如何看待最近日本病毒學家河岡義裕研製的超級病毒？

12-25

昨晚看的中央電視台的新聞才知道。
「香港《文匯報》3日報道，日本東京大學兼美國威斯康星州麥迪遜大學教授河岡義裕，為了分析H1N1的基因變化，將流感病毒改造成能夠繞過人類免疫系統。報道稱，一旦這種奪命病毒外泄，人類將毫無抵抗力，恐釀成大災難。」
人類會因此滅絕嗎？研究者又是什麼心態？
日學者造超級病毒人類對其毫無抵抗力

Exclusive: Controversial US scientist creates deadly new flu strain for pandemic research
先post一下文章最初來源，來自英國獨立報網站。別的地方的文章都摘自這篇，並加以修飾。國內媒體來源未知，但從內容看全部指向這篇原文。

手機碼字不容易。

原文不無噱頭，但是用詞和文章結構巧妙。主要論點和國內報道一樣是「這台tmd可怕鳥！」吸引公眾眼球，同時也有反面聲音和論據指出這非常安全，引發大家思考。

先看到底是啥事：

Yoshihiro Kawaoka of the University of Wisconsin-Madison has genetically manipulated the 2009 strain of pandemic flu in order for it to 「escape」 the control of the immune system』s neutralising antibodies, effectively making the human population defenceless against its reemergence.

Most of the world today has developed some level of immunity to the 2009 pandemic flu virus, which means that it can now be treated as less dangerous 「seasonal flu」. However, The Independent understands that Professor Kawaoka intentionally set out to see if it was possible to convert it to a pre-pandemic state in order to analyse the genetic changes involved.

碼字太累，不翻譯了。文章提到The Independent understands that ，而非客觀事實。而且該研究尚未發表有諸多未知，所以各類新聞報道水分很大。

只看看採訪事實部分，評價不看，便於大家斟酌：

「Through selection of immune escape viruses in the laboratory under appropriate containment conditions, we were able to identify the key regions [that] would enable 2009 H1N1 viruses to escape immunity,」 Professor Kawaoka said in an email.

「Viruses in clinical isolates have been identified that have these same changes in the [viral protein]. This shows that escape viruses emerge in nature and laboratory studies like ours have relevance to what occurs in nature,」 he said.

首先病毒是合理保存的，第二他們是為了研究病毒逃避免疫的機制，動機無害。

繼續：

「He took the 2009 pandemic flu virus and selected out strains that were not neutralised by human antibodies. He repeated this several times until he got a real humdinger of a virus,」 said one scientist who was present at Professor Kawaoka』s talk.

「He left no doubt in my mind that he had achieved it. He used a flu virus that is known to infect humans and then manipulated it in such a way that it would effectively leave the global population defenceless if it ever escaped from his laboratory,」 he said.

「He』s basically got a known pandemic strain that is now resistant to vaccination. Everything he did before was dangerous but this is even madder. This is the virus,」 he added.

一個知情人士的看法，認為疫苗無效擴散會全球爆發。

「With that being said, this work is not to create a new strain of influenza with pandemic potential, but [to] model the immune-pressure the virus is currently facing in our bodies to escape our defences,」 Ms Moritz said.

「The work is designed to identify potential circulating strains to guide the process of selecting strains used for the next vaccine…The committee found the biosafety containment procedures to be appropriate for conducting this research. I have no concerns about the biosafety of these experiments,」 she said.

Professor Kawaoka said that he has presented preliminary findings of his H1N1 study to the WHO, which were 「well received」.

「We are confident our study will contribute to the field, particularly given the number of mutant viruses we generated and the sophisticated analysis applied,」 he said.

「There are risks in all research. However, there are ways to mitigate the risks. As for all the research on influenza viruses in my laboratory, this work is performed by experienced researchers under appropriate containment and with full review and prior approval by the [biosafety committee],」 he added.

隔離措施保險，多方面保障。

總結一下，媒體噱頭水分多，而且多層轉載畫貓成虎吸引眼球，害的大眾杯弓蛇影。這種現象全球都嚴重，特別在國內媒體極其嚴重。UW是個牛逼的學校，我相信他們學校的實力，以及這位日本大叔$1200w的設施。如文章所說，危險會有，但是完全控制的了。公眾無需為此捏汗，就當新鮮事看看就好了。