巴基斯坦打得過印度嗎？
經濟政治文化，覺得印度那麼大的體量，印巴戰爭為什麼沒有取得爭議地區進行的控制權，而是停火線
巧的是，印巴前天正在發生衝突，所以這個問題也並不像看起來那樣缺乏現實意義。
既然這個問題已經有了些現實意義，那麼就不能光讓印度人在這裡抒發愛國熱情。我們或許也需要聽一聽巴基斯坦人的聲音。剛巧，最近在Quora看到了一個巴基斯坦網友關於近期印巴衝突的回答，粗糙的翻譯了一下，供大家參考。
最後簡單介紹一下這個作者，他是一個巴基斯坦公務員，立場比較親中(廢話)，喜歡玩守望先鋒的天使，也比較關注時事政治，在國際關係方面有很多獨到的見解，比如他就非常清晰的認識到，中印和解的最大輸家絕不是中國，而是美國，因為中國除了印度以外，還有其他拉攏巴基斯坦的手段(比如中巴經濟走廊)，但是美國想拉攏印度，就只能靠巴基斯坦。甚至在某種程度上，中國還是歡迎印巴達成和解的，畢竟中國也不希望印度總在中巴經濟走廊上搗亂。但前提是在上海合作組織的框架下。
作者：Reek Zhang
鏈接：[長文渣翻]聖戰的時代已經結束了——巴鐵一公務員回應近日印巴衝突…… - 墨者是一種思想 - 知乎專欄
來源：知乎著作權歸作者所有。商業轉載請聯繫作者獲得授權，非商業轉載請註明出處。聖戰的時代已經結束了。21世紀的「聖戰」，是建設你的經濟，教你的孩子讀書、識字，為家人的健康投資，獲取技術能力以及促進社會寬容。
Source :Ahmed"s answer to How should Pakistan respond if India declares war on us?
原文鏈接: 如果印度向我們宣戰，巴基斯坦應該如何應對？- Usama Ahmed 的答案
So the scenario is that war has been declared and all peaceful, negotiations are off the table.
假設情況是這樣的，戰爭已經打響，所有的和平手段都已窮盡。
Well this would be a war of a few Firsts. It would be our first defensive war, fought under a democratic government.
那麼，這場戰爭會有些許「第一次」——這將是我們第一次，在一個民主政府領導下，進行防禦性戰爭。
What should our response be? Unite as a nation and defend the country at all costs. For now we must defend the country with every weapon available to us. What ever that involves.
我們應該怎麼做呢？我們應該團結在一起，擰成一股繩，不惜一切代價的保衛我們的祖國。目前來說，就是動用一切我們能夠接觸到的武器，去保衛這個國家。無論那牽扯到什麼 (譯者註：他是在暗示核武器嗎？)。
This is not a war where some tin pot military dictator is engaging in military adventurism against India like in the past. A democratic nation has been attacked and it must call upon its armed forces and its populace to do their part in defending the nation.
這場戰爭與以往不同，它並不是軍事獨裁者的窮兵黷武。(而是)一個民主國家被攻擊了，(所以)她必須召喚她的武裝和人民，讓他們履行自己的使命。
When you are attacked, you don』t flip over and hope the enemy will show mercy and be gentle. Any weakness, divisiveness or hesitation on our part will be exploited and invite further aggression. Fight like a raging animal backed into a corner, seeking to inflict maximum damage.
當你被攻擊了，你就不可能指望敵人展現出任何仁慈和憐憫。我方的任何軟弱、躊躇和不團結，都會被敵人充分利用，進而招致更猛烈的攻擊。我們只能背水一戰，給予敵人最大程度的傷害。
Once the war is over its time for cooler heads to prevail (assuming India and Pakistan still exist at its end). We need to ask ourselves some hard questions and think about them logically. Both the Civil and Military leadership need to be on board in this.
