如何看待6月28日Trump貿易政策演講？

01-15

#美國大選#共和黨候選人特朗普6月28日發表國際貿易政策演講，其中提到中國12次。他說他將撕毀TPP，北美自貿協定等國際貿易協議，並將對中國的經濟行為採取無情的攻勢（start an unrelenting offensive against Chinese economic practices），並將重新談判所有貿易協議。他說：「我們的政客太過於追求全球化，將我們的工作機會、財富和工廠都轉移到了墨西哥和海外。全球化讓支持政客的金融精英變得非常富有，我不得不承認，我曾經也是他們的一員。」
微博正文

之前一直說川普的政策假大空，怎麼這麼幾個演講看下來，川普的政策好像是最具體的？

全文

It is great to be here. I"d like to thank Alumisource and all the amazing workers here for hosting us.

Today, I am going to talk about how to Make America Wealthy Again.

We are thirty miles from Steel City. Pittsburgh played a central role in building our nation.

The legacy of Pennsylvania steelworkers lives in the bridges, railways and skyscrapers that make up our great American landscape.

But our workers" loyalty was repaid with betrayal.

Our politicians have aggressively pursued a policy of globalization - moving our jobs, our wealth and our factories to Mexico and overseas.

Globalization has made the financial elite who donate to politicians very wealthy. But it has left millions of our workers with nothing but poverty and heartache.

When subsidized foreign steel is dumped into our markets, threatening our factories, the politicians do nothing.

For years, they watched on the sidelines as our jobs vanished and our communities were plunged into depression-level unemployment.

Many of these areas have still never recovered.

Our politicians took away from the people their means of making a living and supporting their families.

Skilled craftsmen and tradespeople and factory workers have seen the jobs they loved shipped thousands of miles away.

Many Pennsylvania towns once thriving and humming are now in a state despair.

This wave of globalization has wiped out our middle class.

It doesn"t have to be this way. We can turn it all around - and we can turn it around fast.

But if we"re going to deliver real change, we"re going to have to reject the campaign of fear and intimidation being pushed by powerful corporations, media elites, and political dynasties.

The people who rigged the system for their benefit will do anything - and say anything - to keep things exactly as they are.

The people who rigged the system are supporting Hillary Clinton because they know as long as she is in charge nothing will ever change.

The inner cities will remain poor.

The factories will remain closed.

The borders will remain open.

The special interests will remain firmly in control.

Hillary Clinton and her friends in global finance want to scare America into thinking small - and they want to scare the American people out of voting for a better future.

My campaign has the opposite message.

I want you to imagine how much better your life can be if we start believing in America again.

I want you to imagine how much better our future can be if we declare independence from the elites who"ve led us to one financial and foreign policy disaster after another.

Our friends in Britain recently voted to take back control of their economy, politics and borders.

I was on the right side of that issue - with the people - while Hillary, as always, stood with the elites, and both she and president Obama predicted that one wrong.

Now it"s time for the American people to take back their future.

That"s the choice we face. We can either give in to Hillary Clinton"s campaign of fear, or we can choose to Believe In America.

We lost our way when we stopped believing in our country.

America became the world"s dominant economy by becoming the world"s dominant producer.

The wealth this created was shared broadly, creating the biggest middle class the world had ever known.

But then America changed its policy from promoting development in America, to promoting development in other nations.

We allowed foreign countries to subsidize their goods, devalue their currencies, violate their agreements, and cheat in every way imaginable.

Trillions of our dollars and millions of our jobs flowed overseas as a result.

I have visited cities and towns across this country where a third or even half of manufacturing jobs have been wiped out in the last 20 years.

Today, we import nearly $800 billion more in goods than we export.

This is not some natural disaster. It is politician-made disaster.

It is the consequence of a leadership class that worships globalism over Americanism.

This is a direct affront to our Founding Fathers, who wanted America to be strong, independent and free.

Our Founding Fathers Understood Trade

George Washington said that "the promotion of domestic manufactur[ing] will be among the first consequences to flow from an energetic government.」

Alexander Hamilton spoke frequently of the "expediency of encouraging manufactur[ing] in the United States." The first Republican President, Abraham Lincoln, warned that: "The abandonment of the protective policy by the American government… must produce want and ruin among our people."

Our original Constitution did not even have an income tax. Instead, it had tariffs - emphasizing taxation of foreign, not domestic, production.

