汽油推動的汽車會在 2036 年完全消失嗎？
若作此假設，相關行業應如何應對？
《未來50年》的作者理查德-沃森(Richard
Waston)發表《絕跡時間表》，大膽預測撰寫博客的行為會在2022年絕跡、汽油推動的汽車會在2036年完全消失。
百年前，馬車是日用品，汽車是奢侈品；
今天，汽車是日用品，馬車是奢侈品；
今天，電動車是奢侈品，內燃機車是日用品；
以後，電動車是日用品，內燃機車是奢侈品。
這些東西都沒有消失，只是歷史沒有停止腳步而已。
當今意義上的汽車大約在什麼時候退出歷史舞台？ - 無往的回答黑一下作者吧，《未來50年》翻譯前的原著是&
Future Files: A Brief History of the Next 50 Years: Richard Watson: 9781857885347: Amazon.com: Books
懶得翻譯原文，自己當英文閱讀練習吧。第一篇是說，這本書很幽默，可以博君一笑。第二篇毫不留情地把作者和書一起批判了一遍。
總之，意思是說，他的內容不用太當真。
Editorial Reviews
From Publishers Weekly
Starred Review. Cheaper than a crystal ball and twice as fun, this book by futurist and web creator Watson examines what "someday" could be like, based on the five key trends of ageing; power shift to the East; global connectivity; the "GRIN" technologies of Genetics, Robotics, Internet, and Nanotechnology; environmental concerns, and 50 less general but equally influential developments that will radically alter human life by the year 2050. Watson gently scoffs at Jetsons-like wishful-thinking technology and flying cars; instead he predicts the fanciful (mindwipes, stress-control clothing, napcaps that induce sleep) and the useful (devices to harness the sea to generate energy; self-repairing car paint; retail technology that helps us shop, based on past buying habits; hospital plasters that monitor vital signs). In between the fun and frivolity, he prognosticates the frightening: the "extinction" of individual ugliness and free public spaces; the creation of hybrid humans; a society made of people who are incapable of the tiniest tasks; and insects that carry wireless cameras to monitor our lives. Part Jules Verne, part Malcolm Gladwell, Watson has a puckish sense of humor and his book is a thought-provoking, laughter-inducing delight.
Copyright ? Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.
From School Library Journal
On a less than promising note, Watson, a self-proclaimed futurist writer and speaker, starts by back-peddling and reframing his book as a survey of 200 trends that will affect the next 42 years (presumably in order to go up to the half-century point). He has gleaned these emerging patterns from immersing himself in the popular media, a method he defends as a discipline with an everyman, anti-intellectual appeal. His predictions run from mundane (depleted oil reserves will be a problem) to trite (science will be the new religion) to facetious (memories will be erasable with a premoistened towelette called a mindwipe). He fails to provide facts, citations, or even arguments to support his meandering diatribe. One proclamation follows another, leading to an ambivalent conclusion that the future may or may not be a nice place to live. Each section ends with a postcard from the future that is apparently meant to provide comic relief. Unfortunately, more often than not they simply make obvious observations in a snide and petulant voice. Perhaps tellingly, Watson suggests "Further Reading" in lieu of citations or a bibliography. Not recommended.—Robert Perret, Univ. of Idaho, Moscow
Copyright ? Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.
除非電池技術出現斷層式飛躍發展否則不會。
PS（除非電動車補充能量（充電時間）速度超過汽油機，電池單位質量內的容量變大3倍，出現這種對汽油機致命威脅的發展否則不會）
未來仍就是混動的天下，混動至少還能用30年我同意@無往 的說法
另外補充一句
電動車成為日用品後，隨著車聯網的普及與電動車的整合，以後人類駕車將成為奢侈。
電動車＋自動駕駛將成為標配！
汽車充電始終是個無法解決的問題
應該不會這麼快。除非其他能源的汽車在技術上有巨大的革新。
主要還得看新能源的發展程度和經濟效益，否則誰說淘汰都不可能。
你要知道美國現在還有不少80年代甚至70年代的老爺車在跑
另，汽車老大豐田下一代的重點是氫燃料車
題主的問題有問題，2036年汽油推動的汽車不可能消失，就像百年前的馬車和蒸汽機車，這些東西可能推出歷史舞台，但仍然是少數人的玩具。
而且推動汽油車消失的關鍵因素電池問題依舊存在，續航及高昂的價格是制約電動車發展的關鍵因素，而其他新能源車又因能源供應而難以普及，而電動車的普及要在電池問題或續航問題解決之後才能普及，包括充電設備的解決。而在一些地區和工作場所依舊需要汽油車，如一些不穩定地區（充電時充電線沒了），一些特殊場所（科研車隊需要長途跋涉好幾千公里）等。
汽油車依舊有存在的意義，所以消失很難，但隨著歷史的發展，其它的能源車會越來越多。
很有可能。天然氣石油氣和各種柴油什麼的都不錯，而且未來的汽車很可能用上了天然氣燃料電池或者燃氣輪機電傳動這種類似船用動力設備一樣效率更高的內燃機動力系統。
好吧其實我在摳「汽油」這兩個字。
不過，用燃料驅動的汽車應該是未來，不會消失。
拿電動車來比賽跟玩電動遙控車有什麼區別？內燃機才是大人的玩具。
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