怎樣理解王爾德的【談論天氣是無趣人類最後的避難所】這句話?

背景是看專業書籍對一致性的定義,引用了這句話:Another definition of consistency is "the last refuge of the unimaginative" (Oscar Wilde).對於原話Conversation about the weather is the last refuge of the unimaginative(談論天氣是無趣人類最後的避難所)也不太理解。希望賜教。


Conversation about the weather is the last refuge of the unimaginative
我是這樣理解的,不知道對不對:比如咱倆見面了,沒什麼共同話題,只能說:哎今天天氣不好啊,霧霾。所以我翻譯成:談天氣是沒有一致性的最後一個避難所。


很懷疑是不是你那本書的作者想賣個萌...
對於估計來說,「一致性」的意思粗略地講就是樣本數足夠大的時候,估計結果與真實值的絕對誤差可以以概率1保證任意地小。

unimaginative除了「無趣的」以外,也可以字面解作「缺乏想像力」的。當你根本想像不到真實的時候,多測量幾次就能保證更接近真實(雖然要保證足夠的接近程度,必要的測量次數也許是天文數字),這種性質說是估計者最後的避難所好像也沒什麼不對。

而且Wilde不止是說了那句和天氣相關的話,也的確說過「Consistency is the last refuge of the unimaginative.」這話的意思某種意義上就是字面的,「保持一致是無趣者的最終避難處」。

至於關於天氣的那句話和這句大概異曲同工,而且有專門黑英國人的意思。英國人的talking code之一就是要從天氣開始;了解對話天氣的意義,有一個可能不恰當的推薦,見Kate Fox, Watching the English: The Hidden Rules of English Behavior,中譯本《英國人的言行潛規則》的第一章。

Wilde不止一次「吐槽」過天氣:
Pray don"t talk to me about the weather, Mr. Worthing. Whenever people talk to me about the weather, I always feel quite certain that they mean something else. And that makes me quite nervous.
——The Importance of Being Earnest, Act 1, Part 4.

Lord Henry laughed. 『I don"t desire to change anything in England except the weather,』 he answered. 『I am quite content with philosophic contemplation. But, as the nineteenth century has gone bankrupt through an over-expenditure of sympathy, I would suggest that we should appeal to Science to put us straight. The advantage of the emotions is that they lead us astray, and the advantage of Science is that it is not emotional.』
...Lord Henry looked over at Mr. Erskine. 『Humanity takes itself too seriously. It is the world"s original sin. If the caveman had known how to laugh, History would have been different.』
——The Picture of Dorian Gray, Chapter 3
(還是看原文吧,單純摘出這段大概難以理解...)

不知為何還想到這句:
In examinations, the foolish ask questions that the wise cannot answer.


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TAG:一致性 | 王爾德 | 參數估計 | 概率論與數理統計 |