一旦戰爭結束，就到了清醒頭腦的時間(假設印度和巴基斯坦那個時候還存在)。我們需要詰問自己一些艱難的問題，冷靜地思考他們。不管是政治領袖還是軍事將領，都要好好想一下：
1、Were the Uri and Pathankot attacks carried out by Pakistani based terror outfits who may have agency support? If so, what are these outfits and who is backing them? They must be held accountable and punished accordingly.
猜測1：Uri (譯者注: 印控克什米爾一個印度陸軍基地)和 Pathankot 的恐怖襲擊是由巴基斯坦背景的恐怖組織發動的嗎？他們是否得到了「有關部門」的支持？如果是的話，這些組織是什麼？他們身後的人又是誰？他們必須得到相應的追究和懲罰！
2、If no evidence is found on the above point, is it possible that while the military, Intel and civil agencies were not involved, perhaps our territory was used without our knowledge by terrorists? If so, we need to tighten border controls and continue effective campaigns like Zarb-e-Azb to make Pakistan free of terror. Invite India』s investigators and show them proof no agency was complicit.
猜測2：如果沒有證據表明上述猜測是正確的，那麼有沒有可能，雖然軍事、情報和文職等有關部門沒有捲入於此，但是我們的國土，在我們不知情的情況下，被恐怖分子利用了呢？如果是的話，我們就需要收緊邊境控制，繼續進行諸如Zarb-e-Azb(巴基斯坦的一場大規模反恐行動，大量東突分子在這一行動中被擊斃)等富有成效的行動，以便將巴基斯坦從恐怖主義的荼毒中解放出來。邀請印度的調查人員來訪問，並向他們證明沒有「有關部門」捲入。
3、If both #1 and #2 are untrue and neither was any agency involved nor any Pakistani terror outfit, then we must entertain the possibility that it may have been Kashmiri militants who have no link to Pakistan or that this was a false flag operation by the Indians themselves designed to distract from the Kashmiri uprising and the Indian military response to it.
猜測3：如果前兩項猜測都被否定了——既沒有什麼「有關部門」捲入，也沒有什麼巴基斯坦背景的恐怖組織，那麼有必要考慮一下這些可能——是否是與巴基斯坦無關的克什米爾軍事組織所為？又或者是印度實施的、用以混淆視聽的苦肉計？
4、The Samjhota Bombing has raised concerns that Indian extremists organizations with ties to Hindutva may have infiltrated the Indian military. Which is not surprising considering their strong presence in the political spectrum.
Samjhota 爆炸 (07年的印巴友誼快線爆炸)讓人們開始擔憂，印度教極端組織可能會滲透到印度軍方。考慮到他們在政治光譜中的強大存在感，這也不足為奇。
5、In that case, we must be alert to the fact that Pakistan could be made a scapegoat for Indian failures or India could be using a causes beli to launch war against Pakistan to further their strategic objectives in the region (dismemberment of the country, de-nuclearise it etc).
既然這樣，我們就必須警惕這一事實——巴基斯坦可能被印度用來轉移國內矛盾，或者印度可能正準備靠一個借口來發動針對巴基斯坦的戰爭，以便推進他們在南亞地區的戰略目標(肢解這個國家，或者解除她的核武器)。
6、In case of #3, we can only strengthen our defenses and continue on. All aspects of our nationhood must be strengthened including political, social, economic, military and diplomatic. Promote tolerance and Sufism over Wahabi-Salafi intolerance. Promote women』s empowerment and education. Promote strong economic growth and sustainable development. Promote a strong national defense but more military accountability. Promote better ties with all nations, India included.
如果是猜測3，我們能做的就只有加強防禦，不斷的加強。我們國家的任何方面都要加強，包括政治、社會、經濟、軍事和外交。用寬容和蘇菲主義(譯者註：伊斯蘭神秘主義，流行於中亞和中國西部)壓過狹隘的瓦哈比-薩拉菲主義。促進婦女就業和教育。推動經濟增長和可持續發展。推進國防現代化，塑造強大而又有紀律的軍隊。推進與各國的關係，包括印度。
If we have our house in order, then no nation can break us. If we have held ourselves accountable, then no one can blame us. And if we have maintained national strength in all spheres, then no one can defeat us.
