如何看待鳳凰網的新聞：中國高端製造擊敗日本？

01-21

下面是鏈接：中國高端製造擊敗日本高鐵衛星核電暢銷亞洲
聯繫最近幾年日本家電品牌的衰落以及中國品牌的崛起，日本製造業的各個方向是不是正在慢慢被中國超越？

早晨起床就看到這個消息，當時特別興奮，第一時間發到了微博。雖然國家經濟轉型困難重重，但是起碼取得的成績是矚目且值得肯定的。海關出口我不太懂，但是感覺這個數據作假不太容易，亞行發布的這個報告主要用的是經合組織STAN資料庫。（我沒用過這個資料庫，歡迎拍磚）。

這個報告的英文版在此：http://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/177205/asian-economic-integration-report-2015.pdf 如果有人有興趣可以免費下載來看。

報告有講TPP之類，其中大家最關心的就是15頁左右這幾段：

Analyzing regional value chains

Measuring the depth of regional value chains is
critical when analyzing trade integration. The build-up and changing patterns
of regional value chains in Asia can be traced through the movement of economy
market shares and the production weight between low- to high-technology manufactures—the
higher-value exports. In 1996, for low-technology products, the PRC, the
Republic of Korea, and Thailand ranked highest in terms of market share among
the 「+3」 economies, India, and middle income ASEAN (Indonesia, Malaysia, the
Philippines, and Thailand) (Table 3). But by 2014, shares of the Republic of
Korea and Thailand fell back with the PRC, India, and Indonesia taking higher
shares. For high technology products, Japan』s share in 1996 was highest at 30%,
followed by the Republic of Korea and Malaysia. But by 2014, the PRC was
largest with a 43.7% share. For medium-high and medium-low technology products,
the +3 economies held the largest market shares throughout the two periods. The
Republic of Korea and the PRC, in particular, have been increasing their shares
over time.

中低技術產業包括船舶和漁船;橡膠和塑料製品;石油產品;其他非金屬礦物製品;和基本金屬。低技術行業包括回收;木材，紙漿和紙製品; 食品與飲品;和紡織產品。

By export
composition, Japan』s highest weight was on medium-high technology products
throughout the two periods (Table 4). In 1990, the PRC』s
highest weight was on low-technology products, at 54.3%. By 2014, however, it
had moved up the value chain with high-technology products accounting for the
highest portion of its exports at 30.6%—followed by medium-high technology
products at 24.4%. For India, compared with 1990—when it focused mainly on
low-technology exports—the economy gradually switched focus to higher technology
products. This is also true for Thailand. The large decline in the PRC and the
Republic of Korea』s low-technology exports』 weight over time was partly
replaced by India and Indonesia』s sustained production weight.
如下圖中韓產業升級，低技術出口產品被印尼和印度代替。
International
production sharing has important implications for global value chains as well
as Asian economic integration. Cross-border production networks—trade in parts
and components and final assembly—have strengthened regional
interdependence, as seen from increasing intraregional trade shares. With each
stage of production now occurring in different economies, intermediate inputs
cross borders multiple times, making it difficult to trace any particular
economy』s value-added to the regional supply chain—if relying on gross trade statistics.
The discrepancy between value-added and gross trade (which 「double-counts」
this back-and-forth intermediate trade) has long beenidentified.13
Accounting for this crisscrossing is particularly important for 「Factory
Asia」, and could shed light on the structure of Asia』s vertical specialization
and integration.

Using the gross
exports accounting framework by Wang, Wei, and Zhu (2014), integration in
value-added trade was examined by decomposing the gross intraregional exports of
12 Asian economies into its various components.14 Generally, an economy』s
exports (to any partner) can be decomposed into four major categories: domestic
value-added absorbed abroad (DVA); value-added first exported but eventually
returned home (RDV); foreign-value added (FVA); and purely double-counted terms
(PDC).15 While the relatively small number of economies—which comprise the
「region」 for this exercise—may allow for limited analysis, the economies
included are arguably the major drivers of regional trade (in 2014, they
accounted for 77% of Asia』s intraregional exports).

