高度依賴中國市場，韓國公司開始反思

01-27

原標題：As Leaders Argue, South Korea Finds China Is No Longer an Easy Sell

原文地址：https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/08/world/asia/china-south-korea-economy.html?_r=0

原文作者：MOTOKO RICH

Until recently, Beyond Cosmetics could not fill Chinese orders fast enough for its Green Piggy Collagen Jella Pack, a creamy beige substance containing pig collagen, or its Carbonated Bubble Clay Mask, which leaves the user』s face covered with foam.

直到最近，碧雅德公司的小青豬皮膠原蛋白面膜（一種含有豬膠原的米色奶油狀物質）和碳酸泡泡泥面膜（它會讓臉上蓋滿泡沫）在中國市場上總是供不應求。

Then, in November, international politics struck this South Korean maker of skin care products. As China』s ire grew over plans by Washington and Seoul to park a missile defense system on South Korean soil, sales of the two beauty aids fell to one-fifth of Beyond Cosmetics』 sales, from one-half.

不過，從去年11月起，國際政治開始衝擊這個韓國護膚品製造公司。由於薩德計劃引發了中國日益強烈的憤怒，這兩款護膚品的銷售額占碧雅德總銷售額的比重從二分之一下降至五分之一。

Now, as the deployment of the system begins this week and China threatens to punish South Korea further, companies like Beyond Cosmetics have been bracing for worse. The intensifying diplomatic ruckus is exposing deep cracks in South Korea』s economic success story and forcing the nation to confront its dependence on China, its largest trading partner.

隨著本周開始部署該系統，中國威脅要進一步懲罰韓國，碧雅德這樣的公司準備面臨更糟糕的情況。不斷升級的外交衝突正在暴露韓國經濟成功故事中的深層裂縫，迫使該國認識到自己對中國這個最大貿易夥伴的依賴。

Even before the current crisis, Beyond Cosmetics had started to look beyond China, where it was increasingly running into problems like tougher government rules and rising homegrown competition.

甚至在當前的危機之前，碧雅德已經開始關注中國之外的市場，因為在中國它遇到越來越多的問題，比如更嚴格的政府規定以及不斷增強的本土競爭。

「We thought we could do something better with our time than attempt to go further into the Chinese market,」 said Kim Byung-sun, the company』s vice president, adding that he traveled regularly to promote halal-certified products in Malaysia, a predominantly Muslim country, and long-lasting matte lipsticks that can withstand the humidity in Thailand.

「我們認為，與其進一步深入中國市場，不如把時間花在其他地方，」該公司副總裁金炳順(Kim Byung-sun)說。他還說，他經常去以穆斯林為主的馬來西亞推廣清真產品，去泰國推廣可以抵禦潮濕的持久啞光唇膏。

（圖：現在，新浦國際市場的購物者大多是韓國人。該市場的大橫幅用中文和英語歡迎外國遊客。最近這裡的生意看起來很蕭條。）

An export powerhouse that began its upward trajectory decades before Beijing embraced capitalist economics, South Korea has long benefited from China』s rise. Chinese factories are major buyers of Korean-made components. A growing Chinese middle class embraced Korean devices, cosmetics, television shows and music, often in shopping trips across the Yellow Sea.

韓國是個出口大國，在中國改革開放之前幾十年就進入了上升軌道，曾長期受益於中國的崛起。中國的工廠是韓國製造的部件的主要買家。在跨越黃海的購物之旅中，中國日益增長的中產階級欣然享受著韓國的電子設備、化妝品、電視節目和音樂。

All of that may be in jeopardy now. Consumer boycotts have hit Korean chain stores in China. K-pop shows there have been canceled. Just last week, the Chinese National Tourism Administration ordered regional travel agencies to halt sales of package tours to South Korea. But even before China began lashing out at South Korea, the economic relationship between the industrial giants had started to shift. China is increasingly a competitor as much as a customer for South Korea. Chinese companies have improved product quality and can compete on price, both at home and abroad, in everything from complex components to cosmetics to smartphones.

