為什麼美國突然與古巴恢復邦交？

12-11

如題，在53年斷交之後為什麼美國又將和古巴恢復邦交了呢？

題主想問的是美國和古巴關係為何會正常化，想把這個問題解釋清楚，咱們最好先看看他倆為什麼會「非正常化」吧。

從大航海時代開始到20世紀初之前漫長的幾個世紀間，古巴一直是作為西班牙的殖民地存在的。19世紀初拿破崙戰爭和西屬拉美革命後，古巴成為西班牙這箇舊殖民帝國在拉丁美洲為數不多的據點之一。

對於以清教徒精神立國、呼喊「昭昭天命」的美國而言，古巴作為日漸式微的西班牙帝國在美洲最後的據點，是美國貫徹門羅主義（阻止歐洲勢力染指美洲的外交理念，早期是為了阻止殖民主義，後期逐漸演變成對拉美的干預）的重大阻礙。1850年代左右，將西班牙人逐出古巴便成為美國政界的思潮之一。著名軍事理論家，《海權論》的作者馬漢也曾指出掌控古巴對美國海權擴張的重大意義。

（我知道你們的目光會被聖地亞哥吸引過去……如果金坷垃原產地真的在這裡，那不光美國要搶，全世界都得擠破頭去搶啊有木有！）

大家看看古巴的方位就能明白，從地緣政治的角度考慮，對於美國，古巴這樣一個地處美國後院的國家，使它親美，是必須執行的外交政策。

而對於已經為了獨立與西班牙人鬥爭了幾十年的古巴人而言，美國這個第一個成功從殖民主義中取得獨立的國家也是值得聯合的對象。一些古巴革命者，如古巴革命黨領導人，後來的古巴第一屆總統帕爾馬就曾向華盛頓求助。

1898年，美國人終於等來了機會。這一年古巴反抗西班牙的起義如火如荼，而這一年，美國派往古巴護僑的軍艦緬因號莫名其妙炸了……炸了……

緬因號爆炸的原因已經不可考，有考證說是艙體的煤炭自燃引爆了炸藥，甚至也有陰謀論猜疑這事就是美國人為了尋找一個開戰的借口自己乾的（好像聽起來有點耳熟？什麼你說911？）……

總之，美國海軍聲稱是西班牙人的水雷引爆了緬因號，美國人出離憤怒，並發動了美西戰爭。行將就木的西班牙帝國徹底崩潰了，它至此從列強的名單消失，多處殖民地被美國接管。而古巴獲得了獨立——但這並不是真正意義上的獨立：因為美國多少在古巴獨立中起到了決定性因素，獨立後的古巴便成為了美國的保護國：經過美國的授意，古巴建國的憲法中加入了一條《普拉特修正案》，美國租借關塔那摩軍事基地，並對古巴進行「合法的干涉」。

（於是結果就變成了這樣……）

（本配圖與文章內容無關……大概吧↑）

拉美國家的民主化大多並不很成功，考迪羅（軍事獨裁者）更迭頻繁。古巴也步其後塵。而美國則通過對古巴軍事獨裁者的支持繼續控制古巴。這一時期大量美國資本湧入古巴，甚至控制了古巴經濟。富爾亨西奧·巴蒂斯塔是這一時期最重要的古巴獨裁者之一。在他執政時期，美國和古巴維持長期的蜜月關係。他曾在40年代對古巴進行了一系列自由化和社會保障改革。但1952年巴蒂斯塔再次通過政變上台後卻廢除了過去一系列的自由化措施，轉而進行嚴厲的獨裁統治。

