資本管制難敵中國買家資金騰挪術

原文鏈接：How Chinese Buyers Abroad Offer a Lesson on Capital Controls

原文作者：EMILY NONKO

Global commercial real-estate participants keen to know the impact of Beijing』s capital controls might not need to look much further than the cat-and-mouse game that is being played in the residential markets for years.

全球商業地產投資者都想了解中國政府資本管控的影響，他們可能只需要回顧一下住宅市場多年來上演的貓鼠遊戲就能略知一二。

Chinese individuals have long faced limits to overseas investments equal to about $50,000. But for years, Chinese home buyers have been figuring out ways to work around these restrictions. As a result, they have become a major buying force in the U.S., U.K, Australia, Canada and other major global markets.To be sure, the Chinese government from time-to-time has tightened restrictions to curb outflows and often these crackdowns have had short-term impacts on deal activity in global markets. Indeed, new regulations that went into effect earlier this year have had a dampening effect on some markets, brokers in numerous U.S. and European cities report.

長期以來，中國人的海外投資一直面臨五萬美元的外匯限額。但中國房地產買家總能想出繞開這些限制的方法，他們也因此成為美國、英國、澳大利亞、加拿大和全球其他主要市場上的主力買家。中國政府的確會不時收緊政策以控制資本外流，而這些限制措施也經常給全球市場上的交易活動帶來短期影響。據美國和歐洲多個城市的地產中介機構稱，今年早些時候出台的新規的確對一些市場產生了抑制作用。

Starting late last year, the Chinese government began imposing new capital controls on overseas commercial property investment. Institutional investors wary of getting caught in the crosshairs of officials in Beijing have become more selective in their investments and are steering clear of splashy deals. But market participants say these slowdowns typically don』t last. 「People will find alternatives,」 said Dehlan Gwo, a member of Realogics Sotheby』s International Realty』s Asia Services Group, in a recent report. 「I think we will see more and more creative ways to move money out of the mainland.」

從去年年底開始，中國政府針對海外商業地產投資出台了新的資本管控措施。擔心成為管控對象的機構投資者在選擇投資標的時變得更加謹慎了，他們會避免那些引人注目的交易。但市場人士稱，這种放緩通常不會持續很久。REALOGICS蘇富比國際地產亞洲服務團隊的成員Dehlan Gwo在近期的一份報告中稱，買家會找到變通的方法。他表示，將有越來越多的創造性辦法把資金轉移出中國大陸。

Chinese buyers remained the top foreign buyer of residential real estate in the U.S. in the 12-month period ended March with a $31.7 billion share of the $153 billion in total sales, according to a report by the National Association of Realtors. In the previous 12-month period, the tally was $27.3 billion, the report said.

全美地產經紀商協會的報告顯示，截至3月份的12個月中，中國投資者依然是美國住宅地產市場最大海外買家，在1,530億美元的總體成交額中，中國買家成交額為317億美元。報告還稱，在之前的12個月中，中國買家的成交額為273億美元。

In Australia, about 90% of foreign demand is from China and there is little sign of it ebbing, according to an October report by Credit Suisse. 「There are now 1.6 million U.S. dollar millionaires in China,」 the report said. 「We think these individuals dominate the buying of Aussie property.」

瑞士信貸10月份的報告顯示，澳大利亞大約90%的此類海外需求來自中國，並且沒有降溫跡象。報告稱，目前中國有160萬以美元計算的百萬富翁，這些人成為澳大利亞房地產市場投資的主力軍。

Many people familiar with the restrictions say they don』t affect China』s wealthiest, many of whom already hold diversified assets outside the country and have moved enough money out of China, often to accounts in Hong Kong or Singapore, to continue buying overseas.

許多了解資本外流限制的知情人士稱，這些限制不影響中國最富的人群，他們中的許多人已經在海外擁有多元化的資產，並且已經將足夠多的資金轉移出了中國繼續進行海外投資，這些資金常常存在香港或新加坡的賬戶中。

「At the high-end, I』m seeing Chinese buyers that are here already, have already purchased one house, and they』re coming back and upgrading to more expensive real estate,」 said Anna Riley, managing broker for West Bellevue Partners, a luxury residential firm in Washington state.

Ken DeLeon, founder of DeLeon Realty, has noticed a similar trend around Silicon Valley. 「We』ve never seen the demand stronger for properties $10 million and over,」 he said. The firm aggressively markets luxury homes to the Chinese; Mr. DeLeon said roughly 50% of his listings priced $10 million or higher continue to sell to Chinese buyers.

Still, other brokers—especially those who deal with lower priced properties—saying the most recent intensification of restrictions are having an impact. 「There are a lot of people coming over, very interested in buying, and then they can』t get the capital out,」 said Kerry Lynn, a residential broker with Douglas Elliman, who has spent four years building her business with Chinese buyers in New York.