如果我們確保自己的房屋井然有序，那就沒人可以摧毀它；如果我們能夠自覺肩負起責任，就不會有人來指責我們；如果我們能夠在各個方面都保持強大，那就沒人能夠擊敗我們。
If the attack originated in Pakistan or had links in Pakistan, we must deal with the perpetrators sternly. Give the Indians access for interrogation, deport if you must and coordinate border patrols with the Indian BSF. This shouldn』t be new to us. We have cooperated with India over terrorism before:
如果這一攻擊源於巴基斯坦境內或者與巴基斯坦有關，我們就必須嚴肅的處理肇事者。給予印度人審訊的權力，在必要的情況下驅逐罪犯，以及與印度邊防軍進行聯合巡邏。我們並不應該對此感到陌生，我們之前就與印度人進行過反恐合作。
Pakistan NSA warned Ajit Doval of 26/11-type hit on Maha Shivratri
It"s a good example of the Pak NSA alerting the Indian side over intelligence that terrorists were about to strike India. This should be bolstered.
以上是一個很好的例子，巴基斯坦國家安全局向印度方面，提供了恐怖分子可能會攻擊印度的情報。我們還可以做得更好。
But if the alternative is true and the attack was done by Kashmiri Militants with no link to Pakistan or was a false flag by India to detract international attention from the Kashmir uprising while making Pakistan a scapegoat, then there』s not much for us to do. We must continue to strengthen our nation in all spheres to deter aggression.
但如果另一種可能是真的——這一攻擊是與巴基斯坦無關的克什米爾軍事組織發動的；或者是印度的苦肉計，試圖拿巴基斯坦當替罪羊，以便將國際社會的注意力從克什米爾起義引開(譯者註：外媒稱印度強力鎮壓克什米爾抗議者：逮捕近萬人，這件事後面還會提到)。那樣的話，我們就別無選擇了。我們只能繼續建設我們的國家，讓她在各個領域都變得強大，以便阻止侵略。
Remember this: For all of Mr. Modi』s talk, the Baloch will never break away from Pakistan if they WANT to stay a part of Pakistan. The same goes for all other provinces. We need to continue the process of reconciliation and provincial autonomy, giving our Baloch brothers a say in their province, continue political devolution like the 18th amendment and the NFC award and grant as much autonomy as legal to local bodies and provinces.
請記住：任憑莫迪老仙如何法力無邊，只要俾路支人自己想要留在巴基斯坦，俾路支就不會分裂出去。這個道理同樣適用於其他省份。我們需要繼續推進民族和解進程和省級自治；要在他們自己的省份，給我們的俾路支兄弟一個說話的權力；要繼續推進諸如第十八修正案、國家財政委員會獎(National Finance Commission Award)等政治分權進程，在法律範圍內，儘可能多的授予各省份和地方團體自治權力。
We can build all the mega projects we want in Baluchistan, but the Baloch don』t want more high ways and mining projects. They want a say in what goes on in Baluchistan. They want political power and a voice. Let us give it to them. Musharraf, for all his military prowess and heavy economic investment in Balochistan, never could defeat the Baloch insurgents. The Americans for all their military might and 15 years of war, could never bring the Pashtun Taliban to heel. It was only through negotiation, political process, give and take and democracy that Baloch nationalists were bought back to the table. And today they are sitting as Chief Ministers and Assembly Men in the province and countless Baloch militants are laying down arms. This is perhaps the greatest achievement of Pakistani Democracy to date. And it was the triumph of Political sweet talk over Military brutality.