也正是在這一期間（1950年代），菲德爾·卡斯特羅通過古巴革命推翻了巴蒂斯塔的統治取得了古巴的權力。

其實在古巴革命早期，美古關係還算有個良好的開端，但是兩年之內，兩國的矛盾逐漸激化。

如果只是政權的更迭便算了，但卡斯特羅政權不親美。

如果只是不親美便算了，但卡斯特羅政權還是一個GC主義政權。

如果只是共產主義便算了，但卡斯特羅政權對古巴執行了一系列的國有化政策——而根據前面提及過的，美國資本在古巴經濟中佔據重要地位——因此很多美國人的資產被沒收。

如果只是國有化政策也便算了，但卡斯特羅政權還親蘇……

不要忘了那時是處在冷戰時期！！！

（卡斯特羅：小樣兒，玩的就是你）

在焦灼的對峙時刻突然後院失火，美國人的內心幾乎是崩潰的。古巴演這出，不僅僅是對門羅主義的破壞，更成為蘇聯打入美洲的楔子。在美國的歷史上還從未受到過這樣的威脅：太平洋和大西洋是它天然的屏障，拉美並無與美國抗衡的實力，加拿大獨立後基本算人畜無害（雖然在1815年大明湖畔腹黑的加拿大人火燒了白宮）。但是如果古巴和蘇聯親近，美國的本土安全便受到了很大威脅。（比如古巴導彈危機，世界幾乎與一場核戰爭擦肩而過）。

為此1960年代美國開始對古巴實行了經濟封鎖，這些封鎖一直延續至今。美國也策划了秘密侵入古巴的豬灣事件試圖廢掉卡斯特羅政權，但遭失敗，肯尼迪政府也為此形象大損。也正是在豬灣事件之後，美國斷絕了和古巴的外交關係。而古巴導彈危機後，美國承諾永不入侵古巴的同時，加強了對古巴的經濟封鎖。總之可以算是老死不相往來。

根據前面的粗體字，我們大體總結出了美國和古巴交惡的關係：

·古巴和蘇聯關係的親密，此舉觸及美國紅線

·美國既定外交政策門羅主義對拉美施加影響的需要和古巴不合作的衝突

·古巴產業國有化政策對美國公民在古巴財產的剝奪

·領土糾紛（關塔那摩軍事基地）

·資本主義民主制和共產主義專政的意識形態衝突

·以及由以上原因產生的的民族主義和仇恨

—————— 我就是華麗麗的分割線
——————

咳咳，下面進入正題

根據上述交惡的原因，就不難分析美國和古巴關係正常化的原因了。

先說美國方面~首先是因為對美國方面而言，因為美古交惡很大程度上是冷戰時代的產物之一，所以兩極格局結束後，美古關係正常化就變成了大勢所趨。蘇東劇變導致GC主義勢力遭受很大打擊：蘇聯的解體使美國失去了最大的威脅，中國明哲保身鮮有擴張，朝鮮越南等國對美洲掀不起什麼風浪。在過去，古巴可能會成為面向美國的導彈發射場，但現在，這種可能已經不復存在了。

其次是因為美國近些年來對拉美影響力的下降。因為門羅主義，拉美的小弟們對美國的干預或多或少有些反感。2011年南美和加勒比海地區的三十多個國家組建了「拉美和加勒比國家共同體」。這一標誌著「玻利瓦爾戰勝了門羅」的共同體是拉美地區第一個將美國排斥在外的國際組織——正如當年的歐共體一樣，拉美亦希望通過抱團取暖來應對美國的干預。另外某大國近年來與拉美走得頗近，多少有些挖美國牆腳的味道。為此美國需要調整對拉美的政策：2013年國務卿克里便宣布門羅主義已告終結。而推動美國和古巴關係的正常化，將對美國和拉美關係的拉近有所助益。

三是奧巴馬政府試圖在任內留下外交遺產。相對於一貫採取強硬立場的共和黨而言，民主黨的外交政策往往趨向溫和。早在奧巴馬參選之初便承諾將試圖推動美古關係正常化。2015年奧巴馬政府已經進入尾聲，但近年來ISIS的舉動使美國在中東再度受挫。此時成功推動美古這幾十年的宿敵和解將成為奧巴馬任內最重要的外交遺產。