Yet today, 240 years after the Revolution, we have turned things completely upside-down.

We tax and regulate and restrict our companies to death, then we allow foreign countries that cheat to export their goods to us tax-free.

As a result, we have become more dependent on foreign countries than ever before.

Ladies and Gentlemen, it』s time to declare our economic independence once again.

That means reversing two of the worst legacies of the Clinton years.

America has lost nearly one-third of its manufacturing jobs since 1997 - even as the country has increased its population by 50 million people.

At the center of this catastrophe are two trade deals pushed by Bill and Hillary Clinton.

First, the North American Free Trade Agreement, or NAFTA. Second, China"s entry into the World Trade Organization.

NAFTA was the worst trade deal in history, and China"s entrance into the World Trade Organization has enabled the greatest jobs theft in history.

It was Bill Clinton who signed NAFTA in 1993, and Hillary Clinton who supported it.

It was also Bill Clinton who lobbied for China"s disastrous entry into the World Trade Organization, and Hillary Clinton who backed that terrible agreement.

Then, as Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton stood by idly while China cheated on its currency, added another trillion dollars to our trade deficits, and stole hundreds of billions of dollars in our intellectual property.

The city of Pittsburgh, and the State of Pennsylvania, have lost one-third of their manufacturing jobs since the Clintons put China into the WTO.

Fifty thousand factories across America have shut their doors in that time.

Almost half of our entire manufacturing trade deficit in goods with the world is the result of trade with China.

It was also Hillary Clinton, as Secretary of State, who shoved us into a job-killing deal with South Korea in 2012.

As reported by the Economic Policy Institute in May, this deal doubled our trade deficit with South Korea and destroyed nearly 100,000 American jobs.

As Bernie Sanders said, Hillary Clinton "Voted for virtually every trade agreement that has cost the workers of this country millions of jobs.」

Trade reform, and the negotiation of great trade deals, is the quickest way to bring our jobs back.

To understand why trade reform creates jobs, we need to understand how all nations grow and prosper.

Massive trade deficits subtract directly from our Gross Domestic Product.

From 1947 to 2001 - a span of over five decades - our inflation-adjusted gross domestic product grew at a rate of 3.5%.

However, since 2002 - the year after we fully opened our markets to Chinese imports - that GDP growth rate has been cut almost in half.

What does this mean for Americans? For every one percent of GDP growth we fail to generate in any given year, we also fail to create over one million jobs.

America"s "job creation deficit" due to slower growth since 2002 is well over 20 million jobs - and that"s just about the number of jobs our country needs right now to put America back to work at decent wages.

The Transpacific-Partnership is the greatest danger yet.

The TPP would be the death blow for American manufacturing.

It would give up all of our economic leverage to an international commission that would put the interests of foreign countries above our own.

It would further open our markets to aggressive currency cheaters. It would make it easier for our trading competitors to ship cheap subsidized goods into U.S. markets - while allowing foreign countries to continue putting barriers in front of our exports.

The TPP would lower tariffs on foreign cars, while leaving in place the foreign practices that keep American cars from being sold overseas. The TPP even created a backdoor for China to supply car parts for automobiles made in Mexico.

The agreement would also force American workers to compete directly against workers from Vietnam, one of the lowest wage countries on Earth.

Not only will the TPP undermine our economy, but it will undermine our independence.

The TPP creates a new international commission that makes decisions the American people can"t veto.

These commissions are great Hillary Clinton』s Wall Street funders who can spend vast amounts of money to influence the outcomes.

It should be no surprise then that Hillary Clinton, according to Bloomberg, took a 「leading part in drafting the Trans-Pacific Partnership」.

She praised or pushed the TPP on 45 separate occasions, and even called it the 「gold standard」.

Hillary Clinton was totally for the TPP just a short while ago, but when she saw my stance, which is totally against, she was shamed into saying she would be against it too – but have no doubt, she will immediately approve it if it is put before her, guaranteed.

She will do this just as she has betrayed American workers for Wall Street throughout her career.

Here』s how it would go: she would make a small token change, declare the pact fixed, and ram it through.

That』s why Hillary is now only saying she has problems with the TPP 「in its current form,」 – ensuring that she can rush to embrace it again at her earliest opportunity.

If the media doesn』t believe me, I have a challenge for you. Ask Hillary Clinton if she is willing to withdraw from the TPP her first day in office and unconditionally rule out its passage in any form.