只要我們想，我們就能在俾路支斯坦建設任何大型項目，但是俾路支人不想要更多的高速路和採礦工程了。在關於俾路支的事情上，他們希望能說上話。他們想要政治權力和發言權。那我們就給他們吧。任憑穆沙拉夫如何往俾路支投入大量軍隊和經濟建設資金，他依舊難以戰勝俾路支的起義者。美國人可是砸了15年的軍費，不是照樣無法迫使普什圖塔利班屈服嗎？只有通過和平談判、政治進程、妥協、取捨和民主才能夠將俾路支民族主義者帶回到談判桌。而今天，無數俾路支軍事組織放下了武器，他們的領袖成為了省長和參議員。這或許是迄今為止，巴基斯坦民主進程中的最大成就。親切友好的交談代替了戰場上的你死我活。
Pakistan must also harbor no illusions about Kashmir. Kashmiris never wanted to break away from India until India committed their own political blunders such as toughening military activity in the region and revoking Article 370 (The Article hasn』t been revoked yet, there is only a significant political push to revoke it, it is still in effect). They can blame Pakistan all they want, but it wasn"t the ISI that created the current unrest in the valley (The ISI just doesn』t have that capability, although they would love to be credited for it). Kashmiris aren』t dying and facing bullets because the ISI paid them to do so. They have grievances against India that are political in nature. This is a lesson for Pakistan too. The moment India relaxes its attitude towards Kashmir and goes for political negotiation with the Kashmiris, the Kashmiri unrest will disappear. So we should also not harbor any fantasies of Kashmiris wanting to become part of Pakistan and what not. Kashmiris don』t face armed troops and pellet guns to become another province of Pakistan.
巴基斯坦同樣要放棄對克什米爾的幻想。克什米爾絕不想從印度分裂，除非印度人自己犯下致命的政治錯誤，比如激化矛盾和軍事對抗烈度，或者廢除憲法第370條(譯者注:該條款規定，如果印度政府想要開採克什米爾的礦產，必須徵得當地政府同意)(作者注: 這一條款還未被廢除，但一股強大的政治推動力正試圖廢除他)。如果印度人高興的話，儘管去指責巴基斯坦好了，但是克什米爾的騷亂，又不是巴基斯坦三軍情報局(ISI)造成的(ISI可沒有這個能耐，儘管他們樂於將這一功勞攬在自己身上)。克什米爾人甘於冒著印度的子彈前進，可不是因為拿了ISI的錢。他們向印度抱怨，是很自然的政治行為。這對巴基斯坦也是一個警示。只有當印度人向克什米爾敞開胸懷，與其進行政治談判的那一天，克什米爾的騷亂才會消失。所以我們不應該對克什米爾加入巴基斯坦抱有任何幻想。克什米爾人不會遭遇大屠殺然後加入巴基斯坦(譯者註：暗示47年針對南亞穆斯林的屠殺，印巴分治進程因此加快)。
And since we are on the topic of Kashmir, we must talk about our Hafiz Saeed』s and Maulana Masood Azhars. We must tell them firmly that while they are welcome to continue their excellent charity work in the country, the lashkars must disband any independent operations. That era of Jihad is over. 21st Century Jihad is building your economy, teaching kids to read, investing in health care, gaining technological competence and promoting tolerance in society. If they can help with that, well and good. But the time of insurgency and militancy is over and the new realities must dawn on them. Because even if Uri and Pathankot were not Pakistan』s fault, letting these folks and their organizations operate so freely in Pakistan will always be a black mark on us. Tito』s Guerrillas and Mao』s insurgents became the peoples army once their wars ended. Ours ended in 1948. So let them become part of the regular army under strict command and control or let them stay restricted to charity. The Hamid Gul doctrine of replicating the Afghan Jihad in Kashmir should be buried as a bad idea.