四是國際輿論的影響。聯合國已經連續二十多年譴責美國對古巴的封鎖政策了。

再說古巴方面——

首先是出於經濟發展的需要。在冷戰時期古巴因為蘇聯的援助以及與經互會國家的貿易而較為富裕，但它的經濟在蘇聯解體後跌落谷底。在之後，委內瑞拉成為古巴最大的金主和貿易夥伴。近幾年隨著國際油價暴跌，以石油為支柱產業的委內瑞拉經濟遭到嚴重打擊，而古巴也失去了最大的靠山。因此古巴迫切需要與美國關係解凍以放鬆經濟制裁。

二是勞爾·卡斯特羅改革的結果。菲德爾當政時期，勞爾就開展過幾次小規模的市場化改革。勞爾當政以來已經逐步擴大私有制經濟的範圍，同時嚴厲的政治也有所放鬆。比如2010年以後古巴人終於被允許擁有手機。與美國關係的正常化既是政治上和緩的體現，也將有助於經濟改革的推行。

三是國民的強烈需求。在古巴革命、美古交惡以來，家庭的分離、政治的高壓和生活的困頓已使無數古巴人使用各種手段偷渡前往佛羅里達。古巴和美國關係的正常化對解決上述問題多有裨益。民調顯示超過九成古巴人贊同兩國關係的正常化。因此當古美關係解凍的時候古巴人幾乎是喜大普奔。

因此，美古兩國的關係正常化並不「突然」，這是雙方發展的必然結果；何況奧巴馬早在2014年12月就曾放言推進兩國關係的正常化。

先答到這裡，如果感興趣的人多，鴨先知稍後可以補充一些兩國關係正常化之後的預測：畢竟兩國就算不記舊仇，卻難冰釋前嫌，半個世紀的斷交留下的一籮筐問題，仍然要在漫長的時間中慢慢消解。

首先，美古斷交是1961年而不是1953年。其次，美古恢復邦交並不突然，這是90年蘇東巨變以後，大小卡長期努力的結果，而且不只是與美國。先寫背景，古共建國後一心一意跟著蘇聯老大哥，蘇聯給古巴提供經濟和軍事援助。所以雖然美國對古巴實行封鎖，古巴人民還是能維持基本的生存。可是古巴瞎了一輩子，連大哥也沒看準，蘇聯解體了。蘇聯解體後古巴沒有了外面的援助，而且只和索馬利亞這等小散遠進行有限的貿易，人民生活在水深火熱之中。這時大卡菲德爾－卡斯特羅集中生智，計上心頭，大卡採取的最重要的做法就是宗教外交。當時古巴有40％的人民信仰天主教，少數信仰基督新教、古巴非洲教、猶太教等宗教。而建國初期古巴是沒有宗教自由的，這也遭到巴拿馬運河對岸小夥伴的嫌棄。宗教外交第一步：允許宗教信仰自由。大卡翻爛了馬克思和耶穌的書，終於發現馬克思主義和基督教（廣義）都是代表被剝削階級的利益。所以隨後就允許宗教信仰者加入古共，這是一個很大的突破，雖然到目前古巴89萬黨員中只有2000人不信無神論。第二步：循序漸進擴大外交範圍。古巴首先與巴拿馬運河對岸的多數人民信仰天主教的國家加強往來，然後小卡勞爾－卡斯特羅不遠萬里去梵蒂岡拜訪教皇還邀請老頭子到哈瓦那度假。老頭子的號召力不能小覷，有些專家說美古恢復邦交是老頭子從中調停，這個觀點是合理的但沒有確鑿證據，起到一定作用是一定的。美國看到古巴近幾年也風生水起，冷戰結束後也沒多大利害關係，就恢復邦交了。而且古巴的宗教外交還用在處理其與俄羅斯的事物上。古巴冷戰就欠俄軍事裝備錢，也一直沒還清，俄不想把裝備賣給這個老賴了。小卡聰明，在哈瓦那建了一家東正教教堂，據說是100年來西半球新建的唯一一家看的過去的東正教堂，俄國人民奔走相告，五星好評。也使俄繼續了對古巴武器的貿易。古巴人民應該歡欣，雖然被動，雖然方式奇葩。但是實實在在的使古巴人民在追求人權的路上走了一步，使古巴在全球化的浪潮中漸漸成為一個正常的玩家。

