【實時】7月4日澳洲聯儲利率決議及政策申明

數據公布前，各大行預測

十大投行前瞻：澳洲聯儲7月料按兵不動，或難放鷹(一)；北京時間周二(7月4日)12:30將公布澳洲聯儲7月決議，包括大摩在內的十家大型投行發表了對此的前瞻，整體而言，市場似乎略微計價澳洲聯儲將加入其它主要央行的鷹派陣營，若7月決議不那麼鷹派，澳元或表現脆弱：① 巴克萊：料按兵不動，持續認為中期澳元表現將不及其他主要貨幣；② 德銀：當前預計其轉變6月的中性貨幣政策立場還尚早；③ 大摩：當前對澳元持中性立場，疲軟美元將支撐澳元；④ 法農：料持續中性維穩，並上調對就業市場的評估，或令澳元受到部分支撐；

⑤ 滙豐：貨幣政策聲明料不會做出任何明確的前瞻指引，將指出下個需關注的核心數據為二季度CPI；

http://news.fx678.com/201707041201251901.shtml⑥ 法巴：當前市場預計澳洲聯儲7月決議將做出鷹派轉變，不過可能令澳元多頭大感失望，宜於當前水平做空澳元；

http://news.fx678.com/201707041201251901.shtml⑦ 澳新銀行：料按兵不動，且不會發出鷹派信號，澳元多頭需警惕；

http://news.fx678.com/201707041201251901.shtml⑧ 澳洲國民銀行：貨幣政策立場料不會從中性轉為鷹派，但市場可能做出更樂觀的解讀；

http://news.fx678.com/201707041201251901.shtml⑨ 西太平洋銀行：料堅定維穩，就業及房屋市場不確定性猶存，持續預計今明兩年按兵不動；

http://news.fx678.com/201707041201251901.shtml⑩ 美銀：料仍維穩利率於1.5%的記錄低位，意外發出鷹派信號的幾率極低

利率決議公布

Reserve Bank of Australia July 4 2017 monetary policy Board meeting

Non surprise at all that it the cash rate target is left unchanged, the nquestion is how upbeat the Statement from Governor Lowe is.

Headlines via Reuters:

• House prices rising briskly in some markets
• Indicators of labour demand remain mixed
• Employment growth has been stronger over recent months
• Some signs housing market starting to cool
• Housing debt has outpaced slow growth in incomes
• Supervisory measures should help address debt risks
• Various forward-looking indicators point to employment growth going forward
• Rising A$ would complicate economic adjustment
• Economic outlook supported by low rates
• Wage growth remains low, likely to continue for a while yet
• Inflation expected to increase gradually as the economy strengthens
• Slow growth in real wages is restraining growth in household consumption
• Business conditions, investment have picked up
• Economic growth expected to strengthen gradually
• Broad-based pick-up in global economy continuing

The AUD is lower after the statement - Lowes statement is nnot as upbeat as the market was looking for. Watch 0.7650/60 for initialn resistance on any fill-in rally. And, I have the same comment as I had nFriday and Monday - 77 and surrounds is still a big reistiance area, nthere will be more work to be done around here.

Plenty of concern from the Bank on

• employment growth (indicators remain mixed)
• on slow wage growth (remains low, likely to stay that way for a while)
• the slow wage growth holding back demand (restraining growth in household consumption)
• housing debt outpacing incomes

On the positives:

• business conditions
• growth expected to slowly strengthen
• global economy picking up

Molecular Trading 官網

推薦閱讀：