既然我們提到了克什米爾，那就必須說一下我們的 Hafiz Saeed』s 和 Maulana Masood Azhars (譯者註：兩個武裝組織頭目，策劃實施了多起針對印度的恐怖襲擊，中國一直因為藏獨問題而拒絕將其列入聯合國制裁名單)。我們必須明確的告訴他們，我們歡迎你們作為有活力的社會組織，從事一些慈善活動，但自行其是的"虔誠軍"必須被解散。聖戰的時代已經結束了，21世紀的「聖戰」，是建設你的經濟，教你的孩子讀書、識字，為家人的健康投資，獲取技術能力以及促進社會寬容。如果他們能在這些方面幫上忙，那當然好。但他們必須學會理解新的現狀——叛亂和戰爭的時代已經結束了。因為即使 Uri 和 Pathankot 的恐怖襲擊不是巴基斯坦的錯，讓這群貨色在巴基斯坦來去自如，對我們來說也實在是太沒面子。當戰爭結束的時候，鐵托的游擊隊和毛的起義軍成為了正規的人民軍隊。我們的戰爭在1948年就結束了。所以招安他們吧，然後用軍隊的紀律約束他們。試圖在克什米爾複製「阿富汗聖戰」的Hamid Gul主義會玩火自焚 (Hamid Gul是原來的巴基斯坦三軍情報局主管，曾支持阿富汗聖戰者反抗蘇聯)。
Summary
總結
Pakistan is not the same nation in 2016 that it was in 2001. The Long years have changed us a lot, haven』t they. For once, the Army is staying away from the Presidency. Some semblance of democracy is becoming commonplace. Generals are being dragged into courts and fired for corruption. People are marching in the streets and the air is electric with passionate democratic debates. TV and media dare to question those who were once questionable. Elections are being held and their results accepted. The democrats know that no coup is going to make martyrs of them and they will be kicked out of office like the PPP was in 2013 if they don』t perform. Our national unity has healed and strengthened a lot since the elections of 2013 and the tenure of Army Chief Raheel Sharif.
2016年的巴基斯坦，已經和2001年不一樣了。漫長的時間早已改變了我們，「他們」和"他們"對我們對我看法卻沒有變。這一次，軍政已經分離。民主開始變得有模有樣。將軍們因為腐敗而鋃鐺入獄。人民走上街頭，空氣中擦出了民主辯論的火花。電視和媒體敢於詰問一些值得詰問的問題。選舉成功舉行了，結果也還算可以接受。民主人士終於不用擔心，自己會在軍事政變中成為烈士了，他們也不會像13年的PPP那樣，因為不肯合作而被掃地出門。自從2013年的選舉以及謝里夫上台以來，我們的國家變得空前的團結。
Our Army too has changed. It is not an army of property dealers and overweight officers who spent their lives in Air conditioned offices. Walk around the checkpoints and the barracks of army units today. You will see men who have seen battle in the remote regions of the tribal areas. You will see officers driving shitty cars and living paycheck to paycheck but have killed Talibs with their own hands in the North West. Its an army that has faced the greatest scourge of terror in our existence and defeated it to a great extent. The current Army Chief is heralded in a manner no Chief has been honored before.
我們的軍隊同樣改變了。他們不再是有錢人的私人部隊，或者全副武裝坐在辦公室了吹著空調、喝咖啡的大爺。現在，他們開始出去巡邏，各個部隊也都互相團結。現在，你可以看到真正的男人，曾經在邊遠的部落地區直面戰爭的男人；你還可以看到，官兵們即使裝備簡陋、薪水微薄，但哪怕徒手也要殺死敵人。這隻軍隊面臨著前所未有的苦難，但依舊盡最大努力戰勝了它。我軍現在的總司令，在某種程度上可以稱之為先驅，在他之前，沒有哪個總司令如此可敬。
We need not be insecure or nervous in the slightest. We just need to maintain our progress towards democracy, accountability, political discourse and political reconciliations.
我們絲毫不必感到焦慮不安，我們只需要按照自身的節奏，穩步推進民主、責任制、政治和解與政治協商。
On Kashmir, our stance must be principled but not intruding. Protest the treatment of people injured in riots but harbor no illusions about Kashmir wanting to be part of Pakistan. Disband the lashkars in Pakistan even if they were not involved in Uri and Patahnkot. Guard against any scapegoating of Pakistan and any false accusations against Pakistan.
