如何靠販Supreme成為百萬富翁？

題圖來自http://wealthsimple.com

我從來不是Supreme的受眾：

a. 沒感受到Box Logo的美感

b. 我不是板仔

c. 太貴，炒貨的價格夠碰到很多設計師品牌了。美潮的話Stussy，Diamond，RVCA之類的對我而言就夠了，性價比可以接受。

但是研究潮流/時尚的話這個牌子又繞不過，前些天一家金融背景的公司Wealthsimple做了對Supreme的解構，角度跳脫於潮流軟文，倒是還算新穎，讀完不禁感慨卧槽居然如此，防不勝防。故此簡單編譯重點。

原文在此The Supreme Retirement Plan: How to Become a Millionaire by Flipping Streetwear

Part One: The View from the Window

第一章*窗外

if you polled everyone in a Supreme store about what"s on their minds, approximately zero percent would say "retirement," and yet most of them are hustling hard to grow their money into more money. But we also did it because we respect the hustle of resellers—it"s entrepreneurial, it"s hard work (camping on a sidewalk sucks) and it"s profitable. And the point of Wealthsimple is to help people turn the proceeds of their various hustles into real wealth.

Supreme的販子們就是Hustler，1當事業干，2這是個撒汗的辛苦活，3當然是有利可圖

Our offices happen to be across the street from Supreme, and as we watched people wait in line for hours every Thursday from our window (that"s when 「drops」 happen—new limited edition gear hits the stores), we started thinking: we salute all the people waiting in line out there on Thursday mornings, but we don"t want you to be waiting in line 30 years from now. We think you should be millionaires instead.

每次Supreme上新的周四，從一大早開始就是浩蕩的排隊。

筆者註：這算個毛排隊，春運不說了，西安過年排臘牛肉的隊都比這狠多了。

但從一個街頭排隊的Hustler賺至百萬富翁，鬼知道要多少年。

Part Two: The Challenge

第二章*挑戰

「Supreme is the only company anywhere, outside of like Tesla or some shit, where the sell-through rate is literally like 99 or 100 percent,」 Lawrence Schlossman, brand director at the premier online reseller Grailed, told Wealthsimple. 「I can"t think of any other brand that"s comparable. It』s hard to really put into words how much bigger the demand and want and audience is for Supreme products versus the amount of Supreme that exists in the world. Proportionally speaking, I can"t think of another business that has been so successful employing scarcity on purpose.」

一家高級電商的品牌主管是這麼描述Supreme的，「Supreme是唯一一個售罄率能在99%以上的品牌，沒其他任何牌子能比。我特么實在想不出這個世界對Supreme的需求量有多大，受眾有多少！」

筆者註：看看Supreme的初始零售價格，也確實是主理人說的「Affordable，可以買得起的街頭滑板品牌」。但是市場經濟嘛需求這麼大，價格被炒上天也符合經濟學原理。因此有不少人花大把鈔票買回來Sup說質量差，那這幫傢伙確實是冤大頭，Sup本來就不是天價物料堆砌的奢侈逸品，設計感也沒什麼談的（Box Logo，聯名照片Tee），埋單的僅是炫耀心態。

And we got to thinking: Supreme is a fascinating economy. And because we are first and foremost data and finance nerds (except for Pawel, who besides being a data guy is also a streetwear aficionado), we set a challenge for ourselves. If we used the power of Wealthsimple"s passive investing platform, could reselling Supreme make you a millionaire before you"re sixty?

於是Wealthsimple的這幫金融背景的nerd就做了個模型，看看能否在60歲前靠販賣Supreme成為百萬富翁？

Yes, it could. Here"s how to do it.

這幫傢伙說能。

Part Three: Learn the Rules of Reselling

第三章*販子的奧義

Rule 1: The box logo crushes pretty much everything. Supreme does some novel stuff. But the box logo always seems to appreciate more reliably than whatever else they try. Bonus points for a localized launch, like the above Paris box logo T-shirt, which fetched $430 (already worn once!) in part because you could only get it at the launch of the Paris store.

秘法1： Box Logo的單品永遠是你大爺。雖然Supreme會搞些新噱頭，新設計，不過Box Logo單品永遠都保值。比如說在巴黎發售的限定款，即便上身穿了次，現在還可以賣出430刀的價格，ROI如下，差不多8倍。

Rule 2: Collaborations are usually in demand. Though you do have to be careful about which brand Supreme is collaborating with—high-end partners like Stone Island and mass companies like Nike (above) have worked well because the brands complement each other. If you can combine two rules (like this Comme des Gar?ons T-Shirt, which checks both the "box logo" and "collaboration" boxes) it"ll be even more likely to be a win.