贊同以上所說：1、並不突然，不過以前是鴨子划水下面用力。事實上，今年10月以來，被譽為民主黨「機關報」的《紐約時報》已經連發4篇社論，談對古巴政策必須改變。
2、有多種考慮，地緣方面的，國內政治的，等等。
補充兩點原因：1、現在不僅是對古巴，美國也在和伊朗和談，取消了辛巴威、斐濟等國制裁，基本上對所謂「問題國家」的政策都在轉。
2、現在拉美可不只有古巴一家，左翼國家和思潮還是在持續壯大。所以，今年起，現是克里明確講美國不搞門羅主義了，後是對古巴改變政策。要不然明年美洲峰會在美國開，真有可能一票拉美國家因為封鎖古巴而不去。

1.美：封鎖政策沒有殺死你，繼續堅持封鎖反而讓你不再恐懼我，因此我決定先接近你，影響你，再消滅你。【和平演變】
2.拉丁裔美國人的繁殖能力太強，影響了美國人口結構，Obama此舉也是為了16年黨民主黨在選舉中獲得更多拉丁裔選民的支持【拉選票】
3.中國在加勒比海地區的影響力越來越強，美國不願意因為與古巴的僵局影響到在此地區的主導地位【放著我來】

和前面幾位同學所說的一樣，在我們普通人看來是突然恢復邦交，其實早就有動作。
故事可以從好幾個方面講起。

美國和古巴的恩怨情仇
美國和古巴在歷史上一直糾葛不斷，引用一下英國廣播公司的時間線……因為還要趕論文，大家暫時湊活著看……我先標出重要年份，有時間再翻譯出來。

1898: US declares war on Spain.
1898: US defeats Spain, which gives up all claims to Cuba and cedes it to the US.
1902: Cuba becomes independent with Tomas Estrada Palma as its president. But the Platt Amendment keeps the island under US protection and gives the US the right to intervene in Cuban affairs.
1906-09: Estrada resigns and the US occupies Cuba following a rebellion led by Jose Miguel Gomez.
1909: Jose Miguel Gomez becomes president following elections supervised by the US, but is soon tarred by corruption.
1912: US forces return to Cuba to help put down black protests against discrimination.
1933: Gerardo Machado is overthrown in a coup led by Sergeant Fulgencio Batista.
1934: The US abandons its right to intervene in Cuba"s internal affairs, revises Cuba"s sugar quota and changes tariffs to favour Cuba.
1953: Fidel Castro leads an unsuccessful revolt against the Batista regime.
1956: Castro lands in eastern Cuba from Mexico and takes to the Sierra Maestra mountains where, aided by Ernesto "Che" Guevara, he wages a guerrilla war.
1958: The US withdraws military aid to Batista.
1959: Castro leads a 9,000-strong guerrilla army into Havana, forcing Batista to flee. Castro becomes prime minister.
April 1959: Castro meets US Vice President Richard Nixon on an unofficial visit to Washington. Nixon afterwards wrote that the US had no choice but to try to "orient" the leftist leader in the "right direction".
1960: All US businesses in Cuba are nationalised without compensation; US breaks off diplomatic relations with Havana and imposes a trade embargo in response to Castro"s reforms.
1961: US backs an abortive invasion by Cuban exiles at the Bay of Pigs; Castro proclaims Cuba a communist state and begins to ally it with the USSR.
1961: The CIA begins to make plans to assassinate Castro as part of Operation Mongoose. At least five plans to kill the Cuban leader were drawn up between 1961 and 1963.
1962: Cuban missile crisis ignites when, fearing a US invasion, Castro agrees to allow the USSR to deploy nuclear missiles on the island. The US released photos of Soviet nuclear missile silos in Cuba - triggering a crisis which took the two superpowers to the brink of nuclear war.
It was subsequently resolved when the USSR agreed to remove the missiles in return for the withdrawal of US nuclear missiles from Turkey.
1980: Around 125,000 Cubans, many of them released convicts, flee to the US, when Castro temporarily lifted restrictions.
1993: The US tightens its embargo on Cuba, which introduces some market reforms in order to stem the deterioration of its economy. These include the legalisation of the US dollar, the transformation of many state farms into semi-autonomous co-operatives, and the legalisation of limited individual private enterprise.
1994: Cuba signs an agreement with the US according to which the US agrees to admit 20,000 Cubans a year in return for Cuba halting the exodus of refugees.
1996: US trade embargo made permanent in response to Cuba"s shooting down of two US aircraft operated by Miami-based Cuban exiles.
1998: The US eases restrictions on the sending of money to relatives by Cuban Americans.