The different
components and their combinations allow us to gauge (i) whether there is
significant difference from intraregional measures of gross exports and exports
ultimately absorbed abroad, (ii) whether linkages among the 12 has also
increased in terms of domestic-value added, (iii) the structure of the region』s
value-added trade, and (iv) economies and economy-pairs driving this trend.
Three years were examined—2000, 2005, and 2011—for which data from Intercountry
Input-Output (IO) tables are available. The available data covers 45 economies
and the rest of the world (ROW) as an additional group—40 economies and the ROW
were sourced from the World Input-Output Database, while an additional five
Asian economies were constructed by ADB. 16

Between 2000 and
2011, Asia』s intraregional gross exports have increased about 3.6 times. And
while the DVA accounts for the largest share in Asia』s trade (some 70%), the
increase between the two periods is mostly accounted for by an increase in PDC
(4.4 times), followed by FVA (3.9 times), RDV (3.8 times) and finally DVA (3.4
times). Given the increasing role in Asian trade growth of the PDC
component—which occurs from increasing production sharing across borders—this
shows Asia』s growing linkages in the regional production network.

Consistent with
other findings of increasing intraregional shares using gross trade statistics,
exports of DVA ultimately absorbed within the region—as a percent of all
exported DVA—has likewise increased (Figure 20). This increasing trend is not
only in DVA, but in FVA and PDC as well. However, Asian economies』 exports of
domestic value that returns back via imports have been declining, consistent
with the fact that most of DVA is now absorbed abroad.

ps:有些人非要和德國比製造業，沒看到說的是亞洲嗎？.....這次鳳凰中的評論少見的比較正面陽光，微博上一大堆酸的，看慣了，我都懶得搭理了。

核電：核電出口長期被俄法把持，07年美國西屋電氣轉讓中國核電技術，完全吃透並優化,形成自主的CAP1400和華龍一號兩種第三代核電站出口類型，現在正在布局研究第四代核電站技術，逐漸走向核電出口大國。

2015年中國拿下阿根廷，巴基斯坦的單子，10月份中國又敲定英國，博士現在正緊鑼密鼓向南非、肯亞、蘇丹、巴西等國推廣，每單動輒幾十億美元，我就問你怕不怕？日本核電技術是不錯，福島核電站出事故之後給你用，我就問你敢不敢？這就是國運。

（我本身是研究能源的，最近和同事翻譯整理了IEA《核能技術路線圖》，有北京的同行可私信我，掃描二維碼，即可獲得資料）

高鐵：這個我懶得說了，中國北到哈爾濱，南到海南島，西到烏魯木齊，東到大海，什麼複雜地貌我們沒見過？

之前的帖子說的很詳細了。中國高鐵技術真的是世界領先的嗎？ - 鐵路

航天衛星類：1.中國出口的這些衛星現狀如何

2.日本最新的氣象衛星「向日葵8號」性能和技術怎麼樣？和中國衛星相比較如何？

3. http://news.mydrivers.com/1/460/460377.htm

這個部分，我不太關注。

有時間更新。

謝邀，並沒有。

現在可以說中國在某個領域或者說是某些領域領先日本或者其他國家，但說是各個方面，未免有點樂觀了。

儘管考研教材告訴我們，社會主義現代化建設取得舉世矚目的成就。

革命尚未成功，同志仍需努力。

@昭葉這些統計應該是包含了在中國的外企的出口吧，也就是說只要是從中國出口的產品就全部算成了中國的份額。可是實際上高端製造業還是由外資把控啊，只不過生產場地在中國而已。不知道你有沒有這方面的數據？

我只知道民間製造業高端製造設備機器都是進口歐美其次日本

這些「高端產品」的核心有多少是中國製造的？製造工具有多少是中國自己造的？

答案不言自明了吧。