Mark McLaughlin, chief executive of Pacific Union International, Inc., said that across California, sales volume from Mainland Chinese buyers in the first half of 2017 is 50% less than the prior year. His firm, he said, has started searching for 「the next international buyer,」 kicking off digital marketing campaigns in cities such as Mumbai.

美國華盛頓州高端住宅公司West Bellevue Partners的經紀人Anna Riley認為，在高端市場，那些已經購買了一套房產的中國投資者正在回歸，並且將目標轉向了價位更高的房地產。

DeLeon Realty創始人Ken DeLeon也注意到矽谷有類似的趨勢。他表示，從未見過1,000萬美元及以上價位的房產需求如此旺盛。該公司積極向華人推銷豪宅；DeLeon表示，該公司掛牌價至少1,000萬美元的房產中，大約一半仍然賣給了中國人。

不過，其他經紀人表示近期管控加強正在產生影響，尤其是那些推售較低價格物業的經紀人，他們的感受最為強烈。Douglas Elliman住宅經紀人Kerry Lynn稱，很多人來看房子，也很有興趣買，可就是錢出不來。Kerry Lynn在紐約從事幫助華人置業的工作已有四年。

加州豪華住宅房地產經紀公司Pacific Union International Inc.首席執行長Mark McLaughlin表示，從整個加州的情況來看，2017年上半年中國大陸買家貢獻的銷量同比下降50%。他說，公司已開始尋找「下一個國際買家」，在孟買等城市開展數字營銷活動。

The most recent restrictions amped up the $50,000-per-year currency exchange quota with regulations requiring overseas investors to disclose how they plan to use the funds, according to David Ji, director and head of research for Greater China for the global property firm Knight Frank LLP. Parties making a yuan loan to an overseas entity must now register the loan with the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and must keep the loan within a certain limit. The new rules also close a loophole to the $50,000 limit by banning individuals from pooling funds with family and friends.China』s foreign-exchange regulator also has broadened the clampdown to both domestic and multinational companies, instructing banks to clampdown on overseas remittances by companies.

根據最新的規定，要求海外投資者披露他們計劃如何使用這些資金的規定。向海外實體提供人民幣貸款者，如今必須在國家外管局登記，且必須在一定限額之內。新規還禁止個人利用家人和朋友的名義購匯，堵上了5萬美元換匯上限的一個漏洞。外管局還將管控範圍擴大至國內企業和跨國企業，指示銀行控制企業的對外匯款。

For the Chinese buyers who haven』t moved enough money offshore, 「it has been a challenge,」 said Brad Henderson, chief executive of Sotheby』s International Realty Canada. A report by Juwai, a website that connects Chinese buyers to overseas property listings, estimated that outbound real-estate investment by Chinese companies and individuals would drop by as much as 20% this year to $80 billion, down from $101.4 billion last year. Still, investment for 2017 is predicted to rank among the top three years in history, according to Juwai.

蘇富比國際地產加拿大區首席執行長Brad Henderson稱，對那些還沒有將足夠資金轉移到海外的人士來說，這是一個挑戰。連接中國買家與海外掛牌房地產的居外網的一篇報告估計，今年中國企業和個人的海外房地產投資將下降多達20%，至800億美元，不及去年的1,014億美元。不過居外網表示，預計2017年投資總額仍有望躋身歷年最高紀錄前三之列。

According to Ms. Lynn, buyers who would have traditionally paid cash for New York properties are now seeking mortgages. 「But they』re still having trouble getting enough for a deposit out, if it』s a $7 million apartment,」 Ms. Lynn said.She has instead directed potential buyers to rental apartments. This summer, she rented six apartments to potential buyers from China 「who realized how difficult it was to get the money out, decided to rent for one year, and start slowly moving money,」 she said.

根據Lynn的說法﹐傳統上原本會為紐約的房產支付現金的購房者現在正尋求抵押貸款。但Lynn表示﹐如果是一套售價700萬美元的公寓﹐他們要轉出足夠的定金仍然困難。她轉而為潛在購房者租賃公寓。今年夏季﹐她向來自中國的潛在購房者出租了六套公寓。她說，這些買家都意識到了要把資金轉出來有多困難﹐他們決定租一年﹐並開始緩慢轉移資金。

Mr. Henderson noted that it is common for incoming buyers to borrow or pool money with family already settled in Canada. 「How the money gets out of China is something we』re not always aware of,」 Mr. Henderson said. Mr. Henderson said he hasn』t seen a significant downturn in investment in popular Canadian markets such as Toronto and Vancouver, adding, 「where there』s a will, there』s a way.」

Henderson指出﹐前來購房的人士向已經居住在加拿大的家人借錢或合夥湊錢是種常見的做法。他表示﹐不是太了解他們如何把錢弄出中國。Henderson表示﹐在多倫多和溫哥華等加拿大熱門市場上﹐他沒看到投資大幅下降的情況。他補充說，有志者事竟成。