Nov 1999: Cuban child Elian Gonzalez is picked up off the Florida coast after the boat in which his mother, stepfather and others had tried to escape to the US capsized. A huge campaign by Miami-based Cuban exiles begins with the aim of preventing Elian from rejoining his father in Cuba and of making him stay with relatives in Miami.
June 2000: Elian allowed to rejoin his father in Cuba after prolonged court battles.
June 2001: Five Cubans convicted in Miami and given long sentences for spying for the Cuban government. The case of the Cuban Five becomes rallying cry for the Havana government.
Nov 2001: US exports food to Cuba for the first time in more than 40 years after a request from the Cuban government to help it cope with the aftermath of Hurricane Michelle.
Jan 2002: Prisoners taken during US-led action in Afghanistan are flown into Guantanamo Bay for interrogation as al-Qaeda suspects.
May 2002: US Under Secretary of State John Bolton accuses Cuba of trying to develop biological weapons, adding the country to Washington"s list of "axis of evil" countries.
May 2002: Former US President Jimmy Carter makes landmark goodwill visit which includes tour of scientific centres, in response to US allegations about biological weapons. Carter is first former or serving US president to visit Cuba since 1959 revolution.
Oct 2003: US President George Bush announces fresh measures designed to hasten the end of communist rule in Cuba, including tightening a travel embargo to the island, cracking down on illegal cash transfers, and a more robust information campaign aimed at Cuba. A new body, the Commission for Assistance to a Free Cuba, is created.
Feb 2006: A propaganda war breaks out in Havana as President Castro unveils a monument which blocks the view of illuminated messages - some of them about human rights - displayed on the US mission building.
Aug 2006: US President George W Bush - in his first comments after President Castro undergoes surgery and hands over power to his brother Raul - urges Cubans to work for democratic change.
Dec 2006: The largest delegation from the US Congress to visit Cuba since the 1959 revolution goes to Havana. Jeff Flake, a Republican congressman heading the 10-member bipartisan delegation, said he wanted to launch a "new era in US-Cuba relations", but the group is denied a meeting with Raul Castro.
July 2007: Acting leader Raul Castro again indicates he may be open to a warming of relations with the US. He offers to engage in talks, but only after the 2008 US presidential election.
Feb 2008: Raul Castro officially takes over as president. Washington calls for free and fair elections, and says its trade embargo will remain.
4 Nov 2008: Barack Obama is elected US president.
Dec 2008: New poll suggests a majority of Cuban-Americans living in Miami want an end to the US embargo against Cuba.
April 2009: President Obama lifts restrictions on family travel and remittances to Cuba.
Dec 2009: US citizen Alan Gross detained in Cuba accused of spying for Washington.
Nov 2010: American Ballet Theater visits Cuba for first time in 50 years, the latest in number of cultural exchanges.
Oct 2011: Convicted Cuban agent Rene Gonzalez is freed as scheduled from a Florida jail. Gonzalez is part of a group known as the Cuban Five, who were given long terms in 2001 in the US after being convicted of spying. Havana has repeatedly called for the men to be freed.
Dec 2011: The US again calls for the release of Alan Gross, an American who is serving 15 years in a Cuban jail for taking internet equipment into the country. Cuba"s refusal to free him has frozen relations for months.
Sep 2012: Cuba suggests it is ready to negotiate with Washington on finding a solution to the Gross case.