There is no way to 「fix」 the TPP. We need bilateral trade deals. We do not need to enter into another massive international agreement that ties us up and binds us down.

A Trump Administration will change our failed trade policy - quickly

Here are 7 steps I would pursue right away to bring back our jobs.

One: I am going to withdraw the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which has not yet been ratified.

Two: I"m going to appoint the toughest and smartest trade negotiators to fight on behalf of American workers.

Three: I"m going to direct the Secretary of Commerce to identify every violation of trade agreements a foreign country is currently using to harm our workers. I will then direct all appropriate agencies to use every tool under American and international law to end these abuses.

Four: I"m going tell our NAFTA partners that I intend to immediately renegotiate the terms of that agreement to get a better deal for our workers. And I don"t mean just a little bit better, I mean a lot better. If they do not agree to a renegotiation, then I will submit notice under Article 2205 of the NAFTA agreement that America intends to withdraw from the deal.

Five: I am going to instruct my Treasury Secretary to label China a currency manipulator. Any country that devalues their currency in order to take advantage of the United States will be met with sharply

Six: I am going to instruct the U.S. Trade Representative to bring trade cases against China, both in this country and at the WTO. China"s unfair subsidy behavior is prohibited by the terms of its entrance to the WTO, and I intend to enforce those rules.

Seven: If China does not stop its illegal activities, including its theft of American trade secrets, I will use every lawful presidential power to remedy trade disputes, including the application of tariffs consistent with Section 201 and 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 and Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962.

President Reagan deployed similar trade measures when motorcycle and semiconductor imports threatened U.S. industry. His tariff on Japanese motorcycles was 45% and his tariff to shield America』s semiconductor industry was 100%.

Hillary Clinton, and her campaign of fear, will try to spread the lie that these actions will start a trade war. She has it completely backwards.

Hillary Clinton unleashed a trade war against the American worker when she supported one terrible trade deal after another – from NAFTA to China to South Korea.

A Trump Administration will end that war by getting a fair deal for the American people.

The era of economic surrender will finally be over.

A new era of prosperity will finally begin.

America will be independent once more.

Under a Trump Presidency, the American worker will finally have a President who will protect them and fight for them.

We will stand up to trade cheating anywhere and everywhere it threatens an American job.

We will make America the best place in the world to start a business, hire workers, and open a factory.

This includes massive tax reform to lift the crushing burdens on American workers and businesses.

We will also get rid of wasteful rules and regulations which are destroying our job creation capacity.

Many people think that these regulations are an even greater impediment than the fact that we are one of the highest taxed nations in the world.

We are also going to fully capture America』s tremendous energy capacity. This will create vast profits for our workers and begin reducing our deficit. Hillary Clinton wants to shut down energy production and shut down the mines.

A Trump Administration will also ensure that we start using American steel for American infrastructure.

Just like the American steel from Pennsylvania that built the Empire State building.

It will be American steel that will fortify American"s crumbling bridges.

It will be American steel that sends our skyscrapers soaring into the sky.

It will be American steel that rebuilds our inner cities.

It will be American hands that remake this country, and it will be American energy - mined from American resources - that powers this country.

It will be American workers who are hired to do the job.

We are going to put American-produced steel back into the backbone of our country. This alone will create massive numbers of jobs.

On trade, on immigration, on foreign policy, we are going to put America First again.

We are going to make America wealthy again.

We are going to reject Hillary Clinton"s politics of fear, futility, and incompetence.

We are going to embrace the possibilities of change.

It is time to believe in the future.

It is time to believe in each other.

It is time to Believe In America.

This Is How We Are Going To Make America Great Again – For All Americans.

We Are Going To Make America Great Again。Again For Everyone – Greater Than Ever Before.

Thank you.

川普簡直解救了美國留學生啊，人民幣要漲

反經濟全球化、TPP、NAFTA，保護本國製造業，和在國際貿易中「cheat」以中國為代表的國家正面打貿易戰

想法是好的，對中國來說，正好從「低端製造大國」的形象里脫身，強迫國內企業重視創新專利。更何況近年來低端製造業中心像東南亞轉移，一直這樣下去也不是辦法，急需經濟轉型