在克什米爾方面，我們既要堅持原則，又不能粗暴干涉。我們要聲援那些在騷亂中受傷的人們，但不能幻想克什米爾會成為巴基斯坦的一部分。解散巴基斯坦境內的"虔誠軍"，即便他們沒有捲入近期的襲擊。警惕任何把巴基斯坦當做替罪羊的可能，以及任何對巴基斯坦的錯誤指控。
And continue to make Pakistan strong in every field. Might is the only true equalizer in the world. After 2003, Libya made overtures to the West, granting billion dollar contracts to the French and Italians because Gaddafi feared being overthrown like Saddam. He grovelled at the feet of the Western nations and did everything they asked. And NATO still destroyed Libya and murdered Gaddafi when the Arab spring came. Because Libya was weak. And Libya invited aggression.
同事還要繼續加強巴基斯坦各方面的建設。或許這是世界上唯一確定的事。03年以後，利比亞倒向了西方，承認了與法國和義大利之間的數十億美元的條約。這全是因為卡扎菲擔心自己像薩達姆一樣被推翻。他親吻西方的腳(俗稱跪舔)，做了所有西方讓他做的事。但是當阿拉伯之春到來，北約還是毀掉了利比亞並且謀殺了卡扎菲。因為利比亞太弱了，弱國無外交。
Same goes for Pakistan. Cooperate with India over terrorism and do not let our soil be used by any terror faction. Cooperate in a civil manner over border disputes, trade, water and what not. But never let down our guard for India or any other country. Continue to invest in strong national defense and strong retaliatory capability. We need not be warm and cuddly with each other, but we can be coldly civil. Because Weakness will always invite aggression.
同樣的道理也適用於巴基斯坦。我們要和印度進行反恐合作，並且不能讓我們的國土被任何恐怖勢力利用。和平地處理邊境糾紛、貿易、水資源等問題。但是絕不能放鬆對印度(以及任何國家的)警惕。要繼續進行國防投入，加強我們的反擊能力。對於印巴關係，既不需要溫暖也不需要冷酷，我們需要的只是冷靜和禮貌。說到底還是那句話，弱國無外交，落後就要挨打。
印度土地比巴基斯坦大4倍，人口多5倍，gdp更是十倍，而且巴基斯坦還有根本不聽號令的部落區，和死命扯後腿的伊斯蘭教。你猜要幾個巴基斯坦才能打贏印度？
三次印巴戰爭印度都贏了啊？其中第三次印度還肢解了巴基斯坦。要不是中國關鍵時刻擺了個空城計，小巴差點藥丸。。。。。。。。。。。關於空城計，我記得周總理在戰爭關鍵時刻對印度發出最後通牒，要求幾天之內必須撤兵，否則中國將直接介入。然後印度真的停手了。1971年的中國正在文革，估計周總理心裡也沒底。所以我覺得這應該是擺了個空城計。
陸軍是菜雞互啄，士兵甚至基層軍官都不識字。指揮作戰得靠對錶和傳令兵……
海軍印度水面厲害，巴基斯坦水下厲害，印度的潛艇拿了自己一血…
空軍巴基斯坦厲害，小而精悍。就是美國飛機備件不足容易被卡脖子。印度空軍可是每年消滅自己一個中隊的傳奇請看國內野狼獾寫的小說《國家意志》，貼吧和網上有全本
中國從頭到尾全力支持巴基斯坦，巴基斯坦雖然幾乎國土全喪，但也把印度拖到無法撤軍的戰爭泥潭，最後從東西兩側狠下死手，中巴聯軍攻破了新德里，進入印度總理府。