在古巴革命之前，和其他所謂的香蕉共和國一樣，古巴的經濟利益被美國資本家所壟斷和榨取，而大量古巴人民生活在失業和貧困中。古巴名義上是個主權獨立的國家，事實上卻處處被美國操控。（咦，怎麼感覺有點像解放前的中國？）其實古巴的獨裁者巴蒂斯塔也很有意思，他生於貧苦家庭，發動中士政變後在幕後操縱政權，發布過資產階級進步性質的憲法，最終卻因為獨裁統治被卡斯特羅領導的古巴革命趕到了美國。而古巴革命，如Bejarano所說

The Cuban revolution, led by Fidel Castro, was directed not
only against Fulgencio Batista, but also against the old regime, in which
American influence was dominant.

卡斯特羅領導的古巴革命，並不只是反對富爾亨西奧·巴蒂斯塔，而且是反對美國掌控下的舊政權。
深以為然。
其實從這裡就可以看出，古巴和美國一開始並不是意識形態的衝突，更多是古巴人民對自由的追求和美國維持利益和霸權的衝突（正經臉）。比如最早1960年古巴將美國在古巴資產國有化導致美國終止與古巴的外交關係，還CIA還一度試圖排僱傭兵推翻古巴的革命政權（當時還不是社會主義）。史稱「豬灣入侵」。這次失敗的准軍事行動造成古巴完全倒向蘇聯陣營，並引發後面的古巴導彈危機等一系列事件。古巴和美國相愛相殺的故事就此展開……咦，好像沒什麼展開得了……就是撕逼撕逼，制裁製裁……直到近幾年才開始悄悄進行談判。

古巴裔美國人和美國的古巴政策
古巴裔美國人是一個獨特的群體，其中有早期被驅逐出古巴或者主動離開古巴的資本家和異見分子，也有近些年因為經濟問題偷渡到美國謀生的普通古巴人。

---------------------------------分割線--------------------------
不行，今天有點累了，先寫到這，有時間再更。
先把我用到的一部分參考資料放在下面。

Carmon, M. 2015, 『Obama』s
new Cuba policy: McDonald"s in Old Havana?』, Cuba』s Socialists Renewal, viewed on 18 May 2015,

http://www.letcubalive.org/uploads/5/9/9/0/5990776/obama_policy_m_cameron.pdf

Dorning M. and
Keane A. G. 2014, 『Obama Acts to End More Than Half-Century U.S.-Cuba
Estrangement』, Bloomberg Business, 18 December, viewed 10 May 2015,

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-12-17/obama-to-announce-u-s-cuba-relations-shift-as-gross-is-released

Garcia M. C. 1998,
『Hardliners v. 「Dialogueros」: Cuban Exile Political Groups and United
States-Cuba Policy』, Journal of American
Ethnic History, vol. 17, no. 4, pp. 3-28. Viewed on 17 May 2015,

JSTOR: Journal of American Ethnic History, Vol. 17, No. 4 (Summer, 1998), pp. 3-28

LeoGrande W. M.
2015, 『Normalizing US–Cuba relations:

escaping the
shackles of the past』, International
Affairs, vol. 91, no. 3, pp.473–488, viewed on 17 May 2015,

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1468-2346.12282/epdf

Mendes I. 2015, 『Mending bridges: the Unfinished

Business of the US
and Cuba』, Policy Brief, vol. 5, no. 06,
viewed on 18 May 2015,

http://bricspolicycenter.org/homolog/uploads/trabalhos/6909/doc/2132751521.pdf

Putnam R. D. 1988,
『Diplomacy and Domestic Politics: The Logic of Two Level Game Theory』, International Organization, vol. 43, no.
2, pp. 427-60.

