.3 trillion.

第三大類是公共影子貨幣，包括隔夜政府回購（以國債，機構債以及RMBS為擔保，由交易商政府交易平台發行）以及只投資於政府資產的貨幣基金恆定資產凈值份額，總額為2.3萬億。

Finally, the smallest category was insured money claims comprised of insured demand deposits issued by banks at $1.4 trillion.

最後，最小的類別是有保險的貨幣要求權，包括銀行發行的總額1.4萬億的有保險的需求存款。

Chart 2 plots a similar ranking of par at maturity money-like claims. The largest category was insured money-like claims in the form of banks』 insured savings and small time deposits at $6 trillion.

下圖2是一張類似的面額期限準貨幣要求權的排序圖。最大的類別是有保險的準備金要求權。包括央行的有保險儲蓄以及小額定期存款。總額為6萬億。

The second largest category was public money-like claims comprised of Treasury bills and notes with a remaining maturity of more than seven days but less than one year at more than $2.3 trillion.

第二大類別的是公共準貨幣要求權包括短中期國債（期限大於7天小於1年），總量超過2.3萬億。

The third largest category was private shadow money-like claims comprised mostly of banks』 large deposits at more than $1.2 trillion.

第三大類別是私人影子準貨幣要求權，包括佔大頭的銀行大額存款（1.2萬億）。

Finally, the smallest category was public shadow money-like claims comprised of term government repos backed by Treasuries and agencies issued by dealers』 government desks at around $800 billion.

最後，最小的類別是公共影子準貨幣要求權包括有期限的政府回購（以國債，機構債擔保，由交易商政府交易平台發行），總額在8000億左右。

Importantly, what these rankings show is that as of the third quarter of 2013, the shadow banking system, at more than $3.8 trillion, issued $800 billion more in par on demand money claims than retail and wholesale banks with $3 trillion in demand deposits.

重要的是，這個排序表明了在截止2013年3季度時，影子銀行體系，規模超過3.8萬億，相較於零售及批發銀行的3萬億需求存款，發行超出了後者8000億面額需求貨幣要求權。

By contrast, when it comes the provision of par at maturity money-like claims over the same period, the U.S. Treasury was a more important supplier than the shadow banking system, but both were dwarfed by savings and small and large time deposits issued by banks.

相比之下，我們看到面額期限準貨幣要求權的供應中，同期，美國財政部是更重要的供應者（相比於影子銀行），但兩者都少於銀行發行的儲蓄以及小、大額定期存款。

Altogether, the size of the core of the shadow banking system was just under $5 trillion as of the third quarter of 2013, down from a peak of over $8 trillion as of the second quarter of 2008.

總的來看，影子銀行體系的核心規模截止2013年3季度不達5萬億，相比於2008年2季度的8萬億峰值顯著下滑。

These figures are lower than earlier measures of the system (see Pozsar et al, 2010) because they are narrower in focus: the estimates measure the net supply of money and money-like claims issued by dealers and money funds at the core of the system and disregards all forms of capital market lending not funded in the money market. Initial measures of the system were gross, not netting for holdings between intermediaries, and included all forms of securitized credit regardless of whether they were funded in the money market or not, which inflated aggregate measures further.

這些數字比之前的統計要低，以為他們更狹義：估計值測量了體系內核心交易商及貨幣基金的凈貨幣及準貨幣要求權供給，並排除了貨幣市場融資以外的所有形式的資本市場借貸。起初的統計是總值，而不是媒介之間的凈值，並納入了所有形式的證券化的信用工具（無論它是否在貨幣市場融資），最終使得總額看上去很大。

Banks do more than just lending. They also issue money claims. By extension, if lending without money creation does not qualify as banking, neither should capital market lending without money market funding qualify as shadow banking. Measures of shadow banking should be designed to reflect this perspective.

銀行不僅僅放貸。他們也發行貨幣要求權。由此可知，如果借貸沒有創生貨幣就不能被視為銀行業，那麼未通過貨幣市場融資的資本市場借貸也不能被視為影子銀行業。對影子銀行的數據測度必須反應這個觀點事實。

Importantly, the Federal Reserve』s monetary aggregates for the United States measure only the tip of the monetary system discussed above. The Federal Reserve』s M0, M1 and M2 aggregates measure mostly the insured money supply (insured bank deposits) and only parts of the public money supply (currency and reserves, but not RRPs and Treasury bills) and the shadow money supply (retail class money fund shares, but not institutional-class shares and repo liabilities).

重要的是，聯儲的貨幣總量統計是只納入貨幣體系頂端的。M0，M1和M2僅統計了大多數有保險貨幣供給（有保險銀行存款）和一部分公共貨幣供給（通貨，準備金，但不包括RRPs和短期國債）和影子貨幣供給。（零售貨幣基金份額，而不包括機構類份額和回購負債）

The categories of money described above could serve as a template to expand the scope of the Federal Reserve』s money supply measures to the complexities of the modern financial ecosystem in a way that also takes into account the hierarchical nature of money.

上述的分類擴展了貨幣供給的統計範圍，也符合當代金融生態的真實複雜程度，亦考慮到了貨幣的層極天性。

One way to go about doing this would be to track the supply of both money and money-like claims across four categories ranging from purely public, private-public, public-private and purely private, denoted by PD0, PD1, PD2 and PD3 for Par on Demand money claims and PM0, PM1, PM2 and PM3 for Par at Maturity money claims, respectively.

我們需要通過四個類別來追蹤貨幣及準貨幣要求權的供給——包括純粹公共，私-公，公-私以及純粹私人，由PD0，PD1，PD2和PD3表述面額需求貨幣要求權，PM0，PM1，PM2，PM3表述面額期限貨幣要求權。

Finally, how does the Federal Reserve』s reverse repo facility fit into the money matrix? If permanent, the facility would effectively help reduce interconnections between banks, dealers and money funds — and thereby simplify the system — by eliminating the hierarchical relationships whereby money for dealers is government repos with wholesale banks, and money for money funds is repos with dealers.

最後，聯儲的RRP工具如何嵌入到整個貨幣母體？如果工具是永久性的，可以有效幫助削減銀行、交易商以及貨幣基金間的內部聯繫並通過消除層極關係來簡化體系——藉此，對於交易商而言貨幣是政府回購（對手方為批發銀行），而貨幣基金的貨幣則是回購（與交易商）。

Reverse repos effectively grant shadow banks — dealers and money funds — a checking account at the Federal Reserve for the very first time in U.S. monetary history, similar to how reserves held at the central bank function as a checking account for traditional banks. Instead of having to keep cash with other counterparties, shadow banks will be able to hold cash with the Federal Reserve directly.

RRP工具有效地滿足了影子銀行——交易商及貨幣基金在聯儲開設支票賬戶的需求，在美國貨幣歷史上也是首次，與傳統銀行開設在銀行的準備金賬戶類似。影子銀行可以直接把現金存放在央行，而不用尋找其他的對手方。

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