戰鬥場面很還原現實，描寫的身臨其境。YY和金手指成分相比其他網路軍事小說也比較少。很好的軍事小說。局部戰爭：巴國的軍隊素質還是可以的（畢竟那麼多年的軍人干政造成資源大幅向軍方投入），在局部戰場獨立對付印度有獲得局部戰役勝利的希望。參見1999年的卡吉爾衝突，巴軍並未讓印度佔有多少優勢。
全面戰爭：沒有外援，巴基斯坦絕對贏不了。兩國在人口規模，經濟實力，軍事實力上相差太懸殊。最要命的是巴基斯坦國土基本沒有什麼戰略縱深，首都地區距離印控克什米爾才100餘公里。作為經濟重心和人口密集地區的信德省和旁遮普省都是位於印巴交界處。阿三要真是發起瘋來，首善之區和首富之區會在第一時間被印度炸得稀巴爛。而相對狹長的國土，又容易被敵軍攔腰切斷交通線（想像一個沒有卡拉奇的伊斯蘭堡和一個沒有伊斯蘭堡的卡拉奇）
估計會有人說巴基斯坦也有核武器。
雖然巴國的核彈頭數目與印度約莫相仿，但真開啟全面戰爭的潘多拉之盒，巴國就是把庫存的核彈頭都用上，頂多讓印度半個國土陷於廢墟。而印度在信德和旁遮普省各丟上個三五顆，巴基斯坦就完了，剩下的省份立刻就會扯起獨立大旗。
步兵方面兩者伯仲，飛行員方面巴基斯坦素質明顯高，而且經常輸出有實戰和豐富的訓練經驗（比如沙特空軍就大多巴基斯坦僱傭兵），和一年摔N架的隔壁還是不能比的，總體來說國力差距太大，但直接剛正面來說並沒有誰碾壓誰的情況，畢竟還沒有打過總體戰，一打大家都勸和，所以國力差距反而沒有這麼容易體現。
而且巴基斯坦背後是一大金主一大靠山，畢竟是綠綠最強戰力沒有之一，像葉門戰鬥裡面因為缺了巴基斯坦陸軍所以就變成......沙特幫著養人不說，半數軍費都是他出的，靠山來說能賣和不能賣的都賣了。
印度也沒辦法，一個是確實啃不動，就算巴基斯坦沒錢也有不差錢的貼給他，第二個是後台基本是世界幾大集團之二，光前線施壓和石油禁運就能讓印度藥丸了。如果打得過，小巴就不會一有風吹草動，就拿核武器來說事了。
印巴會有衝突，但不會有全面戰爭，這不符合雙方利益。關鍵從地緣政治上說，印度離開中國太近了，卻又被喜馬拉雅山擋住，處於難攻難守的地緣困境，所以歷史上印度總被外族入侵，卻無法反擊。很快印度就有二十億人口了，印度最大的看點是如何用佔世界4%的水資源養活佔世界20%的人口。個人感覺裡面蘊含無限商機，但印度的貿易保護主義讓人頭痛。
很難了，按照今天的局面，除非我們派出志願航空隊和防空部隊，否則巴基斯坦連一毛錢勝算都沒有。
土鱉曾經對來訪的巴方人員說，我們會支持你們直到戰爭結束。
首先答題，毫無疑問打不過。從國力，軍力，軍隊建設等諸多方面，巴基斯坦均與印度差距懸殊。
不過看到樓上那個印度兄弟的樂觀答案，覺得有必要給印度人民科普一下地緣政治和全球統治方面的基本知識。
首先，最近幾年隨著印度國力的大幅提升，以及國內矛盾的不斷升級，將階級矛盾轉為宗教矛盾，將國內矛盾轉為國外矛盾是印度為此開出的藥方。因此印度也在對周邊國家的態度上愈加咄咄逼人。
這個是目前的一個現狀。之前全球秩序默認的，中美支持巴基斯坦謀求區域平衡，俄羅斯支持印度謀求印度洋戰略立足點，全世界支持印度謀求抗衡中國壓力。這是整個印度洋的秩序。
印度在將來的若干年內如果不解體，勢必會開始挑戰此秩序。當然印度的地緣環境比從東北亞到東南亞中國所面臨的，要好的多得多。
不過畢竟印度試圖真正的做南亞環印度洋霸主的話，卧榻之側，豈容他人酣睡，所以挑戰美軍一等人和中國在南亞區域的軍事存在是其戰略目標。而為了遏制這個戰略目標，中美扶植了巴基斯坦，並且默認允許了巴基斯坦擁核。
所以呢，不管印度怎麼想，一個擁核的巴基斯坦始終是它不能挑戰的存在。因為如今的世界秩序，就是核彈的秩序。
怎麼突破，待續。巴基斯坦本來就打不過印度,雪上加霜的是中國也只希望巴基斯坦不被印度打死,誰都打不過誰才是中國的利益所在。
排除國際因素單挑的話絕對印度贏
當然，國際事務哪有這麼簡單……
最後撿便宜的是中國，不費太多力氣拉攏了一個長期盟友。這個盟友還能一直拿來噁心著一個潛在敵人（中印戰爭才打完幾年...）印度沒有實戰的核武器，巴基斯坦有。
Hi, thanks for the question. This is V.Tiwari and I am from India, I"ll be answering your question with three questions and their answers followed by.