Roy J. 1997,
The Helms-Burton Law: Development, Consequences, and Legacy for
Inter-American and European-US Relations』, Journal
of Interamerican Studies and World Affairs, vol. 39, no. 3, pp. 77–108,
viewed on 17 May 2015,

The Helms-Burton Law: Development, Consequences, and Legacy for Inter-American and European-US Relations

Siddiqui S. 2015,
『Obama to remove Cuba from list of state sponsors of terrorism』, the Guardian, 15
April 2015, viewed on 18 May 2015,

Obama to remove Cuba from list of state sponsors of terrorism

Suchlicki J. 2015,
『From Havana to Tehran: The strange love affair between a theocracy and an
atheistic dictatorship』, Foreign Policy, 27 March, viewed on 16 May 16, 2015,

From Havana to Tehran

Sweig, J. E. 2007,
『Fidel』s Final Victory』, Foreign Affairs,
vol. 86, no. 1, pp.39-56, viewed on 18 May 2015,

http://cocolog-yoshi.cocolog-nifty.com/blog/files/FoAf0701_02Cuba.pdf

是去年三月吧，經濟學諾獎得主Gary Becker和美國聯邦上訴法官兼芝加哥大學法學院教授的Richard Posner，在其網站上各自掛出一篇關於質疑並呼籲解除對古巴貿易管制的文章。裡面說的很清楚了，有心人可以看看。
以下是全文：
The Becker-Posner Blog

The Embargo of Cuba: Time to Go- Becker
The US embargo of Cuba began in 1960, a year after Fidel Castro turned this island toward communism. It was extended to food and medicines in 1962, the same year as the showdown with Russia over the installation of missiles there. The embargo has prevented American companies from doing business with Cuba, and discouraged tourism to Cuba. The American government also tried with quite limited success to prevent other countries from trading with Cuba.
In general economic embargoes are undesirable because they interfere with free trade among countries. Yet a case could be made for an embargo against Cuba. Castro not only allowed Russian missiles to be installed in Cuba, just 90 miles from Florida, but was also actively trying to interfere in other countries by sending troops and so-called advisers. The aim of the embargo was to impose economic hardship on Cuba that would force Castro to drop these international actions, and possibly even lead to the toppling of his government and the end of communism in Cuba. Castro did stop his international adventurism, but he and communism remained firmly entrenched for decades.
The Cuban economy has done badly, and has fallen behind the economies of many comparable countries. For example, in 1959, Cuban per capita income was above that of Taiwan, another island close by a hostile super power. Cuba』s two main exports were sugar and tobacco, while Taiwan』s were sugar and rice. At that time, Taiwan began its transition toward a private market system and globally oriented economy, whereas Cuba abolished private property and the government took charge of the economy with central planning and central organization. Since then Cuba』s economy has fallen far behind Taiwan』s as Taiwan has taken advantage of world markets to grow at a remarkable rate while Cuba has chugged along with very slow growth. Cuba』s per capital income is a fifth or less of that of Taiwan. Sugar and tobacco remain important exports of Cuba, while Taiwan has shifted toward complex electronic and industrial goods. Fidel Castro was a charismatic leader who mesmerized audiences with his oratory, but he utterly failed to deliver the goods to the Cuban people.
Cuba』s weak economic performance is in small part due to the embargo since the US would be a natural important trading partner for Cuba, as it is for other nearby Caribbean countries, and for Mexico and other Central American countries. Yet communism itself is the main cause of its poor economic performance. One can say this with complete confidence since communism has utterly failed as an economic system in every country where it has been tried.
One only need look at the difference between the economies of South and North Korea for a clear natural experiment on the disadvantages of an economic system with no private property and central direction of the economy. Prior to the Korean War, the backward part of the Korean economy was in the south and the advanced industrial part was in the north. The roles are now radically reversed since the South and its private enterprise system is far ahead economically (and in other dimensions as well) of the North.

In the last decade, with Fidel Castro ailing and his brother Raul taking over leadership, the Cuban government has begun to realize what the Cuban people long ago learned, that communism is responsible for the vast majority of its economic weakness. Despite the opposition of hardliners, Cuba is allowing very small-scale private firms in retailing and other sectors, and houses can be bought and sold to a limited extent. These are only baby steps away from communism, but they put Cuba on a slippery slope toward a more market-based economy that will be hard to reverse.
Free trade is a principle that the United States should follow except in extraordinary circumstances. Cuba under Fidel, especially in his early days, may have provided enough of these circumstances to justify the embargo. Since Cuba no longer provides any significant threat to American interests, there is no sense in continuing to punish the Cuban people with an embargo on trade, nor to provide excuses to its leaders for the poor performance of the Cuban economy.
It is time to end the embargo on the export and import of goods and services between the United States and Cuba The Cuban people will benefit almost immediately. This may just be the time when such a move puts added pressure on the Cuban government to end its failed experiment with communism.