問題在於，他提出的貿易政策，怕是要和美國上層社會裡那些經濟全球化的既得利益者們產生更大的衝突

經濟自有其趨勢和規律。總統候選人上台前的經濟政策都是忽悠，沒幾個做得到的。所以，隨他說。重點還是外交國家安全教育減稅

謝邀。

H兄，你的邀請我沒看見……還是刪邀的時候才發現的。呵呵。

川普的話是他必須說的，所以不用太當真。

川普沒能力逆轉全球化，即使他是成功的商人和偉大的總統，也無法逆轉全球化。任何反全球化的結果就是戰爭——無論是低烈度還是二戰式的中等烈度，從全球化中得益的發達國家是不可能放棄全球化進程的，而小國弱國就只有被乖乖折騰的份兒。

說到底，全球化是五大流氓的盛宴，其他國家不是陪襯就是基石，富如德國日本，也不過是混得稍好的配角。最後能夠決定走向的，是同時擁有強大常規軍力與核武的五大流氓——川普想改變全球化嗎？那他就會成為下一個被刺殺的總統。

不過以川普的智力和做事風格來說，這種話也就是說說而已，他沒那麼傻。選票面前，說什麼都行啊。

很顯然，這是一個找罵的演講，而且效果還可以。中國政府非常配合罵了幾句，美國媒體也罵，專家說，你這亂搞，會失去三百多萬就業崗位。而這樣的反應恰恰是特朗普需要的。

主流媒體倡導的全球化造成美國本土產業的空心化，這是許多人親身體驗的。特朗普現在反全球化，你們說這也會造成失業。合著無論全球化反全球化中下層美國民眾都該失業嗎，你們這些磚家都是開拖拉機的嗎?

特朗普的財富使他可以說，我知道全球化的好處，我也曾經是受益者。那麼他對全球化的批判也就有了堅實的基礎。

總之，特朗普的選民定位是沉默的大多數，反對現狀而渴求改變的人。而這恰恰需要強大的心臟。

英國脫歐對特朗普而言不一定是好事，脫歐後一片哀鴻對特朗普而言更不是好事，但是土耳其機場爆炸來的非常及時，不早也不晚。使脫歐的陣痛，支持留歐的聲音一掃而空。這才是天助特朗普。

但是經濟上反主流很難得到助攻，除非美國經濟又大幅下滑，而這不太容易實現。特朗普的路依舊坎坷。

至於特朗普政策的可行性，我只好呵呵。

特朗普要激發起美國人的愛國心，切斷所有貿易，讓產業工人回去重新開工，

在巨大的愛國熱情下，

底特律再一次繁榮，美國車就算比日本車貴2倍，耗油多2倍，趴窩率高2倍，美國人也堅決開美國車，不開不是美國人，

美國組裝的IPhone就算價格翻翻，美國人也堅持使用，什麼用三星華為的都是賣國賊用的，

柯達相機重振旗鼓，推出膠捲寄柯達直接存雲伺服器服務，媽媽再也不用擔心相機儲存卡不夠用了，

以上皆為調侃。

其實美國人真有棒子的愛國熱情，靠美國這麼大的市場內循環撐個幾年也沒太大問題。

把工作帶回美國其實不難，難的是帶回美國的工作能經得起工會的折騰。。。

美國人犯傻了30多年，也該學聰明一回了。

這跟奧巴馬批評中國搭全球經濟的便車是一樣的，只是特朗普說的更具體些，不同的是美國是高端製造業，金融上更是全球金融規則的制定者和最大獲利者。美國的高端製造業本身需要的工人就不多，高屋建瓴，特朗普針對的對象是美國的產業工人，目的是獲得選票，美國的產業轉移確實合適，通過高端製造業出口給中國，中國只是生產加工的一方。中國需要提高製造業的升級轉型，來應付全球化和後全球化時代的挑戰。

中國都在痛苦去產能，降低煤鐵產量，處理附帶失業問題的時候，Trump居然在呼籲美國大力發展鋼鐵產業，在低油價的大背景下讓嬌貴的美國人去挖煤，在富士康搬到印度的時候讓美國人組裝iphone，為了爭取白屌絲的選票，違背資本主義經濟規律算什麼。

必須承認，做媒體的Trump是懂人性的：白屌絲們支持Trump而不喜歡領民主黨的福利，是心理上不願意承認自己失敗，而把失敗歸到外國人，豎起一個靶子就可以說「不是我們太無能，而是敵人太狡猾」。

希拉里豎不起靶子所以沒人氣，桑德斯也能樹個華爾街的靶子呢，Trump樹的靶子更多（華爾街+矽谷）所以更熱鬧。