現在，所有這一切都可能處於危險之中。消費者的抵制已經在打擊中國的韓國連鎖店。韓國流行音樂表演也被取消。就在上周，中國國家旅遊局命令地方旅行社暫停銷售赴韓團體旅遊項目。不過早在中國開始嚴厲斥責韓國之前，這兩個工業大國之間的經濟關係久已經開始轉變。中國不再只是韓國的消費者，而越來越多地變成了競爭對手。中國公司提高了產品質量，在複合元件、化妝品和智能手機等各個方面在國內外取得了價格優勢。

That presents major challenges for a country where a bribery scandal has engulfed both the country』s president and the de facto chief of its biggest conglomerate, Samsung, and raised questions about whether an economy driven by exports and close ties between officials and big business have reached their limit. To thrive long term, experts say, South Korea needs to consider overhauls that will help empower entrepreneurs and spread wealth domestically.

這對韓國而言是重大挑戰，也引發了關於這個以出口以及官員和大企業的密切關係為驅動力的經濟體是否已達極限的質疑。該國總統及其最大的企業集團三星的實際領導人均已陷入賄賂醜聞。專家們認為，要想長期繁榮，韓國需要考慮進行重大改革，幫助賦予企業家力量，並在國內散播財富。

「A key question is whether Korea is going to be able to make a shift away from a trade- and export-led growth model that brought them dramatic economic success,」 said Mark W. Lippert, who recently left Seoul as the American ambassador to South Korea.

「關鍵問題是，韓國能否改變曾給它帶來巨大經濟成功的以貿易和出口為導向的增長模式，」前不久離開首爾的美國駐韓國大使馬克·W·利伯特說。

（圖：65歲的李清河表示，過去他每天大約向中國遊客銷售30個電飯煲。在上個周三，他一個也沒賣掉，他認為部署薩德是主要原因。）

Chinese manufacturers have started to make the parts and components that South Korean companies have been selling into China, where factory workers assemble them into products destined for European or American consumers. This so-called intermediary trade currently accounts for about three-quarters of all of South Korea』s exports to China.Chinese companies are also making more of their own consumer goods such as cars, phones and flat-panel television screens. Samsung, which commanded a 20 percent share of the Chinese cellphone market in 2012, now has only 6 percent, according to GfK, the market researcher. The top four best-selling cellphone brands in China, according to IDC, the technology research firm, are now made by Chinese companies.

中國製造商已經開始生產以往韓國公司銷往中國的零件和部件，中國工廠的工人將它們組裝起來，銷往歐洲或美國。這種所謂的中間貿易目前占韓國對中國出口總額的四分之三。中國公司也在更多地製造自己的消費產品，比如汽車、手機和平板電視屏幕。根據市場調查公司GFK的數據，2012年，三星佔中國手機市場20％的份額，而現在只佔6％。根據技術研究公司IDC的數據，現在，中國的前四大暢銷手機品牌都是本國品牌。

Mr. Kim, of Beyond Cosmetics, says Chinese cosmetics manufacturers have wooed South Korean research employees with salaries that are three times higher than what his company can offer, in addition to benefits like housing and cars.

碧雅德的金炳順稱，中國化妝品製造公司以三倍於他的公司的高薪吸引韓國研究人員，此外還提供住房和汽車等福利待遇。

In 2015 and 2016, South Korea』s exports fell for the first time in close to 60 years, the Korea International Trade Association said. Last year, exports to China slid 9.3 percent compared with a year earlier as the Chinese economy slowed down, though those figures were up in the first two months of this year. 「Regardless of the industry, Korea has depended on China too much,」 said Kang Seon-jou, professor of trade and economic studies at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy.

韓國貿易協會稱，2015年和2016年，韓國的出口額在近60年來首次下降。去年，隨著中國經濟增長放緩，韓國對中國的出口額比前年下滑了9.3％，儘管這些數字在今年前兩個月有所回升。「韓國的不管哪個行業都過度依賴中國，」韓國國家外交學院的貿易和經濟研究教授姜善祖說。

（圖：新浦國際市場的一家炸雞店的顧客大多是韓國人。）

Beijing has protested South Korea』s agreement to host the missile defense system — called the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense system, or Thaad — and the Chinese state news media have been calling for a boycott, affecting everything from South Korean pop stars and television programs to Korean-owned supermarkets. This week, alarmed by the most recent test of ballistic missiles by North Korea, the United States began to deploy the system.That is affecting an effort by South Korea to reap more economic power from its popular culture. Several musical events featuring its performers in China have been canceled, and South Korean dramas have been pulled from Chinese online video services.