秘法2：聯名款永遠有需求。Supreme每年都會做無數聯名，比如和Stone Island，Nike，不過如果你能收到有聯名Box Logo加身的貨，穩賺。比如今年和CDG的聯名。（個人吐槽，這個box logo簡直沒技術含量的難看，反轉+疊加。）

這雙聯名Nike Dunk SB的ROI是22倍.

Rule 3: Clothes outperform objects. Maybe it"s because the novelty of objects wears out quickly or because Supreme is, after all, mostly a clothing company, but this seems to be the way things go. Evidence? Check out the airhorn that nets $14—hardly worth sleeping on a sidewalk for.

秘法3：衣服比其他物件兒賺。相比於其他潮流物件，衣服不過時，有賺頭，畢竟Supreme說穿了還是個服裝品牌。比如這款Supreme的汽笛，原價也就14刀，你在馬路上睡一宿搶個這賺的差價，覺得坑么？

Rule 4: The surest thing is to sell quickly. Some things just keep going up in value; other things are stocked so deeply they"ll never really appreciate. Knowing which one"s which is awfully hard. If you have some otherworldly sixth sense about which Supreme items to buy, by all means go nuts. For the rest of us, your best bet is to unload while the pan is still hot, maybe even the same day you buy—wait too long and you risk that people won"t even remember they wanted it. (Double benefit: the sooner you invest your money, the more benefit you get from it thanks to compounding.)

秘法4：及時脫手。有的玩意會持續升值，有的則會一直吃灰。但要對此做出判斷並沒那麼容易。除非你有特別牛X的第六感，不然還是像我們一樣，秉承著速賣的原則，趁著話題熱度還沒過儘快落袋為安。（此外，早日套現，早日享受複利。）

Rule 5: Even if you follow these rules completely, there will be surprises. Why is a motorcycle helmet listed for $2,000 at Stadium Goods, our favorite reselling store? Why did a brick—which seems to break several of the cardinal rules of Supreme investment—become a better investment than a crowbar? Because the world is not fully predictable. A world ruled in part by teens, even less so.

秘法5： 前面說的也不一定對。你看Supreme這個機車頭盔現在賣2K刀，憑啥？Supreme出的那塊磚升值率也不錯，比撬棍好得多，又是為啥？因為這世界就無法預測，潮流青年的口味實在是難以捉摸。

筆者註：撬棍貶值到原價1/4，可以低吸一波啊。

Part Four: Invest Your Resells

第四章*二次投資

So how much savings are we talking? How can you become a millionaire just by reselling Supreme? Here"s our math.

按上面的套路咱們賺了多少了？離百萬富翁還差多少？來看看我們的演算法。

一年倒149件貨，每件賺67刀，一年純利1W刀達成。

We were conservative. No Jeff Koons skate deck money (a set of three recently sold for more than $15,000)—just the hard work of showing up at the store (or online) and buying stuff at retail. And let』s assume you end up buying a bit more than 25% of them—149 items per year. If you sell everything a year later, your profit will be about $10,000 (we examined 40 representative items from last year—their average profit was about $67 per item). That』s not even assuming a couple items end up becoming really valuable, which is usually the case a couple times a year (last year』s pink denim jacket is a good example of that from 2016—it has sold for $1,000).

以上還是保守計算。個別逸品比如Jeff Koons聯名的滑板（最近賣了一套三件，1.5萬刀），不過要搞到這樣的東西線下線上花功夫刷臉吧。我們假設每年買到149件貨，次年出售，總獲利會是1萬刀（我們抽樣了40款單品，一年後每件利潤平均為67刀)。此計算模型並未錄入天價單品，而這樣的貨品每年都會有不少（去年有個粉色的牛仔外套最終成交價是1K刀）。

Now how do you turn $10,000 per year into $1,000,000? That"s our speciality. We recommend using a combination of extremely low fees, beautifully efficient investment portfolios, and extra-awesome elegant simple software. You know, something like Wealthsimple. It"s way better than putting it in a shoebox. Or a savings account.

下一步就是如何把10K翻到1M的幹活了。 來Wealthsimple做投資吧，我們給你理財.................

顧爺廣告體的借屍還魂，軟文參考模板中西共鑒。

防不勝防啊！

不過你以為我這篇完了？沒呢，我是來「干」人的 。

國內某潮流媒體的小編對這篇的解讀可以看下圖。

Sigh，有么的文化朋友？

整篇文章通篇在講販子，到你這就成了Supreme官方策略了，請去學學Hustler的概念。

別自己加戲了，原文作者白紙黑字哪條是扯麵料了？還不及NOAH和Palace.

「如果繼續留存，也極有可能轉化為100萬美元，當然只是時間的問題。」

呵呵你存著吧，發霉了我倒是覺得行，另外這不是時間的問題，是腦子的問題。

終了。

推薦閱讀：