End the Cuban Embargo—Posner
I agree with Becker that we should end the embargo. It was first imposed in 1960, two years after Castro took power, and strengthened after the Cuban missile crisis in 1962, and thereafter modified from time to time—and recently somewhat relaxed, so that today in fact we have several billions of dollars in trade with Cuba each year.
Communist Cuba in Castro』s heyday, before the collapse of the Soviet Union followed by the rapid collapse of communism in all countries except North Korea—and Cuba—was, even apart from the missile crisis, an active although not dangerous enemy of the United States, supporting and fomenting communist subversion against a variety of nations some of them allies of the United States. But the embargo was never much more than an annoyance to Cuba, because the embargo was not joined by other nations. And it is not as if the United States were the only source of a raw material or manufactured good essential to the Cuban economy. Or that the United States were the sole destination for goods produced by Cuba that Cuba had to export in order to obtain foreign currency. Cuba』s principal exports were and are sugar and tobacco. When the United States as part of the embargo stopped importing these products from Cuba, it increased its imports of them from elsewhere, which meant that other nations that produced those goods diverted some of their output to the United States. The countries they had been buying sugar and tobacco from these other exporting countries had either to pay a higher price to them so that they would not divert output to the United States—or buy from Cuba. So the embargo closed one destination for Cuban exports, the United States, but opened up others.
Apparently the embargo had some small negative effects on the Cuban economy, but one imagines that its major effect was actually to bolster Castro by giving him an excuse for the awful performance of the Cuban economy—the U.S. embargo. The true cause of that awful performance was communism; for we know from the economic performance of the other communist countries, before communism collapsed almost everywhere, that communist economies, by suppressing the operation of free markets in goods and services, are grossly inefficient. Castro hurt Cuba with his policies, but actually helped the United States by impelling the emigration of many of Cuba』s ablest, most energetic citizens to the United States.
But to all this the embargo was and continues to be almost completely irrelevant. Its persistence is probably owed largely to the political influence of Cuban-Americans, who will do anything to hurt Castro』s regime and whoe live (and vote) mainly in Florida, where they form a significant electoral bloc. The nation』s fourth largest state by population, Florida is the most important swing state in the American electoral system.

說多一句，貝克爾已於去年五月過世，但形骸化滅，而他的思想還在。

沒有人提美帝在中東已經快被擠走了
當然說的難聽點是擠走說的好聽點就是戰略防禦
說白了中東點了一把火沒能力去滅了乾脆你們玩吧我回我後花園了
反正一個南美真開發起來不比中東差
而且南美清一色天主教比穆斯林容易交流

因為美國出現了一位黑人總統，梵蒂岡有了一個拉丁裔的教皇

怕伊斯蘭化吧

背叛革命理想的燈塔熄滅倒塌，美帝國主義的走狗多了一坨，美帝國主義野心狼的貧民窟更加暗無天日

1、並不突然，奧巴馬以來，一直緩和雙方關係
2、基於美國地緣利益的重新考慮

這些有的沒的地緣政治意識形態歷史更迭固然十分重要，然而我覺得關鍵會不會是古巴北岸線附近發現了大儲量石油吶

交流總比絕交好。
政治家想絕交，老百姓想交流。

奧觀海想自己總得在歷史上留一筆吧不然8年總統白乾了

為了讓偷渡來得更加猛烈些。。民主黨好算計。，

美國古巴，美國伊朗改善關係，目標都是戰略東移，把目標對準中國，將會採用方方面面的手段和方法削弱和損害中國。
天津大學教授被美國誘捕，temple大學教授被指控，被指控的學術活動都已經發生好幾年了，在三五年前這種指控都是很難想像的，美國的各種動作已經開始了。

我扁北極熊的時候給我老實點