北京抗議韓國同意部署導彈防禦系統——它被稱為末端高空區域防禦系統——中國官方新聞媒體呼籲對它進行抵制，這對韓國流行歌星、電視節目以及韓國超市等各個方面都產生了影響。本周，由於對朝鮮最近的彈道導彈試驗感到擔憂，美國開始部署該系統。這影響了韓國從其流行文化的推廣中獲得更多經濟實力的努力。韓國藝人在中國舉辦的幾場音樂活動已被取消，韓國電視劇被從中國的在線視頻服務中剔除。

Lotte, a South Korean conglomerate that is providing land for the Thaad deployment, has reported that its online stores in China have been hacked and that half its China-based shops have been shut down for reported fire code violations.Although Lotte is reluctant to blame the Thaad backlash, Chinese consumers seem ready to do so. Over the weekend, hundreds of angry protesters, waving Chinese flags and singing, assembled outside Lotte shops and demanded that the public boycott South Korean products.

樂天集團(Lotte)是為部署薩德提供土地的韓國企業集團。它聲稱自己在中國的網店遭到黑客攻擊，它在中國的半數商店因被舉報違反消防規定而被關閉。雖然樂天不願將這些歸因於中國人對薩德的抵制，但中國消費者似乎準備這樣做。上周末，數百名憤怒的抗議者揮舞著中國國旗，唱著國歌，聚集在樂天店外，呼籲公眾抵制韓國商品。

In Incheon, a port city less than 250 miles from the nearest port in China, visiting Chinese consumers arrive by ferry to snap up items like rice cookers, toilet seats, food and makeup.Still, local merchants are experiencing what they say is a slowdown in tourist activity from China. Incheon officials said that this month, several large Chinese businesses that were planning to send thousands of employees to company workshops in the city canceled the visits.

港口城市仁川離中國最近的港口不到250英里。中國消費者乘渡輪來到仁川，購買電飯煲、馬桶座、食品和化妝品等商品。不過，當地商家正在經歷他們所說的中國旅遊活動的減少。仁川的官員稱，本月，原計劃派數千名員工參加該市舉辦的公司講習班的幾家大型中國企業取消了訪問活動。

Although the number of Chinese visitors to Incheon rose in 2016 over a year earlier, when an outbreak of Middle East respiratory syndrome caused tourism to plunge, the numbers have not returned to 2014 levels. Yoo Jeong-bok, Incheon』s mayor, said in an interview at city hall, 「If we didn』t have these geopolitical security issues, I think these 2016 figures would have been much higher.」

雖然2016年仁川的中國遊客數量比2015年有所回升——2015年，中東呼吸綜合症的爆發導致旅遊業大蕭條——但還沒有回到2014年的水平。仁川市市長劉正福在市政廳接受採訪時表示：「如果沒有這些地緣政治性的安全問題，我想2016年的數字要高得多。」

In the underground Sinpo International Market, a warren of small retail stalls selling clothing, handbags and used cellphones, business was sluggish on a recent visit.「Things are really bad right now,」 said Kim Min-seop, 52, owner of Mirae Mobile, where he sells recycled cellphones and iPads. 「But to be honest, what can the government do? This is such a sensitive political issue.」

前不久，在位於地下的新浦國際市場，出售服裝、手袋和舊手機的小攤販的生意看起來很蕭條。「目前情況真的很糟，」 52歲的金民燮)說。他的店鋪Mirae Mobile銷售二手手機和iPad。「不過老實說，政府能怎麼辦？這是一個非常敏感的政治問題。」

Down the hall, at a tiny skin care salon, Kim Chun-yeo, 57, the owner, sat alone on a small stool waiting for a customer to stop by. An ethnic Korean who was born in China, Ms. Kim opened her stall two years ago. About half of her business came from Chinese visitors, including a steady stream of cruise ship and ferry workers who wanted facials. Now, she』s lucky to get one or two customers a day. Ms. Kim never thought she would need to pay so much attention to politics. 「I think the politicians have not done well,」 she said. 「Because for the economy to be good, we have to have a relationship with China. I think Korea should be smarter by trying to cooperate with China.」

在同一排的一個小護膚店裡，57的老闆金春如獨自坐在一個小凳子上，等待顧客。金是出生在中國的朝鮮族，兩年前開了這家小店。她大約一半的生意來自中國遊客，包括定期前來進行面部護理的郵輪和渡輪員工。現在，運氣好的話，她一天能有一兩個顧客。金春如從沒想到她需要如此關心政治。「我認為那些政客沒做好，」她說，「因為要想搞好經濟，必須搞好與中國的關係。我覺得韓國應該聰明點，努力跟中國合作。」