First of all, let me tell you that since the partition of India (1947), India and Pakistan have already fought 4 wars, with all wars won by India.
On comparing the strength, both, economically or militarily, India has always been and is stronger than Pakistan in all aspects.
Question#1:
What if another war breaks out between India and Pakistan?This would not be the first time, however it is extremely unlikely as both Countries are Nuclear powers and in the modern world, wars are not fought with Arms anymore. Anyway, if ever there is a military war between the two countries, the following would happen :(1) Pakistan would not be able to fight for a very long time.
Keeping in mind the economic condition of Pakistan, it would not be possible for them to fight against India for very long. Their economy is already strained and there is no way they can fight for very long. They would soon run out of resources and foreign aid would also dry up.(2) Pakistan"s myths would be busted.
Pakistan does not enjoy the same support from USA and China as it once did. No doubt that USA and China donate a LOT to Pakistan - both money and arms. But, both USA and China have been favoring India in the last decade due to the booming economy of India.Their long term interest lies with India which is a huge economy with gigantic buying potential. India is a big market for both USA and China and they would not want their trade to be put in jeopardy. They may not support India, but would neither oppose them. Pakistan would face international isolation as India would play it"s economy card. Also, Indian diplomacy is far better than that of Pakistan.(3) Pakistan "will" use Nuclear weapons.
Pakistan already understands that in the current scenario there is no way they can face India in a conventional battle. India"s economy and military has far surpassed any Pakistani competence. Their only option is to use Nuclear power against India as that would be the only hope - false hope maybe. Pakistan does not have any credible missile that can carry a nuclear warhead deep enough in India to avoid any ill affect on Pakistan itself. Pakistan cannot detonate a Nuclear missile in Punjab or neighboring areas, as there will always be a risk of Pakistani territory being affected by it. They can only risk "dropping" the bomb through an aircraft. It is highly doubtful that any Pakistani aircraft would be able to do that in sophisticated Indian airspace.(4) Russian/Israel support.
Both Russia and Israel will offer support to India. However, any help would not be needed from them. They would only be asked to keep an eye on the movements of China and USA and share their intelligence information.There is only ONE way this war can end - With total destruction of Pakistan and heavy loss to India as well. However, India would survive and rebuild but Pakistan would be removed from the Map of the world.
Question#2:
In the case of war between India and Pakistan, what will China"s actions be?- If the war was started by India:-
Either support Pakistan or act neutral but still covertly support it.
- If the war was started by Pakistan:-
Remain neutral or support India.
Question#3:India is a Hindu country, Pakistan is Muslim, can religion start a war between India and Pakistan?India is the second largest country in terms of Muslim population, only after Pakistan, with an almost equal population. So definitely Muslims are with India, not against. In fact, Indian muslims are so peaceful that there isn"t any conflict between Shia and Sunni muslims in India.